Difference between physical price vs futures price of oil was as high as $ 20-30 / barrel till a month ago
That premium ( physical over delivery ) collapsed to zero on Friday - 11 Jun !!!
Mkt is basically saying - the fighting has ended. And Mkt can’t be saying that without US / GCC Govt’s leaking such info ( assumption )
If the peace sustains, we may be in for a few surprises -
Crude should surprise on the downside
USD should surprise on the downside
INR should surprise on the upside
Gold should surprise on the upside
Silver should surprise on the upside
Indian Mkts ( specially mid and small caps ) should party !!!
Disc: invested ( plus levered ) in mid/small caps, biased, just sharing my personal views
Jupiter LifeLine Hospitals -
Q4 and FY 26 results and Concall highlights -
Company’s current capacities / Last reported annual occupancy rates -
Thane - 377 operational beds ( total @ 431 beds ) / 75 pc
Pune 1 - 375 operațional beds ( total @ 375 beds ) / 65 pc
Indore - 309 operational beds ( total @ 500 beds ) / 50 pc
Dombivali - 200 operational beds ( planned total beds @ 500 out of which, fit outs for 100 have been completed ) / new opening - 2 months old
Capex -
Pune 2 - 500 bed hospital. Estimated capex @ aprox 600 cr. Should go live in H1 FY 29
Mira Road ( MMR ) - 300 bed hospital. Estimated capex @ 400 cr. Should go live in H1 FY 30
Gross Debt @ 500 cr
Cash on books @ 545 cr
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 1499 vs 1302 cr, up 15 pc
EBITDA - 343 vs 300 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 23 vs 24 pc ) - impacted by initial ramp-up of Dombivali hospital. Dombivali is incurring a monthly EBITDA loss of aprox 3 cr
PAT - 194 vs 193 cr - impacted by high depreciation ( up from 37 to 57 cr YoY ), finance costs ( up from 10 to 32 cr YoY ) due operationalisation @ Dombivali + ongoing capex + impact of new labour code ( impact of 5 cr )
FY 26 performance indicators -
Avg occupancy @ 61 vs 65 pc ( even after excluding Dombivali’s 200 beds, the consol Bed capacity increased from 929 to 1052 beds )
ARPOB @ 67.7k vs 60.6k
ALOS @ 3.87 vs 3.89
IPD volumes @ 54k vs 53k
OPD volumes @ 10.2 lakh vs 9.3 lakh
Payor Mix - Govt : Self Pay : Insurance @ 1 : 43 : 56 ( very healthy )
Q4 Outcomes -
Revenues - 371 vs 323 cr, up 15 pc
EBITDA - 89 vs 79 cr, up 12 pc ( margins @ 23 vs 24 pc - due increased employee and other expenses )
PAT - 50 vs 45 cr, up 11 pc ( due increased depreciation and finance costs )
Notes from Q4 concall -
Planning to set up another 400 hospital @ BKC area ( it’s an upscale / posh area in Mumbai ). Currently on the drawing board stage. Expected to go live in FY 31
Capex spends for FY 26 stood @ 500 cr
Initial response @ Dombivali hospital has been encouraging. Have applied for various insurance empanelments. Generally takes 9-12 months from the date of opening to achieve bulk of these empanelments
Aim to take on Debt to fund the capex ( as listed above ) over next 3-4 yrs
Expect Pune + Indore hospitals to be the key growth drivers in FY 27. Growth @ Thane should mostly be inflation / ARPOB led
Expect Dombivali hospital to start making money ( at EBITDA level ) by H2 FY 28
Have agreed to purchase BKC land for 350 cr. Have already paid 25 pc of the same ( ie 87 cr )
Will add beds @ Indore once the occupancy crosses 60 pc
Indore hospital should see gains in - ARPOBs + Occupancy + case mix in FY 27
Have negligible reliance on foreign patients
Disc: initiated a tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes
DOMS Industries -
Q4 and FY 26 results and concall highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 604 cr, up 19 pc
Gross margins @ 44.3 vs 43.9 pc
EBITDA - 101 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 16.7 vs 17.3 pc - due elevated other expenses and employee costs )
PAT - 58 cr, up 13 pc
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 2326 cr, up 21 pc
EBITDA - 402 cr, up 15 pc ( margins @ 17.3 vs 18.2 pc - due sharp increase in employee and other expenses )
PAT - 240 cr, up 12 pc ( also due lower other income as company deployed surplus cash towards capex initiatives )
Cash on books @ 62 cr
Capex spends in FY 26 @ 293 cr
Domestic : Export revenues @ 87 : 13 for FY 26
Brand wise sales for FY 26 -
DOMS - 80 pc
C3 - 2 pc
Wowper - 8 pc
Others - 10 pc
Uniclan Healthcare (Baby Hygiene) Acquisition – The Biggest Structural Factor behind the acceleration in employee and other expenses
The consolidation of Uniclan Healthcare (acquired ~52% stake in Sept 2024) added a large, lower-margin, high-expense business to the mix
Uniclan added ~2,500+ employees/workers to the consolidated headcount (from the FY25 Annual Report context)
Uniclan’s Q4 FY26 standalone revenue was ₹55.9 Cr but with EBITDA margins of only ~6.3% ( down from 7.5% in Q4 FY25 and 12% in Q3 FY26 )
The moderation in EBITDA margin is partly due to the onset of the seasonal slowdown in the baby hygiene segment, which impacted fixed cost absorption. Further, the increase in contribution of e-commerce sales in the baby hygiene segment also led to higher advertising and marketing and freight expenses
Uniclan primarily sells Baby Diapers and Wet Wipes
Management expects the Uniclan margins to stabilize around 10% EBITDA over the long term as the business scales and e-commerce costs get absorbed
Higher advertising spends were on account of - aggressive marketing / adv spends on YouTube, Instagram, sponsoring conferences and events
Increased share of online sales also impacted consol margins. Online business at present is demanding higher digital spends, higher selling and distribution costs
Uniclan cloked revenues of 166 cr and 203 cr in FY 25 and FY 26. Their EBITDA was @ 14.5 cr and 17.5 cr respectively for these 2 yrs
At present, 35 pc of Uniclan sales come from Online Channels
Both Baby Daipers and WetWipes sold by Uniclan are manufactured in-house
Company’s manufacturing facilities -
Umbergaon ( Gujarat ) - Company’s biggest manufacturing facility housing 18 manufacturing blocks - pencils, pens, mathematical boxes, packaging materials, paper stationery, sketch pens, art materials
Jammu - 1 manufacturing block - wood seasoning and treatment
Jalandhar - 1 manufacturing block - Bags ( sold under SKIDO brandname )
Jaipur - 1 manufacturing block - Uniclan’s facility to make diapers and wet wipes ( sold under Cowper brand name )
Siliguri ( WB ) - 1 manufacturing block - paper stationery
Total manufacturing area @ 2 million sq ft
Greenfield expansion underway: A mega 44+ acre facility adjacent to Umbergaon (first building to commence commercial production by end of Q2 FY27). When fully developed, it will add another ~1.8–2.0 million sq. ft - effectively doubling the manufacturing footprint !!!
