Syrma SGS an Export Substitution opportunity in EMS sector

“So, this gives us the confidence that going forward, we would be able to achieve the guided figures and maybe exceed on the margin front. When we started off this year, we had guided a margin of 8%, EBITDA margin of 8%, which was revised to 9%. And now we are confident that we should be able to deliver INR500 crores plus of EBITDA, up from INR324 crores of last year, which would translate into a 55%, 57% growth against a targeted growth of 30%, which we had guided. Going forward, in the coming year, we believe that we are well poised to take sort of capitalize on the emerging opportunities and grow healthy growth rate across all verticals, such that we would be able to deliver a 30% growth rate in the coming year also.

One very positive thing which has happened a couple of days back is the signing of the EU – FTA with the EU Union. And this – in the long run, not in the short run, not maybe in '26, '27, but in the long run, I think it bodes very well for the electronic industry in 2 ways. Some of the end equipment’s, which were attracting duties, have been rationalized or brought down to zero or very low duties, which would enable export of end products from India, automobile as a case. Now if automobiles are exported, the electronics which go into the automobiles, we are there to service that. And for us, it creates a broad ecosystem and an environment, a positive environment that going forward, the trade with EU would see a uprise. We are very strong in EU. We have been exporting for the last 30 years. We have a plant in Germany. So, I believe that in the long run, this thing, the FTA would help us in sustaining the growth of our exports, which, as I just shared, have grown by 45% over 9 months. And I expect that we should be able to cross the INR1,000 crores, maybe close to INR1,100 crores in the coming year. We’re already sitting at INR837 crores of exports. On the domestic front, we – the industries which we service are seeing robust growth, and I expect the growth to continue in the coming year also. As far as the new verticals of projects are concerned, our PCB project is on track. The constructionThe construction has started, and we expect the construction to be completed by about June, July. Parallelly, the equipment’s are being ordered, and we are on track to start the trialproduction by December 26, January, March '27 quarter so that we have a first 1 year of sales from the capacity which we are creating this year. Further capacities will be created based on the demand, which we believe would be very good and we believe that the additional capacities which we have planned should come in sooner than later. We are sort of expanding our footprint in Pune, expansion of capacity in Pune. We have acquired Elcome. The deal has been closed, and we expect that, going forward, the defence vertical would contribute to the bottom line more and to the top line as a proportionate figure, a little lower because it will be about 5%, 6% of overall revenue.On a whole, I think it’s been a very satisfying 9 months on the financial parameters, performance, delivery, everything. One soft thing which we believe is of a very great significance for our company and the country is that we have got the gold rating from EcoVadis which is the ESG compliance, and we are now rated among the top 5% companies globally. Last year, it was a bronze rating. So, we have qualified from bronze to gold. Some of those customers are in platinum. So, I think the journey is on, and we’ll endeavour to do that. With that, I hand over to Bijay to run you through with the detailed number crunching. But overall, I think the team has done very well, and we are happy that we are on track and are delivering what we have guided this year. Thank you.”

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On Q3 - EBITDA has shown a very healthy growth of 101%, up from INR79 crores to INR159 crores. PBT and PAT have also 108%. One of the important features of this quarter was a 66% growth in my exports, up from INR202 crores to INR335 crores between Q3 FY '25 and Q3 FY '26. Our ODM revenue for the quarter is approximately 16%. (up from 12%)

On Margin - When we started off this year, we had guided a margin of 8%, EBITDA margin of 8%, which was revised to 9%. And now we are confident that we should be able to deliver INR500 crores plus of EBITDA, up from INR324 crores of last year, which would translate into a 55%, 57% growth against a targeted growth of 30%, which we had guided**.** Gross margin for the quarter is 27.4% as against 26% for Q3 of last year. The margin improvement is mainly led by higher export mix, higher ODM, higher industrial and healthcare business and also lower consumer and IT, which is a relatively lower gross margin business

On Fy 27 - we believe that we are well poised to take sort of capitalize on the emerging opportunities and grow healthy growth rate across all verticals, such that we would be able to deliver a 30% growth rate in the coming year also.

On Export - Our performance has come despite the ongoing tariff uncertainties in the U.S., which we expect should settle in the near term, benefiting the entire industry. A key positive development is the EU FTA, which, over the long run, will support the electronics sector through duty rationalization and increased exports, especially in segments like automobiles where we are part of the supply chain. Given our strong presence in Europe, including a manufacturing base in Germany and decades of export experience, we believe this will create a favorable ecosystem for sustained growth. With exports already growing 45% over nine months to ₹837 crores, we expect to scale this to around ₹1,000–1,100 crores in the coming year.

On PCB - our PCB project is on track. The construction has started, and we expect the construction to be completed by about June, July. Parallelly, the equipment’s are being ordered, and we are on track to start the trial production by December 26, January, March '27 quarter so that we have a first 1 year of sales from the capacity which we are creating this year.

