Ranvir's Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
1740

Orient Electric -

Q3 FY 26 results and Concall highlights -

Revenues - 906 vs 816 cr, up 11 pc

Gross profits - 270 vs 260 cr, up 4 pc ( Gross margins @ 29.8 pc, down 1.9 pc - sharp margin contraction due elevated commodity costs )

EBITDA - 68 vs 61 cr, up 10 pc ( margins flat @ 7.5 pc )

PAT - 26 vs 27 cr ( one time impact of implementation of new labour codes @ 9 cr. Adjusted for this PAT would have been higher by aprox 6 cr )

Net cash on books @ 45 cr

Working capital days @ 31 days

Segmental performance -

ECD -

Revenues - 647 vs 574 cr, up 13 pc

EBIT - 77 vs 64 cr ( margins @ 11.8 vs 11.2 pc )

Fans grew in single digits. BLDC fans grew in double digits. Appliances grew in strong double digits led by heating appliances. Exports grew by 40 pc

Lighting and Switchgears -

Revenues - 260 vs 242 cr, up 7 pc

EBIT - 25 vs 32 cr ( margins @ 9.5 vs 13.2 pc )

Single digit volume and value growth in consumer lighting space. Premium lighting’s share of total revenues @ 66 pc - very healthy levels. Company’s selective approach to tender business impacted B2B growth rates

Sharp growth seen across Swithgears + Wires ( revenues from wires literally doubled )

Notes from previous Concalls -

Company has rolled out its wires portfolio in North and East India. They ll improve the depth and breadth ( new geographies ) of their distribution in a calibrated manner. Company’s strong distribution in fans should be a natural tailwind for their Wires business

Company believes - they should reach 10 pc kind of EBITDA margins in next 6-7 Qtrs ( in line with other FMEG players ) - this can be a big kicker for the bottomline going forward

Notes from Q3 Concall -

Sharp rise in copper prices strained gross margins in Q3

Lighting B2B business also had a large base in previous FY - adding to this segment’s de-growth

Premium products in Lighting business include - panels, downlights, COB lights

Wires and Switch Gears have a low base, but is a future growth engine for the company

Have taken an avg price hike of aprox 3-3.5 pc across fans, lighting and switchgears to counter the input cost inflation. Wires is as such a complete pass through business

Fan segment’s Industry level growth was flat for ceiling fans and mild de-growth in TPW fans. Orient outperformed the Industry by a wide margin. This outperformance was even more in the BLDC segment where the company gained mkt share even more aggressively

BLDC fan’s profitability is > non BLDC fans

Because of poor summer season in Q1 and Q2, de-stocking is on in the TPW fans + Coolers segment. Hoping for some re-stocking to begin wef Q4

B2B:B2C spit in lighting sales for the company stands @ 75:25. Industry norm is around 65:35. Company is working hard to move in that direction

Room heating + Water heating appliances performed exceedingly well in Q3 ( as the Winters were relatively strong )

As TPW demand picks up ( hopefully in Q4, Q1 next FY ), capacity utilisations at their new Hyderabad plant should move up significantly. That would also help their Gross and EBITDA margins

If commodity prices do not soften, may hike prices again in Feb

Keeping a razor sharp focus on premiumisation. It also helps margins in a big way as customers at premium end of the mkt are not very price sensitive

A&P as a percentage of sales stood @ an elevated 4.5-5 pc ( as the company is working on new categories )

New SKU development is currently focussed on lighting, fans and heating appliance categories

Disc: holding, biased, hold a small position, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered, posted for educational purposes

1 Like
1741

Thank you sir for disclosing -whether the holding is core or small holding etc.I have never seen a humble, knowledgeable, consistent person like you. I am blessed that i am learning from a good teacher and amazing human being. Thank you sir from the bottom of my heart. BTW sir i am also working as an equity Research Analyst for a company, thanks to all your learning , as they are helping me out.

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1742

Cipla Q3 FY 26 concall highlights -

Revenues - 7074 vs 7073 cr, flat YoY

EBITDA - 1255 vs 1989 cr, down 36 pc

PAT - 674 vs 1575 cr, down 57 pc ( greater fall in PAT is also due an exceptional one time charge of 276 cr - taken up due to implementation of new labour laws )

Cash on books @ 10718 on 31 Dec 25 vs 9413 cr on 31 Dec 24

R&D expenses stood @ 494 cr @ 7 pc of company’s revenues - very healthy R&D spends

Geography wise business highlights -

India business -

Sales @ 3466 cr ( representing 49 pc of company sales )

Branded generics grew by 10 pc

Therapies that outgrew IPM in Q3 include - cardiac, anti-diabetes, respiratory, urology and anti-infectives

Strong growth also seen in OTC and Trade generics business

30 of company’s brands clock sales > 100 cr. In addition 2 trade generic products also clock sales > 100 cr

Company launched 8 products in Trade generics segment in Q3 ( including entry into sexual wellness space )

Company is ranked in top 5 among five therapeutic categories - Respiratory, Anti Infectives, Urology, Anti Diabetes, Cardiac

Foracort continues to be No 1 brand by value in IPM

Have collaborated with Elli Lilly for marketing and distribution on Mounjaro in India

Company believes that launch of Tirzepetide ( basically Mounjaro ) should be a sizeable mkt opportunity in Tier 1,2,3 cities. It ll be launched by the company under the brand name - Yurpeak. Cipla shall be their only nationwide partner. Tirzepetide’s patent expiry is post 2030

Cipla - Pfizer deal -

Cipla to exclusively market and distribute Pfizer’s key brands (Corex, Dolonex, Neksium, Dalacin C) in India

Reinforces Cipla’s position in Acute therapy with trusted brands across Respiratory, Pain, Gastrointestinal, and Anti-infective segments

Leverages Cipla’s deep distribution network to expand access and drive growth without upfront investment

Cipla acquired Inzpera ( in domestic mkt for 115 cr ) -

Cipla acquires 100% stake in Inzpera Healthsciences, adding a differentiated paediatric and wellness portfolio

Combines Inzpera’s portfolio with Cipla’s strong distribution network to accelerate growth and scalability

Positions Cipla to capture rising demand in paediatric care, driving long-term value creation

Other new launches in FY 26 -

Huena - first non anti biotic drug for treatment of urinary track infections ( UTI )

Zemdri - Injectable to treat complicated UTI

Cipenment - In-licenced Enmetazobatum antibiotic from Orchid Pharma

US business -

Contributed to 21 pc of company sales @ 1476 cr

Albuterol ranked No. 1 with total market1 share at 22% (50 million+ inhaler units supplied to the U.S. market

cumulatively)

Lanreotide manufacturing is temporarily paused following USFDA observations at our partner Pharmathen’s facility; re-supply is expected in H1 FY27

gRevlimid had a small contribution in U.S. revenues this quarter

Upcoming launches are expected to cushion this decline and provide long term growth