Aprox 95 pc of everything sold by the company is made in-house - with a high degree of backward integration
Notes from Q4 concall -
Demand trends in domestic mkt continues to be robust - reflected in strong topline growth reported by the company. Even the export demand remained buoyant
Capex lined up for FY 27 @ 270 cr
Core stationery segment grew by 19 pc in Q4
RM prices have increased by 14-15 pc. have already passed 4-5 pc hikes to the mkt. Expect to see some hit on the margins in Q1
Ball pens, Highlighters are leading the growth in office supply segment
First building completion @ Umbergaon ( wrt the ongoing capex ) is slated for Q1 FY 27. Complete project completion ( over entire 45 acres ) should take another 3 yrs. Should end up spending a total of 1000 cr towards the same ( have already spent aprox 100 cr towards the same in FY 26 ). At peak utilisation, this plant should have an annual revenue potential of > 2500 cr
Should be able to mitigate all of the RM price pressure over a period of time via - MRP increases, improving efficiencies, rationalising advertising / promotions etc. But it won’t happen in a single qtr. They ll keep a track of the situation @ Hormuz and react accordingly
40 pc of company’s RM basket is crude linked - directly. Another 30 pc of RMs are indirectly related to crude prices. The rest is largely unaffected
Q3 is the best qtr for UniClan. UniClan’s EBITDA margins in Q3 FY 26 were as strong as 12 pc
Guiding for a 17-20 pc revenue growth in FY 27
Expect UniClan to keep growing @ 20 pc in near to medium term. UniClan’s RM basket even more crude dependent vs company’s consol RM basket. Q1 should therefore be soft on margins
Aim to reach 10 kind kind of annual EBITDA margins wrt UniClan’s business and then maximise the revenue growth
Rupee depreciation has made imports expensive. This reduces competition from Chinese imports
The new capex @ Umbergaon shall primarily be focused on - Pencils, Mouldings for a host of plastic based products ( like markers, sketch pens, highlighters, sharpeners etc )
Aprox - total spendings already made towards the 45 acres Umbergaon facility - 100 cr ( in FY 26 ) + 114 cr ( from IPO funds ) + aprox 76 cr ( for land acquisition ) = aprox 290 cr
Disc: not holding, studying, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes
BlueJet Healthcare -
Q4 and FY 26 results and concall highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 234 vs 340 cr, down 31 pc ( however, they r up 22 pc vs Q3 )
Gross margins @ 56.4 vs 54.9 pc ( in Q3, GMs were @ 51.7 pc )
EBITDA - 71 vs 140 cr, down 49 pc ( margins @ 30 vs 41 pc ). In Q3, EBITDA was @ 47 cr with margins @ 24.5 pc
PAT - 64 vs 110 cr, down 41 pc ( in Q3, PAT was @ 40 cr ). Q4, Q3 and Q4 LY - include other income of 23 cr, 14 cr and 12 cr respectively. This other income is coming from - forex gains due rupee depreciation + treasury income on account of surplus cash on books
Q4 sales breakup -
HI Sweeteners - 37 vs 30 cr
CM Intermediates - 193 vs 101 cr
Pharma Intermediates - 3 vs 196 cr
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 947 vs 1030 cr, down 8 pc
GMs @ 54 vs 55 pc
EBITDA - 294 vs 377 cr, down 22 pc ( margins @ 31 vs 37 pc )
PAT - 247 vs 305 cr ( down 19 pc )
FY 26 sales breakup -
HI Sweeteners - 131 vs 133 cr
CM Intermediates - 495 vs 404 cr
Pharma Intermediates - 298 vs 463 cr
Notes from previous concalls -
Vizag Greenfield expansion - ground breaking ceremony scheduled for end of Feb 26. Shall be spending 1000 cr over next 3 yrs. This facility shall have dedicated blocks for CM Intermediates, Sweeteners and Pharma Intermediates. First blocks may start to go live in 24 months or so
Mahad Unit - 3 - capex nearing completion. New products like - Contrast Media intermediates and KSMs ( for backward integration purposes ) shall be produced here. Should go commercial wef H2 FY 27. Have spent 145 cr towards completion of this capex
Spending 40 cr towards Hyderabad R&D center - to focus on making/ developing - Peptite intermediates, GLP-1s, Biocatalaysis processes
Notes from Q4 concall -
CM Intermediates reported a bumper 91 pc YoY growth in Q4 led by strong demand for their flagship molecule
Expecting double digit growth to continue in CM Intermediates led by -
Mid single digit growth in existing product ( flagship molecule )
3-4 new product launches
Supply of 1-2 validation batches
NCE intermediate commercialised in FY 25 should continue to see strong off take
Pharma Intermediates /API Segment – Destocking Behind, Recovery Ahead -
The steep 35% decline was primarily due to destocking by a customer for a cardiovascular drug (Bempedoic Acid intermediate)
“The worst is behind” – Management stated destocking is complete, plants are running to optimum capacity, and shipments have resumed
FY27 Guidance: Expect to normalize and grow over the FY25 peak (FY25 PI revenue was ~₹460 Cr) - if this happens, stock may just get re-rated upwards !!!
20 active RFPs being tracked, primarily in chronic therapeutic areas (GLP-1, peptide building blocks)
2 opportunities expected to move into commercialization phase during FY27
High-Intensity Sweetener -
Faced pricing pressure from Chinese imports. Company remains opportunistic
One high-volume product under validation – trial quantities expected to ship over coming quarters
Meaningful pickup in commercial volumes likely only after Vizag comes on-stream ( ie 2 yrs from now )
Capex spending for FY 27 should be around 400 cr - towards Vizag, Mahad and Ambernath expansions. Also adding a new block @ Ambernath - for Pharma and CM Intermediates ( should require 100 cr in capex @ Ambernath )
Have passed an enabling resolution to raise 1000 cr via QIP. Currently have 400 cr of cash on books. Will raise funds only when required
Aiming to clock > 460 cr in Sales in the PI segment ( 460 cr sales in this segment were achieved in FY 25 ). Their discussions with innovator ( iro Bempedoic Acid ) customer gives them this confidence. Also the de-stocking iro this product is behind
Except for the Bempedoic Acid’s intermediate - they shall start supplying other new PIs as well wef current FY. But a ramp up in these molecules should take some time. Same for new CM intermediates
Have started supplies of peptide building blocks to large CDMO clients - globally. This business can also scale up meaningfully going forward
Have got 2 lateral entries into their PI pipeline. Here the ramp up should be faster as these r late stage entrants. But these r not for NCEs
Will be in a better position to talk about margins for FY 27 at the end of Q1. IE - only after they the impact of war for 1 full qtr
Mahad expansion ( backward integration ) should first bring in - better GMs + strategic independence. Growth / Rub off on topline growth shall follow later
BlueJet supplies its CM intermediates to global buggies in this space like - Guerbet, Bracco, GE Healthcare. In Q3 FY 27 - Guerbet’s formulation plant in US received a US FDA’s wx letter. It’s not a injunction ( equivalent of an import alert ). Should not have an immediate impact on BlueJet
At present, the margins in peptide building blocks segment are comparable to company’s consolidated margins. In future, there may be price erosions
Shipments iro Bempedoic Acid’s intermediate have started rolling out. One should be able to see that in their Q1 results / their export data
Disc: hold a small position, biased, may add if results r better going forward, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes
Notes on Glenmark Pharma -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 3771 vs 3256 cr
EBITDA - 763 vs 561 cr ( margins @ 20 vs 17 pc )
Other income - (-) 184 vs (-) 364 cr
PAT - 301 vs 4 cr
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 16983 vs 13322 cr
EBITDA - 4572 vs 2351 cr ( margins @ 27 vs 18 pc )
Other income - (-) 1805 vs (-) 259 cr
PAT - 1362 vs 1047 cr
Glenmark - AbbVie deal -
Company entered into a licensing deal with AbbVie ( a global innovator ) in Q2 FY 26. They received an upfront payment of 6200 cr ( aprox ) in Jul 25 for joint development and out licensing of their NCE molecule ISB 2001. They recognise receipt of aprox 165 cr / Qtr from AbbVie / Qtr - in the P&L for accounting purposes
AbbVie shall develop and commercialise the molecule for North America, EU, Greater China, Japan mkts. IGI ( Glenmark’s innovation led subsidiary ) shall co-develop and commercialise the same for India, LatAm, EMs, CIS and Aus/Nzl mkts