Q on PCB Capex Fwd - In the first phase, to be completed by December FY’26–27, we plan to invest around ₹360–400 crores, which will create capacity for 720,000 square meters of multilayer PCBs and 480,000 square meters of single-layer PCBs. The facility infrastructure is being designed to accommodate additional two multilayer lines, and given the strong customer traction and inquiries, we expect capacity expansion to be preponed versus earlier timelines. We anticipate a similar level of investment in the next phase, depending on demand visibility. The broader ₹1,500 crore plan, including CCL (copper Clad Laminate), HDI (High Density Interconnect), and Flex (Flexible PCB), remains subject to government approvals, with execution likely from FY’27–28 onwards. PCB consumption, about 10% to 15% is HDI and other things, 70% to 75% of that would be sub-8 layer – single to sub-8 layer of 8 layers

Q on PCB Strategy & Margin - On the PCB front, we are engaging with customers across industrial, automotive, and consumer segments, with industrial being a broad category including applications like energy metering, and we expect to operate in line with industry EBITDA margins of 15–17% without PLI. Within automotive, we are targeting multiple applications such as lighting and infotainment PCBAs to capture a wider share of demand. Our strategy is to initially focus on low-hanging opportunities and gradually build capabilities to address high-end segments like med-tech and exports, which have longer approval cycles

On Elcome -We have acquired Elcome. The deal has been closed, and we expect that, going forward, the defence vertical would contribute to the bottom line more and to the top line as a proportionate figure, a little lower because it will be about 5%, 6% of overall revenue. The current quarter consolidated EBITDA also includes INR12 crore from Elcome consolidation (for about 15-16 days, we have been able to include ELcome P&L performance into our consolidated financials)

Q on Elcome Going Fwd - Elcome is expected to deliver revenues of around ₹280–300 crores this year, with a growth potential of 10–15% going forward, although the defence business typically involves long gestation periods and lumpy order flows. We see this acquisition as a strategic platform to expand our presence in defence by broadening our product offerings over time.

On ESG Rating - we have got the gold rating from EcoVadis which is the ESG compliance, and we are now rated among the top 5% companies globally. Last year, it was a bronze rating.

On WC & Debit - overall operating cash flow for the entire 9-month period is now positive for the company. We again continue to focus on reduction of net working capital days by another maybe 3 to 5 days over the next 2 to 3 quarters. We have a total gross debt of INR529 crores as on December end. And as again saying, we are carrying a healthy treasury balance of INR933 crores. With this, we have a net cash position of INR404 crores as on December.

Q n Consumer Segment - there is a growth of approximately INR24 crores over the last quarter. And this is, again, mainly largely driven by telecom business, which we are doing, the set-top boxes, GPON, IDU, ODU, that is one last thing. Additionally, the consumer sector-driven ODM business, what we are doing is like water purification and maybe some bit of RFID tags, and consumer end use

Q on Smart Meter Rev - In this IT and railways during the quarter, we have done approximately INR82 crores, of which railways is only INR17 crores, INR18 crores, and balance is IT. And similarly in the industrial breakup, smart metering is less than INR50 crores for the quarter here.

Q on Smart Meter 160cr 9M Vs 300cr Fy26E Guided - In the smart metering business, we are consciously selective due to the sticky working capital cycle, as we prioritize cash flow visibility over aggressive growth despite ample opportunity. While volumes are growing well, the value growth appears softer at times due to arrangements like customers supplying key components, which impacts reported sales. Overall, our growth is a matter of choice, as we prefer to scale sustainably without compromising on receivables and cash flow discipline.

Q on Fy 26 Rev – Q4, we should be able to grow this figure by about INR1,600 crores plus such that we should be sitting at anything between INR4,850 crores to INR5,000 crores.

Q on Q3 High Margin & Sustainability - Export is a very high-margin business, we are up from INR202 crores to INR335 crores. This INR135 crores additional sales results in a comparatively very high contribution towards EBITDA. Similarly, if I see my performance on industrial, my industrial is 31% in quarter 3, grown 46% over corresponding period of last year. So, these high-margin verticals where the growth has come this quarter has resulted in 12-odd percent EBITDA. Going forward, we guide that we should be able to deliver a blended EBITDA margin of 10% for the next year. The overall business mix remains similar to Q3 FY’25, and the ~1% improvement in gross margins is largely driven by better cost controls and procurement efficiencies. The larger benefit has come from scale, with ~45% growth driving operating leverage and resulting in a 3.5% improvement in EBITDA margins.

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Disc - Not yet invested and not yet biased

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Anybody tracking the stock knows why it crashed by 7% today?

It’s not a crash but a healthy pullback to EMA50 on daily. The stock has nearly doubled in the last six months. It can’t keep moving up always. When broad market sentiments are bearish, stocks trending upwards give you an opportunity to add.

From a trading perspective, one should exit because the structure is invalidated but for long term investors, it’s safe as long as 1187 is protected.

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How you arrived at this 1187 as long term stop loss 200 MA?