Saregama India Ltd: India’s premier music publishing label

Survey conducted showed how users are willing to pay a lower subscription fee to use ad free music on OTT platforms. (~ a year old article, however very informative).
99% Ad based free subscription users contributes 60% of revenues whereas 1% paid subscription users contribute to 40% of revenues. This is expected to increase to 6% paid subscription users contributing 80% of revenues. Huge runway for OTT players which in turn will reflect in Music Licensing revenues for Music Label owners.

https://redseer.com/newsletters/ott-audio-platforms-tuning-into-profitability/

Posted this on Music label thread, posting here for better reach.

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Even after recent move to Rs1545 stock is still at 24.9x FY21 assuming Rs62 EPS for FY21

Disclosure: Invested

Below articles:
I want to understand how music label finance music videos, How much a music video cost?

  1. Increasing ROI and have ways to re invest earned profit is one of the trait of multi bagger.
    Saregama India (NSE:SAREGAMA): Are Investors Overlooking Returns On Capital? - Simply Wall St News

  2. This is little bit too much.
    Recreated Version of ''Ek Ladki Bheegi Bhaagi Si'' Gains Market Capital for Saregama Music India
    Disclosure: Invested

What is the rationale behind running the Publication segment??
Company made a cumulative 10 year PAT of 159 crores and made operating losses of 106 crores in the publication segment.
It would have been better to dispose off this segment.

This has been dealt with in recent concalls and mgt is keeping it as is and not investing further in it.
The ceo has also tried to convey non-verbally that he ustds this but due to the group’s wish it is being kept right now.
You may go through transripts of the last 2-3 quarters for further clarity

Discl: Tracking bet only

All investors give this concern to Vikram (MD), however, he clearly tells it is up to the promoter. I personally feel, he also wants to get rid of this segment.
There is a land parcel also which promoter not thinking of doing anything.
Shares of CESC also will not be monetized.

These are legacy issues ( growing legacy), their tagline. :grinning:
Hope, losses do not increase from publication.
They want to make each verticle profitable, for eg. music, film production and hardware (carvaan).
Disclousre: Invested.

E1385666-FEC8-4812-87DF-62B6A6882260-121823.pdf (252.3 KB)

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20 Rs. Interim Dividend is a statement by company.
FY 20 : Dividend 7 Rs, EPS 25 Rs.
FY 21 : Dividend 20 Rs (Interim), EPS 52 (TTM)
I estimate earning will be at least similar or higher compared to last two quarters.
If company do not mess on spending side ( which I estimate, they will not) they are on steady growth trajectory.

Vikram is Jockey for this company, he bring company out of woods , commendable, huge fan of him.

Disclosure: Invested. Views are biased.

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I did a simple math on segment numbers.

I feel, they are still not making money on Carvaan (ad costs + distribution etc.)

If the licensing revenue grows at 25-30% for 10 years, it is a 90% EBIT business.

I am just trying to understand how are they staying relevant with new content. Even if they don’t - I feel their existing goldmine of IP should take them home.

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Interesting interview done by cmd recently:

Disc: tracking and studying.

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Saregama come out beautifully from perception that they have old music catalogue only. From last few months they have launched saregama originals which are getting views between 10 to 60 Millions in short times. Check on their youtube channel, in addition same songs are played on ALL music apps nationally and internationally. They again start investing in new film music rights, latest is movie CHEHRE.
One of their business segment which is dark horse is YODLEE films, which is proxy to OTT platforms in India. In this, cost is accounted on same year of movie release, renewal to OTT after 3/5 years will directly flow to bottom line.
I remember in one of credit rating report it was also mentioned as risk of obsolesce of old music catalogue.

Disclosure: Invested.

Saregama inks long term deal with Sanjay Leela Bhansali for 3 projects including upcoming movie " Gangubai Kadhiawadi".

Saregama looking for top tier movies for music. Key to monitor will be amount spend on new music acquisition, it should be reasonable. However, Vikram told in previous, con calls he will not spend money unless returns are meeting their criteria.
Saregama Originals are doing fine. I do not see any advertisement spends for Carvaan, as new fear of lockdown is around the corner.
I believe company will stay put to ride digital wave for their music library then spending on carvvaan.

Disclosure: Invested

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Solid results EPS of Rs65 in FY21 v/s 25.3 last year

Disclosure: Invested

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Can anyone please explain the 18.64 crore ‘other income’ booked in Q4? I can’t find any explanation in the company results.

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Maybe a naive question, why is the total expenses keep falling Year on Year.

