Hemant Sir,
1.Which smallcaps will you invest in, If smallcap index breaks 5000 and 4870 and reaches lows of 2008…
2.If the index trades in 5000-5700 range, which stocks are good to get into now
Regards
Please find the price performance of most of the listed names since 8th of January ie peak of the BSE mid cap index.
This does not adjust for the corporate actions therefore the likes of orient paper have corrected 90%.
The list of top performers is also very interesting
Kindly go to the link to access the full list of stocks
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Ar55s_sCPoredHVoVEE0TXhHQXRuZC15Ym94VFZMY3c&usp=sharing
| Name | 08/01/2013 | Last price | Change | Mar cap |
| ORIENT PAPER & INDUSTRIES | 80.25 | 7.5 | -91% | 153 |
| RUSHIL DECOR LTD | 344.5 | 49.2 | -86% | 71 |
| GUJARAT SIDHEE CEMENT LTD | 52.4 | 7.9 | -85% | 28 |
| CORE EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGIE | 320.45 | 49.9 | -84% | 561 |
| DHANUS TECHNOLOGIES LTD | 1.25 | 0.2 | -84% | |
| ARSHIYA INTERNATIONAL LIMITE | 121.65 | 22.1 | -82% | 130 |
| JINDAL COTEX LTD | 88.75 | 16.8 | -81% | 76 |
| BLUE CIRCLE SERVICES LTD | 50.4 | 9.6 | -81% | 194 |
| GRAVITA INDIA LTD | 184.4 | 35.1 | -81% | 239 |
| AQUA LOGISTICS LTD | 15.7 | 3.1 | -81% | 91 |
| SUDAR INDUSTRIES LTD | 164.65 | 32.3 | -80% | 60 |
| AANJANEYA LIFECARE LTD | 742.3 | 155.7 | -79% | 216 |
| CHROMATIC INDIA LTD | 125.15 | 26.4 | -79% | 188 |
| CREST ANIMATION STUDIOS LTD | 16.7 | 3.7 | -78% | 8 |
| ROYAL INDIA CORP LTD | 127.1 | 28.5 | -78% | 66 |
| ONELIFE CAPITAL ADVISORS LTD | 747.6 | 169.9 | -77% | 227 |
| TUNI TEXTILE MILLS LTD | 90.8 | 21.5 | -76% | 280 |
| PG ELECTROPLAST LTD | 382.9 | 95.0 | -75% | |
| ESAAR INDIA LTD | 61 | 15.6 | -75% | 127 |
| TULIP TELECOM LTD | 33.05 | 8.8 | -74% | 127 |
| PUNJAB COMMUNICATIONS LTD | 170.95 | 45.9 | -73% | 55 |
| SHREE NATH COMMERCIAL & FIN | 81 | 22.0 | -73% | 263 |
| P M TELELINKS LTD | 32.85 | 9.1 | -72% | 9 |
| A2Z MAINTENANCE AND ENGINEER | 59.6 | 16.6 | -72% | 123 |
| CCL INTERNATIONAL LTD | 133.75 | 38.7 | -71% | 371 |
| COMMERCIAL ENGINEERS & BODY | 92.65 | 27.5 | -70% | 151 |
| GEMINI COMMUNICATIONS LTD | 7.75 | 2.4 | -70% | 13 |
| KGN INDUSTRIES LTD | 15.7 | 4.9 | -69% | 110 |
| JRI INDUSTRIES & INFRASTRUCT | 58 | 18.3 | -68% | 49 |
| ASAHI INDUSTRIES LTD | 25.9 | 8.3 | -68% | 55 |
| BILCARE LTD | 224.15 | 73.1 | -67% | 172 |
| BARTRONICS INDIA LTD | 27.1 | 9.1 | -67% | 31 |
| SPANCO LTD | 29.15 | 10.0 | -66% | 28 |
| AMAR REMEDIES LTD | 45.2 | 15.7 | -65% | 41 |
| MMTC LTD | 637.6 | 227.5 | -64% | 22,750 |
| DB REALTY LTD | 161.15 | 57.7 | -64% | 1,404 |
| PRITI MERCANTILE CO LTD | 283.2 | 104.4 | -63% | 279 |
| KGN ENTERPRISES LTD | 372.95 | 139.5 | -63% | 285 |
| POLYTEX INDIA LTD | 252.3 | 94.6 | -63% | 128 |
| GEODESIC LTD | 25.35 | 9.5 | -63% | 86 |
| PAREKH ALUMINEX LTD | 262.4 | 99.3 | -62% | 128 |
| EVERONN EDUCATION LTD | 139.6 | 53.2 | -62% | 116 |
| ABG INFRALOGISTICS LTD | 118.1 | 45.5 | -61% | 54 |
| SHRI LAKSHMI COTSYN LTD | 74.85 | 29.1 | -61% | 82 |
