Ranvir's Portfolio

[ranvir]

Action Construction Equipment -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 855 vs 875 cr, down 3 pc

EBITDA - 130 vs 135 cr, down 3 pc

Other income - 36 vs 30 cr

PAT - 116 vs 112 cr, up 3 pc

Q3 FY 25 ( base Qtr ) had an unusually high base due pre buying before kicking in of new emission norms

Sales volumes for Q3 FY 26 vs Q3 FY 25 vs Q2 FY 26 -

Cranes + Construction equipment + MHE - 2710 vs 3539 vs 2348 ( sharp fall in YoY numbers, descent recovery in QoQ numbers )

Agri Equipment - 902 vs 1016 vs 526 ( sharp fall in YoY numbers, descent recovery in QoQ numbers )

Revenues, EBITDA and PAT have seen an encouraging recovery on a QoQ basis ( ie Q3 vs Q2 ) - indicating an improving demand scenario post the slowdown caused by new emission norms. Q1 was even weaker than Q2

PAT has been hit by an exceptional charge of aprox 4 cr due implementation of new labour codes

Revenues from Cranes + Const eqpt + MHE stood @ 763 cr, up 10 pc on a QoQ basis

Revenues of Agri Eqpt stood @ 89 cr

Guiding for a flattish topline, better EBITDA margins for FY 26 vs FY 25

Pick and Carry cranes with capacities < 35 Tons, ACE is the mkt leader in India. Chinese competition in this segment is not acute. In the truck cranes + crawler cranes segment ( with bigger capacities ), competition from China is very very stiff. They offer predatory pricing + very liberal payment terms. Indian companies in the heavier crane segments have already shut shop in this segment - because of the Chinese competition

ACE had filed for imposition of import duties on Chinese players ( in 2024 ). GoI has now recommended duties wef Sep 25. The same have not yet been notified by finance ministry. Imposition of these duties should only be a matter of time

Last 3 Qtrs have been tough for the company because of the pre-buying that happened LY before implementation of new emission norms

Company’s peak revenue potential ( with current capacities ) is around 5400 cr ( vs current annual run rate of aprox 3400 cr ). Current capacities are sufficient to take care of company’s growth for next 2 yrs

Company already has ample land banks for future capex ( whenever they feel its due )

Company is contemplating - setting up new capacities to make tower cranes. Have not yet reached a final descision. Will study the mkt scenario closely, before making a commitment

Defence + Exports business have the potential to contribute to 15 pc of company’s topline ( currently @ aprox 9 pc - 2 pc from defence, 7 pc from exports ). In 2 yrs from now, company aims to reach the 15 pc tgt

PLI scheme for construction equipment makers is about to be rolled out by GoI - specially for those eqpt where the import dependence is high. Details should be announced in next 2-3 months. Most likely, this scheme shall cover the cranes with heavier tonnage - where the Chinese dumping was a big problem

Company’s margins in construction r far better ( in late teens ) vs their margins in agri segment. In fact, agri segment’s revenues r as low as 4-5 pc ( on EBITDA level ). In medium term, company intends to improve their Agri segment’s Marigns to early teens

Company intends to enter the Crawler + Truck crane segments - post the announcement of PLI scheme. In addition, they also intend to enter the Piling rigs segment

Company has sold 500 Tower cranes in 9Ms vs 650 sold in entire FY 25. Should be able to sell > 700 cranes in FY 26 ( a 6-7 pc growth vs LY )

Have sold 113 Self Erecting cranes in 9Ms vs 160 units in FY 25. By end of FY 26, should be able to sell > 175 of these

Seeing rapid mkt share gains in the track harvester segment ( not the wheel harvester ). Have already become No 2 player in this segment. Have sold > 400 harvesters in 9Ms FY 26. Have also sold about 1600 tractors in 9Ms FY 26

In last 1-2 yrs, company has been selling 9-10k cranes / yr. In next 3-4 yrs, company sees this number @ 14-15k cranes / yr. Wrt construction equipment, material handling, defence, export supplies - company expects to double its volumes in these segments next 3-4 yrs. Should be able to clock 6-7k cr of annual revenues in next 3-4 yrs