Glenmark is entitled to receive another 9200 cr ( aprox ) - linked to achievement of various developmental and commercial milestones. They are also entitled to receive royalties on sales ( in double digit revenues )
IGI’s annual burn rate is aprox 650 cr. The upfront payment of aprox 6300 cr ensures that IGI remains self funded for foreseeable future
ISB 2001 is a first in class, tri-specific antibody targeting multiple myeloma
Breakup of Q4 revenues -
India - 1020 vs 943 cr, up 8.2 pc
North America - 924 vs 714 cr, up 29 pc ( led by out-licensing deal they struck with AbbVie )
EU - 890 vs 733 cr, up 21 pc
EMs - 879 vs 789 cr, up 13.7 pc
Breakup of FY 26 revenues -
India - 3723 vs 4484 cr, down 17 pc ( their India business de-grew by 87 pc in Q3 due implementation of new GST rates. Glenmark was after more than others as they follow the legacy 3 tier distribution system )
North America - 7139 vs 3017 cr, up 137 pc ( led by out-licensing deal with AbbVie )
EU - 3100 vs 2846 cr, up 9 pc
EMs - 2940 vs 2813 cr, up 4.5 pc
Other highlights for FY 26 -
Launched 13 new products in US. Received first generic approval for FloVent with a 180 day exclusivity. Received approval for Fluticasone OTC nasal spray in US
Commercialised 20 Injectable products in US through partnerships
Initiated commercialisation if Riyaltris in US
Monroe Facility in US received VAI classification after an FDA inspection
Riyaltris sales sustained momentum in the EU and various EMs. Have commercialised Riyaltris in 55 markets now. Launched it in China and Thailand in Q4. Initiated commercialisation in US in Q1. Riyaltris sales grew by > 50 pc in FY 26
Winlevi gained traction in UK since its launch in Q1. EU launch should happen in FY 27
Company’s speciality brands -
Riyaltris ( used to treat Allergic Rhinitis ) -
Shall continue to remain under patent till mid 2031. It’s a nasal spray combining - Olopatadine + Mometasone. Its patent is that of the formulation + particle size + suspension chemistry + delivery system of the a/m generics. The combo was developed completely in-house by Glenmark. Riyaltris clocked aprox 900 cr in sales in FY 26. Management believes, it can clock sales > 2000 cr / yr
Winlevi ( used to treat Acne Vulgaris ) -
They In-Licensed Winlevi from Cosmo Pharma NV in Sep 23 for 15 EU mkts + RSA + UK. FY 27 should be the first year of significant revenue contribution from Winlevi as it gets rolled out in EU countries. Company expects Winlevi to ramp up to > 500 cr in annual sales by FY 30
TEVIMBRA ( Onco drug - Biologic ) - In-licensed from BeiGene ( a Chinese MNC ). Launched in Q1 LY in India
BRUKINSA ( Onco drug ) - In-licensed from BeiGene ( a Chinese MNC ). Launched in Q1 LY in India
JABRYUS ( used to treat Atopic Dermatitis ) - In - licensed from Pfizer for sale in India. Launched in Q4 FY 24
LIRAFIT ( Lirglutide’s Biosimilar ) - launched in India. Glenmark is the mkt leader
GLIPIQ ( Semaglutide ) - launched in India in Mar 26
QiNHAYO ( Onco drug ) - In-licensed from Jiangsu ( Chinese MNC ) - for India and RoW mkts. Have submitted MAs ( marketing authorisation applications in 24 countries )
UpComing launches in FY 27 / 28 -
Aumolertinib ( Onco Drug ) - launch expected in FY 27. In-licensed from Hansoh Pharma ( China ) for launch in India and EMs
Trastuzumab Rezetecan ( Onco Drug ) - Launch expected in late FY 28. In Licensed from Hengrui Pharma ( China ) for EMs and India
All these speciality drugs put together should have a peak annual sales potential of upto 7000 cr / yr in next 5-6 yrs
Glenmark’s India business highlights -
Therapy wise rank in India -
Cardio - 4th
Derma - 2nd
Respiratory - 3rd
Company is Ranked 13th in India
Their top 5 bands in India -
Telma franchise, Cardio > 900 cr
Ascoril franchise, Respiratory > 400 cr
Candid franchise, Derma > 300 cr
Alex franchise, Respiratory > 200 cr
Momate franchise, Derma > 150 cr
10 of their brands clock sales > 100 cr in India
Was holding positions in Innova Captab, Akum Drugs, Sandhar Technologies. All had a descent run up. Have exited for the time being ( over last 1-2 days )
Have initiated tracking positions in Sun Pharma + Glenmark Pharma + Artemis Medicare + Jupiter Lifeline hospitals + Sarda Energy. Have added to my previous positions in Windlas Bio
Disc: just a disclosure. Not Qualified to advise others. Biased ( obviously )
Glenmark Pharma -
Q4 FY 26 concall highlights -
Riyaltris launch in US and Winlevi in EU should be key growth drivers in FY 27
Have got 180 days exclusivity for gFLOVENT ( anti-asthmatic inhaler ). Shall be launching in FY 27. Have also got 180 exclusivity for gFLONASE. Also slated for a FY 27 launch
Launched Tevimbra and Brukinsa in India in Q1 - seeing good response from the mkt
Launched Nebsmart in India in Q3 LY - world’s first triple molecule combo for treatment of COPD. Like Riyaltris, this is an in-house innovation
Their OTC brands like - Candid ( anti fungal dusting powder ), Scalpe ( medicated shampoo ) LaShield ( sunscreen ), Episoft ( moisturiser ), Elovera ( moisturiser ), Bontress ( anti hair fall ), D’Acne ( skincare ), LiteGo ( skin brightening ) - clocked double digit secondary sales growth in Q4
Ex of the payments received from AbbVie, their US business grew by 8 pc in Q4
EU growth in Q4 was led better off take of their branded products
Plan to launch 2-3 more respiratory products each in EU and US mkts in FY 27
Plan to also launch Riyaltris in Brazil in FY 27
Launched Riyaltris in China + Thailand in Q4 FY 26
IGI’s under development assets like - ISB 2301 ( Onco therapy ), ISB 2501 ( small molecule, Onco therapy ) - also look promising. ISB 2301’s IND ( investigative new drug ) application is expected to be submitted in FY 27
Company expects FY 27 to be a strong year for them. Expecting revenues of 17-18k cr in FY 27 with EBITDA margins between 20-21 pc for FY 27. Will share more about the growth drivers in the upcoming investors day discussion
Company is now net debt free ( after receipt of upfront payments from AbbVie )
Company expects their growth rates in India + EMs to remain elevated for next 4-5 yrs as they are launching a slew of in-licensed drugs ( mostly in-licensed from Chinese innovators )
Expecting high teen growth in India + EMs + US. Expecting EU growth to be in high single digits for FY 27
Riyaltris clocked revenues of aprox 900 cr in FY 26. Expecting this brand to keep growing @ 30-40 pc CAGR for next 2-3 yrs. Its now a global brand being sold in 55 countries
Riyaltris clocked revenues of aprox 900 cr in FY 26. Expecting this brand to keep growing @ 30-40 pc CAGR for next 2-3 yrs. Its now a global brand being sold in 55 countries
R&D expenses should continue to remain @ 7-8 pc of sales for FY 27 as well ( like in FY 26 )
Disc: initiated a tracking position, may add/ reduce depending on results going forward, biased, not SEBI registered
Lumax Auto Technologies -
Q4 and FY 26 results and concall highlights -
Segmental breakdown of revenues for FY 26 vs FY 25, segmental YoY growth -
Advanced plastics ( like - cockpits & consoles, door panels, trims, air intake systems, tanks, headliners ) - 53 vs 56 pc. Segmental revenues, growth @ 2566 cr, 25 pc
Structures and Control systems ( like - gear shifters, control housing, smart actuators, shift tower, seating structures, swing arms ) - 17 vs 20 pc. Segmental revenue, growth @ 816 cr, 17 pc
Mechatronics ( power window switches, antennas, telematics control units, O2 sensors ) - 6 vs 3 pc. Segmental revenues, growth @ 281 cr, 150 pc
Aftermkt sales - 10 vs 11 pc. Segmental revenue, growth @ 487 cr, 15 pc
Alternate fuels ( CNG delivery systems ) - 8 vs 3 pc. Segmental revenue, growth @ 383 cr, 25 pc
Others - 7 vs 7 pc. Segmental revenues, growth @ 340 cr, 25 pc
Customer wise breakdown of FY 26 vs FY 25 sales -
Mahindra - 27 vs 27 pc
Bajaj Auto - 14 vs 14 pc
After Mkt - 10 vs 11 pc
Maruti Suzuki - 10 vs 8 pc
Honda Motorcycles - 5 vs 5 pc
LIL - 8 vs 8 pc
Tata motors - 6 vs 5 pc
Others - 21 vs 23 pc
PVs contribute to 53 pc of sales ( vs 53 pc in PY ), 2/3 wheelers contribute - 24 vs 22 pc, 10 vs 11 pc come from Afermkt sales, 9 pc ( vs 8 pc ) and 6 pc ( vs 5 pc ) each from CVs and Others
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 1417 vs 1133 cr, up 25 pc
EBITDA - 208 vs 144 cr, up 25 pc ( margins flat @ 14.7 pc )
PAT - 98 vs 80, up 22 pc
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 4870 vs 3637 cr, up 34 pc
EBITDA - 705 vs 516 cr, up 37 pc ( margins @ 14.5 vs 14.2 pc )
PAT - 337 vs 229 cr, up 47 pc
Company’s subsidiaries / JVs and shareholding -
