Ranvir's Portfolio

[ranvir]

Elecon Engineering -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Company’s product profile -

Gears -

Company is a supplier of widest range of Industrial gears

Serve mainly to Industries like - Power, Cement, Sugar, Steel, Plastic, Defence, Mining, Rubber

Company is already a mkt leader in domestic mkt and is strategically expanding in overseas mkts

Products in this segment include - Helical gearboxes, Series gearboxes, Worm gearboxes, Couplings, Planetary gearboxes, Marine gearboxes, Custom made gearboxes, Central drive mill gearboxes, Double helical gear wheel, Loose gears etc

MHE ( material handling equipment ) -

Products include - Feeders, Pulleys, Automatic Weighing, Stackers, Mobile stackers, Truck Loaders etc

End user industries include - Steel, Cement, mining, Fertilisers, Power, Ports, Oil and Gas

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 2227 vs 1937 cr, up 15 pc
EBITDA - 543 vs 474 cr, up 15 pc ( margins @ 24.4 vs 24.5 pc )
PAT - 415 vs 356 cr, up 16 pc

Segmental revenue breakup -

Gears - 1763 vs 1669 cr, up 5.6 pc
MHE - 464 vs 269 cr, up 73 pc

Working capital days @ 77 vs 72
RoCE @ 27 vs 29 pc

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 798 vs 565 cr, up 41 pc
EBITDA - 195 vs 135 cr, up 44 pc ( margins @ 24.5 vs 24 pc )
PAT - 146 vs 104 cr, up 41 pc

Segmental revenues -

Gears - 597 vs 464 cr
MHE - 200 vs 101 cr, up 98 pc

Open orders as on 31 Mar 25 vs 31 Mar 24 -

Gears - 583 vs 536 cr
MHE - 365 vs 260 cr

Fresh order intake in Q4 FY 25 vs Q4 FY 24 -

Gears - 497 vs 412 cr, up 20 pc
MHE - 148 vs 144 cr, up 3 pc

Geography wise breakup of sales -

Domestic - 1710 vs 1479 cr, up 15.6 pc
International - 517 vs 458 cr, up 12.8 pc
Domestic : International sales @ 76:24

Some excerpts from management commentary -

1. In Q4FY25, our Material Handling Equipment (MHE) division saw a remarkable 98.2% year-on-year revenue growth. EBIT margin stood at 29.6% with an improvement of ~820 bps Y-o-Y. We expect good momentum in this segment in the coming years. Our Gear division, in Q4FY25, also experienced a considerable rebound with growth of 28.9% in revenue and EBIT margin at 24.5%

2. This resurgence has been driven by strong demand in both domestic and international markets. Domestically, demand has picked up meaningfully, particularly from the steel, power, and cement sectors. Overseas business remains healthy, with solid traction seen across international markets. The enquiry levels remain robust, and we are seeing healthy demand internationally

3. We are steadily advancing towards our strategic objective of generating 50% of our consolidated revenue from international markets by FY30. Strengthening relationships with global OEMs and sustained brand-building initiatives continue to reinforce our confidence in achieving this milestone

4. Our growth strategy is supported by strategic alliances with international partners, ongoing investments in R&D and product innovation, and a focused push within the high-growth MHE division. These efforts collectively position us to outperform broader industry trends and accelerate our domestic & global footprint. Our priority is to attain sustainable profitable growth creating long-term value for all our stakeholders

Company is looking to expand its presence in Canada and LatAm in order to compliment their presence in EU and US

Cash on books @ 550 cr

FY 26 guidance - Revenues of 2650 cr with EBITDA margins @ 24 pc. This represents an expected topline growth of 18 pc and EBITDA growth 16 pc for next FY

Order inflow in Q1 FY 25 was very slow. It started to pickup wef Q2

Order inflow from the steel sector was slow in FY 25 but the same is reversing meaningfully in Q1 FY 26. Gear sales from steel de-grew by 6 pc in FY 25

Power and Steel sector should be major growth drivers in FY 26. Demand from sugar sector continues to remain weak. Hoping for a turnaround going forward

Major contributors of sales in the gear division for the company are as follows -

Steel - 11 pc
Sugar - 4 pc
Cement - 9 pc
Power ( mainly thermal ) - 12 pc
Rest - others ( like marine, plastics, Off the Shelf sales, engineering, rubber, mining etc )