| SUJANA TOWERS LTD | 6 | 2.4 | -61% | 122 |
| HOUSING DEVELOPMENT & INFRAS | 118.2 | 46.5 | -61% | 1,948 |
| SHIV-VANI OIL & GAS EXPLORAT | 104.75 | 41.4 | -60% | 192 |
| INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIE | 13.75 | 5.5 | -60% | 46 |
| UNITED BREWERIES HOLDINGS LT | 104.95 | 42.0 | -60% | 281 |
| IVRCL LTD | 46.45 | 19.0 | -59% | 507 |
| PRAKASH CONSTROWELL LTD | 18.75 | 7.9 | -58% | 99 |
| EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS LTD | 149.75 | 62.9 | -58% | 604 |
| SANTOWIN CORP LTD | 2.92 | 1.2 | -58% | 1 |
| PARABOLIC DRUGS LTD | 13.75 | 5.8 | -58% | 36 |
| HORIZON INFRASTRUCTURE LTD | 223.2 | 94.6 | -58% | 102 |
| RAMKY INFRASTRUCTURE LTD | 127.85 | 54.2 | -58% | 310 |
| INDIA TOURISM DEVELOPMENT | 1680.95 | 717.3 | -57% | 6,152 |
| MARG LTD | 49.3 | 21.1 | -57% | 80 |
| DION GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LTD | 43.1 | 18.5 | -57% | 60 |
| TITAGARH WAGONS LTD | 372.95 | 160.6 | -57% | 322 |
| GOKUL REFOILS & SOLVENT LTD | 45.1 | 19.9 | -56% | 262 |
| ISMT LTD | 23.15 | 10.2 | -56% | 149 |
| OPTO CIRCUITS INDIA LTD | 111.15 | 49.5 | -55% | 1,199 |
| PRADIP OVERSEAS LTD | 17.21 | 7.7 | -55% | 37 |
| DQ ENTERTAINMENT INTL LTD | 19.95 | 9.1 | -55% | 72 |
| ASTRAZENECA PHARMA INDIA LTD | 1404.35 | 639.1 | -54% | 1,598 |
| DECCAN CHRONICLE HLDGS LTD | 6.65 | 3.1 | -54% | 74 |
| WELSPUN CORP LTD | 107.85 | 49.8 | -54% | 1,134 |
| AUTOLINE INDUSTRIES LTD | 144.2 | 66.6 | -54% | 81 |
| SHASUN PHARMACEUTICALS LTD | 137 | 63.4 | -54% | 349 |
| GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE LTD | 27.5 | 12.8 | -54% | 57 |
| VMS INDUSTRIES LTD | 36.85 | 17.2 | -53% | 28 |
| TRANSGENE BIOTEK LTD | 4.35 | 2.1 | -53% | 13 |
| HINDUSTAN DORR-OLIVER LTD | 26.35 | 12.5 | -53% | 90 |
| ALLIED DIGITAL SERVICES LTD | 21.35 | 10.1 | -53% | 47 |
| INDIA STEEL WORKS LTD | 4.61 | 2.2 | -52% | 51 |
| VERITAS INDIA LTD | 52.35 | 25.0 | -52% | 61 |
| ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEN | 23.85 | 11.5 | -52% | 113 |
| ORBIT CORPORATION LTD | 56.95 | 27.4 | -52% | 312 |
| HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION CO | 105.7 | 51.0 | -52% | 665 |
| WELSPUN PROJECTS LTD | 22.8 | 11.2 | -51% | 45 |
| ORISSA SPONGE IRON & STEEL | 142 | 69.8 | -51% | 188 |
| STERLING BIOTECH LTD | 7.55 | 3.8 | -50% | 100 |
| SHRISTI INFRA DVLP CORP LTD | 192.85 | 96.0 | -50% | 213 |
| PREMIER LTD | 142.2 | 70.9 | -50% | 215 |
| SHREE ASHTAVINAYAK CINEVISIO | 2.6 | 1.3 | -50% | 107 |
| KS OILS LTD | 4.35 | 2.2 | -49% | 94 |
| PENINSULA LAND LTD | 77.05 | 39.6 | -49% | 1,106 |
| APW PRESIDENT SYSTEMS LTD | 193.95 | 100.0 | -48% | 60 |
| PLETHICO PHARMACEUTICALS LTD | 309.3 | 159.7 | -48% | 544 |
| MANAPPURAM FINANCE LTD | 45.1 | 23.6 | -48% | 813 |
| BEML LTD | 284.05 | 148.5 | -48% | 618 |
| MADHUCON PROJECTS LTD | 40.75 | 21.4 | -48% | 158 |
| PETRON ENGINEERING CONST LTD | 137.4 | 72.4 | -47% | |
| TIMEX GROUP INDIA LTD | 25.15 | 13.3 | -47% | 134 |
| ELANTAS BECK INDIA LTD | 1180.25 | 624.7 | -47% | 495 |
| BHARATI SHIPYARD LTD | 71.05 | 37.8 | -47% | 1,196 |