Upcoming launches in US in FY 27 include - 4 respiratory assets ( including gAdvair ) and 4 peptide launches

South Africa business -

Clocked revenues of 665 cr, up 8.7 pc. Total African sales stood @ 985 cr

Have 7 brands among top 30 brands in RSA

EMs + Europe -

Contributed to 13 pc of company sales @ 919 cr

API sales -

Stood @ 140 cr representing 2 pc of company sales

Notes form Q3 concall -

Sales were flat YoY despite the expected sharp fall in Revlimid sales

In India branded business - Respiratory therapy grew 11 pc, Cardiac and Anti Diabetes grew by 13 pc each, Urology grew by 15 pc

Share of sales from chronic therapies continues to be at 62 pc

22 of company’s brands are in IPM’s top 300 brands

Launched Afrezza in India in Q3 - first inhaled, rapid acting Insulin. Also launched Yurpeak ( Mounjaro ) in India

Nicotex, Cipladyne and Omnigel continue to be No1 brand in their respective segment

Ex-Revlimid, company’s US business grew in double digits

Lanreotide is a key asset for the company ( in US ) - expecting the supplies to begin in Q1/Q2 of next FY ( till then, supplies shall remain constrained ). Also exploring alternative manufacturing sites for this product

Out of 4 respiratory assets that the company is talking about, 3 of them should be fairly large opportunities ( should be able to easily make up for lost sales from Revlimid )

Don’t foresee any delays in the 4 respiratory + 4 peptide asset launches that the company is talking about. Respiratory launches shall happen from company’s India + US sites. Peptide launches are scheduled from company’s partners sites

Guiding for full FY 26’s EBITDA margins @ 21 pc - primarily due loss of Revlimid sales + temporary disruptions in Lanreotide ( vs 26 and 24 pc in FY 25 and FY 24 )

Going forward - R&D expenses should moderate towards 5-5.5 pc of sales ( over next 12 months or so )

Paid 1100 cr to Novartis in Q3 for perpetual license of manufacturing and selling Galvus and combination products ( basically Vildagliptin and its combinations )

Since Lanreotide sales are not going to be available in Q4 as well, sales momentum in US should also remain tepid

Two big respiratory + 2 smaller peptide launches shall happen in H1 next FY. Third big respiratory launch ( Symbicort ) + 1 big peptide launch should happen in H2 next FY

In-Licensed products contribute to < 10 pc of India branded sales. Launch of Terzapetide shall further growth in this product portfolio

Looking at a second site for Lanreotide to de-risk company’s supply chain

For the first two respiratory products expected to be launched in H1 next yr, company shall be the only generic supplier for a decent period of time

Company won’t be launching Semaglutide generic in the first wave in Indian mkts

Disc: hold a small tracking position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

2 Likes
1743

Aditya Vision -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 649 vs 508 cr, up 28 pc

Gross margins @ 15.8 vs 15.6 pc

EBITDA - 53 vs 47 cr, up 14 pc, margins @ 8.2 vs 9.3 pc ( lower growth in EBITDA is due to sharp rise in other expenses from 33 to 49 cr )

PAT - 28 vs 24 cr, up 17 pc ( company took a hit of 1.5 cr due implementation of new labour laws below the EBITDA line item )

Opened 4 new stores in Q3 taking the store count to 192

State wise distribution of stores -

Bihar - 117

UP - 42

Jharkhand - 33

Company has an impeccable record of Zero store closures since company’s inception

Company did spend more than usual amounts ( as a percentage of sales ) in UP’s bigger mkt’s like Lucknow etc on marketing and brand promotions

Elevated inventory levels as AC manufacturers offered good discounts before implementation of new BEE norms

Have added 17 stores in 9Ms FY 26. Aim to hit 200 stores mark by end of FY 26

SSSG in 9Ms stood @ 5 pc. SSSG in Q3 stood @ 17 pc

Sales breakup between Bihar : Jharkhand : UP @ 75 : 13 : 12

Sales growth in Q3 led by Washing machines and TVs ( > 30 pc ) followed by ACs and mobiles ( > 20 pc )

ACs grew by 23 pc in Q3. But 9M growth in AC sales is still tepid @ 2 pc due unusually weak summers in CY 25

Other expenses shall moderate wef Q4 as other expenses in Q3 also included employee bonuses. Also, H1 was weak wrt sales growth, so the company did spend extra amounts on marketing, sales promotion etc in Q3 in current FY

Plan to enter Chattishgarh and MP markets in FY 27

Company has opened 96 stores in last 3 yrs. As these stores mature, margins should inch upwards

In MP and Chattishgarh, most of the affluent population is concentrated in a few cities ( unlike - UP / Bihar ) - 15 cities in MP and 8 in Chattisgarh. Shall be opening stores in these cities and then penetrate deeper by opening more stores in the same cities

Most of the store additions in next few yrs shall be concentrated in UP, MP and Chattisgarh. Company’s penetration in Bihar and Jharkhand mkts is almost complete

EBITDA margins should move towards 9 pc range wef Q4. Sales in Jan 26 have been very good

Aim to open a min of 30 new stores in FY 27

Disc: holding, biased, core portfolio position, not SEBI registered, posted only for educational purposes

2 Likes
1744

Innova Captab -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 450 vs 316 cr, up 42 pc

EBITDA - 71 vs 51 cr, up 40 pc ( margins @ 15.8 vs 16.1 pc )

PAT - 42 vs 34 cr, up 23 pc

Manufacturing facilities -

Baddi - 3 blocks - Tablets, Capsules, Dry syrups, Oral Liquids, Ointments, Dry powder injectables

Jammu - 4 blocks - Tablets, Capsules, Dry syrups, Respules, Parenterals, Dry powder injectables

Dehradun - 1 block - Tablets, Capsules

Taloja - 1 block ( API facility )

Eligible for GST benefits totalling upto 300 pc of investment made in Jammu plant + Interest rate subvention upto 6 pc

Segmental performance -

CMO business grew by 29 pc in Q3 ( @ 298 cr ) and 18 pc in 9Ms ( @ 813 cr ) - very strong growth

Branded generics business grew by 79 pc in Q3 ( @ 151 cr ) and 56 pc in 9Ms ( @ 368 cr ) - very strong growth ( also led by aggressive geographic expansions )

Domestic : Export sales breakup for 9Ms @ 68 : 32

Sales from Jammu plant in Q3 stood @ 89 cr ( in Q2 it was 60 cr ) - indicating a strong ramp up

Jammu facility has not had a positive contribution to EBITDA margins ( till now ). Still the numbers r looking strong. Once Jammu facility turns EBITDA positive, numbers can be even better ( should turn EBITDA positive wef Q4 )

