What about Non-UP sugars like 1. KCP sugar, KM, Ponni erode, Rana sugars, Renuka, Simbhaoli & Ugar sugars.
Rana sugars last Q BS showing inventory of 102 Cr approx, why & what does it mean for its near term price
Technically sugar stocks are in consolidation mode. And i feel that there is one more leg to the sugar rally.
But for me personally, sugar stocks formed a hugely disproportionate share in my portfolio (around 75-80%)…additionally i was holding such a highly leveraged position in sugar stocks which would have been enough for the gamblers league to roll out the red carpet for me.
I now recall Benjamin Graham who defined an intelligent investor as one who buys in a bear market and sells in a bull market. Sometimes, in market even rookie investors get lucky. Recognizing that hilding a highly leveraged holding is an act of foolishness, i have exited most of my sugar investment and book profit. March is a month for us to contribute towards nation building through paying our taxes and my CA tells me that i have to pay surcharge too.
I now hold a small trading portfolio of sugar stocks…small enough for quick exit. Thus this phase of my cyclical investing is succesfully completed. I am now moving towards wind energy sector, whose prospects i have come to like.
I wish all the sugar investors the very best for the next leg of the sugar rally.
All praise belongs to Almighty God…for His infinite benevolence and mercy.
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Madam, Request you to advise me on Rana Sugars(-9%) & Ugar Sugar(-17%) at cmp
Thanks Mehnaz for guiding us through this sugar cycle both by way of charts & with elaborate fundamental discussions also.
Last year there was a drought in karnataka…this year too there is a drought…so why are you holding karnataka based Ugar…why dont you shift to UP based companies which have increased production by 20%
Thanks Mehnaz. Ana what about Rana sugars Chandigarh Punjab. Don’t know much to read balance sheets but inventory showing a figure of 102 Cr approx.
Mehnaz Ma’am…Firstly many thanks for educating me regd the nuances of Indian sugar landscape, i doubt anyone could have done better job at that, I exited all my positions on date of each co results this qtr, held since oct low…love the way you downplay your huge contributionsto this thread…Regd energy sector Ujjas, Sarda Energy and Suzlon have been actively tracked by me…and yes like you say time to contribute to our nations dev this month…
Kind Regards
Tarun
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ISMA prediction first started at 24.3 then 23.5, 21.3 , now at 20. The reality could be sub 19. At these levels imports are a certainty. If international prices spike, domestic prices too have to catch up to that level. It should cross 40 soon.
The time for which it would sustain above 40 depends on global weather patterns, el nino, monsoon .
as soon as imports are announced by India, international sugar prices will see a rally. India is a global mamoth in production and consumption and any imports shows weak production, this will fuel rally. I am quite sure we are yet to see the best of this sugar rally. Buy north based companies like Balrampur, Dwarikesh and others…
Dear Mehnaz,
First of all i would like to Congratulate You on your Sweet Rewarding journey on the great investment cycle you tracked which paid of very well for you and by your knowledge and magical charts you earned a good amount of profit …
Thankyou for helping me all in all this times by your super tracking knowledgeable Fundamental analysis and helped me to Understand how Cyclical stocks work …
just a small request , That since you have been tracking Technically most of the sugar stocks it would be of great help for people like me who still wish to be invested in the Sugar stocks ( cause i regret that i missed most of the rally cause i joined this forum very late ) since we feel that there is still more juice left as per the recent data … that you keep posting charts as and when you feel that the pattern has been broken and we keep a trailing Stop loss and we are able to book our profits as well on time and not get stuck for another cycle to restart again 
Regards,
Manish
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Considering the possibility of Elnino,shouldn’t you be holding on to sugar stocks for a little longer?
In Maharashtra, the reservoirs are full due to last monsoon being above normal…so I don’t think that there is going to be any adverse impact on sugarcane sowing in the ongoing plantation season.
While offloading is strictly an individual decision based on their risk appetite,your early departure is causing disturbance to many investors. That is the hold you had with sugar followers with your timely predictions.
Kudos and Good Luck.
Friends based on my assumptions sugar cycle is near top so be bit cautious. Without doubt upcoming quater result is going to be best for all sugar companies so in its anticipation it may rise another 10-20% from this level in next 2 months but after that sugar companies can earn this much profit in next year only if at all. There is no shortage of sugar in world market as Brazil being largest producers can always increase sugar production at prices above 20 cent/lb after diverting from ethanol as above this price level producing sugar is more remunerative for them. Indian govt likely to import sugar of around 2 million tonne soon to bridge this shortfall once new sugar season in brazil starts from may onward. Also as we are nearing 2019 which is next general election in India it is highly likely that FRP/SAP for sugarcane is likely to increase in next season to keep sugarcane farmer vote bank in good humor. Fall in sugar stocks can be faster than its rise and it can surprise everybody at downside too. Once import of sugar is allowed may be companies like EID parry and Shree Renuka can benefit and sugar industry value likely to migrate from UP based mills to these companies.Assuming prices supported from these levels karnatka and maharastra based sugar companies may likely to outperform. I have bought sugar stocks just before start of sugar cycle in Aug,2015 but sold out most of my holding prematurely in second week of nov, 2016 after realising 3-4 times gain on overall sugar protofolio but not got benefited from recent runup in sugar stocks.
Only a few sugar cos like Balrampur and Dhampur have booked offseason expenses in Q2 and Q3…while the rest will be booking those charges in Q4…
also Balrampur wrote off the dues from UP govt in last year Q4, hence in the present year Q4 they will be showing relatively better performance.
Dhampur too should perform well because of its relatively high exportable cogen.
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No Urgency for Sugar Import: Govt
The reservoir levels in Maharashtra are close to its average54%(59%). But the reservoir levels in Karnataka, Tn, AP are worse than last year at 24% vs 45%.
The Maharashtra sugar will bounce back next season to 6-7 , not higher than that, as its major sugar cane variety needs 18 months to mature. The south production will suffer in the next season too. Inspite of usual sugar surplus claims from ISMA, next year will or could be a deficit. No need to share ISMAs certainty of a sugar surplus.
Levels in the reservoir levels would mean nothing if there is a deficient monsoon. Remember the last drought in 2015.
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New twist from ISMA…demand for sugar in India has reduced. Fantastic.