MFIs may grapple with muted growth, higher stress in FY25 - The Hindu BusinessLine,
Also, check the care rating report.
All these articles, and reports from Sadhan, MFIN, CBs and CRAs, are lagged. They are just extrapolating Q1 stress without any additional on ground data.
Also, lets not forget that Fusion is highly geographically concentrated in a few states which is of their own doing.
Good candid discussion with Samit Vartak (SageOne Investment)
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The Alpha Ideas SME Stars 2024 was a great meet. Listening first hand to promoters of this emerging companies and also catching up with Senior investors on the sidelines.
Click on the links under the company name to capture the presentations on Youtube and the PPT column contains the links for their Investor Presentations uploaded on the stock exchanges
| Company | PPT | Mcap | Sales | PAT | OCF | P/E | EV/OCF | Promoters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addictive Learning Technology Ltd | PPT | 596.85 | 63.93 | 6.53 | 124.86 | 91.4 | 30.06 | 66.07 | |
| Advait Infratech Ltd | PPT | 1818.17 | 208.85 | 21.88 | 24.9 | 70.53 | -176.38 | 69.44 | |
| Aimtron Electronics Ltd | 867.28 | 92.54 | 13.6 | 15.6 | 63.72 | 130.81 | 71.29 | ||
| Beacon Trusteeship Ltd | 210.46 | 20.88 | 5.16 | 40.65 | 40.79 | 35.5 | 46.15 | ||
| Chaman Metallics Ltd | 271.03 | 188.87 | 12.52 | 62.91 | 21.39 | 19.89 | 73.6 | ||
| Chavda Infra Ltd | 441.22 | 241.66 | 18.76 | -49.83 | 23.51 | -21.69 | 73 | ||
| Cosmic CRF Ltd | PPT | 1198.55 | 253.48 | 12.75 | -66.72 | 94 | -46.11 | 61.24 | |
| Madhusudan Masala Ltd | PPT | 233.49 | 162.22 | 9.2 | -177.47 | 25.38 | -9.98 | 73.69 | |
| Power & Instrumentation (Gujarat) Ltd | PPT | 290.57 | 97.49 | 5.89 | 41.48 | 43.04 | 35.95 | 40.95 | |
| Premier Roadlines Ltd | 274.35 | 228.51 | 12.62 | 4.32 | 21.76 | 76.28 | 73.65 | ||
| Proventus Agrocom Ltd | 583.91 | 496.77 | 7.21 | -68.67 | 156.13 | -98.42 | 70.84 | ||
| Silicon Rental Solutions Ltd | PPT | 268.61 | 63.25 | 12.9 | 152.35 | 20.9 | 12.77 | 73.67 |
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Great presentation from Kuntal Shah on the Art of Selling.
Here’s the thread from the author:
and the presentation: https://www.flame.edu.in/pdfs/fil/presentations/The-Art-of-selling-Kuntal-Shah-Sept2024.pdf
Key takeaways:
Thinking in inversion is a very effective, helps you determine between Hold / Sell / Trim
A good summary of all the pointers that lead to selling
People often underestimate the recovery needed to break even from a loss
Good summary - decision journal; staggered selling; business first
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5 Key Courses for India to become an Advanced Economy
- Improved institutions of governance, public finances and decentralisation
- widespread high-quality education,
- reduced gender disparities,
- increased focus on innovation and competitiveness with factor-market reforms, not just import protection and industrial policy
- a more aggressive reduction in dependence on coal.
Looking forward to the second part of this series to understand these five courses in more details
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Good one from @basumallick da, lessons encapsulated as this helps in quick retention.
Watch from 12:25 timestamp on this video
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Amazing level of clarity even in complex topics, the Gemini model from Google is getting better day by day. And this one is the small Gemini flash.