Jammu facility is expected to turn profitable at annual sales run rate of > 400 cr

International geographic expansions is helping expand the branded generics business in a rapid fashion

Current capacity utilisations @ Baddi, Taloja, Dehradun facilities vary in the range of 55-60 pc ( as of Q3 ). Jammu is in ramp up phase ( the plant has a peak revenue potential of 1400 cr )

CMO facilities often peak out @ 70-75 pc capacity utilisation levels. That means the existing plants have an additional revenue potential of 15 - 20 pc

Expect FY 27 revenues to grow by > 20 pc at the consolidated level

Exports as a percentage of sales in Q3 stood @ 35 pc vs 25 pc in Q3 last FY ( led by branded generics )

EBITDA margins on an Ex - Jammu basis now stands @ 19 pc - a huge positive ( for a company that drives bulk of its revenues from CMO operations )

CMO business witnessed a volume growth of around 8 pc - again very healthy

Revenue guidance given by the company is based of constant API prices

Cephalosporin API prices have been inching upwards in last 2 Qtrs

Till company doesn’t take on new growth projects, ramp up in Jammu facility should result in progressively higher margins for the company

Disc: holding, small position, inclined to add more, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted for educational purposes

1 Like
1745

Innova Captab -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 450 vs 316 cr, up 42 pc

EBITDA - 71 vs 51 cr, up 40 pc ( margins @ 15.8 vs 16.1 pc )

PAT - 42 vs 34 cr, up 23 pc

Manufacturing facilities -

Baddi - 3 blocks - Tablets, Capsules, Dry syrups, Oral Liquids, Ointments, Dry powder injectables

Jammu - 4 blocks - Tablets, Capsules, Dry syrups, Respules, Parenterals, Dry powder injectables

Dehradun - 1 block - Tablets, Capsules

Taloja - 1 block ( API facility )

Eligible for GST benefits totalling upto 300 pc of investment made in Jammu plant + Interest rate subvention upto 6 pc

Segmental performance -

CMO business grew by 29 pc in Q3 ( @ 298 cr ) and 18 pc in 9Ms ( @ 813 cr ) - very strong growth

Branded generics business grew by 79 pc in Q3 ( @ 151 cr ) and 56 pc in 9Ms ( @ 368 cr ) - very strong growth ( also led by aggressive geographic expansions )

Domestic : Export sales breakup for 9Ms @ 68 : 32

Sales from Jammu plant in Q3 stood @ 89 cr ( in Q2 it was 60 cr ) - indicating a strong ramp up

Jammu facility has not had a positive contribution to EBITDA margins ( till now ). Still the numbers r looking strong. Once Jammu facility turns EBITDA positive, numbers can be even better ( should turn EBITDA positive wef Q4 )

Jammu facility is expected to turn profitable at annual sales run rate of > 400 cr

International geographic expansions is helping expand the branded generics business in a rapid fashion

Current capacity utilisations @ Baddi, Taloja, Dehradun facilities vary in the range of 55-60 pc ( as of Q3 ). Jammu is in ramp up phase ( the plant has a peak revenue potential of 1400 cr )

CMO facilities often peak out @ 70-75 pc capacity utilisation levels. That means the existing plants have an additional revenue potential of 15 - 20 pc

Disc: holding, small position, inclined to add more, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted for educational purposes

3 Likes
1746

Thyrocare Technologies -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 196 vs 166 cr, up 18 pc

EBITDA - 57 vs 41 cr, up 38 pc ( margins @ 29 vs 25 pc - massive margin expansion )

PAT - 27 vs 19 cr, up 47 pc ( despite one time exceptional item hit of 6 cr )

Pathology revenues grew by 20 pc, contribution to EBITDA @ 60.5 cr

Radiology revenues de-grew by 7 pc, contribution to EBITDA @ 1.5 cr

Company’s total no of Labs @ 40 ( vs 38 in Q2 ). Zone wise distribution of labs is as follows -

West - 9

East - 6

North - 14

South - 10

International ( @ Tanzania ) - 1

All of company’s labs are NABL certified ( a feat no one else in the Industry has achieved, no body is even close )

Notes from previous concalls -

Company’s Tanzania business is expected to double in FY 26 vs 25. This business should break even in next 1.5-2 yrs time

Company’s franchisee can be a nursing home, standalone hospital, standalone collection center, standalone clinic etc. Out of the 10k franchisees that they have, only 1k use Thyrocare brand. Others collect samples under their own hospital / clinic’s name and send the sample to Thyrocare for testing and get a Thyrocare branded report. Franchisees also provide their own Phlebotomists

Company also has its own dedicated team of aprox 1900 phlebotomists. These ppl service company’s partnerships like bigger hospitals ( corporates ), insurance players, MedTech channels etc ( like PharmEasy )

Most of company’s growth is coming from their bigger franchise partners ( ie top 5k franchisees )

At present B2G is not a large focus area for the company ( At present, 1 pc of company’s sales come from B2G business )

Q2,Q4 are seasonally strong Qtrs. Q1,Q3 are generally softer. Overall H1 vs H2 margins should be similar

Company is investing heavily into their cold chain infrastructure - helps a lot in improving test accuracy, customer satisfaction, franchisee retention, reducing test to result timelines

Notes form Q3 concall -

No of tests performed @ 4.9 vs 4.1 cr, up 21 pc

No of patients tested @ 45 vs 40 lakh, up 14 pc

Active franchisees @ 10.27k vs 9.15k, up 12 pc

Revenue per patient @ 394 vs 371, up 6 pc

Tests per patient @ 11 vs 9.8, up 12 pc

Revenues per test @ 35.9 vs 36.6, down 2 pc

Segmental breakdown of revenues -

Franchise - 112 vs 100 cr, up 12 pc

Partnership - 60 vs 43 cr, up 39 pc

D2C - 10 vs 9 cr, up 12 pc

Have hired Madhuri Dixit as a brand ambassador

Added 200 franchisees in Q3

Have launched allergy tests in Q3. Have also included them in their highest selling Aarogyam packages at no extra cost

Company’s business with Pharmeasy grew by 30 pc YoY. Company’s pre policy medical insurance grew by a massive 70 pc YoY in Q3

Tanzania’s business grew by 140 pc in Q3. Expect the Tanzania business to start breaking even in next 12-18 months

PAT is adversely impacted to the tune of 3 cr due implementation of new labour codes

Company’s team of Phlebotomists now stands @ 2000 personnel

The rapid growth of health tech business + number of new policies issued by health insurance companies - is a huge tailwind for the company ( as they partner with both sets to drive their business )

Company continues to maintain that their long term revenue growth rates should continue to remain in Mid teens

