@Kailasa_Tiwari do you have any fair value assigned to raymond realty based on FY26 numbers and future growth outlook?
I attended the call and on the cash flow accrual , the speaker mentioned approx 400cr from thane and 200cr from other projects as a run rate right now. Might be useful for someone here
They have the roadmap to 600cr PAT by FY28
If you take a 20x PE multiple (industry average is at 25-35x) market cap would be 12,000cr, per share could be 1800
however I am looking at the 1200 per share as a decent value for the stock
However to caveat this: real estate developers are valued at P/NAV multiples. Calculating NAV is cumbersome without management inputs
so I’m working on building a detailed NAV model but it will take some time.
Rough back of the envelope math will also point to an NAV of around 1200
Very very rough math
Project surplus - 8500cr (launched projects)
Land bank - 40 acre at 40cr per acre - 1600cr
Asset value - 10,100 cr
Less: Net Debt - 656 cr
Net asset value - 9444 cr
Net asset value per share - 9444cr/6.65cr shares = ~1400
Take P/NAV of 0.8x (discount to NAV and lower than other listed developers) =0.8 x 1400 = ~1120 per share
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Institutional Research Summary: Raymond Realty Limited (RAYMONDREL)
Date of Analysis: May 9, 2026 | Current Price (CMP): ₹635
Context: Following Q4FY26 results (₹1,519 Cr Pre-sales | 21.5% EBITDA Margins)
Key Brokerage Ratings & Price Targets
| Brokerage House | Rating | Target Price | Primary Research Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motilal Oswal (MOFSL) | BUY | ₹880 | Focus on FY27 Launches: Cites the upcoming ₹3,000 Cr Kandivali project and ₹1,700 Cr Mahim JDA as massive revenue triggers. |
| YES Securities | BUY | ₹860 | EBITDA Acceleration: Highlights the sharp margin recovery to 21.5% in Q4 and the successful transition to a 55% JDA (Asset-Light) sales mix. |
| JM Financial | ADD | ₹820 | NAV-Based Valuation: Values the demerged entity on a sum-of-parts basis, giving a premium to the 100-acre Thane land bank. |
| Emkay Global | NEUTRAL | ₹800 | Execution Watch: Remains cautious on the collection-to-sales gap but acknowledged the record Q4 pre-sales as a “pivotal” positive. |
| Morningstar (Quant) | Fair Value | ₹787 | Intrinsic Model: Uses DCF of existing projects to suggest the stock is still trading at a ~20% discount to its base intrinsic value. |
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It will be good to understand why customer collections should lag, while there is much of front loaded cost (approvals, jd , initial construction, launch and other operating expenses), is it Rera regulations that prevent, or competitive land scape (so company is motivated to onboard customers with very little payment). If this continue with the pace they are launching JD projects, it might be difficult to maintain healthy balance sheet. What are regulation from Rera on collection side? from launch to handover? Are the regular construction phases front loaded too?
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