Hey Gemini, taking the perspective of an equity investor in the Indian share market, highlight the key impact in a few bullet points and suggest some specific remedial action for equity investments in general
From the perspective of an equity investor in the Indian share market, the key impacts of a stronger US dollar and increased global trade tensions, as described in the article, are:
- Rupee Depreciation: A weakening Rupee against the dollar will reduce the value of returns from Indian equities when converted to other currencies. This is particularly relevant for foreign investors.
- Increased Inflation: Higher import costs due to a stronger dollar will likely lead to increased inflation in India, potentially impacting corporate profitability and consumer spending.
- Reduced Export Competitiveness: Indian companies heavily reliant on exports may see reduced sales and profits due to a less competitive pricing environment.
- Sectoral Impact: Sectors heavily reliant on imports (e.g., oil & gas, certain manufacturing sectors) will face higher input costs, while export-oriented sectors (e.g., IT, textiles) may experience reduced demand.
- Market Volatility: Increased global uncertainty will likely lead to greater volatility in the Indian equity market, making it harder to predict returns.
Specific Remedial Actions for Equity Investments:
- Diversification: Broaden your portfolio across sectors and market caps to reduce the impact of any single sector’s underperformance. Consider adding exposure to sectors less sensitive to currency fluctuations and import costs.
- Currency Hedging: For investors with significant foreign currency exposure, consider using hedging strategies to mitigate the risk of rupee depreciation.
- Focus on Domestic-Oriented Companies: Shift some allocation towards companies with a strong domestic focus and less reliance on exports or imports. These businesses are likely to be less affected by currency fluctuations and trade wars.
- Fundamental Analysis: Strengthen your fundamental analysis to identify companies with strong balance sheets, robust business models, and pricing power to withstand inflationary pressures.
- Value Investing: Look for undervalued companies that may offer attractive returns even in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- Long-Term Perspective: Maintain a long-term investment horizon. Short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, but a long-term perspective can help weather economic storms.
- Regular Portfolio Review: Regularly review and rebalance your portfolio to ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals, adapting to changing market conditions.
- Consider Defensive Sectors: Allocate a portion of your portfolio to defensive sectors like consumer staples and pharmaceuticals, which tend to be less sensitive to economic downturns.
It’s crucial to remember that these are general recommendations. Specific investment strategies should be tailored to individual risk tolerance, investment goals, and knowledge. Consulting with a qualified financial advisor is always recommended before making any significant investment decisions.
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#AlphaIdeas 20-20 Summit 2024
Live Performance Tracking Sheet
Courtesy X Handle: @13gaurdevesh
Key insights summary. Courtesy X Handle: @kajikatlu
Follow the hyperlinks for stock specific summary.
Consolidated PDF attached. 20-20 Summary.pdf (1.7 MB)
1. Indostar Capital - Danesh Mistry
2. Hawkins India - Prajesh Maroo
3. NSE India (Unlisted) - Pritesh Vora
4. Cantabil Retail - Anshul Saigal
5. JM Financial - Jatin khemani
7. Greaves Cotton - Tushar Bohra
8. Sunteck Realty - Rushmik Oza
9. KRN Heat Exchanger - Abhisar Jain
10. Shankara Building Products - Abhinav & Raghav Aggarwal
11. Sai Silks Kalamandir - Ashwini Agrawal
12. Welspun Corp - Rakesh Laroia
13. Arvind Smartspaces - Ishmohit Arora
14. India Shelter Finance - Darshan Deora
15. E2E Networks - Sivaramakrishnan R
16. SAREGAMA INDIA - Aashish Upglanawar
18. Atlanta Limited - Ankit Kanodia
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Assisted Senior Living can become a big theme in India over the coming years. This space has grown consistently over the past decade and will grow more with NRIs targeting retirement homes
With rate cuts anticipated in 2025, it might be a good time to look at debt funds and revamp your fixed income portfolio maintaining the right debt:equity balance
Even with the tax changes, debt funds offer a few significant benefits compared to bank fixed deposits. Many are simply not aware of these and hence the preference for Bank FDs which is a limiting product in many aspects
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Thanks Rudra,
Where can we get the list of debt funds available to invest?