Intend to invest heavily in speciality tests. This should put some pressure on accrual of further operating leverage ( with booming sales growth ) - capping the EBITDA margins. But these speciality tests should help them improve their growth rates

Should end FY 26 with revenues of 4-5 cr in the Tanzania mkt ( a small contribution in overall scheme of things )

Franchise business should continue to grow @ 12-15 pc rates. Partnership business should keep growing @ 18 - 20 pc or so

Should also be entering genomics in near future. There is room for multiple players to exist in the genomics space as it’s in infancy. If a large corporate enters this space and improves awareness, its should be a blessing for the Industry

9M FY 26 capex stood @ 28 cr

As the base of partnership business grows, the growth rates should moderate going forward

My observation - management has a habit of under promising and over delivering

Most of the franchisee additions that the company undertakes happens in Q2 and Q4 ( ie in peak seasons )

Company offers a credit of 60-120 days wrt their partnership business ( also includes their Govt business )

Guiding for similar EBITDA margins going forward ( due higher investments, despite improvements in topline )

Disc: hold a small position, not SEBI registered, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

3 Likes
1747

Bajaj Auto -

Q3 FY 26 concall and results highlights -

Revenues - 16204 vs 13169 cr, up 23 pc

EBITDA - 3730 vs 2751 cr, up 35 pc ( margins @ 23 vs 21 pc )

Other income - 359 vs 399 cr

PAT - 2750 vs 2196 cr, up 25 pc ( due lower other income + exceptional expenses towards implementation of new labour codes )

Cash on books @ 15k cr ( after distributing dividends of > 5k cr, Injecting >2k cr into subsidiaries )

Volume performance -

Domestic two wheeler sales @ 6.01 vs 5.87 lakh, up 2 pc

Domestic CV sales @ 1.29 vs 1.19 lakh, up 9 pc

Export two wheeler sales @ 5.31 vs 4.66 lakh, up 14 pc

Export CV sales @ .79 vs .59 lakh, up 56 pc

Q3 Grand total @ 13.41 vs 12.24 lakh, up 10 pc ( CVs up 23 pc, 2Ws up 7 pc )

For 9Ms FY 26, grand total @ 37.46 vs 35.48 lakh, up 6 pc ( CVs up 19 pc, 2Ws down 3 pc )

Reported strong sales performance across LatAm, Asia and Africa ( LatAm is a high margin mkt )

LatAm sales are led by Columbia, Brazil and Mexico

KTM exports to Austria grew by 15 pc YoY ( after a turbulent last few Qtrs )

In 3Q, 2W industry has grown by 15 pc ( vs a 2 pc growth reported by Bajaj Auto ). Industry is likely to sustain 10-12 pc kind of growth in Q4 as well

Company launched a number of new Pulsar variants / upgrades to support growth. Regular product interventions in the Pulsar portfolio shall continue in next 2-3 Qtrs as well

Company’s mkt share in domestic CE 3Ws is @ 70 pc, in CNG 3Ws is @ 85 pc. Company also ranks no1 in domestic E-3Ws industry ( fastest growing part of 3Ws ) with battery capacities ranging from 9 KwH to 18 KwH

Chetak is now ranked no 2 in the domestic E 2Ws industry. Have launched 2 new Chetak variants in Jan 26 - both priced below 95k mark. Should help them grow this portfolio even further

Electric 2W + 3W now contribute to 25 pc of domestic revenues clocking 1000 cr of Qtly revenue each ( total crossing 2k cr / Qtr )

KTM + Triumph sales crossed 35k units ( vs 30k units in Q2 ), grew by 50 pc YoY - KTM sales growth led by Adventure models + Duke 160s. Triumph sales continued good sales momentum despite not being a beneficiary of GST cuts

Will be launching joint KTM + Triumph showrooms to improve dealer economics

Spares sales @ 1800 cr, up 18 pc YoY ( high margin business )

BACL’s AUM now @ 16k cr ( vs 14k cr in Q2 ). Delivered a PAT of 200 cr in Q3 ( vs 132 cr in Q2 )

Currency tailwinds helped profitability in Q3

Witnessed withdrawal of PM E Drive benefits towards the end of Q3 ( to the tune of aprox 20k / vehicle ) - company did not pass on the price hike to consumers

Exceptional item towards implementation of new labour code stood @ 62 cr

RoE @ BACL in 9Ms ( annualised ) stood @ 20 pc

The ongoing and upcoming Pulsar interventions are meaningful tech and design upgrades that’s aimed to position them above their competitors

Recent surge in commodity prices is a cause for concern. May have to hike prices if prices don’t cool off. Export revenues does help them offset commodity inflation to some extent

Dominar continues to do really well in LatAm ( selling much more than India sales ). Company believes that Dominar is an under leveraged brand in India. Can do much more with this brand in India

New 125 cc launch in FY 27 - may be a new brand or a revival of their dormant / discontinued brands

Should be able to clock 2 lakh units / month kind of export sales in Q4 ( despite a shorter Feb + early closure of billing before 31st in Mar - an yearly phenomenon )

Domestic 2W sales growth should be back to double digits wef Jan 26 ( sounded confident of the same ) - this has otherwise been a constant pain point for the company

2W + 3W electric portfolio is now clocking EBITDA margins > 10 pc

BACL should not require any further capital infusions in medium term

BACL’s profitability is better than most other NBFCs because - its operating from within Bajaj Dealerships + its not into manpower intensive kind of operations + the availability of captive Bajaj customers

Company’s exports realisation in Q3 was @ Rs 88 / USD

RiKi is seeing good product acceptance. Product is now available across 40 cities ( vs < 10 cities in Q2 ). Real scale up should happen wef Q1 next FY

Disc: holding a small position, looking to add more, not SEBI registered, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation

3 Likes
1748

Insecticides India -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Q3 outcomes -

Revenues - 385 vs 358 cr, up 8 pc

Gross margins @ 32.4 vs 36.1 pc

EBITDA - 27 vs 31 cr, down 10 pc ( margins @ 7.1 vs 8.6 pc )

PAT - 10 vs 17 cr, down 40 pc

Share of sale of premium : generic products @ 53 : 47 vs 52 : 48 YoY

B2C : B2B : Export sales @ 77 : 17 : 6 vs 82 : 11 : 7 on a YoY basis

9M FY 26 outcomes -

Revenues - 1714 vs 1641 cr, up 4 pc

Gross margins @ 32 vs 31 pc

EBITDA - 201 vs 193 cr, up 5 pc ( margins @ 11.8 vs 11.7 pc )

PAT - 128 vs 128 cr, flat YoY

Share of sale of premium : generic products @ 59 : 41 - flat YoY

B2C : B2B : Export @ 76 : 20 : 4 vs 78 : 18 : 4 on a YoY basis

Manufacturing footprint -

3 - Active ingredients plants ( @ Chopanki, Sotanala and Dahej )
6 - Formulation plants ( @ Chopanki, Dahej - 1, Dahej -2, Udhampur, Samba, Sotanala )
1 - Biologics plant ( Shamli )
4 - R&D centers

