Hi Sagar,
Can you elaborate on Stocks in your watch list?
Federal Bank: decrease in NPA,decent growth,low valuations for a Private Bank of its size.NIMs to improve post an eco. recovery.Will look good on a risk-reward basis,once it corrects 15-20%.
Everest Ind.: market leader in warehousing industry,old player,good corp. governance,low MCapâŚdue to abnormally poor construction activity.I think they showed a topline growth for the first time in Q4Fy14,after a few quarters of de-growth.In an eco. recovery scenario,delta will be big.
Guj. Pipavav: A play on exports as well as economic activity.After the Maersk takeover,the company has been transformed & is doing very well.Expect the good show to continue.However,valuations seem a bit on the higher side.
JBM Auto: Auto ancillary player.Very low valuations.Improved cost control & efficiencies,driving profits higher.
Adi Finechem: A very niche type of Specialty chemicals company.Trading at low valuations.Growth expected to be very strong.Excellent manufacturing practices.
Atul: Consistent grower available at cheap valuations(up 20% today,already!) Debottlenecking of capacities & higher demand for products,to boost profitability.Good corporate governance.Has already created decent wealth over the years.
Firstsource: Management change leading to a turnaround.Steady cash flows to help in steady reduction of debt,leading to high PAT growth.Better deal wins will be icing on the cake.Stock quiet reasonably valued.
Arrow Coated: At an inflection point.A very unique company(environment friendly packaging solutions) Owns a decent no. of patents already.EPS for Fy14 @ 12-13.Trading at 6X TTM,with a possibility of exponential growth.Has exposure in Developed markets too.Earning 30% PAT margin.Worth a punt.
The rally is assuming crazy proportions now.Looking to partially exit Alembic P.,if it comes near 280-290.Not bearish on the company at all,just that the markets will start differentiating among exporters,once the Rupee starts appreciating again.Good thing that the Pharma stocks I own,are doing well even now(Marksans,Granules,Ajanta,Suven) Same applies to IT stocks/sector as well.
Recent purchases include: some more VST Tillers,Bhagwati Auto & Can Fin Homes.Exited VGL.
Trimmed stake in Alembic P.Looking at adding to Finolex Cables & Ajanta.Will closely watch Q1 of Marksans.The story seems to have played out here.Added RS Software last week.Niche sector,big market opportunity,decent yield,high RoCE,cash rich,low valuationsâŚsome concerns on the Corp. Governance front,but the valuations are too cheap.So far,so good.
Do you still hold Suven Life? I believe they have come out with spectacular results given their conservative management !
Hi Siddharth,
I certainly DO hold SLS.Mr. Jasti had guided for a 450cr. topline & a near 0% PAT growth for FY15.However,Q1 is telling another story.It is a unique company that isnât well understood by the markets(yes,inspite of a near 4x gain,YoY) FY15 onwards,there will be high revenue visibility & the stock could easily be trading at 250-300.All this sounds speculative at the moment,but I stay very bullish.Debt levels are low & SUVN-502 can be a game changer.A strong Patent bank of 600+ is an added asset.
Planning to add,but SLS refuses to correct!
Sagar. I hv started nibbling in SLS but notedsome TA experts in niceworld mardi FB gr talking about 80-90 levels. If it happens, I will gladly add more. I wish PAT wd hv been better
I recently added finolex cable around 200 but Q1 wasnât great. I missed adding on the sink on that day at 185. What r the long term prognosis?
Coming back to APIL, I completely exited at 330 and post Q1 even indianivesh recommended a better entry point in future but the stock refuses to correct. When I had it, it used to test my patience during the 330-240 plunge. Q1 was ok and valuations have become higher.
I have this problem - when I exit a stock for good reasons, I run to others like a kalyanamandap dog that there will be something better elsewhere and that is how the APIL to FC story happened. Advice pl?
Kalyan,
Alembic is gradually becoming an insttl. darling.Re-rating has taken it all the way upto 30x todayâŚat 400! These are quiet crazy valautions for me,but given the high amts. of interest in the co.,downsides will be bought quickly.I too,have sold my holdings at 356.Sitting on some cash now.
SLS is a bit tricky.Their biz. is not well understood & lacks earnings visibility(unlike Alembic,Ajanta,Ipca,Glenmark,etc.) But,visibility will rise from FY16 & re-rating will certainly take place.The promoter too,is very honest & conservative in projections.I feel SLS has one of the finest R&D teams for CNS,in the country.Its a unique company & should command a premium.Remains a solid buy on dips.Q2 will give greater help in projections.
Regarding the urge to âswitchâ,its a personal issue.Heres what I feel: Since we are seeing many stocks run up everyday,it fills us with impatience & one feels left out if he/she is sitting on cash.But,this is where we need to learn discipline.Buying should only be done when a stock is trending down.So,DO add SLS & Finolex C. on dips of 10% or more.FC is an excellent long-term story.New prdt. launches will happen by the year end & contribute in Q4FY15.Margins should improve & so should valuations.Cash flow generation is very good,too.So,all in all,its a bit of a patience game,that should reward us in the medium to long-term.
Disc.: Invested in SLS,FC,AjantaâŚexited APL. 
Dear Sagar,
I recently wrote to Suven Lifescience Limitedâs Mr. Jasti about their progress on SUVN502, and below is the reply i got from them:
"We have completed Phase 1b study of SUVN-502 and the expected to file for the start of Phase 2a study. The first such meeting with key opinion leaders likely to happen in October/Nov and then we file our protocol for start of the study.
