Do anyone knows has the breakup of the hotel properties are on lease vs owned by Samhi ? I tried referring to the latest annual report but couldn’t get details.
Understand that the hotel properties are mostly on long term leases as per the disclosure in AR.
I found this one to be more comprehensive with good data points
Hidden Profit of ₹236 Crores Triggers SAMHI Hotels Turnaround?
I was doing some back calculation based on the management commentary. Following are the points, I have captured from the last earning call:
Free cash flow generation for the FY25 will be around 225-250cr
Cash equivalent as of fy24 was 262cr and at the end of fy25 should be 512cr.
EBITDA will be around 3.5x Net debt
Net Debt = Total debt - Cash and cash equivalent.
Net Debt as of q1 fy25 is 1862cr and at the end of fy25 should be around 1620cr. I am just deducting the anticipated cash flow of 250cr.
So, the EBITDA should be around Net Debt/3.5, i.e, 460cr
PAT= EBITDA(460cr) - Depreciation(120cr) - C G&A(14cr, 3-4% of EBITDA) - Interest cost(200cr)
PAT= 126cr
Cash flow = EBITDA(460cr) - C G&A(14cr, 3-4% of EBITDA) - Interest cost(200cr)
Cash flow = 246cr
This is precisely the cash flow number that management outlined in the last earning call; hence, this somewhat proves the fact that the EBITDA for fy25 should be 460cr.
The valuation of 21x is the bare minimum; from my understanding, as this is the average valuation of the last 12 months. Although, I believe over the next 2 years the valuation should re-rate and thereby match that of peers such as Chalet, whose valuation is 33x.
EV= 460x21=9660
Mcap = EV-NetDebt = 9660-1612 = 8048cr
77% upside from here, i.e, the share price could be around 366 from 207 as on today.
Disc: Invested and biased
Putting down some of the things that I came across from management commentary and AR:
Inconsistent commentary on Capex numbers for planned renovation+new rooms+ACIC integration.
– In Q4FY24 concall, management claimed that company will spend 65Cr in FY25 for capex that includes all above activities
(1) 40Cr for renovation & new rooms
Some minor not-so-good things with loan given to others and MD.
Credit impairment of 35Cr for loans (to others) which was given in the same year.
Disc: Invested
Annual Report Update :- Samhi hotels limited
The company’s management is optimistic about both near-term and long-term growth, underpinned by favorable macroeconomic conditions and robust internal growth strategies. With anticipated improvements in EBITDA margins for same-store assets and the expectation that the ACIC portfolio margins will align with the overall portfolio by the fiscal year’s end, there is confidence in sustainable revenue and EBITDA growth. The company’s net debt stood at ₹1,860 crores as of June 30, 2024, with a cost of debt at 9.7%. Notably, ICRA has upgraded the company’s credit rating to A- stable, signaling an improved capital structure and stronger profitability metrics. There is also an expectation to further reduce the cost of debt below 9.5% through strategic refinancing of high-cost debt, which should support financial flexibility and enhance overall profitability.
Updated Investor Presentation
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/6b94b416-a578-46f5-bb9a-04576e3cf18e.pdf
Samhi generates 240 crore from its renovation and rebranding portfolio. However, I am concerned that these activities might disrupt ongoing operations. Could these disruptions result in a significant decrease in revenue of this portfolio until the renovations and rebranding are complete? I am interested in understanding if the rebranding and renovation efforts could temporarily impact this revenue stream.
Renovation and rebranding is an integral part of there business and which distinguishes Samhi from other hotel chains. This is a cost and time efficient way of adding new keys inventory to there portfolio. Once the renovation/rebranding is complete and asset starts sweating, operating leverage will kick in leading to expansion in Margins. Revenue will not decrease but per se and the expenses incurred during the period will be categorized as capital work in progress till the asset goes live.
I believe the Fed rate cut, can benefit highly leveraged players like, Samhi hotels, as per last quarter they had a debt of ~1800 crores and next 200 basis points cut by central bank by end of next year can reduce the interest cost around ~36 crores/annum, this should get reflected in numbers by the end of FY2026/2027.
X- @amitsinghpal
Do corporates borrow at floating rate or fixed rate? I used to think it was always fixed.
as stated by other user of this platforms in other threads too, it would be more beneficial, if you can maintain the same in google sheet and share it with us
This will add 142 rooms in Bangalore to their current portfolio.
142 rooms and can extend 200 more
Sweet! Fortune Select Trinity in Whitefield is being acquired for 205 crores, offering 142 rooms. Not a bad deal at all! With some additional investment for expansion, the capacity can be scaled up to 342 rooms. In terms of mcap value, Samhi is currently priced at around 1 crore per room, while Chalet is around 4-6 crores per room. Any new additions or renovations at these price levels are a bonus!
I felt the same. its useless to the forum unless he puts his data on a Google sheet.
@StonePitbull @is_this_overvalued @admins
I hear you. I think tracking these data points are important to find out whether the management is walking the talk or not. I don’t see such kind of tracking anywhere across the whole wide internet.
Can you please share what aspects of my post felt spammy or unhelpful? I would look to fix it.
Can this be made a google sheets link? This way, it gets updated live, and we don’t need to download the excel sheet each time it gets updated. Great initiative and thanks for all the work !
I am not sure about the some of the comments here, someone has put the time and effort, to list out the deliverable promised by the management, and posted it on the relevant threads, this forum can also be used as of personal notes, I don’t see how some call these are useless or spam, just because they didn’t get what they wanted (google sheet link), it’s uncalled for and truly not in the spirt of this wonderful platform.
P.s: Instead of being hostile, People should put in the work and read the concall themselves or just use it by start managing your own excel or just wait for someone else to post it here.