Cash on books @ 1200 cr

Witnessing very good demand trends in Jan / Feb 26

Mkt has now accepted the new price - post the hikes due implementation of new emission norms. Seeing good pickup in sales wef Dec 25

Company sells about 50-60 Truck + Crawler cranes / yr. Their capacity in this segment is about 500 cranes / yr. Once the PLI scheme is implemented, company should be able to utilise their capacity

Company’s proposed JV with KATO should help them gain mkt share in the bigger cranes segment

BackHoe sales in Q3 stood @ around 200 units. This is a high growth category. Expect it to grow to 3X of current sales inside next 3 yrs

Tower cranes contribute to about 10-12 pc of company’s topline. All types of cranes put together, contribute to about 65 pc of company sales

Should be able to roll out electric cranes wef Q1 FY 27

Have got an order of 150 heavy recovery vehicles from MoD

Jan 26 sales were > Jan 25 sales

Disc: hold an investment position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, biased, posted only for educational purposes

[ranvir]

I understand ur concern. However, such things r not uncommon

Managements do take advantage of existing rules + mkt inefficiencies - another case in point being ICICI bank’s de-listing of ICICI Securities @ throw away valuations. A similar saga played out there as well

Irony - ppl swear by ICICI bank’s current management and their Corporate governance

[ranvir]

Shivalik Bimetal Controls -

Q3 FY 26 results and Concall highlights -

Shivalik Bimetal Controls Limited (SBCL) is India’s only fully integrated manufacturer of precision thermostatic bimetals, low‑ohmic shunt resistors and silver contacts, critical components that enable accurate sensing, switching and thermal control across electric vehicles, smart meters, switchgear and energy‑storage systems

Headquartered in Himachal Pradesh with three manufacturing campuses and sales nodes in the US, EU and Asia, SBCL partners with 300+ OEMs/Tier‑1s in 38 countries

Details of company’s product portfolio -

Shunt Resistors - ultra low ohmic current sensing components. One can think of them as electrical traffic cops - precisely measuring the flow of current in a circuit. Company makes these components using Electronic beam welding - a difficult technology to master. These shunt resistors find applications in - BMS, Smart meters, Industrial drives, Gas metering, Charging Infra, Power modules

Thermostatic Bimetals - these r metal alloy strips that bend predictably with heat - causing opening / closing of circuits. Used as essential components for protection against overheating, for temperature control in various devices. Primarily used in - swithgears, geysers, irons, automotive thermostats and other Industrial applications

Electrical Contacts - they facilitate the on/off switching of circuits, regulating the flow of electrical power. Used in lighting and wire accessories, circuit breakers, smart meter latching relays, auto and electrical appliances. Company offers end solutions to market by providing ready to use sub-assemblies, combining the manufacturing of electrical contacts and joining them onto complex sheet metal stampings

Company’s Manufacturing facilities -

Plant 1 Solan - EB welded shunt resistors - peak revenue potential of 700 cr

Plant 2 Solan - Thermostatic Bimetals - peak revenue potential of 600 cr

Plant 3 Solan - Electrical contacts - peak revenue potential of 300 cr

Company’s expertise in Electronic beam welding -

Imagine using a super-focused, high-speed beam of tinyparticles (electrons) to melt and fuse metals like copper and manganese together with incredible accuracy

Think of it like a very precise beam welder, but instead oflight, it uses electrons in a vacuum to create strong and clean joints

Shivalik can build these specialised welding machines themselves for about half the cost of buying them from overseas

This allows us to make industry-leading shunt resistors that can measure electrical current with very high precision. Only a few companies have this expertise & SBCL stands as a leading EBW welder globally with large capacity

Company’s expertise in Diffusion Bonding -

Picture pressing different metals together very tightly under high heat and pressure for a specific time. Over time, the atoms from each metal mingle and create a strong, seamless bond, almost like they’ve become one, without disturbing the original properties of the alloys joined