Usually, when we file the protocol with FDA and also with Ethics Committee, it normally takes 3 months to initiate the study. FDA need not approve the protocol and if we do not hear from them with queries, we can initiate the study anytime after 30 days of filing.
It will be difficult at this point of time to estimate the market size SUVN-502 likely to capture. Current market for Alezhimer is more than $5 Bn and it has huge unmet medical need."
SUVN502 is in deed a game changer for them. Also i would like to say that the mgmt of SLS is very very conservative. Mr Jasti often comes and speaks on CNBC Awaaz on their progress.
The existing CRAMS biz. is going great guns as well. I am super Bullish on SLS for the next 5 years!
Disc: Invested heavily @ below 100 levels.
Thanks for posting Siddarth!
SLS seems to have attracted attention,thanks to CNBCâs continued attempts to understand the company.If you would remember,I always thought that âlack of understanding of the companyâ,was holding the valuations back.SLS has one cylinder firing(CRAMS),which will get very steady after this fiscal(Ref.: 2014 AR) The other space: Capital intensive R&D,is like a lottery & for me,it was TOTALLY free.What a bargain SLS was,an year back! Stock was up 20% today,amid hefty volumes(last seen after Q2FY14 results)
Disc.: Invested since last SeptemberâŚbit fortunate to have caught it there.
Hi Sagar,
Greetings for the day!
Monday seems like a big day for SLS. The company is going toconsider fund raising programmes through various means to the tune ofINR 120 Cr (amount taken from Business standard article).
Most likely to be a private equity Investor.
Your views are most welcomed.
Hi Siddharth,
You are probably getting a bit too excited about todayâs board meet.This is just a resolution that has been passed,we donât know yet whether SLS will go for debt or QIP or FCCBs or rights issue.Reminds me of âMulti Brand Retailâ,stocks had got excited just on the announcement aloneâŚbut there has been NO investor,as on date.
The move will happen only once the profile of the investor & mode of fund raising is known.Up till then,the stock will move on fundamentals & a bit of speculation.
Woah!
So we have had a raging Bull market.Which gives signs of building up froth time & again,but doesnât correct more than 5%!! Of late,I had taken a lot of opportunistic bets in some smallcaps.Almost all of them have done very well.However,I have liquidated most of themâŚowing to sharp rise & risks of price/time correction.Avanti continues to be the top holding.
Adi Fine: 6% [recent addition]
Avanti Feeds: 15%
Ajanta: 8%
Can Fin: 5%
Finolex Cables: 6.5%
Granules: 8%
Hester Biosciences: 7% [recent addition]
Marksans: 4% [sold off most holdings,due to steep rise/high valuations]
MM Forgings: 6.5% [recent addition]
Sonata: 8% [recent addition]
Suven: 8%
Tech M: 6%
Thinksoft: 5%
VST Tillers: 5%
Fringe/trading positions in: JBM Auto,Ahmednagar,Birla Corp.
Btw,burnt my hands in Bodal Chemicals recently.
P.S.: Hope this doesnât violate any of SEBIâs guidelines.Admin,kindly remove the post in case of any violation.
Its funny Sagar but Avanti, Ajanta and Adi also come within the top 4 holdings in my portfolio in the same order!
It has been a great year for good stock pickers.The three things for which I will boast & give a pat on my back(yes,to myself!) would be:
- Staying away from the crazy run in
cyclicals,especially Infra/Construction,etc. Even when the chorus was extremely loud - Sticking with my assessment of Rupee/Dollar equation & thus,staying invested in Pharma/IT stocks.
- Sticking & adding Avanti,when it was in the incubator.Company was doing superb,but stock continued to lag at 5-6x P/E.That is thepowerof a single stock.It is 15% of my portfolio today! And I have no plans to sell.JBMA was another good decision.
Of course,I still have a lot to learn.I am continuously surprised by the returns given by Eicher/Astral/Gruh in the past year.Expensive stocks just getting more & more expensive! That is not my cup of tea.Though,I hold a few expensive ones myselfâŚI am not chasing any of them at CMP.But who knows? They may start totradeat 80x TTM earnings!
Looking forward to a good 2015.Even 25% will do. 
Dear Sagar
How has been your PF performance ? No updates since last 5 years ? You hv been a phenomenal stock picker .Many VPers wud be keenly looking forward to your picks & your views on mkt.
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Thanks. I think there are much better stock pickers here at VP itself. But since youâve asked for an update,Iâll oblige.
2015,2016,2017 were great years. 2018 was crappy and I was completely wrong on the market cycle. I had exited many names by end-2017,but lost 10-30% in most new entries. I would say 2018 first quarter was a very good & much needed leveler for me. Then re-positioned myself in mid-2018 & performance picked up. Stayed away from the ilk of HDFC twins,D-mart,HUL,Nestle and many such high flyers of that period since I didnât have valuation comfort. Then,2019 was turning out to be another bad year but performance picked up in the latter half. Barring the vicious month of March,2020 performance has been quiet decent ever since. Portfolio is mostly tilted towards Pharma,Agri stocks and holding just one Financial. On the market,I feel 2020 will be a stock specific year. Lot of money to be made in some names and few of them will look obvious in hindsight.
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Thank you for the insights
Share your recent portfolio
HiâŚwhat is your current portfolio? And when u started this thread, you had mutual funds proportion of 66% and stocks 33%âŚHow has been the current proportions? What has been your 10 year and 5 year CAGR compared to mutual funds???