True. And even with de growth in revenues. Company has increased EPS…

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looking at Q3 transcripts I found
"Unknown Analyst

Congratulations for a good set of numbers. Vikram, on the Carvaan part, if you can explain, we are seeing pretty good traction in the sales number this quarter. And as you have been highlighting, the sales have been without any significant marketing expense. So how do you see the sales panning out over the next few quarters given the quarter-on-quarter improvement that we have seen over the past 3 quarters? And also, if you can tell us how has been the online sales for the product since a lot of shift has happened in the buying pattern of people post-COVID? So how has that channel picked up and our strategy for that channel going forward?

Vikram Mehra

So let me try to answer the last part first. Yes, the share of digital sales has gone up for us also substantially. More and more people are buying online. And remember, digital sales – for a company like ours has to be looked in 2 ways. One, what is Saregama selling on digital? We sell through Amazon, we sell through Flipkart. We sell through Paytm. There are 11 different partners of our through which we are selling. And we are also selling from saregama.com.

That numbers I’m completely on top of it. But our small retailer, he’s got a shop maybe in Amritsar. That retailer of mine, I have given it to him right now to sell it right now from a shop, he may also be selling digitally. So if I combine his numbers also to it, which I will not come to know directly, then the sale of digital is very, very high.

Obviously, digital lends us also to lot of creative work because you can do a lot of work on the social media to promote your product, talking to the digital audience without incurring high expenses of TV advertising or newspaper advertising. So a lot of focus from our side is moving on promoting these products digitally and selling them also digitally. You asked me what is the projection we have for Carvaan going forward. See, there’s so much of uncertainty at this juncture sitting in. All I’m going to go back and commit to you is Carvaan will be a breakeven product. I’m not going to project Carvaan is going to be making money in the next 12 – 3 to 6 months, Carvaan will be a breakeven or a very, very marginal profit number.

Are we happy with the 138,000 number? No. We people are used to 250,000, 260,000 per quarter number. We are not at all happy with 138,000 number. But to increase the number, it’s very tempting to start doing marketing campaigns which generate demand, create awareness. We don’t want to do that at this stage."

So basically they have cut down on marketing expenses for a while, which has lead to lesser sales as well as lesser expenses.

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Q4 Concall
Key takeaways:

  1. Revenues is down Q to Q due to seasonality. Revenue to be compared Y o Y due to seasonality and festival effects.
  2. All cash will be deployed to music.
  3. Othe income from dividend and interest.
  4. 20% growth without investing in new music, if we invest in new music, it can be…
    Music Publishing:
  5. Music publishing or segment to grow at 22 to 25%, with the industry growing at 11%.
  6. OTT is the biggest share of revenues, Video stream platforms charge to users, while audio OTT still giving it almost free. Huge upside potential for the company when Audio OTT start charging a subscription to users.
  7. Royalty is around 10 to 15%.
  8. Public Performance Revenue is zero due to COVID. Once public performance opens, additional revenues will flow in.
    5.Investment is done on software, movie business and manpower now is time to monetize.
  9. Saregama gets good deals because they pay royalties and do good marketing.
  10. T series is the biggest competitor. Small players will shake out and only 3 or 4 bigger players will be in the music industry.
  11. As film music is not available, proactive and aggressive on non-film music, which is cheaper to film music but required good marketing. Song has to pull an audience.
  12. Profitability to continue upward, further operating leverage possible. Efficiencies are in.
  13. Retro music is popular. Short video platforms are giving good revenues, License music to OTT audio and video players, to brands like Marico, etc.
  14. All music rights have protection if movie-only release on OTT not in theaters. As theaters make music more famous.

FILMS and TV:

  1. 15 to 20% Revenue growth for Yoddllee.
  2. COLAR BOMB movie licensed. KD movie licensed to TV Channel. One more way to monetize movies. Once the first trench of licensing is over 3 to 11 years. Second trench of monetizing not yet decided. But will monetize as soon as the first license is over.
  3. 570 million views for south TV Serials on Youtube.
  4. Web series announce can be soon, once the agreement is done with leading OTT player.
  5. TV serial shoots are not happening now, due to lockdown, however, there is a buffer for approx 15 days. If lockdown goes more, no new episodes.

CARVAAN

  1. Tight cost control, no advertisement. 25% gross margin.
  2. Transition of carvaan from hardware to platform will be tested slowly once enough opportunity available.
  3. All carvaan sales by natural pull.

Disclosure: Invested

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Below article just posted on other threads like Music Labels and TIPS.
It give good insights and partly cover saregama also.

Music Industry

Disclosure: Invested