Expect to do a sales of 2000 cr from gears sector and 650 cr from MHA division in FY 26. Expect the export sales contribution to rise vs FY 25 ( should rise to around 27-28 pc in FY 26 vs 24 pc in FY 25 )

Company’s results are likely to be on the lumpier side as order flows and executions are never linear

Of the total gears business, 34 pc comes from replacement demand + after sales service

Sales to OEM this year were at 58 cr vs their guidance of 50 cr. This OEM business is primarily coming from Europe

MHA division is likely to be operating @ 23 pc margins. Gear division may be operating @ 25 pc kind of margins

Company is continuously expanding their global reach at a fast place. Order flow from global mkts may be slow to begin. However, once it picks up pace, the ramp up may be rapid. However the global geo-politics and tariff wars are a genuine concern

Wrt further expansion, company is focussing on ME, Canada, South America and SE Asia

For FY 26, expect Depreciation cost of around 75 cr and Finance cost of around 15 cr

Company is looking to win more business from OEMs in the western world. Once this is achieved, the order flows may become more predictable and their repeat business may also go up as a share of their total business

Disc: added recently, tracking position, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Godrej Agrovet -

Q4 and FY 25 results and Concall highlights -

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 9383 vs 9561 cr, down 2 pc

EBITDA - 845 vs 757 cr, up 11 pc ( margins @ 9 vs 7.9 pc ). Margins were hit adversely in FY 25 on account of 60 cr EBITDA loss incurred by Astec Lifesciences

PAT - 386 vs 370 cr, up 4.5 pc. PAT was hit adversely on account of 135 cr of PAT loss incurred by Astec Lifesciences

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 2134 vs 2134 cr, flat
EBITDA - 160 vs 164 cr, down 2.9 pc ( margins @ 7.5 vs 7.7 pc ). In Q4, Astec reported an EBITDA gain of 7 cr vs 14 cr YoY
PAT - 66 vs 70 cr, down 6 pc. In Q4, Astec reported a PAT of (-) 16 vs (-) 1 cr YoY

Segmental results -

Animal feed -

Q4 revenues @ 1146 vs 1190 cr, down 4 pc. EBIT @ 65 vs 68 cr ( margins @ 5.7 vs 5.7 pc )

FY 25 revenues @ 4871 vs 5008 cr, down 4 pc. EBIT @ 291 vs 231 cr ( significant margin improvement @ 6.1 vs 4.6 pc )

Vegetable Oils -

Q4 revenues @ 487 vs 336 cr, up 45 pc. EBIT @ 115 vs 67 cr ( margins @ 23.7 vs 19.9 pc )

FY 25 revenues @ 1136 vs 997 cr, up 14 pc. EBIT @ 212 vs 163 cr ( margins @ 18.6 vs 16.3 pc )

Strong revenue and profitability in veg oils segment due to higher realisations in both Crude Palm oil and Palm Kernel oil

Crop protection business -

Q4 revenues @ 153 vs 119 cr, up 28 pc. EBIT @ 54 vs 41 cr ( margins @ 35 vs 34 pc )

FY 25 revenues @ 764 vs 815 cr, down 6 pc . EBIT @ 308 vs 254 cr ( margins @ 40 vs 31 pc )

Stellar performance throughout the year was driven by higher sales of in-house and traded products portfolio as compared to FY24 which resulted in segment margin of 40% in FY25. However, volume headwinds in respect of in-licensed products due to declining prices of key agricultural crops resulted in decline in segment revenue

Astec lifesciences -

Q4 revenues @ 120 vs 154 cr. EBITDA @ 6 vs 15 cr

FY 25 revenues @ 381 vs 458 cr. EBITDA @ (-) 61 vs NIL ( margins @ negative 16 vs zero pc YoY )

In terms of FY25 performance, Astec’s contract manufacturing and enterprise portfolios faced volume and price headwinds on account of severe demand-supply imbalance and destocking. This adversely impacted topline as well as profitability. In Q4 FY25, Astec reported a sequential improvement in performance as compared to Q3 FY25 on the back of improved volumes and lower input costs

Creamline Dairy -

Q4 revenues @ 384 vs 392 cr, down 2 pc. EBITDA @ 16 vs 30 cr ( margins @ 4.1 vs 7.6 pc )