Lumax Mannoh ( Lumax holds 55 pc ) - makes shift levers ( for both AT and MT ), spare wheel carriers, forged cutting products. Clocked revenues of 396 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ 65 cr
Lumax Cornaglia ( Lumax holds 50 pc ) - makes air filters and fuel tanks. Clocked revenues of 189 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ 44 cr
Lumax AlpsAlpine ( Lumax holds 50 pc ) - makes electric devices and components. Clocked revenues of 77 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ 18 cr
Lumax Ituran ( Lumax holds 50 pc ) - makes telematics. Clocked revenues of 36 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ 4 cr
Lumax Yokowo ( Lumax holds 50 pc ) - makes antennas, other communication equipment. Clocked revenues of 42 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ 1 cr
Lumax JOPP ( Lumax holds 50 pc ) - makes control housings, shift towers. Clocked revenues of 17 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ (-) 2 cr
Lumax FAE ( Lumax holds 84 pc ) - makes oxygen sensors. Clocked revenues of 77 cr in FY 26. EBITDA @ 8 cr
Lumax Greenfuel ( Lumax holds 60 pc ) - makes products for CNG vehicles + smoke and fire detection systems. FY 26 revenues @ 383 cr. EBITDA @ 76 cr
Notes from Q4 concall -
Expecting tax rate for FY 27 @ 26 pc
Capex in FY 26 @ 235 cr ( includes land acquisition for aprox 100 cr + investments of aprox 100 cr combined in AlpsAlpine and IAC )
Cash on books @ 396 cr. Long term debt on books @ 553 cr. Total debt @ aprox 1000 cr
Growth momentum across OEMs in PVs and 2Ws remained very strong in Q4. Q4 is as such the biggest Qtr for the auto Industry ( wrt volumes )
Demand in Q1 also continues to remain strong
Sharp increase in RM prices in Q1 - should get passed through with a lag of aprox 2 Qts. Have a good understanding with the OEMs wrt the same. Margin pressures in H1 is a real possibility
Shall be acquiring remaining 16 pc stake in Lumax FAE in FY 27
More than 90 pc of IAC’s order book comes from M&M. Remaining generally is from Maruti Suzuki
Need not invest aggressively in capacity expansions - except in mechatronics. The capex budgeted ( aprox 250 cr ) should be able to take care of the same
Trying to rope in more OEMs for supplies from IAC. Should take about 2-3 yrs for recipe of substantial orders from them. Till then, small business wins - here n there are possible
IAC’s growth rates henceforth should be tightly correlated to M&M PV business’s growth rates. So far in Q1, M&M is doing well
Company reported an order book of aprox 1450 cr. Phasing of this order books is - FY 27 @ 472 cr, FY 28 @ 643 cr, FY 29 @ 335 cr. The way to look at the order book is that bulk of this is basically new business. This + normal growth clocked by the Auto Industry - should be a good proxy for a rough estimate on Lumax’s growth in times to come
Based on the above, company is confident of clocking 2X the auto Industry’s growth in FY 27, 28
Guiding for an avg of 20 pc revenue CAGR growth for next 2-3 yrs
Disc : initiated a small position ( had sold earlier ), not SEBI registered, biased, posted only for educational purposes
Sun Pharma -
Q4 and FY 26 results and concall highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 14612 vs 12959 cr, up 13 pc
GM @ 80.8 pc
EBITDA @ 3954 vs 3716 cr, up 6 pc ( margins @ 27 vs 29 pc - due elevated investments in US + loss of sales of Revlimid )
PAT - 2710 vs 2154 cr ( due lower ETR and higher other income )
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 58462 vs 52578 cr, up 11 pc
EBITDA - 17731 vs 15114 cr, up 16 pc ( margins @ 30 vs 29 pc )
PAT - 11509 vs 10965 cr ( due lower other income and higher ETR )
Notes from Q4 concall -
Cash on books @ aprox 30k cr ( will be used towards funding Organon’s acquisition )
Declared a final dividend of Rs 5 / share in addition to an interim dividend of Rs 11 / share declared earlier
Innovative drugs sales increased 20 pc YoY in Q4 to hit $354 million. For full FY 26, innovative drug sales were @ $ 1424 million, up 17 pc. Innovative drugs accounted for 22 pc of Sun Pharma’s consolidated revenues. Growth was led by both US and Non US mkts, by products like - Illumya, Cequa, Winlevi, Odomzo
Illumya sales @ $ 796 million, up 16 pc YoY
India business performance -
India sales in Q4 @ 4835 cr, up 15 pc
India sales in FY 26 @ 19290 cr, 14 pc
Indian sales accounted for 33 pc of company’s consol revenues in FY 26
Launched Semaglutide in India in Q4
Volume growth in India @ 6 pc in Q4
Company is ranked No1 by prescription share among 11 different doctor categories
US business performance -
US sales in Q4 @ $ 459 million, down 1 pc
US sales in FY 26 @ $ 1900 million, registering a marginal decline
US accounts for 29 pc of company’s consolidated revenues
EM business performance ( like - Brazil, Russia, RSA, Mexico, China, Poland, Malaysia, Romania, Nigeria, Egypt etc ) -
Q4 revenues @ $ 306 million, up 17 pc
FY 26 revenues @ $ 1265 million, up 14 pc ( cc growth of 8 pc ). Growth in EMs were mainly led by growth in innovative drugs mainly led by Illumya
EM sales represent 19 pc of company’s consolidated sales
RoW business performance ( like - Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Aus, NZL, Israel ) -
$ 220 million, up 10 pc
$ 969 million, up 14 pc ( led by Illumya and Odomzo )
RoW sales represent 13 pc of company’s consolidated sales
R&D spends @ 6.7 pc of sales ( ie aprox 3916 cr ). Out of this, aprox 1410 cr were spent towards innovative products related R&D
Guiding for high single digit topline growth for FY 27
Have set up an integration office wrt the acquisition and integration of Organon with Sun Pharma. Hope to complete the acquisition process by end of FY 27 ( ie in Q4 )
UNLOXCYT ( Onco Drug ) launch in US ( acquired for $ 355 million in 2024 ) - launched in US in Q4 FY 26. Seeing very good response from doctors. Unloxcyt provides good efficacy and good tolerability as the patient set receiving these drugs are already frail
After the Lunch of Semaglutide Vials and Pen Injectors, company also plans to launch Oral semaglutide in India
Illumya is now being sold in aprox 40 countries by the company
Have filed for Illumya’s use for additional indications like Psoriatic Arthritis. If approved should further aid Illumya’s growth trajectory
Expecting Liqselvi ( used to treat alopecia areata )and Unloxcyt to drive growth in US business in FY 27
Disc: initiated a tracking position post their acquisition of Organon, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
Notes on Zydus Lifesciences -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 7587 vs 6527 cr, up 16 pc ( despite loss of exclusivity on Revlimid sales - a big deal imo )
Gross margins @ 74 vs 74pc - flat YoY
R&D expenses @ 698 vs 479 cr, up 45 pc YoY - very healthy R&D spending
EBITDA - 2554 vs 2125 cr, up 20 pc ( margins @ 33.7 vs 32.6 pc )
PAT - 1272 vs 1170 cr, up 9 pc ( due much higher depreciation, amortisation and interest costs - on account of acquisitions made by the company in last 1 yr like - Amplitude Surgicals/ ComfortClick/ Agenus + the one offs like - settlement charges paid for Mirabargron etc )
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 27148 vs 22324 cr, up 17 pc
Gross margins @ 73.1 vs 72.7 pc
EBITDA - 8475 vs 7058 cr, up 20 pc ( margins @ 31.2 vs 30.4 pc )
PAT - 5040 vs 4525 cr, up 11.4 pc ( due steep hike in depreciation, amortisation and interest costs + the one offs like - settlement charges paid for Mirabargron etc )
Q4 capex @ 357 cr
Net Debt @ 4305 cr ( as on 31 Mar 26 )
Geography wise performance -
India -
Q4 revenues @ 1752 cr, up 14 pc ( outperformed the mkt in Nephro, Onco, Cardio, Respiratory and Derma therapies )
FY 26 revenues @ 6574 cr, up 10.9 pc
Share of chronic portfolio now @ 46.3 pc - up form 40.2 pc - 3 yrs back
Launched Tishta - world’s first Biosimilar of Nivolumab in India
Launched Anyra - India’s first Biosimilar of Aflibercept
Launched Semagutide injectables in India. They make the APIs in house + a second source tie up as well
Have in-licensed Biosimilar - Pembrolizumab ( Onco Drug ) for sale in Indian markets
US -
Q4 revenues @ 2952 cr, down 6 pc
FY 26 revenues @ 11682 cr, up 6 pc
In April 2026, filed 2 new products dossiers through 505(b)(2) route. Most likely - these r Synthon’s Onco product and RK Pharma’s Onco injectable
Signed definitive agreement to acquire Assertio Holdings Inc, a US based pharmaceutical company focused on specialty and oncology supportive-care therapy for a consideration of US$ 166 mn
Launched Zycubo®(copper histidinate) for ultra-rare Menkes disease - it’s a NCE !!!