If it’s possible, please let us know which debt fund you have invested?
Hi Jagdish,
This article might be of help.
There are websites like Valueresearch and Morningstar that help with you with detailed comparison and analysis of debt funds as well.
I have investments in a few that suits my current objectives, however those might not meet yours.
Please consult a qualified financial advisor for specific recommendations that suits your portfolio and future goals.
Happy Investing!
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Good time to focus on asset allocation. All of my incremental investments is focused on fixed income instruments at present
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With the Bhartia group taking over Coke’s bottling franchise, expect a listing in the short to medium term, along the lines of Varun Beverages. All 4 entities will provide strong compounding opportunities for next 10-20 years as consumption grows with rising GDP/capita
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Everyone wants to enjoy the party till it is too late. There is only a few exits and a stampede is inevitable when stocks listing at 80-90 PE are going further up by 30-40% the FOMO and TINA are keeping the equity ship ahead. But how long is the question?
A timely warning here,
Sometime within the next 6 months - a sudden 30-40% crash is expected that will take everyone unaware. We are just conscious of that - not hoping for it.
Silver and Gold will create enormous wealth - ( potentially 30% and 100% appreciation respectively for Gold and Silver in year 2025 ) - a rerating event will likely happen like the 1970’s - we are positioned accordingly.
A lot of people are selling their family silver to buy Tesla and Nvidia and MAG-7 - these will correct by a min of 50% in the next 6-8 months if not earlier.
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Thanks for sharing. What makes the author’s opinion worth considering? My thoughts on reading the article: He mentions equities will have a sudden fall, and alternative assets will go up by how much in what timeframe. Still, he holds equities but hedged them with options. He is also selling options on his crash list. Why so much hard work when he could easily buy alternative assets and make excellent returns basis his forecast?
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Thanks @Surender for sharing your thoughts.
I value the author and hence deliberating on his post.
Equities are fairly expensive compared to their baseline, aided by impending lower growth in India, ramifications from Trump’s actions post assuming presidency and global curb on consumption and spending in general - all points to a position of caution, amidst all the wars and dampening micro.
For investors, I don’t think changing your asset allocation drastically in favour of debt/commodity/alternatives and coming out of equities completely is a feasibility.
Hence a more prudent stance will be to hedge your bets and also keep readying a cash war chest and keep your buy list sharp.
Pulak Prasad (Nalanda Capital) narrates such a phase where readiness led them buy fearlessly during the covid fall. Nalanda - as a conservative and “holding forever” player - started selling their large positions over the past few months.
The higher capital gains taxes are also a demotivator for easy exits as you hand over so much to the Govt. All in all, there are a few things investors can do at this point,
- Reduce leverage - by all means
- Move incremental capital to other asset classes
- Start partial profit booking (at least) for most frothy bets in your portfolio
- Keep a cash war chest and a buy list ready
To each his own!
Happy Investing!
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ValueQuest’s annual letter. A great read as always,
If you had told me a year ago that we would witness a heady mix of 60+ elections worldwide (including two of the most important and impactful ones from an Indian perspective, in the USA and India), several state elections, two raging world conflicts, a serious policy shift from the monetary easing of the last 15 years, the return of government-led stimulus in China (albeit with no real impact yet), a record FPI outflow, and the vagaries of weather among other things, and that amidst this volatility, Indian markets and our portfolios would be where they are today, there is nothing else to feel but gratitude.
We believe, India’s growth story rides on a modern economic Troika: Real Estate, Private Capex, and the Consumption Cycle.
It’s always easy to constantly see that the glass is half empty and have a pessimistic outlook, but being “opportunistic & optimistic” and seeing the glass half full while having moderate expectations and a focus on high quality stock selection will be an essential mantra for 2025.
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