FY 25 revenues @ 1585 vs 1573 cr. EBITDA @ 79 vs 67 cr ( margins @ 5 vs 4.3 pc )

Dairy business profitability improved over FY25 due to continued focus on improvement in operational efficiencies and improved milk spread. Salience of VAP stood at 37% of total sales. While segment revenue remained flat in Q4 FY25, segment margins declined primarily due to increase in procurement prices

Godrej Foods -

Q4 revenues @ 179 vs 216 cr, down 17 pc. EBITDA @ 9 vs 17 cr ( margins @ 5 vs 8 pc )

FY 25 revenues @ 826 vs 986 cr, down 16 pc. EBITDA @ 50 vs 71 cr ( margins @ 6 vs 7.2 pc )

GFL’s revenue and profitability declined in FY25 as compared to FY24. Decline in revenue & margins was primarily on account of lower volumes of live bird category as GFL continued to focus on branded business & reduce exposure to live bird business. Volumes of branded categories grew by ~4% y-o-y. In Q4 FY25, profitability was adversely impacted due to subdued live bird prices as compared to Q4 FY24. Lower volumes of live bird category resulted in decline in segment revenue as well

Astec has now liquidated most of excess inventory held by the company in their generics segment. Should start to see descent uptick in volumes going forward ( specially wef Q2 ). Currently, company derives 60 pc of their revenues from contract manufacturing. They expect this contribution to go upto 75 pc led by new commercialisations in FY 26. Expect the contract manufacturing space to grow @ 30-35 pc CAGR for next 2 yrs

Higher tariffs on China vs India should augur well for company’s generics + CMO business

Except for Palm oil business, GAVL is not planning any meaningful capex in any other business segment in FY 26 ( beyond routine maintenance )

Seeing very good demand in domestic crop protection business in Q1

Expecting mid to high teens volume growth in FY 26 on a consolidated basis. The growth is expected to be led by Astec, domestic crop protection and animal feed business. LY was exceptionally bad for Astec + Fish feed business. Should see descent recovery in both in FY 26. Company’s bottomline should be boosted once the Astec + Animal feed business recovers

High procurement prices continue in Chicken and Dairy prices in Q1 as well. However, they should be able to pass on the prices in dairy segment as the competition has started hiking prices

Did spend 6 cr towards marketing spends in Q4 iro their dairy business. Should start to see good results going forward

Confident of sustaining margins in animal feed business in FY 26 as well

Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) refinery ( a forward integration executed by the company ) has helped them increase margins by 1-1.5 pc. In process of setting up a refinery for Palm Kernel Oil ( PKO ) as well. This should add another 1 pc to their segmental margins

The prices for CPO are seeing a softening trend. However, the prices of PKO continue to remain strong

Company is undertaking 2 more steps to further reduce margin volatility. These are - (a) setting up a Hydrogenation plant to manufacture processed food products from CPO and PKO. (b) further forward integrating into B2B food products. Once both these are achieved, company should start reaping further benefits wef FY 28

In their foods business, the contribution from live birds segment stood @ 32 by volume and 23 pc by revenues. The rest of volumes ( 68 pc ) and revenues ( 77 pc ) came from Real Good Chicken + Yummies business

As the contribution of RGC + Yummies keeps increasing, their margins should keep improving and the volatility in margins should keep reducing

EBITDA margins in dairy business should improve from 5 pc in FY 25 to 6-7 pc in FY 26. The competition has taken 2 price hikes in the Dairy segment in last 3 months. Godrej Agrovet has also done the same. Additionally, the share of VAP in dairy business should go beyond 40 pc by end of FY 26. They have also taken price hikes in value added products

Company’s direct procurement of milk from farmers has now crossed 60 pc. They aim to cross 75 pc by end of FY 26. This helps them reduce costs in a significant manner

Going to launch another in-licensed agrochemical product for Corn. Relentless efforts are on for more in-licensing deals from Japanese and Chinese companies so as to keep expanding their product offerings. Should see multiple roll outs wef FY 27 ( upto 5 molecules with a mkt size of 60-70 cr per molecule )

Company has started to aggressively expand wrt their geographical presence + product offerings in their domestic agrochemical business. The same is evident from their sharp topline growth in Q4 and margin moderation ( due added costs involved in expansion )

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

IIFL finance -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes ( posting Q4 vs vs Q3 comparisons as RBI ban was lifted in Q3 and business is yet to ramp up completely )

