I remember you holding Apollo hospitals, are you still holding it?
I remember you holding Apollo hospitals, are you still holding it?
Decent set of numbers, I agree. Still nothing special to attract me here - neither in growth prospects, or in valuations.
Simply put, I see better opportunities elsewhere.
All of your picks deserve threads of their own. I am most interested in understanding SRF and DCM shriram Consolidated, so I am starting their individual threads.
)Please feel free to start individual threads for the others like Balmer Lawrie, IGL and Corportation Bank as needed.
Very much so. Infact, was delighted to see that Apollo Pharmacy has done quite well in the June-ending quarter.
Hey, will you be able to provide the hyper-link of the 2 threads. I am getting used to this site and hence having a bit of difficulty in locating the same.
DCM Shriram thread
Great to see Vivek on ValuePickr. Had missed you from TED. Your posts were one of those very few who I used to read regularly, more because of your ability to think for yourself and stand apart from the crowd.
I had followed SRF for a while and agree that it is a good solid company. Balmer Lawrie has been on nearly all value investors radar for a long time, but I think it’s performance (stock price) has often flattered to deceive.
I have followed SRF, and feel it is a great company… particularly after Ashish Bharat Ram has taken charge. I have heard him a few times, and feel good about him.
IGL has a monopoly, but you can have a regulatory roadblock anytime. Essential items cannot be free from long, and without monopoly it may be fully priced. Balmer Lawrie appears to be value pick, but it has a very slow growth rate, particularly in sales turnover.
Your judgement regarding IGL was bang on target. It was more of a black swan kind of an event, that PNGRB thing. However, now that issue has been resolved somewhat, although PNGRB has moved the Apex Court, I think its time IGL start delivering decent returns.
I had heard quite a good things about you. Have gone through your portfolio thread at TED, and feel amazed by your conviction, the gut to stand apart from crowd, and give a solid differential perspective to the stocks that you followed.
Hoping to enrich myself with a bit of your though process, your mental models, your stock selection matrices, and your advices, by interacting with you via valuepickr.
Its been a long time since I updated my portfolio. The list remains the same, but given the way market has behaved all this while, some modification is called for.
Balmer Lawrie has declared a bonus and as usual, has declared a 10 p.c. higher dividend( adjusted for bonus). SRF has been on a downhill and has corrected pretty significantly. Corporation Bank has also been an underperformer, but has fared better than its PSU bank peers. DCM Shriram Consolidated has performed quite well operationally, and if it continues to perform the way its doing, this stock should do very well once the investors start being less averse to risk-taking. IGL has gone nowhere, and with gas prices all likely to get costlier in the next year, IGL will also have to significantly hike prices of PNG and CNG. How the consumers react, is to be seen.
Now, I have got to add a few more stocks to my list:
1). Graphite India Limited: Surprisingly, steel demand in India is still pretty strong. Although the electrode companies have been building up capacities all this while, they dont face too much of a problem domestically. Exports are likely to come under stress, but given the way rupee has depreciated against the dollar, that should surely help them in pushing their products overseas. Fundamentals are also supportive. Decent yield, almost available at book value, manageable debt are some of the strengths to name a few.
2). Goodricke Group: Decent mid-sized tea companies. It has an MNC parentage, and has perhaps, the best balance sheets, among all the listed tea companies. With rupee depreciating, the export earnings of the company should definitely improve. Fundamentals are also supportive. If somebody doesnt care too much about promoter parentage, evenb a Jayshree Tea can also be added.
3). NALCO: Good debt-free PSU with a very high export percentage to its total turnover. Available at an yield of nearly 4 p.c. Alongwith NMDC, this is also a great PSU for gradual accumulation.
Would love to see more postings from you like your portfolio thread on equitydesk.
Any views on Gillanders? Have taken a position on it thinking this year they can put the fire behind.
It is said that in cycle downturn, keep track of cyclic companies which are doing heavy capacity addition BECAUZE when cycle turns they would be the first to benefit which results in sharp increase in financial.
Do u know any such cyclic companies which are doing unused heavy capacity addition so that when cycle turns they can meet heavy demand resulting in abnormal rise in Revenue/Profit???
Practically all good industrial companies are carrying out big capex. Examples would include HEG, Birla corporation, Graphite India, SRF etc. There’s no better use of surplus than to invest in productive capital. The thing is, if you have got consistently increasing turnover, you can have increasing profits once the tide turns in favour, i.e operating margins improve. But if you have stagnant kind of turnover, it becomes increasingly difficult to consistely jack up profits. So, when I see a company’s depreciation, capital expenditure consistently on the rise, thats a company to be had in the long-term portfolio. the only thing to watch out for, is that the debt should be within manageable limits.
I know in the current environment people are more interested in stable kind of plays. But the most important rule for making big in investments is to buy stocks which are rich in value compared to their price. That should be the basic underlying of any stock pick.
Coming to Gillanders Arbuthnot, I seriously pray that they start reducing debt now. they are in a comfortable position now, as both textiles and tea are expected to do well in the current year. MICCO is doing fine, real estate is earning well, so there’s no worry at this point of time. But they surely need to reduce the size of their balance sheet. Another thing which has affected the price is that its now being traded under compulsory ‘call-auction’ category. Thats a stupid rule SEBI has come up with. Even genuine-midcaps have become small caps. And the worst part is, there’s no protest against it from any quarter. The companies should also be complaining, as its making trading extremely difficult. Place them under trade to trade, but such rules are even making entry so very difficult.
Vivekji, Please take look at Fag Bearings.
There net block has more than doubled in 4 years and they have abnormally high investment in last 2 years(as reflected in “Cash Flow from Investing activities”)
IGL can provide decent reward only for longer term. for short term, it’s very risky.
is Vivek Sukhani still on the forum ? any place where i can follow his ideas ?
sorry for the non-value adding comment though…