Launched - 505(b)(2) products like - BEIZRAY ( in Q3 ) - in licensed form a Chinese MNC, ZITUVIMET XR ( in Q2 )
Have acquired commercial rights for Nufymco ( used to treat retinal diseases )- an interchangeable biosimilar to Ranibizumab ( already FDA approved )
Have acquired 2 Biologics manufacturing facilities in US for CMO/CDMO work from Agenus
International Mkts -
Q4 revenues - 804 cr, up 45 pc !!!
FY 26 revenues - 3070 cr, up 40 pc !!!
This engine is clearly firing
Consumer business ( Zydus Wellness ) -
Q4 revenues @ 1463 cr, up 61 pc
FY 26 revenues @ 3913 cr, up 46 pc
Steep jump in revenues led by acquisition of ComfortClick in UK
Notes from Q4 concall -
Jarod and Ahmedabad injectables and Oral solid facilities cleared FDA inspections in Sep, Aug 25 ( with minor observations )
Amplitude surgicals ( acquired in FY 26 ) - make high value Cardio and Nephro devices
Net Debt on 31 Mar stood @ aprox 4200 cr. Gross Debt @ 12500 cr, Cash on Books @ 8300 cr ( aprox )
ComfortClick’s business grow by 31 pc in FY 26
Shall be acquiring Assertio Holdings in US for aprox sum of 1600 cr ( announced in May 26 ). It’s an innovative Onco drugs manufacturing company ( have commercialised a NDA Biologic - ROLVEDON used to treat skin infections in patients receiving chemotherapy ). It clocked revenues of aprox 970 cr in TTMs
Desidustat has received an approval by Chinese regulators for treatment of renal anemia - China is world’s second largest mkt. USFDA has also granted orphan drug status to Desidustat
Guiding for high teens consol growth in FY 27 led by - high single digit growth in US, high teen growth in India, > 30 pc growth in EMs ( assuming a 15 pc growth and 27 pc margins, absolute EBITDA for FY 27 should be around 8400 cr )
Saroglitazar’s US approval for PBC indication is slated for a potential approval in Nov 26
Company’s 505(b)(2) business should see good growth momentum in FY 27 which should accelerate even further in FY 28
Company already has 7 commercial 505(b)(2) products - commercially avlb in the market. Shall be launching 2 more in partnership with Synthon and RK Pharma in FY 27. Plus have a pipeline of 3-4 additional 505(b)(2) products
7 commercialised 505(b)(2)s in the mkt include -
Zituvio (sitagliptin) — DPP-4 inhibitor, free-base form designed around Merck’s Januvia salt patent. Approved Oct 2023
Zituvimet (sitagliptin + metformin) — fixed-dose combination
Zituvimet XR (sitagliptin + metformin, extended-release)
Zypitamag (pitavastatin magnesium) — statin, Zydus’s first US branded launch (2018, via Medicure)
BEIZRAY (albumin-solubilized docetaxel injection) — oncology; launched in the US Dec 15, 2025
Plus 2 more molecules from the LiqMeds portfolio ( company hasn’t named them )
Zituvio and Zituvimet - should lose exclusivity in H2 FY 27. XR variant shall lose exclusivity in 2029
In addition to own brands in India, Zydus is also supplying Semaglutide to Torrent and Lupin. The three companies combined have cornered a descent chunk of the market
Expect R&D spending @ 8 pc of sales to continue for FY 27
Plan to register Semaglutide into 20 different countries. Filing is on. Expect some launches in late FY 27 and the remaining in FY 28
Capex for FY 27 should be around 1500 cr. Depreciation and amortisation charges for FY 27 should be around 2300 cr
One can easily add back 600 cr to company’s consol PAT for FY 27( on account of amortisation, being a non cash expense ) - excludes amortisation on account of Mirabegron settlement
Have already commercialised 13 biosimilars in India. These r doing very well. Their US and global Biosimilar business should see a meaningful pickup by FY 30 or so
Shall continue to look for 505(b)(2) acquisition strategy to keep growing in US
Company’s Onco business in India ( mostly Biosimilars ) is now clocking > 800 cr in annual revenues
Disc: hold a small position, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes, biased
Notes on GSK Pharma -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 995 vs 974 cr, up 2 pc
EBITDA - 351 vs 333 cr, up 5 pc ( margins @ 35 vs 34 pc )
PAT - 278 vs 263 cr, up 6 pc
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 3822 vs 3749 cr, up 2 pc
EBITDA - 1309 vs 1179 cr, up 11 pc ( margins @ 34 vs 31 pc )
PAT - 1036 vs 928 cr, up 11.5 pc
Cash on books @ 2745 cr
Declared a dividend of Rs 57 / share for FY 26
Lost 3-4 pc of topline ( over FY 26 ) due to a fire incident @ one of their manufacturing site ( its a CMO site ) in Apr 25 ( as it had lingering effects throughout the year )
That’s a loss of aprox 100-120 cr in sales
Company’s innovative portfolio -
Jamperli ( to treat endometrial cancer )
Zejula ( to treat ovarian caner )
Blenrep ( to treat multiple Myeloma ) - its launch in India is imminent
Trelegy ( to treat COPD )
Nucala ( anti Asthma )
Singrix ( Shingles vaccine )
This innovative portfolio clocked sales of 60 cr in Q4 FY. 26. Assuming a 14 -16 pc growth on Q4 exit rates, this portfolio should clock 300 cr kind of annual sales in FY 27
They also sell Pediatric vaccines in India ( like - Infanrix, Hexa, Boostrix, Varilix, Havrix, Pirorix, Fluarix )
Vaccines portfolio contributed to 730 cr in sales for FY 26. This is not a high margin segment - as the company effectively imports them and sells them in India. But this portfolio does grow in double digits ( eg - grew 12 pc in FY 26 )
Vaccine portfolio’s approved indications -
Infanrix - Diphtheria, Tetnus, Pertussis
Infanrix Hexa - 3 listed above + HepB, Polio, Influenza TypeB
Boostrix - booster shot of Infanrix
Varilix - Chickenpox
Havirix - Hepatitis A
Priorix - MMR - ie - measles, mumps, rubella
Fluarix - Influenza ( seasonal flu )
Company’s top general medicine brands in India -
Augumentin - no 3 most prescribed in India
Calpol - No1 most prescribed in India ( holds 1/3rd mkt share in India )
Ceftum - mkt leader in Cefuroxime segment
TBact - no 1 topical antibiotic in India
Eltroxin - pioneer of levothyroxine therapy in India
Neosporin - among top 10 derma brands in India
Cobadex - Vit/Minerals - clocks revenues > 100 cr
Tetnovate - Among top 100 in India
Betnovate - Among top 100 in India
15 of company’s brands clock revenues > 100 cr / yr in India
Notes from Q4 concall -
Company’s has an acute heavy portfolio. This portfolio saw sluggish growth in Q4
Company also witnessed delay in receipt of some vaccine shipments from US. This also caused some loss of sales in Q4
A lot of clinical trials are currently on ( from the parent’s stable ) - Globally and in India. They in various phases of progression. Some examples include - Bepiroversen, Efimofermin - both for liver disease ( both in phase 3 ). Once approved ( molecules like these and more ) shall be launched in India as well - a key future growth drivers
Supply issues caused by the fire incident are now behind. They lost 3.5 pc of sales in Q4 as well due to the a/m incident
Aiming to grow their Shingrix + Trelegy + Nucala + Jamperli + Zejula portfolio in strong double digits in FY 27
Company’s 40 pc of business is covered under NLEM price controls
Awaiting approval for launch of their ( another ) adult vaccine - Arexvy in India. Its used to avoid Respiratory Syncytail viral infections
Gen Medicine business should grow @ 6-7 pc in FY 27 vs flattish growth in FY 26
Seeing very good response from Doctors and Patients specially wrt Jamperli
WRT GSK’s NCEs that get USFDA approvals, the launch lag between US and India is now only @ 6 months. This is a key positive for GSK Pharma’s Indian operations
Shall begin to launch Bepiroversen, Efimofermin after another 6 months or so in various global markets
Disc: hold a small position, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes
Notes on PNGS Gargi -
Company sells fashion jewellery via its network of small format SIS stores and exclusive brand outlets
Company’s current store count -
SIS with PN Gadgil and Sons - 34 ( FOFO )
SIS with Shoppers stop and other third parties - 54
EBOs - 38 ( FOCO )
FOCO ( franchise operated, company owned ) and FOFO ( franchise operated, franchise owned ) led expansion helps them achieve asset light expansion @ a rapid pace - for gold jewellery retail industry in general - the definition of FOCO is otherwise opposite vs what’s being bused by PNGS Gargi