Advances @ 78.3 vs 71.4k cr, up 10 pc QoQ
NII @ 1032 vs 947 cr, up 9 pc QoQ
Other income @ 355 vs 335 cr, up 6 pc QoQ ( includes income from Co lending and assigned assets )
Pre prov operating profits @ 651 vs 534 cr, up 22 pc QoQ
Provisions + Loan losses @ 348 vs 491 cr, down 29 pc
PAT @ 207 vs 41 cr, up 410 pc QoQ

Breakup of advances -

Loan Book @ 54.9 vs 49.7 k cr
Assigned assets @ 12.8 vs 12.4 k cr
Co Lending book @ 10.6 vs 9.2 k cr

Gross NPAs @ 2.2 pc, down 22 bps QoQ
Net NPAs @ 1.0 pc, up 4 bps QoQ

Total branches @ 4906

Cost of borrowing @ 9.2 pc
Avg spread @ 6.7 pc

Sectoral breakdown of advances -

Home loans @ 31.6k cr, up 4 pc QoQ
Gold loans @ 21.0k cr, up 40 pc QoQ
MSME loans @ 14.1k cr, up 2 pc QoQ
Micro Fin @ 9.8k cr, down 5 pc QoQ ( down 25 pc YoY )

IIFL Home finance -

Spreads @ 4.1 pc
Branches @ 376
Avg ticket Size @ 14.9 lakh
Avg yeild @ 12.5 pc

IIFL Samasta finance - MSME ( secured + unsecured ) + MicroFin -

Avg yeild @ 24.2 pc
Spreads @ 13.8 pc
Avg ticket size @ 54k
Branches @ 1660

IIFL standalone - Gold Loans + MSME Loans -

Avg yeild @ 19.5 pc
Avg spread @ 10.0 pc
Branches @ 2833
Avg ticket size @ 1.33 lakh

Company’s MSME - Unsecured loan book ( in the standalone entity ) - is growing rapidly. These r basically Mudra loans, having a tenure of 1-3 yrs, mostly for small shop keepers, mostly for working capital requirements, company has insurance coverage for these loans

Gold loan business should start to contribute to company’s growth and profitability going forward. MSME is relatively newer segment for the company. Company’s wide distribution should help them scale up the MSME business also ( in a big way )

Aiming to reach 3 pc kind of RoA for FY 26. Guiding for a 2.5 to 2.7 pc kind of credit cost for next FY

Should see better NIMs next FY due acceleration in Gold loan portfolio + lower borrowing rates

Gold loans are a good area to be operating in because of secured nature of lending + good yields

Will go slow on branch expansion in current H1 FY 26. Will only take a call on expansion wef H2 next FY

Some pain in MFI is still lingering. Hence the company will continue to be cautious on the MFI segment for next FY as well

Co-Lending + Assignment book should go back to 40 pc of total AUM by end of FY 26

Segment wise growth guidance for next FY -

Home loans - 15-18 pc
Gold loans - 25-30 pc
MSME - 25 -30 pc
MicroFin - 5-10 pc

Seeing minor pain in low end secured mortgage portfolio. Nothing close to what was seen in the Micro Fin business

The growth momentum in gold loan business should continue. Mkt conditions for Gold loan business are healthy at the moment

The yields for the company in gold loan business are inching up. Initially when the RBI’s ban was lifted, they were lending at lower yields to regain the lost mkt share. Now that is normalising. This should help the NIMs inch up even further

Credit costs in MFI should start to see a meaningful uptick wef Q2 FY 26

In the home loan portfolio, Micro LAP book stands @ 2400 cr

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[duvvurib]

Your detailed analysis on every company is simply wonderful. what are the different sources you refer to for this detailed analysis?