| GOKALDAS EXPORTS LTD | 69.5 | 37.0 | -47% | 127 |
| BF UTILITIES LTD | 374.8 | 200.4 | -47% | 755 |
| ANKIT METAL & POWER LTD | 25.15 | 13.5 | -46% | 129 |
| WEST COAST PAPER MILLS LTD | 109.5 | 58.8 | -46% | 263 |
| SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE | 48.15 | 25.9 | -46% | 1,303 |
| ARSS INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS | 52.45 | 28.3 | -46% | 42 |
| VISAGAR FINANCIAL SERVICES L | 4.42 | 2.4 | -46% | 8 |
| GAMMON INDIA LTD | 41.8 | 22.7 | -46% | 308 |
mallikarjun,
first of all please drop the “sir”. i am also a student of the market just like you and many others here.
regarding your questions, if smallcap index were to break the 5000 levels and head towards 2008 lows, then nothing will be safe to invest in. i would then let the index reach there and start to show signs of some bottoming before we could think of what to buy.
if the index settles down in the range here, then i would look at all the quality smallcaps which have been reporting consistent results but have been beaten down because of non-fundamental reasons. i believe we could see oppurtunities in different stocks in different times rather than all of them together. e.g. is what happened to wimplast today. we need to look out for such oppurtunities and use them rather than waiting for absolute bottom. market is in capitulation phase in smallcaps and such capitulations could go on for months but when it does get over, it throws out once in a decade-like oppurtunities like in 2008.
Did anybody look at Engineers India Limited? A company with zero debt, 4% yield, high ROCE(50% almost) and 20%+ growth. It has almost 1700 crore cash in BS. It has a great name in oil sector as a consultant.
The investment cycle and PSU tags seems to be major deterrent at this juncture. Am I missing something?
Dear Raj,
As per an article in Mint quoted by equity master “EILhas decided to cancel a Rs 3,000 m worth of order awarded to a Ferna’s construction company forIOC Paradip refinery. It has also recommended the cancellation of another Rs 18,000 m contract awarded to the same company for a petrochemical complex of ONGC Petro additions Ltd (OPaL). The total contract value is a whopping Rs 21,000 m. Compare this to the order book of Rs 38,743 m at the end of December 2012 and one would understand the financial implication of the cancellation of the orders.The reason why EIL has recommended the cancellation is on the allegations that Ferna got these orders on the back of a fake certificate. It has written to the Central Vigilance Commission as well as the attorney general’s opinion on the contracts. Following their response the company had decided to help the CBI in its investigations on the first contract. It also recommended the cancellations of the two contracts”.
If I am correct they had 2200 crores of cash as of end march 2012. By end of march this should rise to around 2500 crores. that is like half of the market cap of 5079 crores in cash.
Compelling bargain if one is convinced about the recovery of Indian capex cycle.