Product wise share of sales -
Sterling Silver jewellery ( 92.5 pc ) - 56 pc of sales ( rings, earrings, bracelets, bangles etc ).Ticket size - Rs 500-25000
14KT natural diamond jewellery - 34 pc of sales ( sold under UTSAV brand ) - better ticket size, helps drive premiumisation. Ticket size - Rs 5000-200000
9KT plain gold jewellery - 5 pc of sales ( for everyday wear ). Ticket size - Rs 5000-25000
Brass and copper costume jewellery - recently introduced
Kids collections - recently introduced
The business operates predominantly on a cash-and-carry model, minimizing credit risk. The company also enjoys superior margins compared to peers. Last reported PAT margins were @ 21 pc !!! ( very high margins for a jewellery company )
Geography wise revenue split -
Maharashtra ( led by Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Nahsik ) - 133 cr
North-West India ( NCR, Jaipur, Kanpur, Lucknow, Dehradun, Mohali ) - 16 cr
South India ( Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Chennai ) - just entered
Key advantage of their business model is - Higher repeat purchase frequency driven by affordable price points, as compared to traditional high-ticket wedding jewellery, supporting steady demand and customer retention
193 yrs of trust built by PN Gadgil and Sons is not easy to replicate at all - a key competitive advantage that backs the brand - Gargi
Have 100 pc store retention, since inception
Compay’s total store count now @ 126 ( SIS + EBOs )
Adjusted FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 149 vs 100 cr, up 48 pc
Gross profits - 75 vs 50 cr, up 50 pc
GMs @ 43 vs 43 pc
EBITDA - 39 vs 30 cr, up 32 pc ( margins @ 27 vs 30 pc )
PAT - 31 vs 24 cr, up 34 pc
Numbers are adjusted for 1 time sales made by PNGS Gargi to PN Gadgil of 26 cr in Q1 FY 26 - as thy shifted their operating model from FOCO to FOFO. In FOFO model, Under FOFO, the company sells the inventory outright to PNGSL (B2B), and PNGSL then sells to customers. This model change triggered a one-time inventory sale that inflated the reported top line
In FY 26, they did spend more agressively on marketing spends vs FY 25 - hence saw some margin compression
Cash on Books @ 73 cr. Company is Debt free
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 30 vs 23 cr, up 30 pc
Gross profits - 14 vs 9 cr, up 53 pc ( margins @ 46 vs 39 pc )
EBITDA - 7 vs 4.5 cr, up 48 pc ( margins @ 24 vs 21 pc - led by spike in other expenses @ 5.7 vs 3.5 cr )
PAT - 5.3 vs 4.1 cr, up 30 pc
Added 32 new stores in FY 26 out of which 18 were added in Q4 alone
Target to grow their revenues @ 35 pc CAGR for next few years
Guiding for addition of min of 20 more stores for FY 27
Unorganised to Organised shift ( in fashion jewellery sales ) is a tailwind for the company
The 32 stores added in FY 26 should help them grow strongly in FY 27
SIS in PN Gadgil stores contribute to 77-78 pc of sales @ present. SIS outside PN Gadgil + EBO channels did not exist till 30 months back. Now the company is aggressively pushing for growth across these channels. Aim to reduce their dependence on SIS within PN Gadgil stores to around 65 pc of sales by end of FY 28
Cities in Maharashtra like - Nagpur, Nahsik, Pune, Solapur, Aurangabad - offer a lot of scope for further store openings
In Maharashtra, a store generally matures in 6-9 months vs 15-18 months outside Maharashtra
Targeting a mainboard listing after Sep 26
For both their EBOs and SIS with PN Gadgil, master franchise is PN Gadgil and Sons. Difference is - for SIS within PN Gadgil, PN Gadgil owns the inventory. In SIS format, PNGS Gargi owns the inventory
Similar arrangement in SIS inside shoppers stop - Inventory is owned by PNGS Gargi. Unsold inventory can even be returned back by shoppers stop
Company shall mainly use COCO model in newer markets of North and South India
EBOs with PN Gadgil - shall be the format which will see the most aggressive expansion going forward ( ie PN Gadgil operates and inventory is on the books of PNGS Gargi )
In the FOFO stores with PN Gadgil, no rent is paid by PNGS Gargi. Even to shoppers stop, they don’t pay a rent. It’s a revenue share model with Shoppers stop as well. Even for EBO’s rent is paid by PN Gadgil. PNGS Gargi pays the rent only in COCO stores ( their business model is truly unique and broadly de-risked since they neither invest much in fittings / fixture + nor do they pay the rent ). They just supply inventory at a discount and the franchise sells its at a higher price and that a how the franchise makes the money
Talking about Silver Jewellery - Company adjusts its MRP, only when Silver price moves by > 15 pc or so
Should be able to maintain 20 pc kind of PAT margins going forward
Company procures its Jewellery from third party sources. Just gives them designs and pay for the inventory. Doest have manufacturing set up / manufacturing employees on its payrolls. Does have designers on their payrolls
35 pc of company’s sales come from diamond studded jewellery. Company sells lower priced diamonds + they also sell Diamonds studded in Silver. PNGS Reva - doest sell these two varieties. Rewa also doest sell 14K studded jewellery, Gargi does that. Have also started selling 9K gold + diamond studded jewellery wef LY
Company offers - assured buybacks on their 14K gold jewellery sales
Gold and Silver inventory being carried by the company as on 31 Mar 26 are @ 7 kg and 250 kg respectively
Company buys raw silver and gold and hands them over to their contract manufacturers
The cash on books shall be used for COCO led expansion
If company gets good locations / opportunities, they may even open as much as 30-35 stores in FY 27. Their guidance is - not less than 20 store openings for FY 27
Disc: initiated a tracking position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes
Thoughts / Opinions ( please take them with a pinch of salt ) -
Post the massive cool off in crude prices and abating inflation concerns, prices of Gold / Silver may finally find a floor ( as the rate hikes in US may finally be off the table ). This should be great news for gold lenders like - FedBank Fin Services, IIFL finance ( Disc - holding both, biased )
Falling crude prices should also have a very positive rub off on Time Technoplast. Here the valuations are not expensive and stock was on the receiving end since the war began. ( Disc - again holding, biased )
Good summers, weakish onset of monsoons should finally provide much need volume / sales growth for the like of Electronics Mart Ltd ( last year was bad due excess rains ) - again holding, biased
Just sharing my thoughts, Not qualified to advice ppl
Notes on Steel Strip Wheels -
SSWL is a B2B manufacturer of automotive wheels ( both steel and alloy wheels ) and aluminium components ( aluminium knuckles ), selling primarily to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) — the automobile companies
Segmental breakup of FY 26 revenue -
Steel wheels - 63 pc
Alloy Wheels - 36 pc ( up from 11 pc in FY 22 - high margins business )
Aluminium Knuckles - 1 pc ( business started in H2 FY 24 )
Manufacturing capacities -
Steel wheels - 20 million units / yr
Alloy wheels - 5 million units / yr @ Mehsana - capex in progress to expand it to 6.2 million units @ Bhuj
Aluminium Knuckles - helps in light weighting of vehicles. Current capacity @ 0.5 million units @ Mehsana. Capex underway @ Bhuj for tripling of capacity
A steering knuckle is a key part of a vehicle’s suspension and steering system. It connects the wheel hub to the suspension and steering components, serving as the pivot point that allows the wheels to turn when the driver steers. In simple terms, it’s the component that holds the wheel assembly and enables steering movement
Alloy Wheels key customers -
Hyundai - 74 pc share of business
M&M - 64 pc share of business
Kia - 51 pc share of business
Tata PVs - 62 pc share of business
Renault - 60 pc share of business
Skoda - 47 pc share of business
MG - 25 pc share of business