[ranvir]

Nothing beyond Concalls, ARs, management interviews

[ranvir]

Everyday Industries -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 299 vs 281 cr, up 6 pc
Gross margins @ 45.4 vs 44.7 pc
EBITDA - 25.7 vs 25.5 pc ( margins @ 8.6 vs 9.1 pc )
PAT - 10.5 vs 8 cr, up 31 pc

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 1344 vs 1314 cr, up 2 pc
Gross margins @ 45.4 vs 43.2 pc
EBITDA - 152 vs 140 cr, up 8 pc ( margins @ 11.3 vs 10.7 pc )
PAT - 82 vs 67 cr, up 23 pc

Greenfield capacity for alkaline batteries is expected to go live in H2 FY 26

Segmental performance -

Batteries - Batteries sales Q4 FY5 at 203.7 crore growing at 8.3% and FY25 at 877.7 crore growing at 2.9%, consolidating the recovery momentum. Alkaline continued its strong volume traction, delivering 46.3% sales growth in Q4 FY 25 and further expanding the market share to cross 14% mark, while continuing to hold overall market share in batteries. A focused pursuit of investments in brand and distribution is expected to foster further expansion

Flashlights - Total flashlights sales Q4 FY 25 at 28.0 crore (6.5% degrowth) and FY 25 at 172.7 crore

growing at 6.6%, is being driven by the increasing adoption of rechargeable SKUs, supported by

strong USP-backed innovations. Simultaneously, the volume decline in the battery-operated flashlight portfolio has been stabilized. The industry requirement for BIS certification, coupled with NPD focus from EIIL, will enhance the business’ competitive edge against unorganized players

Lighting - Total Lighting sales Q4 FY 25 at 68.7 crore growing at 2.1% and FY25 at 315.3 crore growing at 1.5%, faced with persistent market-wide price erosion in lighting. EIIL is strategically prioritizing volume growth in key segments led by alternate channels, encompassing institutional as well electrical outlets. Alongside a broader product range, the Company is expanding its retail network by adding new distributors to drive higher reach and presence

Advertising and Promotion costs @ 10 pc of sales for FY 25 ( quite aggressive - imo )

Company’s overall battery mkt share remains steady @ 53 pc ( including Zn-Carbon + Alkaline batteries )

Expect A&P spends to remain in a similar zone ie 10 pc of sales for next FY as well

Aim to hit 20 pc mkt share in the Alkaline battery segment by end of FY 26 ( if they achieve this, it would be great progress - imho )

The Jammu Greenfield plant will cost the company aprox 180 cr. They r expected to use 50 cr from internal accruals and rest via debt financing. This plant should help them achieve 10 pc cost reduction in the Battery segment

Total size of battery mkt in India is 3400 cr out of which the alkaline batteries contribute to around 400 cr and the rest is contributed by Carbon-Zinc batteries. In the alkaline mkt, Everready is @ 14 pc mkt share, other brands @ 4 pc mkt share and 82 pc mkt share is with Duracel. Everyday hopes to reach 50 pc mkt share in the alkaline segment in next 3-4 yrs

Alkaline batteries should be a high growth area in India over the next decade

Company does hold excess land / RE at various locations. They r pondering over selling some of it to reduce their debt levels. However, that can’t be done till their case / dispute with KKR financial holdings is resolved. The matter is SubJudice at Supreme Court

Once their Jammu plant comes online, it ll also open up a lot of B2B opportunities for the company ( iro alkaline batteries ) - both in domestic and export markets

For full FY 25, sales of Carbon-Zinc batteries stand @ 800 cr, Alkaline batteries @ 55 cr. Rest r rechargeable batteries

Continue to focus on growing their consumer Luminaries ( where the company is under Indexed )

Gross Debt @ 310 cr ( includes 100 cr drawn towards Jammu plant ). Finance cost @ 8.8 pc

EBITDA Margins in lighting segment @ break even levels in FY 25 vs (-) 3.5 pc in FY 25

Company’s lighting business currently operates via 250 distributors across India

Price erosion in Lighting business has not stopped but is certainly tapering off. Hopefully, it should end in near future

Aspire to reach a topline of 1800 cr by FY 27

EBITDA margins for batteries for full FY 25 stood @ 15 pc, for flashlights stood @ 8pc

Quick commerce is a great channel of company’s battery business ( because when u run out of battery, u generally need it ASAP )

If company gets an adverse order in the KKR matter where in they have to pay out money to them, they would look to sell some of their surplus land parcels to negate the hit

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Jyothy Labs -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 667 cr, up 1 pc ( volume growth @ 4 pc )
Gross margins @ 49.2 vs 49.5 pc
A&P spends @ 53 vs 59 cr ( @ 8pc of sales vs 9 pc LY )
EBITDA - 112 vs 108 cr ( margins @ 16.8 vs 16.4 pc )
PAT - 76 vs 78 cr

