Will this satellite make Tejas’s Direct to Mobile communication possible?
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It is good to note that, Khush Tech, a Tejas partner for D2M mobiles, is exploring online e-commerce distribution opportunities, talking to telecom service providers for bundling D2M mobile devices with their services and creating an integrated UPI payment mechanism on D2M-enabled mobiles, tablets, and laptops. This will definitely increase revenue potential for Tejas Networks in the coming years.
Tejas networks shares have fallen long enough and deep enough for me to finally take some time and do some work on it. Here is my understanding of the situation. I can be completely wrong and the following is certainly not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
Currently, we are seeing 90% yoy revenue fall due to the BSNL work being finished(almost). The market is treating it as a spent force. There is a leadership vacuum since the last CEO resigned. Receivable are very high, which has lead to heavy debt, and interest burden is like 300 crores per year. So, things are bad. On top of it, management is very reticent. They do concalls, but are shy of giving any future numbers. But are there some hopes for the future?
- The inventory is around 2300 crores. However, half of this is almost already sold. The company awaits a PO from BSNL of about 1500 crores. So this inventory can immediately become revenue without any manufacturing lag. We can see a “super quarter” either in Q4 or by Q1 or Q2 of FY27.
- The BharatNet Phase 3 opportunity seems to be significant however no number are available. They have won 7/12 packages of the phase.
- There can be some orders from Vodafone, but that is not certain.
- The trials with Kavach for Indian Railways are going on. There is a good probabability that it would perform the same way they have done in BharatNet. This will be a long term opportunity.
- The D2M is a long shot. I do not think this will be very big or even can be a non-starter. The KhushTech from Korea is an SME, not a big manufacturer. Even the name is very Indian. The policy is not clear on D2M. Same band is sought by telcos for 5 and 6G. I do not think the govt would be able to assign it to TV without a legal challenge. Secondly, nobody wants an antenna coming out of their phone, even in rural areas. There will likely be no mandate on this except in case of emergency broadcasts(still not convinced this would happen).
- They continue to make IP and that I think is a good thing. They have filed for 26 more patents this quarter, mostly for 5g and 6g. Now if the final 6g architecture is aligned to their patents, it opens up the path to them becoming a very profitable firm with licenses. think a mini ZTE or mini Huawei. But that is the moonshot.
- They have also started working with datacenters for switching gear.
They have recently got their 500 crore commercial paper rated, so I think they will be able to continue without dilution.
The way I understand, BSNL is key for 2027 revenue. I think the lack of PO is because they have no budget for 2026. The budget will likely give them space for releasing funds and the PO. BharatNet too will start coming in 2027. I think we should see bigger numbers that in FY24 but lower than in FY25. However in 28-30 is when a new capex cycle in 5G and 6G will perhaps start. That is also the time when BharatNet will end and Kavach cycle should be at peak.
I cannot comment on the valuations as of now and the work continues. However, it looks like we might be trading at 20x 2027 PAT, which seems to be fair value to me. Will try and do some more work on that and post.
Disclosures : I have recently started buying Tejas Network shares, and will perhaps continue to buy in coming weeks. I am biased and above information is not a recommendation. I am not a SEBI registered RA and above is not investment advice.
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Tejas Networks has been on steroids in the last week. For the lows of below Rs 300 it is already breached 480 levels. In the Q3 investor call , they mentioned their intention to go inside the hyperscaler data center ,besides their capability in networking between Data centers. Below is their most recent filing regarding launch of DCI platform in the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona
Please find below a capability comparison (AI generated) between TJ1600 -D3 with other global competitors.
Recently Tejas came out with an announcement of tie up with NEC to supply 5G wireless Massive MIMO radio equipments which is also significant. This too was highlighted by the management in the concall (Iminent tie-ups with NEC and Rakuten).
Attaching a research report (AI generated) , which talks about Tejas with its parallels to networking giants in the US like Arista networks, Ciena (8x in 2yrs ) .
Tejas_Networks_Research_Report_March2026.docx (36.1 KB)
Request domain experts to pitch in and share their views .
Disclosure: Invested recently, have been tracking for many years. Invested previously also and had exited at a loss.
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Although tracking passively, it seems it had fallen badly as no revenue visibility and revenue crashing after earlier orders ran dry…it started rally after NEC news maybe because of some revenue visibility…btw its scary to see such huge fluctuations in revenue. I liked this company brcause of obvious Tata connection, decent tech in hardware infra/digital but last Q revenue huge crash and volatility kept me away from it so far… What are your & others thoughts on this huge revenue volatility and future stability, if any?
I maybe wrong in my assessments & not eligible for any advice.
Sir, kindly share the prompt if possible 
Buying Tejas is a leap of faith based on the capabilities, the patents they hold. How many companies do we have in India with > 65% of workforce in R&D ,meaningful numbers of patents and IPs.
While the market thus far has been valuing it basis the BSNL order or the lack of it , in recent times I feel they are considered as an AI and Data Center proxy . Tejas themselves considers Ceina as their closest business in the wireline space. Ceina is up 8x in last 20 months .
There are not many AI and data Center proxies in India and the obvious ones like MTAR, AEROFLEX , Sterilite etc have run up quite a bit in the last 30 - 45 days .
P.S : Please do your due diligence . This is a high risk bet with high probability of failure as revenues this quarter also might be a washout…
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Sharing the prompt used :
I am researching Tejas networks . As my trusted analyst tracking AI and Data Center business I want you to provide an enterprise grade report on Tejas . The investment thesis hinges on the following : Tejas and its similarity to the US businesses that has experienced multi decadal highs like Juniper networks, Arista networks, Cisco ,Extreme networks etc. I need you to research whether Tejas does have or can build similar capabilities and ride on the data Center tailwinds. Tejas in their recent investor call alluded to the point that thus far they were focused on connecting data Centers externally, now they are focused on networking inside the data Center. I want you to scan the different patents that Tejas holds in wireless and wireline segments and identify if they have any similar capabilities in the pipeline which has made the above mentioned US companies multibaggers, Also do analyse the latest deal with NEC , its scope and scale and possible revenue implications. Please build a financial model incorporating the BSNL order worth 1700 cr, the Bharatnet orders and privet telco capex expansion orders if any. Please discuss the possible risks in the thesis and what all can go wrong, Please build a bull, base and bear case scenario and arrive at a target price for Tejas networks. Please come out with any surprising optionalities not available in public domain from their patents and capabilities . Make learned assumptions if required.
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Tejas bagged order for 4G RAN from a South Asian mobile operator . AI guess is that this could be Bangla operator “Teletalk” or Nepal Telecom. While the revenue implications will be incremental in nature, this gives them an entry into global wireless market opportunities and hence is unique and might open up opportunities in other Asian and African markets.
Disc: Invested
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Source: Investor Deck
Marking their entry into the high-capacity Data Center Interconnect market. DCI equipment is typically higher-margin compared to standard telecom gear.
As India undergoes a data center boom (driven by AI and data localization), the demand for multi-terabit interconnects is expected to skyrocket.
I read more about Dense Wavelength-Division Multiplexing and think Tejas is best fitted to do this.
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Hello,
Great research sir. One question though,
Where do you put that prompt? Is this paid AI or free one. Please enlighten.
Hi,
The output was Claude generated. I find Claude models to be much better than others in research (Only my opinion , I might be wrong). I use a paid version. But I have seen that they don’t discriminate between paid and free in the quality of research reports.
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