Comments from previous concalls -

At present, company has 16 Focus Maharana products. These r high growth, high margin products ( mostly with Pan India presence ). Aim is to keep graduating more products from Maharatna to Focus Maharatna category. Maharatna products are currently smaller with regional presence. These Maharatna + Focus Maharatna products have gross margins > 35 pc vs 15 pc for plain vanilla generics

Dahej technical plant has gone live in Q2. Company expects to clock 100 cr in sales from this plant in FY 26 + 40-50 pc CAGR for next 3-4 yrs from this plant

Company is going to spend Rs 125 cr over next 2 yrs @ Sotanala to set up the AI + Formulations facility. This facility should have a peak revenue potential of aprox 500 cr

For a product to be categorised as Focus Maharatna, it has to do an annual sales of > 35 cr with > 35 pc GMs

Have lined up 6 product launches for H2. Three of them are going to be Maharatna products

Most of the AIs ( > 70 pc ) that go into Maharatna + Focus Maharatna products are made in house or sourced through their MNC collaboration partners

Comments from Q3 concall -

Q3’s operating environment was challenging. B2C off takes remained weak. Most of growth was volume led in B2B segments

Pressure on GMs due higher B2B sales and higher base of last FY

Launched 5 new products in last 9Ms. Shall be launching another 5 products in the upcoming kharif season

Expect Q4 outcomes to be in line with Q3 with continued impact on margins. Shall be focussing on topline growth and mkt share protection

Shall continue to work hard towards business hygiene in Q4 - like controlling the working capital, working on reducing the receivables and inventory management

FY 27 should see profitability revival / improvement

Dahej -2 and Sotanala formulation plants should start to ramp up meaningfully wef next FY

Recent launches like - Sparkle ( Insecticide - InLicensed from Corteva - aimed at controlling brown plant hopper in paddy crops ), Centran ( broad spectrum Insecticide ), Torry Super ( post emergence herbicide ), Million ( herbicide for wheat crop ), Altair ( InLicensed from Nissan Corp, under patent - post emergent herbicide ) - are all doing well in the mkt place

Company has 180+ export registrations ( of formulations ) in 20+ countries

Sparkle and Altair r expected to post 6 cr each kind of sales in Q4

Sotanala AI plant shall go live wef Q4 FY 27

AI prices continue to remain subdued ( however have definitely stopped falling )

Volume growth in B2B and B2C segments in Q3 was @ 15 and 3 pc respectively

In Q4, company is likely to offer price discounts to the tune of 5-6 pc ( that happens every year )

Sales returns in Q3 were @ 50 cr ( up 40 pc YoY - due weak season + high inventory levels of herbicides due excessive and prolonged rains in Q2, early Q3 ). Should not witness any more sales returns going forward

Prices of many AIs are @ all time lows ( vs last 20 yr prices ). Unlikely to fall any further. Company expects the prices to start moving upwards wef Mar 26

Backward Integration in AI manufacturing is a continuous process that the company engages in { they keep going back in terms of performing N-1, N-2, N-3, N-4 ( and so on ) steps - in house as the molecule’s traction keeps improving }

Domestic agrochemicals mkt has de-grown by 2-3 pc in Q3. Should see bounce back in mkt growth rates wef Q1 next FY

Over medium term, company intends to clock 70 pc of sales from premium products ( speciality, in-licensed, new gen generics etc ). Have been slowly cutting their long tail of old generation generics

Expanding their technicals manufacturing capacities and deepening the backward integration of technicals is a conscious decision that the company has made

Topline growth for FY 27, 28 should be in double digits with gradual margin expansions in both FYs

Out of the 5 product launches planned in next 6 months, 3 are expected to be speciality and 2 are expected to be generic products

Disc: holding, small position, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

1 Like
1749

Ajanta Pharma -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 1345 vs 1146 cr, up 20 pc

Gross margins @ 79 vs 78 pc

EBITDA - 382 vs 321 cr, up 19 pc ( due sharp rise in employee benefits, up 24 pc + other expenses, up 27 pc )

PAT - 274 vs 233 cr, up 18 pc

Segmental revenues -

India branded - 409 vs 345 cr, up 19 pc

Asia branded - 288 vs 316 cr, down 9 pc

Africa branded - 230 vs 173 cr, up 33 pc

Total branded sales @ 927 vs 834 cr, up 11 pc

US generics @ 399 vs 263 cr, up 52 pc

Africa generics @ 41 vs 33 cr, up 22 pc

Total generic sales @ 440 vs 296 cr, up 48 pc

In 9Ms FY 26, branded sales r up 9 pc @ 2831 cr. Generic sales r up 43 pc @ 1163 cr

R&D expenses continue to clock healthy run rate of 5 pc of revenues

Company has 50 ANDA approvals in US with 49 products on shelf. Have launched 3 products in last 9 months

Therapy wise growth for the company in India business -

Cardiac @ 5 pc

Opthal @ 12 pc

Derma @ 14 pc

Pain management @ 9 pc

Breakup of India business growth @ 3 pc volume + 4 pc price + 4 pc new products. Launched 16 new products in India in last 9Ms ( out of which 1 product was first to mkt )

India MR strength @ 3750 covering 2.7 lakh doctors

66 pc of India sales come from Chronic products. 11 pc of sales come from products under NLEM

Continue to invest heavily behind their Branded generics business across India + Asia + African mkts

Asia business has performed below company’s expectations led by a few geographies. Launched 9 new branded products in Asia in last 9Ms - largely in chronic segments

Launched 7 new branded products in Africa in last 9Ms

US generics growth led by 8 new product launches over last 12 months + relentless execution and deep customer relationships

India business also included trade generic sales of 43 cr

Their recent foray into Gynae therapy is expected to yield good results going forward

Added 300 MRs in India business in last 9Ms

Gross margins in Q4 are expected to sustain near Q3 levels

Capex in 9Ms stood @ 250 cr. Should spend another 50 cr in Q4

Company is guiding for mid teens revenue growth for full FY 26. Growth in 9Ms has been 16 pc - indicating a similar growth trend in Q4 as well

Gross margins expansion is a huge positive ( imo ). Company expects to maintain this run rate going forward as well

Expect US business to grow in double digits in next FY as well

Will be launching GLPs in the first wave ( starting Mar 26 ). Will be sourcing Semaglutide from Biocon for sales across 26 countries

Actively looking at inorganic acquisitions to accelerate their growth rates - because of this dividend payout may be limited in foreseeable future