It’s like slowly merging two pieces of dough together by pressing them, they become a single piece

This process allows Shivalik to quickly develop new combinations of metals (bimetals) with specific properties, which are essential for customers in industries like switchgear, HVAC, and electrical appliances

This can lock customers into using Shivalik’s designs for many years. Shivalik manufactures grades of bimetals using this method as a critical component with high-switching costs for global marquee clientele

In the same way, cold pressure bonding is also part of

Shivalik’s machinery capabilities, following the same process of diffusion bonding without heat

Q3 outcomes -

Revenues - 134 vs 123 cr, up 9 pc

Gross margins - 47 vs 44 pc

EBITDA - 32 vs 25 cr, up 30 pc ( margins @ 24 vs 20 pc )

PAT - 22 vs 18 cr, up 22 pc ( includes one time impact of aprox 1 cr towards implementation of new labour codes )

Sales breakup - Shunts : Bimetals @ 55:55 cr vs 51:55 cr

9M FY 26 outcomes -

Revenues - 408 vs 375 cr, up 8 pc

GMs @ 46 vs 43 pc

EBITDA - 95 vs 75 cr, up 27 pc ( margins @ 23 vs 20 pc )

PAT - 70 vs 55 cr, up 25 pc

Sales breakup - Shunts : Bimetals @ 171:174 cr vs 157:166 cr

Export : Domestic sales mix @ 56:44

For 9Ms FY 26 - GM expansion led by cost controls, favourable product mix, better operating leverage. EBITDA margin expansion led by operating leverage

Board has approved to set up an automotive busbars and assembly facility near Pune. Should go live by Q1 FY 27. Capex required for this facility should be around 20 cr - to be funded via internal accruals

US business for both Shunts and Bimetals should see substantial improvement wef Q4 as the tariffs stand reduced. Seeing that play out in real time

Company already has orders in hand for BusBars. Company was already supplying these in smaller Qty. As the order build up is picking up, they r obliged to expand their capacities in Pune ( near OEMs )

Should be able to clock 70 cr business in FY 27. By FY 29, this should ramp up to Rs 250-300 cr / yr kind of business

Making of BusBar assemblies requires EB welding ( just like shunt resistors ). Hence - it’s a natural extension for the company. At present, shall be making them for E-2W applications. Company is supplying to Bajaj and TVS e-2Ws. At present, no one else makes these BusBar assemblies in India. These BusBars should clock 14-15 pc kind of EBITDA margins

Value per BusBar assembly per vehicle should vary between Rs 1500 - 2500 / vehicle depending on the type of battery / electronics being used

Company’s supplies to Vishay Ltd ( in US ) are expected to be back to their peak levels ( last seen 2-3 yrs back ) - an added positive trigger

There are hardly any switchgear manufacturers in India who are not already company’s customer for Bimetals. Company now intends to gain mkt share in US

Also developing E-4W busbar assemblies in house. Once developed and accepted, can be a future growth engine

Busbar assembly made from EB welding process are inherently better than Busbars made from other techniques. EB welding is the most precise and efficient form of welding and doesn’t affect the flow of current even at the point of joint of 2 different materials

Looking to enter the Automotive Fuses space - used in Power window / Powered tailgates etc. These r high value fuses. The process of making these fuses also involves EB welding. Also looking at Automotive inductors ( used in ADAS, ECU systems )

Since the company already has the EB welding facilities, the incremental capex for the busbar assemblies is only @ 20 cr. This is just the assembly work ( after EB welding ). Hence, they ll be able to start supplies as soon as Apr 26

Topline growth in first 9Ms FY 26 has been @ 8-9 pc. Going forward, it should accelerate

Electrification of economy, demand from EVs, Data centres - all are tail winds for appliances / switchgears that use Shunts and Bimetals

Growth in Shunts business in FY 27 should be strong ie in mid to high teens ( on back of demand from Vishay, Denso and 2 more Japanese players )

Disc: hold a small tracking position, may add if company is able to deliver on its promises, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