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 2847 cr, up 3 pc ( vol growth @ 6.4 pc )
Gross margins @ 50.1 vs 49.1 pc
A&P spends @ 239 vs 228 cr (@ 8.4 vs 8.3 pc of slaes)
EBITDA - 499 vs 479 cr ( margins @ 17.5 vs 17.4 pc )
PAT - 370 vs 369 cr

Cash on books @ 757 cr

Ujala detergent maintained 24.5 pc mkt share in Kerala

Improving the visibility of MoreLight and Mr White in modern retail and high foot fall general trade specially in South India

Rolled out tactical promotions and consumer offers for Henko Matic liquids in Metros and key urban centers

Exo bar maintained 14 pc mkt share in dish washing bars

Pril Liquid’s mkt share @ 13.1 pc

Launched Margo liquid handwash

Maxo LV mkt share @ 7.3 pc. Maxo coils mkt share @ 24.6 pc

Liquid detergents portfolio grew by 3X in FY 25

Increased direct reach by 1 lakh outlets in FY 25. Total reach now @ 3.6 million outlets

New launches in FY 25 include - Jovia soap, Maxo mosquito rackets , Ujala Young and Fresh, More Light liquid detergent and Maxo mosquito aerosol

Urban demand continues to be weak. Rural demand recovery is not sufficient to cover up for the Urban weakness

Jovia is seeing descent consumer acceptance. Weakness in Margo continues. Company hopes to turn around Margo’s performance in FY 26

HI category de grew 6.5 pc in FY 25. However Liquid vaporisers did grow in double digits. Coils continues to be a declining category. Have launched Aerosols + Rackets to broaden the company’s offerings in the anti-mosquito space

Likely to spend 8-9 pc of revenues on A&P spends in FY 26 as well

Not too hopeful of a strong demand recovery in H1 FY 26

Company has started taking price hikes ( as they speak ) and are likely to take a few more price hikes going forward. These price hikes should start reflecting in better topline and EBITDA in H2

Going to launch new products in current FY as well ( across all categories )

Working on Incense stick ( I personally think, they ll launch Incense sticks in HI category in not so distant future )

The shift from powder to liquid detergents is much faster in Southern India vs other parts of India

Company is doing quite well in the liquid detergents in Southern states ( which are also high growth states for liquid detergents )

Expect gross margins to remain in similar band as last 4-5 Qtrs

In H2, EBITDA margins should be between 16-17 pc. In H1, there may be some pressure on EBITDA margins

Company’s new brand - ‘Ujala Young and Fresh’ is seeing very encouraging customer response

Guiding for mid to high single digit volume growth in FY 26 ( mid single digits in H1, low double digits in H2 )

Except for crude derivatives, the other RM prices are trending up. Net-Net, the RM prices are increasing despite lower crude prices

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Wonderla Holidays -

Q4 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 97 vs 99 cr
EBITDA - 30 vs 40 cr, down 24 pc ( margins @ 29 vs 39 pc YoY )
PAT - 11 vs 22 cr, down 51 pc
Footfalls - 6.8 vs 7.1 lakh
ARPU @ Rs 1371 vs Rs 1350

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 459 vs 483 cr
EBITDA - 171 vs 250 cr, down 31 pc ( margins @ 36 vs 49 pc )
PAT - 109 vs 158 cr, down 31 pc

Park wise performance for full FY 25 -

Bengaluru -

Revenues - 167 vs 196 cr, down 15 pc
Footfalls - 10.7 vs 12.7 lakh

Kochi -

Revenues - 121 vs 135 cr, down 10 pc
Footfalls - 8.7 vs 10.3 lakh

Hyderabad -

Revenues - 135 vs 134 cr
Footfalls - 9.3 vs 9.5 lakh

Bhuvneshwar ( opened in FY 25 ) -

Revenues - 20 cr
Footfalls - 1.7 lakh

Wonderla Resort Bengaluru -

Revenues - 17 vs 18 cr
ARR - 5.8 vs 5.7 k
Occupancy - 49 vs 55 pc

Expect their Chennai park to open in Q3 FY 26 ( one of their largest park )

Their new resort - ‘Isle by Wonderla’ should open in Q1 FY 26

Don’t expect anything beyond mild growth from their older parks. Most of the growth going forward is expected to be driven by newer parks ie Bhuvneshwar and Chennai