Wrt Semaglutide ( GLP 1s ) - competition in India is expected to be much higher ( 15 odd players ) vs their other markets in Asia and Africa ( 3 - 4 players each )

Asia business growth rates should start witnessing improvements wrt Q4

Over and above the new launches, the volume growth in base business in US has also been very healthy

Disc: hold a small position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/ sell recommendation, biased, posted for educational purposes

3 Likes
1750

Dr Reddy -

Q3 FY 26 results and Concall highlights -

Revenues - 8753 vs 8381 cr, up 4.5 pc

EBITDA - 2049 vs 2273 cr, down 11 pc ( margins @ 23.5 vs 27 pc )

PAT - 1210 vs 1404 cr, down 15 pc

Cash on books @ 3069 cr

Q3 capex stood @ 670 cr. Capex in H1 stood @ 1195 cr

EBITDA margins would have been @ 24.8 pc but for one time impact of implementation of new labour laws

Q3 business highlights -

Strategic collaboration with Immutep for commercialisation of a novel, immunotherapy oncology drug - Eftilagimod Alfa, in key Emerging Markets

Launched Hevaxin®, a novel, recombinant vaccine for prevention of Hepatitis-E virus infection in India

Completed integration of 85% of acquired NRT business by value

Received Marketing Authorisation for Semaglutide injection in India from DCGI

Filed BLA for Abatacept biosimilar (IV) for US in Dec’25 ( used to treat various types of Arthritis )

Received EC for Europe and MHRA, UK approval for Denosumab biosimilar. Launched in Germany in Dec’25 ( used to treat Osteoporosis )

Acquired Stugeron® & related brands for 18 markets in APAC (incl. key markets India & Vietnam) as well as EMEA. Its used to treat vertigo, motion sickness, balance disorders

Launched 2 novel, Gastro-Intestinal drugs in India – Tegoprazan as PCAB® & Linaclotide as Colozo®

First-to-market launch of Olopatadine Hydrochloride Ophthalmic Solution, in the US

Geographical split of revenues -

India - 1603 cr, up 19 pc

EMs - 1896 cr, up 32 pc

EU - 1448 cr, up 20 pc

US - 2964 cr, down 12 pc

APIs and Pharma services - 802 cr, down 2 pc

US highlights -

New US launches in Q3 and 9Ms stood @ 6 and 18 products respectively. Witnessed moderate price erosion in US business

Base business ( Ex-Revlimid ) grew by 2.6 pc

India highlights -

Now ranked 9th in IPM. Ranked no 1 in Stomatology and no 2 in Vaccines

Company has 15 brands in top 300 brands in IPM. No of brands with 100 cr+ revenues @ 23 brands

EM highlights -

Company is present in 48 countries. Launched 30 new products in Q3 and 80 new products in 9Ms

56 pc of company’s EM revenues comes from Russian mkt. Another 13 pc comes from CIS countries

EU highlights -

Major mkts include - France, Italy, UK and Germany ( driving aprox 50 pc of company’s EU revenues )

Aprox 50 pc of sales come from the acquired NRT business

Launched 10 products in Q3 and 31 products in 9Ms

Highlights from Q3 commentary -

Gross and EBITDA margin declines are primarily attributable to steep fall in sales of Revlimid

R&D spends in Q3 stood @ 615 cr ( 7 pc of sales - very healthy levels )

NRT business’s residual integration wrt certain countries in LatAm, ME, Asia Pacific should happen by end of Q4

Without acquired Stugeron® portfolio, India business growth was @ 17 pc - very strong organic growth. Company has been launching a series of innovative products in India - resulting in great mkt acceptance

Company expects to launch Semaglutide in Canada before May 26. India launch is slated to happen in last week of Mar 26. In EMs, company’s Semaglutide is expected to be priced @ around $ 20-30 / dose. Brazil, Turkey launches should happen by Jul 26. Company shall be making the Peptide API for Semaglutide - in house

Also plan to launch Abatacept Europe by July 27. Company is expected to be the first company to launch Biosimilar Abatacept in EU ( just like US )

NRT is business is clocking very healthy EBITDA margins of > 25 pc. Company is guiding for 25 pc kind of EBITDA margins for this business over medium term

CDMO business is currently in early stages. Company is focussing on this segment since last 2 yrs. Should achieve descent scale in next 3 yrs ( 800-900 cr kind of topline )

India business should grow @ > 15 pc for next FY ( with an upward bias )

Disc: hold a trading position, not SEBI registered, biased, posted for educational purposes

4 Likes
1751

Dr Lal Pathlabs -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 660 vs 597 cr, up 10 pc

EBITDA - 179 vs 154 cr, up 16 pc ( margins @ 27 vs 26 pc )

PAT - 91 vs 98 cr ( impacted by an exceptional one time charge of 30 cr - impact of new labour laws )

For 9Ms FY 26, revenues and EBITDA have grown by 10 and 13 pc respectively @ 2060 vs 1859 cr and 596 vs 527 cr

Swasthfit’s contribution to total revenue @ 26 pc

Cash on books @ 1411 cr ( surplus cash position and internal accruals are expected to fund next leg of growth for the company )

Added 15 new tests to company’s product portfolio in Q3. Out of these, a few are first in India further strengthening their high end / complex testing capabilities

Current network @ 298 clinical labs, 6607 patient service centres and 12365 pick up points

Investing heavily in genomics / sequencing / complex allergy testing technologies. These techs may become big sometime in future ( by and large, its a futuristic investment )

Company’s radiology revenues are less than 5 pc of total revenues. Company is only into basic radiology at the moment ( like ultrasound, TMT, X Ray etc ). Currently not doing advanced radiology like - CT, MRI etc. Likely to keep focussing on pathology at the moment. However, advanced radiology can be a future growth driver

Company is currently running a test project in Delhi NCR for advanced radiological testing - MRIs / CT scans etc. It’s getting good response. Now they intend to scale it up. Likely to set up 1-2 more centers like that. Once successful, shall then roll out radiological testing in other mkts as well. However, expansion in Delhi NCR shall be their first priority

Notes from Q3 concall -

Launched ’ SOVAAKA ’ range of tests in Q3 - aimed at disease prevention vs detection

Patient volume growth in Q3 stood @ 2.7 pc

Rev per patient @ Rs 927 vs Rs 861, up 7.7 pc YoY ( led by better test mix )

Tests per patient @ 3.1 vs 2.9, up 7 pc YoY

Have declared an interim dividend of Rs 3.5 / share ( on a post split basis )

For last 2 yrs, company was focussing on organic only growth. With cash on books now, should go for inorganic growth as well

Expanding and promoting the SWASTHFIT tests in tier 2 and below mkts - its growing much faster than company’s topline growth rate of 10 odd pc

Seasonal fever portfolio saw a YoY decline in Q3 - dragging company’s overall growth rates

