Trending Sectors for 2016?

Dear Kunal

What attracts you to Pennar, I am also bullish on the same, My take is the clarity on four divisions and value added products which i think may play out going fwd along with improved focus on each of them. Also its the holdco of two good subsidiaries which in itself is valued almost at par with the parent. seems to be a good value/growth mix!!

looking at the above data it trully looks like a secular bull market
a few sectors which look good my 2bits

Rubber based themes (Tyres, Retreading) connected to the growth in logistics & transportation, CV sales & maintenance- input cost of rubber is down & so is petroleum,

lately with all the noise on environment -natural, eco-freindly & abundantly available materials should be in demand - Jute
todays ET says India exported $297mil of Jute for 14-15- looks like a lot of space to grow with India & Bangladesh controlling the entire market

One easy way to figure out the sector to bet on is to look for stocks/sectors where new 52 week or preferably all time highs are made esp during bear markets and due to the bear market stocks correct and are consolidating at some level.

Few stocks that come to mind are kabra extrusion (all time high), praj inds (52 week high), good luck steels (all time high) , Jagran (made a new 52 week high today amidst correction), etc. All these stocks made their respective all time or 52 weeks highs and are now consolidating near to their support levels. One of the important support levels in case of stocks which have taken out their earlier all time highs (or usually multi year highs) is in the vicinity of the earlier highs. e.g Kabra extrusion is a stock which had posted its all time high of 103.40 in 2010 underwent sharp correction and after many years broke past the level of 103.40 and posted a new high of 119 in Sep 2015. Now stock has started cosolidating closer to its 50 day moving avg. On panic days it might try to get support at around its 200 day moving avg. These are classical supports described. There could be other ways to detect support levels like retracement levels etc but those would be too complicated. To me what this chart is trying to tell me is that after many years there is likely to be a change in the fortunes of this company for the better. (how it pans out needs to be seen but this could be an example which could be observed and something can be learned out of it.)

I read this philosophy in two books … one in Basant Maheshwari’s The Thoughtful Investor and other in Ivanov’s The Next Apple.

This should not be construed as any recommendation but as a tool to try and find out possible winners.


Hi Hitesh,

I was looking for 52 week highs and this one stands out - Ester Industries. Share has risen with high volumes. What puzzles me though is the valuations, which don’t make any sense at all. Market cap of Rs 840 crore vs 1H2016 Net profit of Rs 7.81 crore.

Considering this, is it a good time to look at the sector that includes Jindal Polyfilms? (available at PE of just 10 times). Chart below:

Disclosure: Invested in Ester Industries

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Yes ester does seem to defy valuations.

Best net profit figures in last ten years as per screener data is 129 crores in 2011. Based on that also its at around 6-7 times.

And last 3 quarters is nothing to write home about. But thats how cyclicals typically behave. From extreme pessimism to extreme optimism.

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I am sharing trending graphs for 90 sectors. Can you guys let me know which are the top trends moving up !!

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Can you tell us time period between which the graph is plotted?
Telecom cables, Fibers and plastic, Commodity chemicals, Textile all did very well in 2015 but your graph’s trend is opposite.

What comes under other telecom services ? How can it be 730% in 2012?
Similarly year 2012 and 2013 for non alcoholic beverages?

One of the option - → Markets → Equity → (Live Reports) → Industry Watch
Select the sector from drop down list. Press “Submit”. Voila.



Disclosure: I have made a purchase in titagarh today @ 120.80…Will buy more on dips…hence my views have a bullish bias…the stock is going up inspite of the recent interview of the mngt that they will be focussing more on streams other than railway contracts which used to be 80% of the topline

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Revisiting the list with which the thread was created:

Continued Boom in 2016 too:
Sugar = 96%

Continued Moderate Performance in 2016:
LCV&HCV = 10%
Auto Ancillaries = 7%
Glass = 12%
Packaging = 9%
Aquaculture= 11%
Ceramic/Marble/Granite/Sanitare= 14%
Rice = 10%

Booming in 2015 Fell Apart in 2016:
Cable= 6%
Telecom Infrastructure = 2%
Jewelley = -13%
IT Hardware = -11%
Textile/cotton spinning= -30%
Breweries = -31 %
Plastic = -22%
Pharma = -18%

Disappointing in 2015 , Continued disappointing in 2016:
Courier and logistics = 4%
Castings & Forgings = -4%
2-weelers = -4%

Disappointing in 2015 , Turned Around in 2016:
agrochemical = 30%
cement = 36%
HomeLoan = 20%
Paints & Varnishes = 39%

Looking at 3-5 year window, I am still bullish on Breweries, Plastics and Pharma, Packaging and look at these corrections as buying opportunities.


Hi All,

Can we try to revise this list for this year?

Here are my picks:

Sectors on upswing:

  1. Infra: specifically Rail infra
  2. auto and auto ancilliaries
  3. Capital goods
  4. Hotel and tourism
  5. Agri products

Sectors not in favour:

  1. Pharma - still not out of the woods
  2. telecom- price war still on
  3. hfc

Please add yours. Also, if you have access to some sector reports kindly share.

Thanks and regards,

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Wind energy is the turnaround sector for fy19