EV scooters - company has 80 pc mkt share in the industry. Its almost a monopoly
Also export to 23 countries
Tata steel and Nippon Steel hold 6.9 pc and 5.4 pc stake in the company
A key structural advantage: the company has arrangements to pass on steel and aluminium price fluctuations to customers. Management stated: “We are fairly insulated from any impact of adverse move in commodity prices.” This protects operating margins from volatile raw material costs
Company’s segmental mkt share -
Steel wheels -
PVs - 37 pc
MHCV - 42 pc
Tractors - 42 pc
OTR - 35 pc
2/3Ws - 39 pc
Alloy Wheels - Largest player in India with 32 pc mkt share. Sold aprox 40 lakh alloy wheels in FY 26
Manufacturing capacities -
Dappar ( Punjab ) - PVs, MUVs, OTR - steel wheels
Chennai - PV and CV
Jamshedpur - HCVs/LCVs
Mehsana -Alloy wheels + Aluminium Knuckles
Saraikela ( Jharkhand ) - backward integration ( hot rolling mills for steel wheels )
Bhuj - Capex for new alloy and aluminium knuckle facilities underway ( costing aprox 500 cr )
Company doesn’t disclose separate EBITDA margins for steel vs alloy wheel segments. Company reported EBITDA margins of 9.9 pc, 11 pc and 10.7 pc respectively for FY 26,25 and 24
Blended EBITDA / Wheel for FY 26, 25 and 24 stood @ Rs 262, Rs 262 and Rs 253 respectively
Aluminium Knuckles also clock double digit EBITDA margins for the company ( apparently, their margins are > alloy wheel margins )
Exports - are typically tilted towards more of alloy and truck wheels - both are margin accretive products
Alloy wheel ASP @ Rs 5000 / wheel
Steel wheel ASP ( PVs ) @ Rs 1200 / wheel
Steel wheels ASP ( Trucks ) @ Rs 4500 / wheel
Aluminium Knuckle @ Rs 2700 / piece
Company expects to grow their EBITDA / wheel to Rs 300 in FY 27 - should be a huge positive if it materialises
Domestic : Export revenues -
FY 26 @ 4729 cr : 454 cr
FY 25 @ 3853 cr : 561 cr
FY 24 @ 3070 cr : 634 cr
Fall in export revenues due steep tariffs imposed by US on India
Company expects, export revenues to ramp upto 600 cr in FY 27 with a medium term goal of 1000 cr of revenues from exports. Aggressively diversifying their customer list away from US. Its already down to 42 pc of company’s exports from 70 pc in FY 24
Notes from Q4 FY 26 concall -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 1475 cr, up 19 pc
EBITDA - 149 cr, up 11 pc ( margins @ 10.1 vs 10.9 pc )
PAT - 64 cr, up 5 pc
Sales volumes -
Alloy wheels - 11 lakh
Steel wheels - 43 lakh
Aluminium Knuckles - 1 lakh
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 5183 cr, up 17 pc
EBITDA - 511 cr, up 5 pc ( margins @ 9.9 vs 11 pc )
PAT - 202 cr, down 4 pc
Sales volumes -
Alloy wheels - 40 lakh
Steel wheels - 157 lakh
Aluminium Knuckles - 3 lakh
Revenue growth during the period was largely supported by domestic demand
Margin pressures were primarily attributable to a slowdown in exports in FY26 amid global uncertainties. Other reason being the increase in the prices of raw materials
Exports, which typically contribute higher margins, saw a decline of 38% YoY in Q4FY26
Truck and Tractor steel wheels command better margins than PV steel wheels
Expecting to clock PAT growth of 20 pc in FY 27
In FY 26, Q2 was extremely weak for the company - due imposition of US tariffs
Lost 108 cr of export revenues in FY 26 - which would ve contributed to aprox 15 cr to company’s overall EBITDA ( implying a margin of 13.8 pc for exports )
Alloy wheels segment grew by 30 pc ( value + volumes ) in FY 26 - a very promising indicator for the company
Tractor, CVs segment grew by 19 pc and 10 pc in FY 26. CV segment growth could ve been much higher but for the disruption in exports
Should report revenues > Q4 in Q1 FY 27. Demand trends on ground are firm
Both the ongoing capex - @ Bhuj iro Knuckles and Alloy wheels should go commercial in Q1 FY 28
Depreciation charges taken for FY 26 vs 25 were @ 128 vs 101 cr, up 27 pc - depressing the PAT
Aluminium Knuckles capacity should go up by 3X by end of FY 27 and by 4X by end of FY 28 ( from present levels )
Demand trends in current FY are looking very strong. Plus the tariff tantrums are also behind. LY - steel wheel plants operated @ 75 pc capacity utilisation. This yr, management expects them to clock > 90 pc utilisation levels - unleashing a lot of operating leverage
Gunning for exports > 600 cr in FY 27 ( vs 457 cr in FY 26 )
Company expects to clock > 650 cr in EBITDA in FY 27 ( vs 511 cr in FY 26 )
Operationalisation of new plants in Bhuj should bump up / support growth in FY 28
Company has put its foot down wrt prices of steel wheels being supplied to OEMs. Such low prices were not avlb, anywhere in the world. Prices here were depressed for last 10-15 yrs. They should now see better renumeration in this line of business going forward. Have started getting price hikes from most OEMs
EBITDA / Wheel in Q4 @ Rs 282 - already showing an improving trend
Company claims - their EV 2W wheel tech is head and shoulders above competitors. They enjoy structural advantages here. Plus its a very high growth segment
New Bhuj capex can add 700 cr kind of topline. This facility ( alloy wheels + Knuckles ) is already sold out. Expect 70 pc capacity utilisation from this facility in FY 27 ( ie its first yr of operation )
Continuously winning new business in Knuckles space. Gunning for 100 pc capacity utilisation in the Knuckles space by end of FY 28
Looking @ brownfield expansions in the steel wheel space. Should expand their tractor wheels capacity by 15 pc or by next yr. Also adding 2 more paint shops for steel wheels in current FY
Net Debt on books @ 820 cr
Currently is supplying Knuckles to 2 OEMs. In talks with 2 more OEMs. Once that happens - business should pick up meaningfully
Company is able to pass on the rise / fall in steel / aluminium prices to their customers within 1 month ( sounds encouraging, given the volatility in prices )
Breakdown of category wise revenues from steel + alloy ( aluminium alloys ie ) wheels -
2/3 Ws - 2 pc
PVs - 54 pc
OTR - 1 pc
Tractors - 13 pc
Trucks - 28 pc
Disc: not holding, looking to buy, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes
Alkem Labs -
Q4 FY 26 results and concall highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 3603 vs 3144 cr
EBITDA - 517 vs 391 cr ( margins @ 14 vs 12 pc )
PAT - 251 vs 322 cr ( due lower other income + ETR @ 40 vs 18 pc )
FY 26 outcomes -
Revenues - 14712 vs 12965 cr
EBITDA - 3005 vs 2512 cr ( margins @ 20 vs 19 pc )
PAT - 2351 vs 2215 cr ( due lower other income + higher ETR @ 18 vs 12 pc YoY )
Notes from previous concalls -
Company’s brands with sales > 500 cr @ 2
Company’s brands with sales > 150 cr @ 12
Company’s brands with sales > 50 cr @ 12
Alkem’s Subisiadry - Alkem MedTech announced the acquisition of Occlutech ( Switzerland based MedTech company ) for 1074 cr for 55 pc stake. They make Cardiac implant devices ( Occluders ) - delivered without an open heart surgery ( via a catheter ). Their LY’s revenue was @ 534 cr, growing @ 16 pc CAGR for last 3 yrs with EBITDA margins @ 7-8 pc. Alkem is confident of driving these margins to as high as 23-24 pc in next 3 yrs using their existing infra in GCC region. Occlutech currently has minimal presence in developing mkts. Alkem sees this as a key growth opportunity. Alkem Medtech is currently into Ortho Implants only. This acquisition vastly expands their tgt mkt. Company aspires to clock 1000 cr kind of revenues with 23-24 pc kind of margins from their implants business in next 3-4 yrs. Their current revenue run rate from cardio + ortho implants is @ 534 cr + 15 cr
Occlutech has a loan on books of around 450 cr @ interest rate of 10 pc. Post Alkem’s takeover, this rate of interest should come down meaningfully to around 5-6 pc ( backed by their corporate guarantees )
Another product under development - LAA ( Left Arterial Appendage Occluder ) - is a crown jewel in Occlutech’s pipeline - helps prevent heart strokes due clot formation in Left Atrial Appendage. Once ready - they intend to launch it in EU mkts to begin with