Annual EBITDA margin trajectory should be in the 28 +/- 1 pc kind of range

Have opened a second advanced radiology center in Delhi / NCR in Q3 ( after the first pilot lab was opened LY )

B2C share of sales in 9Ms FY 26 stood @ 75 pc

Radiology component of company’s business continues to remain under 5 pc. Radiology’s revenues may only become meaningful after 2-3 yrs

Company’s push and expansion ( opening new labs + collection centers ) into tier 3 and below + rural areas shall continue to drive their organic growth

Looking at inorganic acquisitions - specially in the South Indian mkts ( NE is another preferred geography )

Not looking to hike prices for next 2-3 Qtrs

Have passed on the benefits of GST cuts on reagents and other inputs to the customers by lowering the costs of tests proportionately ( in second half of Q3 ) - were still able to grow their revenues per patient

SOVAAKA also includes personalised tests + imaging / radiology tests ( unlike Swasthfit )

Disc: hold a trading position, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

1 Like
1752

Ambuja Cement -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 10277 vs 9411 cr, up 9 pc ( Q3 LY revenues include a one time income of 826 cr. Adjusted for that, revenues would ve grown by 20 pc )

EBITDA - 1353 vs 1712 cr ( margins @ 13.2 vs 18.2 YoY, due presence of exceptional income in base Qtr. Adjusted for that, EBITDA would have grown by 53 pc )

PAT - 367 vs 2663 cr ( due higher other income + exceptional income mentioned above + tax write backs + impact of new labour code implementation to the tune of 107 cr )

EBITDA / MT @ Rs 718 vs Rs 528, up 31 pc ( adjusted for all the one offs )

Consol sales volumes @ 18.9 vs 16.2 MMT, up 17 pc

Share of sales from premium products @ 35 pc ( volume growth in premium products @ 31 pc )

Capacity @ the end of Q3 stands @ 109 MMTPA

For 9Ms FY 26 ( adjusted for all one offs ) -

Revenues - 29740 vs 24392 cr, up 22 pc

EBITDA - 5075 vs 3119 cr, up 62 pc

EBITDA / MT @ Rs 943 vs Rs 692

Volumes @ 53.8 vs 45.3 MMTs

Company continues to remain debt free

Capacity is expected to reach 115 MMTPA by end of Mar 26 and company has a target of taking these capacities to 155 MMTPA by Mar 28

Company aspires to incline its EBITDA / MT to Rs 1500 vs Rs 943 ( at present ) - this should bring in a lot of operating leverage !!!

Current share of green power @ 38 pc. Aim to incline this to 60 pc by Mar 28

Current power generated from waste heat recovery system @ 228 MW. Aim to incline this to 376 MW by Mar 28

Current power generation from renewable sources @ 898 MW. Aim to incline this to 1122 MW by Mar 27 ( not Mar 28 )

Cost / MT @ aprox Rs 4000 / MT - exit of Dec 25. 9Ms avg was Rs 4300 / MT. Aim to reduce this to Rs 3600 / MT by Mar 28

Avg capacity utilisation of acquired assets in Q3 stood @ 58 pc. However, the Dec exit asset utilisation stood @ 65 pc. Company is confident of ramping this upto 80 pc in next 1-2 yrs

Jan prices have improved by 5-10 pc + volume growth of aprox 10 pc - very healthy trends for Q4

Avg cost / MT in Q3 was elevated @ Rs 4500 / MT due elevated brand investments. Company is back to below Rs 4000 / MT wef Jan 26

Avg power costs for the company @ Rs 6.1/ unit - should fall further going forward

EBITDA / MT run rate should be around Rs 1000 / MT in Q4 vs Rs 713 / MT in Q3 on account of reduced costs wef Jan

Trade : Institutional sales @ 65 : 35. Prices / bag in trade channels are better by aprox Rs / bag vs institutional sales. In Jan, trade to institutional sales are trending @ 70 : 30

Should be able to achieve cost / ton of Rs 3800 / ton by Mar 27

In Q3, the Adani Group, through its subsidiary Ambuja Cements, emerged as the front-runner to acquire the cement assets of the debt-ridden Jaypee Group (Jaiprakash Associates Ltd) for approximately ₹12,000–₹12,600 crore. This would further add 10 million tons to company’s cement capacities

Should be able to add 10-15 million tons of capacities via de-bottlenecking - over next 2 yrs

Power costs are expected to fall to Rs 4.5 / unit vs Rs 6.1 / unit at present

Capex guidance for next 2 yrs should be 8000 cr / yr for growth + 2000 cr / yr for maintenence ( for reference - depreciation charges per yr are currently @ 3500 cr )

Price / bag are improvement in the institutional sales is > retail segment because the fall in the former was also greater

Continue to remain open to inorganic growth opportunities ( like in the past ) - however, the intensity of inorganic push should reduce going forward

Pricing in Q3 was better in West + North India, subdued in East and Central India - Eastern mkts started recovering wef Dec, modest in South

Should be able to clock double digit volume growth for Q4 ( industry should grow @ > 8 pc kind of rates )

Disc: hold a small position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

1753

Hi,

I have been following your macro views. I wanted to know whether do you think with all the energy that will be required to support the capex spend related to AI and data centres, the renewable sources will not be able to support it and slowly, for energy security reasons, countries might let go of their pledges made for carbon reduction? That is coal and crude might have a longer runway than initially thought? Specifically, this led me to again look into Coal India and ONGC and other oil companies.

Your thoughts will be welcome. Thank you.

1754

Finding it very helpful to understand inputs shared by @ranvir from a specific sector/stock specific growth perspective

(eg- which specific sector or stock within a XYZ sector is growing?

What does the forward guidance look like?

Or even validate if my own assumption about a stock/sector is correct? etc. )

and then using these inputs to build a strategy to initiate or add to positions in sectoral Index funds/ETFs or thematic mutual funds where some of his stocks might also find a mention.

This is not a recommendation to buy/initiate anything. Please do your own research, everyone.

In addition, anyone seriously investing in the stock market or even wishing to build wealth using the mutual fund route only, subscribing to atleast 2 of the 4 global financial news outlets/resources i.e Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg or Reuters is essential. They can offer us much required clarity and perspective while helping us cut down on a lot of noise over a period of time.

Just sharing some ideas that could help, thanks.