[ranvir]

Wonderla Holidays -

Q3 concall and results highlights -

Q3 outcomes -

Revenues - 141 vs 126 cr, up 12 pc

EBITDA - 39 vs 42 cr, down 7 pc ( margins @ 28 vs 33 pc )

PAT - 14 vs 20 cr, down 30 pc

Footfalls @ 9.17 vs 9.18 lakh

ARPU - Rs 1377 vs 1272

Park wise performance -

Bengaluru -

Revenues @ 46 vs 42 cr

Footfalls @ 3.08 vs 2.99 lakh

ARPU - Rs 1491 vs 1405

Kochi -

Revenues @ 28 vs 32 cr

Footfalls @ 2.07 vs 2.57 lakh

ARPU - Rs 1367 vs 1239

Hyderabad -

Revenues @ 37 vs 39 cr

Footfalls @ 3.03 vs 3.28 lakh

ARPU - Rs 1234 vs 1201

Bhuvneshwar -

Revenues - 2.7 vs 3.6 cr

Footfalls @ 0.24 vs 0.34 lakh

ARPU - Rs 1134 vs 1029

Wonderla Resort and Isle ( both @ Bengaluru ) -

Revenues @ 8.2 vs 4.8 cr

ARR - Rs 7.2k vs 5.7k

Occupancy @ 68 vs 55 pc

Chennai ( opened in Dec 25 ) -

Revenues @ 12 cr - clocked in 30 days - with an EBITDA margins of 10 pc ( annualised, despite a one time launch expense of 5.5 cr )

Footfalls @ 75k ( inside 1 month )

Facilities operated by the company -

5 Amusement parks ( Chennai park opened in Q3 )

230 Rides

23 restaurants

5 Banquet halls

7 Food courts

3 Lounge Bars

Comments from previous concalls -

Company designs, makes, operates and maintain its own rides. Buying / Importing similar rides would cost the 2-3 X ( on an avg )

Company’s preference is for large format parks near tier 1 cities ( wrt future expansions ). For tier 2 cities, company shall only go ahead if they get a sweet deal wrt long term lease at attractive rates ( like they got in Bhuvneshwar - 6 cr for a 90 yr lease ). Otherwise, its difficult for the company to run a profitable park near tier - 2 cities

Chennai Park’s peak capacity stands @ 10-12 lakh visitors / yr. ( Assumption : That should translate into a peak revenue potential of aprox 213 cr @ an ARPU of Rs 1800 ). Company is hopeful of achieving this inside 3-4 yrs

Aprox 35-40 pc land is still un-utilised @ their parks in Kochi and Bengaluru. This figure for Hyderabad park is aprox 25 pc. Company keeps slowly adding newer attractions, restaurants, rides, resorts etc @ these available land banks

Comments from Q3 Concall -

Chennai park went live in early Dec 25. Have spent 600 cr on this project. Company is exempt from local body taxes for next 10 yrs wrt their Chennai park

Hit on EBITDA in Q3 includes one time expenses of 5.5 cr towards opening of a new park in Chennai. PAT was further hit by added depreciation from Chennai park + implementation of new labour codes amounting to Rs 6 cr

Qtrly operating costs ( without depreciation ) for Chennai park should be around Rs 9 - 10 cr / qtr

In medium term, company expects the Chennai park to clock similar margins as their Bengaluru / Kochi / Hyderabad parks ( ie > 35 pc margins )

Kochi’s business was adversely affected in Q3 because of spread of waterborne amoeba infections in the region because of which a lot of school / college trips to the park were cancelled

Footfalls @ Chennai continue to remain strong in Jan 26

Weak footfalls in Bhuvneshwar are partially attributable to adverse weather events in Q3 - like cyclones

Avg payback period for the company has been around 4-5 yrs. For Chennai, its likely to be 7-8 yrs as this park is the largest and the amounts involved r also big

Bengaluru’s park started in 2005. The first resort in Bengaluru came up in 2014. Next resorts r likely to come up in Hyderabad / Kochi