"EILhas forIOC orders.The
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Thanks Saji for the details. This looks a little scary when I came across the following article.
Thanku Hemant bhaiya
Presently reading BEATING THE STREET by Peter Lynch. Here is what he says:
“Bargains are the holy grail of a true stock picker. The fact that 10-30 percent of our net worth is lost in a market sell-off is of little consequence. We see the latest correction not as a disaster but as an opportunity to acquire more shares at low prices. This is how great fortunes are made overtime.”
Hi Hemant,
Any updates after the recent bounce back in mid and small caps? How does the charts look now? Are there any clear messages in the chart? is this a trend reversal or just a blip in the downtrend?
Your views are valuable for small investors without any technical skills like me!
Thanks,
Balaji.
Hitesh bhai, your views are valuable too. Please give your comments.
Regards,
Balaji.
hi balaji,
script seems to be playing as expected with the awaited bounceback playing out now. the two lines in the sand for me are 5000 on the downside or 6700 on the upside for the smallcap index. until one or the other is broken, smallcaps may remain rangebound. in the bounceback many individual stocks shouldretrace 50-61.8% of the recent fall. until 5000-6700 range is broken there are no definite clues either side.
Hi Hemant,
Thanks so much for the immediate response as always.
Regards,
Balaji.
shouldretrace
I personally dont have much idea about market direction, but have been following vivek patil’s technical write up on icicidirect.com and till now he seems to have got things right. He further predicts a bear market lasting some 12-14 months from the time markets made a top. That should see the bear market carrying on till march 14. I guess even if that were to happen, there would be pockets of outperformance by various stocks based on their fundamentals and that should be our focus area.
Looking at broad macro picture to correlate with this impending and predicted correction I think political uncertainty, some bad news on Korea front or maybe US or Europe front may play spoilsport for Indian markets. The FII guys have been enthusiastically pumping money to no avail. Markets still seem to be very weak inspite of FIIs being aggressive buyers. I would fear to see the scenario once they turn sellers. If and when that happens nobody knows.
For us the formula remains simple. To buy what companies about which we know and have maximum conviction and be prepared to buy more on dips.
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SEBI has recently introduced the new norms categorizing almost 2200 stocks as illiquid. As per the rules, trading in these stocks will happen via CAll Auction system every hour.
We feel the above rules are disastrous and without any specific logic. In trying to curb manipulation, they have almost killed the liquidity in these stocks. This things hurts the investor sentiment in a big way and makes genuine investing even tougher.
I have raised the problems by writing emails to the SEBI etc -https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9346528/SEBI%20Call%20Auction%20system%20for%20illiquid%20stocks.docx
Would request members to also take up this issue and write email to SEBI -chairman@sebi.gov.in and have our voices heard.
Ayush
PS: Moneylife has also actively taken up this issue
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You have covered the points very nicely Ayush. Will it be ok to send the same content to SEBI with just the sender name changed ?
Regards
Raja
commodities are seeing selloffs across the board with brent oil trading close to 100 levels now. this is turning macros a lot in india’s favour. if government continues with reforms and RBI shows some sort of inclination towards growth as well, we could see good times soon.
@Raj - Yes, you may forward the same matter
Ayush,
Your word doc is good. Covered most of the points. But you suggested, having just only 1 hr auction cycle everyday and rest as normal trade. My point is instead of putting the onus on the company to bring more traders on its stocks(daily trades > 50 or so) and daily transaction volume > 10000 why not SEBI focus on value of stocks traded daily ? A 10rs stock even if it crosses 50 trades & 10000 volume per day, still operator only need Rs.1 lakh to manipulate it. But a 200 rs share even if it trades only 9999 volume & 49 trade per day, an operator need 19.9 lakhs to manipulate it. So it will be difficult to manipulate a 200rs share than a 10rs share. So we need to stress the value of trades per day rather than the volume of trades per day to declare a scrip as illiquid. But Iam okay with hourly auction cycle for the whole day,provided it is based on values not on volumes. Don’t you agree…? Unfortunately Iam also affected by this rather bizzare rule.
Hi Srinivasan,
Yes, value should be considered, if they want to keep this rule. But even in that case, the order book shouldn’t be cancelled and re-build every hour.
Ayush