Trust Fintech Concall Highlights:
H1 affected due to elections. Where orders were in the pipeline the numbers look week because the invoices were not paid (due to elections) by the sarkari banks.
H2 outlook is strong. They are planning to begin US operations by end of Jan.
They’ve empanelled with Canara and couple of more banks as well but not actively pursuing it since lack of resource.
Management is expecting 48-64 Cr. Revenue in H2.
New deals -
next week they’ll close a deal with a domestic nbfc.
Main concerns -
Lack of resources to complete the projects in hand. Management said that they are looking to hire people in Mumbai/Pune region.
The valuations still seems to be out of my comfort zone. I was tracking this till March 2024 but their poor order book execution and extremely high trade receivables are the reasons I stopped following TRL completely.
So 400cr order book we can assume by March 2025 which is also 2x of TTM revenue. so it could be a good company going forward. Not sure why they posted weak results in last qtr given they had good orderbook.
Interesting read, since you are investing in SME from 2017, I wanted to know what is your CAGR till now since its almost 8 years.
Also I want to know your exit strategy in case things go downhill, for example in companies that are doing good but a sudden bad result leading to lower circuits. Have you faced looses in such case bcz of low liquidity? How much time does it take for a good company to lose 80% of its value, is there enough time and liquidity to exit?
My XIRR from March 2022 to October 2024 (including mainboard, IPO, etc.) is around 72%. All due to great markets and good interest build up in SME space.
My exit strategy normally relies on half yearly results or some trigger points.
I have two examples for this:
One is Holmarc. I was holding this share I bought it post listing, and recently due to a new thread on Holmarc on Valuepickr itself, the price suddenly rose above my acceptance levels and so I sold it.
Another is Aurangabad distillery. Corporate Governance is an issue still, with excess funds being lent to group company and excise case. This also I was holding for more than 1 year. H2 FY 24 was average with negative view and H1 FY 25 was bad and so I exited it then and there.
With terms of Liquidity, presently you can exit at 5-10% losses immediately. On disastrous results, you can still get away with max 30-35% losses (eg: Sahasra Elec, Techera Eng, Shri Balaji Valves, presstonic).
In terms of low liquidity, these would fall faster than others when broad markets go for a toss. So now-a-days I don’t prefer too high of a position in illiquid stocks. I keep it at max 10% at Portfolio levels.
Losing 80% market cap for a good company looks difficult in present markets and I have not seen such fall in past 2-2.5 years for a good company. Maybe in future, it will happen. You can expect upto 50% fall in an unexpected move in any SME counter.
And with introduction of ESM framework into SMEs, volatility is already reducing. (I have a holding which entered ESM 1 then 2, came back to 1 and again into ESM 2 and is now moving nowhere)
But only one thing I want to highlight is that promoter already did huge ofs of 75 crore rupees at 225 rs per share through IPO and that maybe one of the reasons that promoter buying did not trigger much interest.
Just went through concall , Management didn’t disclosed order book but confident to repeat past trends in H2 (H2 numbers are generally 3x-4x of H1 ), by that company can easily make 25 cr as PAT in H2.
so , company is available at less than 14 PE , FY 25 earning.
About company : Mach Conferences is primarily involved in organizing meetings, incentive tours, conferences, and exhibitions ( Both in and outside India )
Few take away from Concall :
The company has opened a new office in Kolkata to serve as a gateway to the eastern part of India
Mach Conferences is working to penetrate the B2C (business-to-consumer) market, including religious tourism. They are developing a portal called “book my atra” for this purpose
The company’s current working capital availability is 50 crores. The company has stated that their current working capital position is comfortable and they do not foresee any roadblocks in terms of working capital for their current growth plans .
Dis : Not Invested
It’s primarily into hydro - from what I see they are seeing a turnaround in business - close sources advices me that coming 6 months can be game changer
Result is actually very good, ebidta and net profit double, but stock price going down, many big house selling
why don’t know?
How pref 50cr market capitalisation pramoter want pref 25 cr how it’s possible don’t know
