Smallcap momentum portfolio

Financial markets despite dealing with numbers, math, statistics, computers, even AI are not rational completely. There are a lot of non-quantifiable aspects.

If you are retail, and if you have identified how to participate, you can go with that. If you have not found what suits you, you can continue exploring areas and ways to participate. One style of participation is just going with the market, with its flow. Another way is to participate less or look for relatively lesser valued opportunities. There are members in this forum who belong to one school of thought, they might even be non-believers in contrasting styles, but they make money too, as they know what they are doing, and they are good at it. There are members who discussed about buying something, where a scam has happened, and they could be good at this. It all boils down to what we expect or rather need. Some can afford to stay out, focus elsewhere, some see this as opportunity. Buffett is correct, Soros is correct, Simons is correct, Minervini is correct, Taleb is correct.

One thing that is true is the experience that we can gain by participating in whatever capacity, as we get to see, learn and experience a lot of things, which can help us become better participants.

If you want to make fresh investments now, you can pay attention to the valuation of the business and you can build positions with time. If you are already in profits, you have to be more cautious.

I am reading comments about order book investing, buying the dips, SME IPOs, US job data etc. So looks like the music may extend.

As Dr. Hitesh says, if we are getting a chance we should use it, because when the bear wakes up, we will have to give back some.

Just some thoughts.

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If you are not comfortable in following this system and entering into stocks in this list, thinking that these stocks have already gone up too much… you can tweak this strategy…

  1. You take this list as your raw data, upon which you can apply some discretion.
  2. One things is very clear that this list is of stocks and sectors which are currently in momentum. You might apply some stage analysis criteria, most of them will be in stage 2 only…but you can check if anybody is slipping into stage 3, as these stocks are taking average price of 6 months and 12 months, there is a slight chance that few stocks may have slipped into stage 3 .
  3. You can also see if there is fresh brrakout happening , where you can enter or some stocks are near its 10 week EMA, where you are comfortable to enter.
  4. Additionally you can apply some fundamental filters , where you dont want to enter into loss making companies or whose sales are not improving. When market falls start, such kind of companies will fall more, whose fundamentals are weak. Also since this list is price driven, there must be many companies which are not fundamentally sound.
  5. Also about exiting , this system follows systematic approach, where automatically stocks get dropped when they go out of list. But you can devise your own criteria, where if they are still in stage 2 and moving up, you will keep holding.
  6. But while doing all this, you need to be aware, that you are not following this system…Only makimg use of names in the list as your raw data, to stumble upon new names.
3 Likes

Could you share some links through which I can understand how to do stage analysis? I know there’s a VP thread for stage analysis but I don’t know if they shared details on how to do it. It will be even better if there’s a site which provides stage analysis on a given stock and provide the stage details a stock is in.

Hi. This is a nice video I saw sometime ago.

[

STAN WEINSTEIN Stage Analysis Trading EXPLAINED Step-by-Step!
youtu.be

](https://youtu.be/xZL0bwjzufo)

1 Like

@Sudhakar_Subramanian
You just read the book of Stan Weinstein…Everything will be clear

3 Likes

Update for entry on 15th July 2024

50EMA (16546) > 200EMA (14605); hence, we can continue without any change.

Based on ranking:

  1. COCHINSHIP
  2. JAIBALAJI
  3. GRSE
  4. HUDCO
  5. ANANDRATHI
  6. NBCC
  7. POWERINDIA
  8. JWL
  9. SCHNEIDER
  10. KPIL
  11. AEGISLOG
  12. BLUESTARCO
  13. ARE&M
  14. APARINDS
  15. GLENMARK
  16. RAILTEL
  17. VGUARD
  18. IRCON
  19. SIGNATURE
  20. GODFRYPHLP

Based on A → Z for easy tracking:

  • AEGISLOG
  • ANANDRATHI
  • APARINDS*
  • ARE&M
  • BLUESTARCO
  • COCHINSHIP
  • GLENMARK*
  • GODFRYPHLP
  • GRSE
  • HUDCO
  • IRCON*
  • JAIBALAJI
  • JWL
  • KPIL
  • NBCC
  • POWERINDIA
  • RAILTEL*
  • SCHNEIDER
  • SIGNATURE
  • VGUARD

Exit:
MOTILALOFS makes an exit.
EXIDEIND, SOBHA and TITAGARH stay within the top 25 and hence remain.

Entry:
APARINDS makes an entry.
GLENMARK, IRCON and RAILTEL cannot enter as there is no vacancy.

3 Likes

there are some difference in ranking of stocks
6 month date: 12/01/2024
12month date:14/07/2023

1.COCHINSHIP
2.JAIBALAJI
3.GRSE
4.HUDCO
5.ANANDRATHI
6.POWERINDIA
7.NBCC
8.SCHNEIDER
9.BLUESTARCO
10.JWL
11.AEGISLOG
12.ARE&M
13.VGUARD
14.SIGNATURE
15.GODFRYPHLP
16.TITAGARH
17.IRCON
18.EXIDEIND
19.SOBHA
20.APARINDS

can anyone help me with this ? where i am making mistake ?

@kuldeep_agarwal I have the same look back dates.

Can you please check your Std Dev values? I think the differences are coming from there. I am giving below the numbers from my Sheet.

STDEV 1 y STDEV 6m
AEGISLOG 0.01370844525 0.0168523789
ANANDRATHI 0.00999389513 0.009762497608
APARINDS 0.00699431571 0.007368269298
ARE&M 0.01164247127 0.01472681361
BLUESTARCO 0.00878699635 0.01046608432
COCHINSHIP 0.01834661169 0.01915496512
GLENMARK 0.009191654257 0.008734535722
GODFRYPHLP 0.01276513191 0.01504615542
GRSE 0.01687386649 0.01961251879
HUDCO 0.01806848324 0.02096855556
IRCON 0.01757918828 0.01938135001
JAIBALAJI 0.01370161688 0.0129757371
JWL 0.01591461684 0.01683042889
KPIL 0.01057991271 0.01248488182
NBCC 0.01620297627 0.01835456283
POWERINDIA 0.01249254121 0.01568258519
RAILTEL 0.01735681544 0.01924611253
SCHNEIDER 0.01286101326 0.01452551077
SIGNATURE 0.01158830963 0.01267073046
VGUARD 0.007483855665 0.008080982257

I was checking the std. Dev. Values…almost value of every script is slightly different…

What to do ?

@kuldeep_agarwal Was the sequence ok last week? If yes, please check if there are some values that are not ok this week.

You will remember that we had an issue of Google Finance fetching the prices about a month ago. At that time, we changed our function also. Please see if you are using the latest function so that there are no errors coming from this. This is the function we are using now.
=INDEX(GOOGLEFINANCE(“NSE:”&$B$4,“price”,$A465-1),ROWS(GOOGLEFINANCE(“NSE:”&$B$4,“price”,$A465-1)),2) where B4 is the scrip symbol and A465 is the date.

I have not included any special sessions in my sheet. Please check if you have. No harm if you have done; you just need to keep using it.

Last option is to use the function we are currently using to fetch prices from one month back until last weekend.

I m fetching the data from bhav copy… From June

I m not using Google finance code

@kuldeep_agarwal I am using Google Finance function only.

Though I don’t expect it, the difference could be because of that.

I will do an exercise for last week and see if there is any difference between bhav copy vlookup and fetching data using function.

Should I make new sheet from starting?

@kuldeep_agarwal Please don’t do anything like that.

I have done a quick check for last week and the numbers I posted previously are still valid, ie no change between using Google Finance function to fetch data and integrating bhav copy info.

Okay… look like . There is some error from my end .