What is the worst case scenario for Sammaan capital on this case? Will any of the current management team get caught in the cross hairs? How much of the blame will fall on the erstwhile promoter and how much on the current management? The clarification letter issued by the company seems to be aimed at distancing itself from the erstwhile promoter. More importantly, have they fixed their problems. Does their learning from past business make their current business better?
I like all about IHC deal (even price is OK) except they want to keep current management (Mr. Banga) in place. if you want to really gauge assets quality, review has to be done by someone else than team who builds it (though i do not think there is any major write-off pending) but other guy who is free from expectation value fairly and write-off or whatever action is needed as he can always tell âthis is not my doingâ. Only common link between - 2019 IHFCL and 2025 Samman capital is current management so if IHC want they can certainly take some action - this is me thinking loud.
Invested and biased.
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Management is simultaneously running down the legacy book, revising its product mix, expanding into non-mortgage lending, and rebuilding operational architecture.
Growth plans are large, a scale-up in disbursements, expansion of the branch footprint, and a push to improve ROA through a lower cost of funds post-transaction. But almost all future guidance has been kept fluid until IHCâs regulatory clearance and integration. The single largest challenge is executing a complex transformation while stabilizing a business that is still carrying legacy issues and undergoing an ownership transition.
While the ongoing ownership transition adds complexity, itâs important to note that management has already guided for growth beginning Q3 onward, independent of IHCâs integration. The disbursement trajectory, branch rollout, and improvement in asset quality are part of the existing plan and not contingent solely on the new promoter.
In fact, several key metrics shared in recent quartersâAUM mix shift toward growth assets, improving credit costs, and early signs of ROA expansionâwere communicated before the IHC-related announcements. This shows the internal engine is already being rebuilt and aligned for scale.
The IHC development has created a layer of market hype, but the operational groundwork for the next phase was laid much earlier. Even without the IHC factor, the business was positioned to accelerate from Q3. The transition will certainly help structurally, but it isnât the only driver; the core business is already moving in the right direction.
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Iâd recommend you to not believe in management commentary, for reference do read FY 22 transcripts where Mr Banga targets 1,00,000 Cr of AUM by 2025.
We have to discount whatever the management is saying.
However, considering IHCâs history of acquisitions, over the past 10 years their portcoâs have seen a major uptick in both efficiency and scale.
Regarding the lawsuit, considering that we have already created a ~ Rs 8,300 Cr buffer under imputed provisions for the legacy book:
- The maximum liability (Assuming all fault lies with the company, not Sameer Gehlaut, which is unlikely but possible as the worst case scenario) as per the PIL could reach ~Rs 6,000-7,000 Cr (Assuming the PIL is completely accurate in tracing transactions and these transactions which have been initiated 10 years ago and completely repaid will have to be completely paid off by the company, seems unlikely but possible).
- If there is no liability or lesser liability and assuming the legacy book runs down, by FY 28 we can see this massive imputed provision book used as cash for generating income.
- While I do believe IHC would have done their Due Diligence, any serious developments can dilute existing shareholders further if IHC gets more leverage.
Hi all, thank you for your analysis. I am considering taking a position in SCL. However, one question that baffles me and I am not able to get past is the fact that the change in their accounting estimate SCL implemented in 2025 for the securitization of loans, i.e. for the loans they sell to other institution. SCL has changed from a market based estimated of repayment tenure to contractual based. In a nutshell, what they are assuming is that the loan will be only repaid based on the contractual life which is letâs say 20 years vs the market based estimate which is 7 years (as borrowers usually prepay there loan, so it is more realistic), thereby SCL is assuming that interest payments will continue to be received for the next 20 years and booking them all together now, while in reality borrowers will only pay the interest for 7-10 years as this is the actual time period under which the loans are usually repaid. They have book this as âNet gain on derecognition of financial instruments under amortised cost categoryâ of âš660 crore allowed them to show their Q2 results from loss making into a âš400 crore profit out of thin air. This is a pure case of window dressing. Could anyone please explain if I am missing something here?
Why would somebody invest in a company with a management trying to fool the investors? Itâs seems changing the name to Sammaan Capital was just for the sake of it.
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You are absolutely right. The accounting is atrocious.
why institutional investors like IHC did not consider this? or are they part of this or something retailers not knowing?
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Have any of you tried to access the latest FIR by Economic Offences Wing?
In the PR, company mentions that EOW has filed FIR and Sameer Gehlaut is the target, but it is a bit ambiguous on whether Sammaan Capital has been mentioned in the FIR or not.
On the FIR website, No.175 seems to be hidden.
PS: As per law, FIR can be hidden only if it has been categorised sensitive by the ACP/DCP.
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Just an observation - With all its trouble, ups and down, all the restructuring, all the changing in business model, somehow this company is able to report quarterly profit of exactly 300 crores plus or minus 30 crores in 13 out of last 14 quarters.
If RBI did not made that rule to take a hit in AIF portfolio, then sammaan might made 14 out of 14 quarters.
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