3 Likes
1755

Mankind Pharma -

Q3 FY 26 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 3567 vs 3199 cr, up 11 pc

Gross margins @ 72.6 vs 70.9 pc

Adjusted EBITDA - 923 vs 856 cr, up 5 pc ( adjusted for one offs + impact of new labour laws )

PAT - 414 vs 385 cr, up 10 pc

Adjusted EBITDA margins @ 25.9 vs 27.6 pc

Debt on books @ 4294 on 31 Dec 25 vs 6739 cr on 31 Dec 24

9M FY 26 vs 9M FY 25 capex @ 473 vs 344 cr

Segmental performance -

Domestic formulations -

Revenues @ 3046 vs 2742 cr, up 11 pc - driven by steady growth in base business + consolidation of BSV business

Company’s acute therapies lagged the IPM growth amid the ongoing corrective actions taken by the company

Chronic therapies like Cardiac and Anti Diabetes grew by 16.7 and 14.4 pc respectively - a key positive. Company’s chronic share of revenues now @ 40.8 vs 39.1 pc in Dec 25

Company’s inhaler offerings - Symbicort + Combihale grew strongly @ 30 pc. Nobeglar ( insulin glargine ) grew 38 pc YoY

Consumer healthcare -

Revenues @ 203 vs 193 cr, up 5 pc. E-Comm share increased to 13.1 pc ( E Comm channel grew by 40 pc on a YoY basis )

Exports -

Revenues @ 521 vs 457 cr, up 14 pc - led by BSV’s portfolio. Mankind + BSV now have a portfolio of 48 products in US

BSV’s portfolio is targeted towards - Women’s health + Fertility and Critical care segments. BSV’s domestic : export sales mix is @ 50:50. Most of these products come with high entry barriers ( wrt development R&D ) and novel delivery platforms like - Recombinants, Liposomals, Immunoglobulins and Biologics

Mankind now has 3 brands with sales > 500 cr ( Telmikind + Neurokind ), 11 brands with sales > 200 cr, 23 brands with sales > 100 cr and 49 brands with sales > 50 cr

BSV had acquired TTK’s human healthcare business in 2022. Post BSV’s acquisition by Mankind, this business is naturally ( now ) with Mankind. This business has started to show meaningful improvement in last 1-2 Qtrs led by cost efficiencies, better bargaining power with vendors, improving MR productivity

MR productivity improved to @ 7.2 vs 6.5 lakh / month ( as on 31 Dec vs 31 Mar 25 ) - aprox 10 pc productivity gain over last 6 months

One of their acquired brands - Glizid ( anti diabetic therapy ), acquired from Panacea Bio in 2022 - crossed 200 cr annual revenue run rate ( grew by 30 pc in Q3 )

For 9Ms FY 26, export sales are up 50 pc YoY

BSV grew in double digits in Q3 on a YoY basis

Q3 fin costs @ 157 vs 175 cr QoQ ( due partial debt payments made in Q3 )

Depreciation + Amortisation @ 223 vs 187 cr YoY due full qtr impact of BSV’s acquisition in Q3 current FY vs half Qtr impact in Q3 LY

In-Licensed products ( at present ) contribute to aprox 2 pc of company’s annual sales

The organisational level restructuring / transformation underway at Mankind ( like laying off a lot of employees and replacing them by hiring from companies like Sun, Cipla etc - to drive company’s push towards chronic therapies + prescription driven sales ) - is taking more time to stabilise than previously expected by the company. Company believes, the bulk of pain of restructuring is behind. Should only see improvements going forward

Company has also reduced its no of stockists for their OTC business in a major way ( over last 4 Qtrs - as a part of business transformation ) - a major step towards improving business hygiene. This has also hurt their primary sales

9M FY 26 sales growth for BSV has been in early teens

Mankind is on track towards day - 1 launch of GLP-1 generics

Seeing good recovery in Gynaec + Gastro portfolios. Should accelerate going forward ( aim to accelerate these therapies growth rates to the way their Cardiac and Anti-diabetic therapies are growing )

As a part of the transformation initiatives taken by the company, at present 20-25 pc of company’s total employees strength is new to the company ( ie hired within last 12 months )

Disc: core holding, not SEBI registered, biased, I m ready to be patient here, posted only for educational purposes

1756

Sorry ….. Inadvertently posted here

1757

I agree …. on a broad brush basis. One can’t bet against anything that feeds into enabling the build up of AI infra

1758

Look at natural gas prices. Mainly due to data centres.

1759

Hero MotoCorp -

Q3 FY 26 results and Concall highlights -

Revenues - 12487 vs 10483 cr, up 21 pc

EBITDA - 1752 vs 1416 cr, up 23 pc ( margins @ 14.9 vs 14.5 pc )

PAT - 1275 vs 1108 cr, up 15 pc ( lower growth in PAT is due to an exceptional charge of 119 cr taken towards implementation of new labour codes )

Declared a generous dividend of Rs 110 / share

Q3 volumes sold ( bikes + scooters ) @ 16.97 vs 14.64 lakh, up 16 pc

ICE EBITDA margins @ 17 vs 16 pc. Consol EBITDA @ 14.2 vs 14 pc due investments being made towards EV business

Parts and accessories sales @ 1750 cr, up 8 pc YoY

Glamour X and Xtreme 125 R ( both growing rapidly ) - are helping the company grow their mkt share in the 125 cc segment

ICE scooters mkt share now @ 7 pc ( supported by Destini and Xoom variants )

No of premier stores now @ 106

Mkt share of Vida EV is now in double digits @ 10.5 pc. Vida is among the top 2 players in 37 towns across India

Exports grew by 47 pc YoY. 40 pc of global sales come from premium products

Jan sales @ 5.2 lakh units, up 26 pc YoY. Expecting Industry growth to remain in double digits in Q4 as well

Metal price inflation is now catching up. May resort to price hikes if required ( have already hiked prices by Rs 300 / vehicle wef 1 Jan )

Bangladesh, Columbia - continue to be company’s biggest export markets ( and growing fast despite political problems ). Opening up new dealerships across West and North Africa, also opening up to new countries in LatAm and selectively in EU

9M FY 26 growth in exports has been @ 50 pc - very encouraging. Products that r doing very well in Export mkts include - Hunk 160 /250, Xoom 110

Commodity price inflation is not such a worry at the moment - because of the price cuts due GST rate reduction have brought down the product prices to where they were 3-4 yrs back. Plus there is operating leverage

Company’s mkt share in Columbia is now @ 9 pc ( vs 5 pc LY )

Hero Fincorp is currently making losses - ie in FY 26 ( it’s a broad spectrum NBFC ). Should turn PAT positive wef next FY ( was PAT positive till FY 25 ). Company intends to improve the share of secured lending to mid 70s from mid 60s at present + improve the collection efficiencies going forward. Also intend to list Hero Fincorp in near future

Q3 EBITDA loss in EV business was @ 208 cr vs 250 cr QoQ

Have launched models like in XPulse 200 + X 440 in EU ( launched wef Q3 )

Receiving buoyant demand from BAAS variants of Vida EV where the prices start from below 50k / unit

Will be expanding their EV capacities in FY 27

Disc: hold small positions in Hero Moto + Bajaj Auto, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy / sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

3 Likes