Smallcap momentum portfolio

Hey @visuarchie don’t you use following steps now for your setup ?

a. Calculate the returns on point to point.
b. Calculate the Standard Deviation (SD) of the daily returns.
c. Calculate a factor called momentum ratio which is returns / SD.
d. After that calculate Z-score which is (Momentum ratio - Mean of Momentum ratio of universe)/Standard deviation of Universe.
Complete these steps for 1 year and 6 months look back period.
e. Do the weighting of the Z-score value. I have used equal weightage of 0.5 and 0.5 for 1 year and 6 months respectively. People could choose to give higher weightage to the 6 months Z-score and lower weightage to the 1 year Z-score.
f. I then rank the stocks based on the resultant number.

@theengineer2012 Yes, this is what I continue to use. If you are asking in reference to my previous answer, I was suggesting that as a means to quickly starting a momentum pf.

You can embellish it with lot of other parameters to fine tune it.

Trust this is clear.

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Update for entry on 1st April 2024

As a result of index being rejigged, 36 stocks have been changed. Some of them have gone to the Midcap index and some Microcaps have been included here. There are nearly 10 changes in our pf mainly as a result of this rejigging.

Based on ranking:

  1. JAIBALAJI
  2. ANANDRATHI
  3. SIGNATURE
  4. INOXWIND
  5. BSE
  6. SCHNEIDER
  7. MEDANTA
  8. MRPL
  9. DOMS
  10. SWANENERGY
  11. BSOFT
  12. CHALET
  13. ACE
  14. HBLPOWER
  15. HUDCO
  16. SOBHA
  17. MOTILALOFS
  18. NBCC
  19. TATAINVEST
  20. CHENNPETRO

Based on A → easy tracking

  • ACE*
  • ANANDRATHI*
  • BSE
  • BSOFT
  • CHALET*
  • CHENNPETRO*
  • DOMS*
  • HBLPOWER*
  • HUDCO
  • INOXWIND*
  • JAIBALAJI*
  • MEDANTA
  • MOTILALOFS
  • MRPL
  • NBCC
  • SCHNEIDER*
  • SIGNATURE*
  • SOBHA
  • SWANENERGY
  • TATAINVEST

Exit:
EIHOTEL, INFIBEAM, IRCON, KALYANKJIL, KAYNES, MCX, SUZLON, WELCORP exit.
COCHINSHIP and INTELLECT stay within the top 25 and hence remain.

Entry:
ACE, ANANDRATHI, CHALET, HBLPOWER, INOXWIND, JAIBALAJI, SCHNEIDER, SIGNATURE make an entry. DOMS should have entered as it has a higher ranking, but I have chosen not to, as it has a history of just 3 months in the market. Instead, HBLPOWER is being added.
CHENNPETRO and DOMS cannot enter as there is no vacancy.

So some discretion exists, which as far as we can tell will not change the profit.

@ChaitanyaC Good point that needs further explanation. I am not looking at this as application of discretion.

  1. My look back periods are 6m and 1y. This does not fulfil both.
  2. In my sheet, I use the latest available date for look back. If 1y look back is not available, I take a date that is closer than this. Similarly, for 6m.
  3. In the case of DOMS, the latest available data is for 3 months only. When I take this, in effect I am comparing a 3m performance with a 6m / 1y performance of other stocks.
  4. May pf managers actually don’t take into consideration stocks that are less than a particular look back period.

Fyi, SIGNATURE just makes the 6m cut; otherwise, that would also have been removed.

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A naive doubt. Then how come a 3 month old stock is in the results if the look back period is more than 3 months? It should not have appeared.

How do your returns compare with Nifty Momentum Index?

Ideally, I should have removed stocks with trading history of less than 6 months and then done the short listing.

However, I chose the lazy way of screening all stocks and found this in my final list.

I can add a rule now saying that stocks with trading history less than 6m will not be considered even if they make the final list. This will ensure that the discretionary element you were talking about is not there.

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I guess you are meaning the Nifty 200 Momentum index. I do not use this as a reference as it is a different universe.

Over the last 3 to 4 months, I have been comparing pf returns against the index itself on which it is based. Returns have been equal or better.

I have compiled a list of MIDCAP150 MOMENTUM 50 INDEX stocks, with top-ranked stocks such as BSE, Prestige, and REC Ltd. I am considering creating a portfolio with midcap stocks. Would it be advisable to purchase them without any discretionary thinking?

This is an update to my previous post on pf changes. Due to breaching of one of the conditions by IREDA, the indices have been changed again. This has affected smallcap250 index also. BSE has been removed and VGUARD has been reinstated. There are now 11 changes in the pf. Following this change,

Based on ranking:

  1. JAIBALAJI
  2. ANANDRATHI
  3. SIGNATURE
  4. INOXWIND
  5. SCHNEIDER
  6. MEDANTA
  7. MRPL
  8. DOMS
  9. SWANENERGY
  10. BSOFT
  11. CHALET
  12. ACE
  13. HBLPOWER
  14. HUDCO
  15. SOBHA
  16. MOTILALOFS
  17. NBCC
  18. TATAINVEST
  19. CHENNPETRO
  20. POWERINDIA

Based on A → Z for easy tracking

  • ACE*
  • ANANDRATHI*
  • BSOFT
  • CHALET*
  • CHENNPETRO*
  • DOMS*
  • HBLPOWER*
  • HUDCO
  • INOXWIND*
  • JAIBALAJI*
  • MEDANTA
  • MOTILALOFS
  • MRPL
  • NBCC
  • POWERINDIA*
  • SCHNEIDER*
  • SIGNATURE*
  • SOBHA
  • SWANENERGY
  • TATAINVEST

Exit:
BSE, EIHOTEL, INFIBEAM, IRCON, KALYANKJIL, KAYNES, MCX, SUZLON, WELCORP exit.
COCHINSHIP and INTELLECT stay within the top 25 and hence remain.