Another prominent product under development @ Occlutech is PFO Occluder. Patent Foramen Ovale - it’s an opening in the wall between left and right Atria. This opening, if too big can cause heart strokes
Enzene ( their BioTech subsidiary ) clocked sales of 360 cr for FY 25. Here again, company aspires to clock EBITDA margins > 20 pc in 4 yr’s time
Cash on books ( adjusted for Occlutech Acquisition’s outgo ) @ 4500 cr - still very healthy
Plan to invest another 200-300 cr in their consol MedTech business over next 3-4 yrs ( bulk of investments have already been made )
Continue to grow ahead of the mkt in Derma, Respiratory and Anti-Diabetic categories. Company is as such very strong in Pain management, Anti Infectives and VMN segments
Have launched Semaglutide ( in Mar last week ) under the brand names - Semasize / Hepaglide / Obesema - costing Rs 450 / week for the treatment
Trade generics is a large business for Alkem labs. Their focus on this segment shall always remain sharp
Company’s trade generics business grew in low single digits in last 3 Qtrs - mostly deliberate as the company was restructuring their trade generics vertical in current FY
Notes from Q4 concall -
Geography wise sales for Q4 -
India @ 2324 cr, up 9 pc
US @ 801 cr, up 22 pc
RoW @ 476 cr, up 30 pc
Geography wise sales for FY 26 -
India @ 9851 cr, up 10 pc ( chronic segment grew by 16 pc, made generics grew by 4.3 pc )
US @ 2961 cr, up 19 pc ( led by new product launches like Sacubitril, Valsartan )
RoW @ 1718 cr, up 28 pc ( led by Aus, EU. Other mkts also grew @ a brisk pace )
Enzene’s India business is now clocking early teens kind of EBITDA margins. Have commercialised 8 biosimilars in India. Enzene’s FY 25 revenue was around 460 cr ( not sure about their FY 26 revenues ). Enzene’s US business is not yet profitable @ EBITDA level. They clocked aprox 100 cr CDMO revenues from Enzene’s US arm in 9M FY 26
Have garnered 12 pc mkt share in the Semaglutide mkt in India
R&D expenses in Q4 @ 230 cr
Chronic business now contributes to 22 pc of company’s India sales ( improving their chronic share by aprox 1 pc / yr )
Cash on books ( derived approximation ) @ 5700 cr
Not looking to acquire any more companies in next 12 months ( till they complete the integration of Occlutech )
ETR for FY 27 should be around 28 pc
Aim to keep growing 150 bps ahead of IPM for FY 27. Semaglutide should help them achieve the same
Challenges faced by the company in trade generics should now be behind ( wef FY 27 ). Have been focussing on improving the profitability of trade generics business - hence the restructuring that they carried out in FY 26
Alkem continues to be ranked No 1 in Anti Infectives, No 2 in VMNs, No 3 in GI, No 3 in Pain management and No 7 in Neuro therapies
Looking to grow in high teens in RoW mkts + early double digits in US mkts for FY 27
EBITDA margin guidance - should be able to guide better wef Q2
Should be consolidating Occlutech’s revenues / EBITDA with Alkem wef Q2 or latest by Q3
Margins in trade generics are now close to company’s consol EBITDA margins
MR @ group level @ 14.5k. Attrition rates @ 18-19 pc ( lower than industry level ). Much of the MR edition is now happening in chronic segments
Occlutech’s consolidation should add aprox 3 pc to company’s consol revenue growth for full FY
Tolvaptan launch in US scheduled for Sep-Oct 26. Its gonna be a limited competition product ( for the time being )
Disc: studying, not holding, posted only for educational purposes
Thank you sir for sharing your concall notes. I have learnt so many thing and come to know about so many companies through your notes and bow down for your constant efforts and dedication. Keep up the good work and thank you from the bottom of my heart.
@ranvir what do you make of the 60%+ Promotor pledge which seems to keep the stock depressed.. what could be the reasons for the pledging? Also there have been some selling aswell from the promotors in the recent past.. Overall the firm looks good on numbers and future growth, but the market seems to believe that corp governance is compromised
Yes. Its a genuine overhang
That’s why I ve bought a small position ( despite liking the business + their private label brands are also doing well ). Waiting for some resolution before adding
Once the overhang is gone, it can turn out to be a secular growth story ( IMHO )
Steel Strip Wheels -
Q1 FY 27 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 1510 cr, up 27 pc
GMs @ 34.7 vs 35 pc
EBITDA - 162 cr, up 33 pc ( margins @ 10.7 vs 10.3 pc )
PAT - 72 cr, up 43 pc
Steel wheels sold @ 41 vs 38 lakh ( @ 63 pc of revenues )
Alloy wheels sold @ 10 vs 9 lakh ( @ 35 pc of revenues )
Aluminium Knuckles sold @ 80 thousand units ( @ 2 pc of revenues now )
Total debt on books ( long term + short term ) @ aprox 850 cr. Expect it to go up by 200 cr or so in FY 27 as they keep spending towards their ongoing capex @ Bhuj
EBITDA / wheel @ Rs 314 vs 262 in Q1 LY - massive improvement ( company was aiming for Rs 300 - as per their Q4 concall )
Alloy wheels capacity is expected to increase to 62 lakh vs 50 lakh wheels @ present ( by end of FY 27 ) - part of ongoing capex @ Bhuj
Have upgraded their EBITDA / wheel guidance to Rs 310 / wheel in Q1
Aim to grow their topline by 20 pc in FY 27 ( Assuming EBITDA margins @ 11 pc, EBITDA should grow by 40 odd pc in FY 27 )
The EBITDA guidance is of Rs 310 / wheel has an upward bias - as per the management
Q1 exports @ 127 cr vs 92 cr in Q4 LY - a sequential recovery of 38 pc. However, on a YoY basis - exports have declined from 160 to 127 cr, down 21 pc ( Q1 CY vs Q1 LY )
Pick up in exports ( post resolution of tariff drama ) - has only started happening wef Jun 26. Management expects exports to further pick up throughout FY 27. Have also been able to win a lot of new business from OEMs outside US. Should be able to meet 600 cr guidance of annual exports for FY 27 ( vs 454 cr clocked in FY 26 )
Knuckles business in Q1 reported topline of 23 cr vs 13 cr YoY ( and 14.5 cr reported in Q4 LY ). Expecting further revenue gains wrt the Knuckles business going into FY 27. Their current capacities wrt Knuckles are completely sold out
Knuckles capacity ( post Bhuj expansion ) should hit 11 lakh units / yr from 5 lakh units @ present
Will be spending additional 150 cr ( @ Dappar ) towards expanding their agri steel wheels capacity in FY 27 + FY 28. This facility will also be capable of making PV steel wheels
Post the GST cuts, they r now seeing very good growth in steel wheels as well ( which was previously difficult to come by )
All of company’s business units are now running @ aprox 95 pc capacity utilisations ( hence the aggressive capex @ Bhuj and Dapper - as mentioned above )
Post the brownfield expansion @ Dapper, their steel wheels capacity shall go upto 26 million units / yr. Should commercialise this facility by Q1 FY 28
Even their upcoming alloy wheels capacity @ Bhuj is sold out ( @ 70 pc capacity utilisation levels )
Should see QoQ growth in Q2 over Q1
Tractor + CV steel wheels account for aprox 34 pc of company’s sales. These r also his margin segments ( like Aluminium / Alloy wheels ). Basically - aprox 70 pc of company’s business is high margin ( ie alloys + knuckles + Tractor and CV wheels )
Avg cost of debt @ 8.5 pc
Ex China - SSWL is the lowest cost producer of steel and aluminium wheels - globally
Company is looking @ Hot stamping ( or press hardening ) products ( like A,B,C pillars supporting the roof, bumper reinforcements, door beams, front and rear crash rails etc ) - as their next set of products beyond knuckles
Should be able to clock revenues of 120-130 cr from Aluminium knuckles segment in FY 27 vs 69 cr clocked in FY 26
At present, Vietnam and Thailand players don’t have any advantages vs Indian manufacturers of steel and alloy wheels
New plant @ Bhuj shall mainly cater to the company’s export and after mkt sales channels ( talking about alloy wheels )
Should see substantial increase in exports ( beyond 600 cr guided for FY 27 ) in FY 28. Should be able to grow @ > 20 pc in FY 28 ( talking about exports )
Disc: initiated a tracking position, may add more, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes
