Shareholding Pattern has been released.
Few Observations
-
No. of MF in Sept. quarter 42 (7.44% Holding)
No. of MF in Dec. quarter 50 (8.73% Holding) -
FPI Holdings reduced from (11.29% to 9.72%)
-
Holding of retail Individual with investment of more than Rs. 200000 increased from (8.59% to 11.03%)
2 Relevant news
-
Brokerage Initiations:
-UBS initiates Equitas tgt 250
-UBS initiates Ujjivan tgt 575
-Edelweiss Magma Fincorp with tgt 238.
Can you please provide the supporting link/report of UBS initiation on Ujjivan ? Will be really helpful to see how they are seeing Rs 575 target.
I do not have the report. Took the information from this link https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/01/17/stocks-to-watch-adani-power-pnb-housing-finance-tcs-yes-bank
Don’t know about TA, but 3rd quarter results and Bandhan Bank impending IPO by April can trigger short term rally in the stock.
Status- Invested at avg price of 345 with 12% of portfolio strictly for long term.
Any idea whats this-
Can you please let me which s/w or website can be used to arrive at this chart.
Its from Zerodha Kite
Thanks @abhishkjain2626 , is it exclusively for zerodha customers or anyone can access Zerodha kite?
Results:
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/4c371def-896a-4c56-afa1-4d0b0b4433a0.pdf
Overall good results.
- Net Profit at 29 Crore is the highest since Demonetisation
- GNPA down from 4.99% to 4.24% and NNPA reduced from 1.38% to 1.04% QoQ. Both good signs of revival
- Collection efficiency as well at 99.7% for loans disbursed since Jan '17.
- Provisions for the quarter as well is the lowest since demonetisation
- Disbursements up 9.21% QoQ and 28.35% YoY
- NIM at 11.08% against 10.20% in Q2
- Some older loans at higher interest paid off to help improve NIM
Seems to be showing signs of coming back to life since demonetisation.
Did any one attend the concall today? Would be very helpful to understand management commentary and guidance for Fy19. In particular interest if the asset quality - when do they expect to bring down the NPAs to pre-demonetization levels across the whole book.
Research Reports with result analysis-
-
Edelweiss - https://www.edelweiss.in/ewwebimages/WebFiles/Research/c2fcf7fc-35ed-415b-85ea-f8852ec2d699.pdf
-
HDFC- https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.docs/Ujjivan%20-%203QFY18%20-%20HDFC%20sec-201802060911062006384.pdf
-
Nirmal Bang - https://www.nirmalbang.com/Upload/Ujjivan%20Financial%20Services%20-%203QFY18%20Result%20Update-6%20Feb%202018.pdf
Con-call
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/383873b9-7001-45a5-aaa6-41382423c8fa.pdf
As per the Management, Ujjivan expects to grow at 25% to 30%, have a steady state RoA of 2.5% and RoE of 16% to 18%. Looking at these numbers what would be a fair valuation? Would it be fair to give it a P/B of more than 2?
Indusind is commanding p/b ratio of 5-6 with roa of less than 2 and roe of 15-16%.
I think Ujjivan management is forecasting growth a bit modestly. Between 2012-2016, AUM grew at 50% CAGR. once this demo mess is cleared, they can easily grow at more than 30% cagr for quite some time, given there is no such crisis again
Prior to demonization, they generated ROA of 2.9%, 3.4%, 2.5% and 3.7% from 2013 to 2016 (source- AR FY’16). I think, it will reach at same level once profitability is restored. Having said that, ROE is always on the lower side due to modest leverage (less than 4). It would be interesting to see how much leverage bank would be comfortable with. Even in last quarter, they reduced debt as they were able to garner more deposits to keep debt to equity around 4.
Thanks,
Mayank