In peak seasons ( in Q1 ), company has to ( by force ) leave some demand on the table as they do not overcrowd their parks. Hence they also keep undertaking gradual expansion like adding rides etc

As a fair assumption, one can factor in 1 new large park commercialisation by the company in next 3 yrs

Between the two resorts that they have, company has 123 Keys. Since the second resort came up only recently, not looking to expand the no of Keys @ Bengaluru

Don’t foresee any more exceptional charges wrt Chennai park in Q4

Disc: hold an investment position, added recently, biased, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes

[ranvir]

Cello World -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Q3 outcomes -

Revenues - 554 vs 557 cr

Gross margins @ 49.7 vs 49.7 pc - flat YoY

EBITDA - 122 vs 140 cr, down 12 pc ( margins @ 22 vs 25 pc )

PAT - 63 vs 86 cr, down 26 pc ( includes a one time exceptional hit of 7 cr due implementation of new labour codes )

9M FY 26 outcomes -

Revenues - 1670 vs 1547 cr, up 8 pc

Gross margins @ 51 vs 51.6 pc

EBITDA - 389 vs 406 cr, down 4 pc ( margins @ 23 vs 26 pc )

PAT - 222 vs 250 cr, down 11 pc

Demand trends were strong in Oct but weakened meaningfully in Nov, Dec

Consumerware sales de-grew in Q3 due 40 pc decline in sales of Insulated Steelware products due stock outs / supply challenges ( same thing happened with Borosil ltd ) - due implementation of new BIS norms. This also had an adverse impact on EBITDA margins due operating de-leverage

Glassware capacities r running @ 60 utilisation. Further ramp up may take another 6 odd months. Business is currently operating @ breakeven levels. Profitability of this business will improve when further capacity is absorbed

Contribution from Cello brand ( acquired in Q3 - were earlier selling only the UnoMax brand ) of writing instruments should start to happen wef Q4. This should bump up this segment’s revenues in a meaningful manner wef Q4. For FY 27 - Cello + UnoMax should clock a combined revenues of 500 cr or so vs 300 cr in FY 25 !!! ( should be a meaningful trigger going forward )

Moulded furniture saw a 10 pc revenue decline in Q3 - due govt supplies in Q3 LY + fall in polymer prices

Segmental revenues and gross margins -

Consumerware - 69 pc, GMs @ 50 pc

Writing instruments - 15 pc, GMs @ 56 pc

Moulded furniture - 15 pc, GMs @ 39 pc

If the bottlenecks / supply issues had not occurred in Thermosteelware in Q3, company’s topline would ve grown in double digits ( similar commentary was given out by Borosil Ltd )

Over the next 2 Qts, profitability should improve gradually. However by H2 FY 27 - company should start to see meaningful improvements ( due ramp up in glassware + resolution of steelware bottlenecks + additional sales from Cello brand’s writing instruments )

Around 75 of products that the company sells are made in-house

Capacity utilisations in Opalware are @ 85 pc. Will undertake expansion only when they approach 100 pc utilisation levels

As and when company exhausts its opalware and glassware capacities, it ll have to resort to Greenfield expansions - as there are space constraints @ both their sites and further brownfield expansions are not possible

Company believes, glassware is a long term bet for the company. This category should become large over next 4-5 yrs. There r pressures from imports but their quality is sub-optimal. Once the capacity ramps up beyond 75 pc - profitability improves dramatically

The Cello brand has a much better brand equity in the writing instruments mkt vs the UnoMax brand. This also gives the company to grow aggressively in the adjoining stationery mkt. Should be a big opportunity going forward

WIM PLAST’s merger should be completed by Q1 FY 27

Revenue growth in H1 and H2 FY 27 should be in single digits and mid teens respectively. Relatively muted H1 FY 27 is due to the fact that full steelware capacities will only come online by H2 ( they ll keep coming on stream in phases )

Steelware’s initial capacities should be able to clock 300 cr kind of annual sales with an option for brownfield addition of manufacturing lines

Disc: hold an investment position, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes, I m biased