Add Bliss GVS to the above list. Post correction at PE of 5, and div-yield of 2.5% it also looks good.
DLF, the big daddy of real estate seems like a good contra bet especially on dips towards 250. cmp 270. Company seems to be doing some right things after a long long time focussing on reducing debt by getting rid of non core assets like aman resorts and the mumbai land which they sold to lodha developers.
technically on weekly line charts there seems to be a double bottom confirmed with 250 likely to act as support on dips. Targets seem to be 320 plus.
Looking at market weakness it makes sense to watch the 250 levels closely and buy nearer to it or lower esp on panics and dips.
disc: no holdings but on watchlist.
What abt Kajaria Ceramics at PE of 12 ? Indias no 1 ceramics co with big brand , huge size of opportunity, laying of marble like tiles in 2 days instead of marble n new advancements in wall tiles which obviates painting for a long time.
Cairn India available at PE of 5 with aggressive Anil agarwal at helm n production doubling staring in face?
Agree about both the picks. Can even be good long term bets.
But āHazaron khwahishen aisi ki Har khwahish pe dum nikleā
Lots of stocks esp in midcaps which have corrected look like good buys but overall markets seem to be quite weak and one doesnt know how low these stocks will go.
United Phosphorous with nice numbersā¦
hitesh/donald/ayush/subhash
and other fellow boarders . will voltas fit this space as the sales more or less are growing with revenues more than 5000 crores . mcap 2700 crores. with the fall in copper prices even a percent increase in npm leads to additional 55 crores to the bottom line . nil debt ā¦good trustworthy nameā¦murthy ad campaignā¦over 5-10 years the company has been managing 6-7 percent npm and is currently quoting at 5 year low and bottom of trading range of 150-75.
negatives: increased competition in the space like godrejā¦panasonic lg samsung ā¦intense competition.
regards
divyansh
disc: initiated posn at 84
It is worth mentioning that Subashās basket selection provided 200% return (from 18Mar, 2013 till date)
Subash suggested Basket Portfolio on 18Mar, 2013
Caplin point lab, Rs software, Aarti Drugs, Granules, Orbit Exports, Somany Ceramics, Gujarat Automotive gears, Bliss GVS
His portfolio went through bearing phase from March to Aug 2013 like all others. I found some of the common elements of his selection below
Low PE high growth, High ROE, High dividend yield, good past 1-2 performance (before March 2013)
I noted that other members selections also provided significant gain but most of them had speculative stocks in their basket hence nowhere near to 200% basket return like Subash.
So this suggest us to dig further into similar blend of business available today.
Kunal
Hi,
Good to see revival here.
With a sharp decline in the small/mid cap space, I think lot of mis-pricings will stand up but it may be a time to also focus on high quality stocks going through temporary pains. These will be the real multibaggers.
On the short term opportunities (with good long term fundamentals), we are working on Lumax Auto Tech, MPS, Kovai Medical, Canfin Homes, Indag etc.
Views Invited
Ayush
Thanks for reviving this long forgotten yet v informative thread.
Omkar Speciaility
MBL Infra
Welspun
There is no such thing as risk free returns however these have the essential ingredients to go up significantly in next few quarters if all goes well.
Discl. Minor allocation
Chart of cotton pricesā¦up ~40% from last yearā¦will this impact textile companies margins in generalā¦SP apparels in particularā¦if yes have somebody done any study on the possible impact
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From DRHP, SP apparels have RM of 40-45% with Fabric, Yarn and Cotton amounting to 40-45% of RM. Assuming half of its is cotton, the cotton linked cost could be 8-9% of Revenue. Since cotton is up by 40% so 3-4% impact on EBITDA margins of 18-20% provided no pass on of costs. Perhaps 20-25% impact at PAT levelsā¦Just some basic calculation with lot of assumptions so not sure of accuracyā¦
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It might not have impacted their 1Q because of inventoryā¦perhaps will affect with lag effect it will hit textile in generalā¦So annualizing 1Q performance might be incorrect
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I see Omkar as one such bets and see 50% upside in net 6-9 months. Once depledging and deleveraging commences which should happen in coming month or two market will have confidence in management and both PE and earnings expansion can happen.
Discl : Invested.
Just checked SP Apparels PPT for the quarterā¦ there was MTM gain of Rs4.8cr ā¦ex that I believe EPS for the quarter would be ~Rs8/shareā¦and their could be further pressure due to cotton prices which have witnessed recent gainā¦But I agree with hrfacebuk that it seems good value proposition if one compares with peers ( I believe Kitex is one )ā¦I donāt know about efficiency gains but then thatās is the positive risk providing more safety marginsā¦
I am betting on the following companies to appreciate by 25% in the next 9 months:
- Tech Mahindra
- Lupin
- Srikalahasti Pipes
- Sintex
- South Indian Bank
- Hindustan Media Ventures
- HCL Tech
- Aurobindo Pharma
- Omkar Special Chemicals
I suggest members give some logic/rationale/thought process when they list their picks in this thread.
Everybody cannot track each and every company. Therefore having some rationale and information would be good while listing the picks. Giving such information also gives readers an opportunity to make up their minds to dig further or to ignore the idea, rather then starting from scratch.
Cheers.
4 Likes
Sorry for not giving an explanation.
I choose companies based on their growth in topline and profit margins and how consistent they are in both those things. I also make sure that the div yield of the company is greater than 1 and PEG of the company is less than 1. If these condition are satisfied then I wait for the stock price to fall below its 30 day moving average. I only buy when the price is below its 30 DMA.
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Deleting my posts on this thread. If you read it earlier, then please ignore them as I think I missed couple of important points in the idea discussed.
Cheers.
My picks would be:
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Visaka Inds - extremly undervalued compared to its peersā¦ Having Decent ratios and good Dividend Yield.
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Torrent Power - Reasonably valued . recent under-performance was due to recent 2 bad qtrsā¦ expecting good performance ahead.
Will posts other picks in next Postsā¦
Earlier I had put up SP Apparels as one of the ideas in this thread, but then I deleted the post on the same day. The reasons were:
-
Reason 1, I choose to not put it here, as this can be speculative in nature because I canāt verify it and therefore will not discuss the same.
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I think in the results there is an ERROR in calculation of FY17 Q1 EPS by the company.
The consolidated results say eps of Rs. 9.58, but it looks like it has been calculated on the basis of pre-issue capital of Rs.17.14 Crs. and not on the basis of post-issue capital of Rs.25 Crs.
I think if calculated on the basis of post-issue capital of Rs. 25 Crs., the Q1 EPS would actually be Rs.6.53 and not Rs.9.58!!! I somehow made the stupid mistake of not seeing this earlier. Please do let me know if I am getting it wrong now. -
In the Q1 results presentation company talks about growth on all fronts (Sales, EBITDA, PBT, PAT, etc,) but doesnāt talk about EPS at all. This didnāt give me a right feeling after knowing other reasons stated above.
Above reasons, when I saw in conjunction mainly with Forex gain of Rs.4+ Crs. in Q1 and pledging of shares by management in favour of State Bank of Mysore (I think 4 million shares pledged), I felt that I have made a mistake in buying this one as an opportunistic bet and therefore decided to withdraw the post and requested members to ignore the same.
I took a judgement call of not posting the above reasons earlier as I wanted to exit my position first and as I knew that there was no possibility of anybody acting as a result of my initiating post because the post was initiated on Saturday. I would have posted the above reasons earlier itself if I had initiated the post at a time during or after which market was open.
Discl: I have fully exited my position in the stock
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