Entry:
ACE, ANANDRATHI, CHALET, CHENNPETRO, HBLPOWER, INOXWIND, JAIBALAJI, SCHNEIDER, SIGNATURE make an entry.
DOMS with trading history of less than 6 months is not considered and POWERINDIA cannot enter as there is no vacancy.

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What is your objective? What is your plan?

Momentum is not creating a PF per se, the created group keeps on changing, there will be churn, there will be many new entries and exits, not to mention losses.

@kuldeep_agarwal As you know I am not an investment advisor. I just post my study.

Based on my study, I would like to mention two points.

  1. If you decide to go ahead with momentum based investing, go ahead without any discretionary thinking.
  2. Typical sizes recommended is about 10% of the index. In your case, you have chosen Midcap150 index. Therefore, you can start with just 15 stocks; you may not need 50 stocks.
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How do u receive updates on the index changes. Do u monitor manually or are there any alert services?

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@krishnasristy I have to monitor them manually, that is why I might miss out some. This is what happened recently. I nearly missed the second notification about IREDA being removed.

Notification? Where do u get that?

@krishnasristy NSE gives out press releases with these changes to indices. You have to keep looking out for them.

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@visuarchie

How are you looking at this whole momentum thing? The aspect of returns and the activity of doing, both.

Regarding returns, how do you think they will be in the future, not that we can predict, but given that this is a weekly strategy and more than 52 weeks have passed, I guess we can get some idea if something is done that many times. Do you think returns will become half, or they will be lower but will not be halved, or do you even think there could be a losing streak too?

Regarding the activity, you have laid out all of your work, including the list that will be bought, how do you look at the strategy itself, from the looks of it (I haven’t gone through it in detail, neither have I used it) it does not look too complicated, sure there is some work to be done to get the end list, but the very structure does not look too complicated (again, I did not look into it deeply). So assuming everyone who has replied is finding it fairly doable, then how do you associate such high returns with a strategy like this? Or it is that, the strategy is not that simple, it is your clear presentation that made it look like simple, so the high returns are in proportion to the work done, so they are justified.
I know that many simple things work with investing, some analysis is done, there is valuation comfort, even margin of safety, strong business, and if one has patience, the end result could be good. But, I am not too sure if trading is simple, because the emphasis is also on time, losses, along with return, and chasing momentum is definitely hard.

So if you can tell what your initial thoughts were before starting, and how the strategy has evolved over the many weeks, how your outlook has evolved, any new learning etc.

I would like to know about your perspective, which you have now, because the returns are already known, and they are very good.

Thanks to @tjkambow who spotted an error, I am producing below the chart once again. DOMS is no longer in the top 20 and EIHOTEL remains. CHENNPETRO cannot enter. These are the only changes. Otherwise, even the rankings are unchanged.

Based on ranking:

  1. JAIBALAJI
  2. ANANDRATHI
  3. SIGNATURE
  4. INOXWIND
  5. SCHNEIDER
  6. MEDANTA
  7. MRPL
  8. EIHOTEL
  9. SWANENERGY
  10. BSOFT
  11. CHALET
  12. ACE
  13. HBLPOWER
  14. HUDCO
  15. SOBHA
  16. MOTILALOFS
  17. NBCC
  18. TATAINVEST
  19. CHENNPETRO
  20. POWERINDIA

Based on A → Z for easy tracking

  • ACE*
  • ANANDRATHI*
  • BSOFT
  • CHALET*
  • CHENNPETRO*
  • EIHOTEL*
  • HBLPOWER*
  • HUDCO
  • INOXWIND*
  • JAIBALAJI*
  • MEDANTA
  • MOTILALOFS
  • MRPL
  • NBCC
  • POWERINDIA*
  • SCHNEIDER*
  • SIGNATURE*
  • SOBHA
  • SWANENERGY
  • TATAINVEST

Exit:
BSE, INFIBEAM, IRCON, KALYANKJIL, KAYNES, MCX, SUZLON, WELCORP exit.
COCHINSHIP and INTELLECT stay within the top 25 and hence remain.

Entry:
ACE, ANANDRATHI, CHALET, HBLPOWER, INOXWIND, JAIBALAJI, SCHNEIDER, SIGNATURE make an entry.
CHENNPETRO and POWERINDIA cannot enter as there is no vacancy.

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@ChaitanyaC Long query from your side. Will break it up and answer as best as I can.

  1. I find the returns to be extremely good in momentum investing. This could be because the market is moving upwards. When there is a downturn, I am certain momentum investing will get affected, but I don’t see this as a major concern in the near future. Doing it myself - I think system based, momentum type investing is best for a small DIY retail investor. We should leave fundamental investing to professionals who have lots of time to study the company and do some scuttlebutt investing.

  2. Returns have been very good. I expect that it will continue to be good going forward. Will we hit a losing streak - I am sure we will. But, because I do weekly rebalances, I might come out without too much damage.

  3. I feel that people like complicated stuff. Anything that is simple, rule based investing is hard to digest for many. If I had justified the selection of stocks with some fundamental jargons, I am sure people would have found more conviction in the list.

  4. I started very small to be sure that I have got it right. Over the last 15 months or so, I have been adding money at regular intervals as I have become more and more confident in my methodology. Based on my successes, I have employed the same to multiple indices.

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