StageInvesting +Elliot Waves

Well , you’re right wrt your own assesment.

That’s the beauty of data , one can interpret it in all the ways. We all see what we want to see ( selective attention/selective retention) and everyone is right.

Let’s try to elaborate further wrt data-interpretation that suits our view. :grinning:

As our name suggests that we mix 2 types of technical analysis - stage analysys and Elliot waves, let’s try to answer this question wrt Elliot Waves prespective.

As per EW theory , every market moves in the following way :
download (1)

Our interpretation is that we’ve completed 5 waves rally that started in April 2020 and now we’re expected to go in ABC type of correction.
Nifty Monthly Chart

How deep it would go ?

Well that’s a difficult question to answer - many a times it is mix of price and time correction and many a times the fall is not much but market remains in sideways period for long time.

And yes, these counts are matter of interpretation and can keep changing as per the activity in the market .

As of now , market is showing some resistance and we need to be cautious.

Our way of working is that rather than remaining fixed on a goal-post, we need to be agile and do what the charts tell (rather than our gut -feeling ).

As of now ,the charts are not giving an optimistic picture ! Hence we’re keeping our expectations low and we’re on high alert as in our way of investing ,capital preservation is the top-most priority.

IN future ,if facts (charts) change, our views change.

18 Likes

@StageInvesting: Please suggest your view on Neuland Labs

Most of the charts with Elliott wave analysis on social media suggesting entire wave 5 is still pending. Here you are showing 5 of 5 is also completed. Looks scary…!! Ofcourse if everyone sees market in same way either all will make money or all will loose big…So only market exists…

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“What the herd hates the most is the one who thinks differently. It is not so much the opinion itself, as the audacity of wanting to think for themselves. Something they do not know how to do.”

  • Schopenhauer
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Strength in the Falling Markets

In a falling market ,if a stock shows some resilience against its peers ,it is considered that there’s something special about the company - whether it is a management change, product-mix change or some undervaltution.

Here are some examples:

Bajaj Finance

After 3 and 1/2 half years of doing nothing in a bull market , Bajaj Finance is showing strength in an otherwise weak market .

Can this outperformance continue !

Let’s keep a watch.

Weekly Chart

Wockhardt

It has been going strong for last 2 years whatever the market situation.

Can it break its 2013 high (near 2000) !

Let’s keep a watch .

Monthly Chart

Zensar Tech

Another stock that is going against the trend .

Can it break the channel this time despite all the headwinds in the market?

Let’s track.

Monthly Chart

SRF

After 3 years of sideways movement , the stock is trying to come out of the box .

Is it starting its new leg ?

Let’s track this.

Monthly Chart

Do share if you find anything of similar kind ie having all of the following qualities:
a) Near all time high
b) Going up or standing strong
c) Is a well-discovered (known) company ie at least 4-5 years of listing history

Let’s learn from each other in this market .

Caution: None of the metioned stocks are buy/sell recommendations. The post is just for learning process wrt whether there is any place to hide in falling markets and whther it works.

16 Likes

Jindal Drill also showing strength

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@StageInvesting
I find following to be strong comparatively.

  1. Pokarna
  2. KRN heat exchange
  3. Shaily engineering plastics

Also i find Timetechno recovering quickly.

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It does not have lomng history of listing

Let’s be focused on one strategy.

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Yes Bro !. Newly listed.
I just tried to connect with their capex related to AC/Room AC story and bought after IPO dip, Now the story looks to be aligning with consumption theory of white goods demand post budget & income tax related annoucement.
Though may not have anything to study from technical perspective also a very short fundamental history.
P.S. - My observations, Me a rookie, Me no expert etc.

2 Likes

Let’s be focused on one angle. Otherwise we all would be confused.
This should be the focus area:
a) Near all time high
b) Going up or standing strong
c) Is a well-discovered (known) company ie at least 4-5 years of listing history

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Hello sir What will be the potential upside of wockhard technically if it breaks the life time high of 1999

Cantabil

Other one trying to break high of 2 and half years.

Weekly Chart

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Axiscades looks very strong backed by very good results and change in management.

Very cheap valuations for the growth rate shown by Pokarna

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  1. LTTS
  2. Navin Fluorine (Srf’s peer)
  3. Jubilant foodworks (probably coming out of a beer run)
  4. Narayana Hrudalya
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@StageInvesting
Aye aye, Stage! :saluting_face:

Rookie reporting ! I did the list, compiledd the names mentioned here,Took longer than I probably should have (guess I was sailing in slow waters—mostly in my free time, okay!)—now it’s over to you to trim the sails and carve out the true pirate path !

Bytheway, how be the market seas now? are the tides turnin’ in our favor for few more weeks ? Just for few weeks…okay ?

  1. AEROFLEX (Aeroflex Industries)
  2. APOLLO (Apollo microsys)
  3. AXISCADES-BE (Axiscades Technologies)
  4. BAJFINANCE (Bajaj Finance)
  5. CANTABIL (Cantabil Retail)
  6. GANESHHOUC (Ganesh Housing)
  7. GREAVESCOT (Greaves Cotton)
  8. JINDRILL (Jindal Drilling)
  9. JUBLFOOD (Jubilant Foodworks)
  10. KIMS (Krishna institute )
  11. LTTS (L&T Technology Services)
  12. NAVINFLUOR (Navin Fluorine)
  13. NH (Narayana Hrudayalaya)
  14. NIRLON (Nirlon Ltd)
  15. POKARNA (Pokarna Ltd)
  16. SHAILY (Shaily Engineering)
  17. SHIVALIK (Shivalik Rasayan)
  18. SRF (Srf Ltd)
  19. STEELCAS (Steelcast Ltd)
  20. VTMLTD (Vtm Ltd)
  21. VIKRAMTH (Vikram Thermo)
  22. WOCKPHARMA (Wockhardt Pharma)
  23. ZENSARTECH (Zensar Technologies)
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Great work.

Easiest way to track 52 Weeks Highs is to use this scanner.

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Narayana Hrudayalya

Anothe stocck -maintaining its strength in last 5 months of all.

Weekly Chart

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Gold .

Shared in April 2022, gold has gone up by 50% during these 2 and half years in dollar terms whereas it has gone up 67% in Indian rupee terms ( from 51000 to 85000 per 10 gms)

What Lies Ahead ?

It seems that bull run might continue especially in Indian rupees.

International prices are likely to cross US $3100 per Oz from here if this bull run continues.

For Indian customers, if we add likely rupee depreciation of 5-7 % in coming one year , then we’re looking at the levels of INR 1,00,000 per 10 gm in next one year or so.

Disclaimer : No buy/sell recommendation. These are just technical projections, there are chances that none of these assumptions work out ( international price as well as value of the rupee .

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1. Bajaj Finance
2. Wockhardt
3. SRF
4. Zensar Tech

Two more stocks that are showing strength in this struggling market.

Here are the weekly charts :

7.Chambal Fertiliser

8.Axiscades

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Some others that I noticed (not sure if they qualify as per your parameters):

  1. Biocon (possibly due to approval for Malaysia facility)
  2. IEX (upcoming summer season expected to drive demand)
  3. MCX (gold price rise directly increases contract value/notional value and hence revenue for MCX, if oil prices become volatile again that could also help)
  4. Car Trade (Finally some profits at the end of the tunnel!)
  5. Jash Engineering (seasonally strong Q4 expected)

Just my 2 cents. Views welcome from technical charts perspective

1 Like