Well , you’re right wrt your own assesment.
That’s the beauty of data , one can interpret it in all the ways. We all see what we want to see ( selective attention/selective retention) and everyone is right.
Let’s try to elaborate further wrt data-interpretation that suits our view.
As our name suggests that we mix 2 types of technical analysis - stage analysys and Elliot waves, let’s try to answer this question wrt Elliot Waves prespective.
As per EW theory , every market moves in the following way :
Our interpretation is that we’ve completed 5 waves rally that started in April 2020 and now we’re expected to go in ABC type of correction.
Nifty Monthly Chart
How deep it would go ?
Well that’s a difficult question to answer - many a times it is mix of price and time correction and many a times the fall is not much but market remains in sideways period for long time.
And yes, these counts are matter of interpretation and can keep changing as per the activity in the market .
As of now , market is showing some resistance and we need to be cautious.
Our way of working is that rather than remaining fixed on a goal-post, we need to be agile and do what the charts tell (rather than our gut -feeling ).
As of now ,the charts are not giving an optimistic picture ! Hence we’re keeping our expectations low and we’re on high alert as in our way of investing ,capital preservation is the top-most priority.
IN future ,if facts (charts) change, our views change.