Pressure on discretionary spends is a market wide phenomenon. Don’t think this slowdown is company specific

Expecting 5-7 pc growth in footfalls ( conservative estimate ) + 3-5 growth in ARPUs in FY 26. This guidance includes Chennai park’s opening in Q3

Footfall growth in FY 27 should be much better due first full year of operations @ Chennai

Have spent 40 cr towards marketing and advertisement spends in FY 26 vs 28 cr in FY 25. This was due to expenses related to launch of new park at Bhuvneshwar. Marketing spends should remain elevated in FY 26 because of launch of Chennai park

The new resort that’s opening in Q1 is an extension of their existing resort at Bengaluru. Its a more premium offering

For a smaller park like Bhuvneshwar, company expects a footfall of 5 lakh / yr - once the park matures in 3 - 4 yrs. For next FY, they r expecting a footfall of 2.5-3 lakh

Total expenses for Chennai park are expected to be around 540 cr. Company intends to spend 390 cr of QIP money for the Chennai park

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Surya Roshni -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 2146 vs 2080 cr, up 3 pc
EBITDA - 211 vs 173 cr, up 22 pc ( margins @ 9.85 vs 8.35 pc )
PAT - 130 vs 104 cr, up 25 pc

In steel pipes division, EBITDA / ton improved by 14 pc YoY

Revenues in lighting and consumer durables segment improved by 10 pc. Absolute EBITDA in this segment rose by 6 pc. This division continued to maintain strong double digit margins @ 10.3 pc

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 7436 vs 7809 cr, down 5 pc
EBITDA - 609 vs 586 cr, up 4 pc
PAT - 347 vs 329 cr, up 5 pc

Full year revenue decline is because of decline in HR steel prices

Segmental performance for full FY -

Lighting and consumer durables -

Revenues - 1690 vs 1572 cr, up 8 pc
EBITDA - 162 vs 150 cr ( margins @ 9.61 vs 9.57 pc )
PBT - 125 vs 120 cr

Revenues in this segment increased despite continued price erosions in the lighting segment

Professional lighting grew in strong double digits, Street lighting revenues surged by 2.5X

Consumer lighting witnessed healthy volume growth. Price erosion continued

Company is going to enter house wiring segment in near future. Aim to clock 100 cr of revenues in first yr of operations

Steel Pipes and Strips -

Revenues - 5749 vs 6242 cr, down 8pc ( due fall in HR steel prices ). Volume growth @ 9 pc
EBITDA - 446 vs 436 cr
EBITDA / MT @ Rs 5392 vs Rs 5401
PBT - 341 vs 325 cr

In Q4, EBITDA/MT surged to Rs 6708 vs Rs 5877 cr YoY

Share of VAP in this division now stands @ 43 pc

Company’s Steel pipe facilities are located at - Anjar ( Gujarat ), Hindupur ( AP ), Bahadurgarh ( Haryana )

Their lighting manufacturing plants are located at - Gwalior ( MP ), Kashipur ( Uttarakhand )

Company is now debt free

Cash on books @ 342 cr

Company is No 1 ERW pipe manufacturer in India, No 1 exporter of ERW pipes from India

Expect to ramp up the sales of their wires segment to 500 cr in next 3 yrs

Increased share of VAP in steel pipes division is helping the company expand their overall EBITDA / MT

Capex planned for next 3 yrs @ 500 cr

Hoping to clock EBITDA / MT @ Rs 5800-6000 for FY 26

Volumes and EBITDA / MT wise breakdown of Steel pipes division -

GI Pipes - Rs 6465 @ 26 pc of sales by volume
API and Spiral pipes - Rs 9300 @ 17 pc of sales by volume
Black pipes - Rs 4488 @ 30 pc of sales by volume
Section pipes - Rs 1872 @ 15 pc of sales by volume
CR strips - Rs 1156 @ 12 pc of sales by volume

Guiding for a volume of 11 lakh MT for FY 26 ( they sold 8.8 lakh MT in FY 25 ). As volumes ramp up, EBITDA / MT should start to ramp up. Aiming to expand their capacity to 19 lakh MT in next 3 yrs

Out of this capex of 500 cr that the company has lined up, 400 cr shall be spent towards value added products. Eventually, they aim to derive 60 pc of their revenues from VAP segment vs 45 pc currently

Company exports to 50 + countries across the globe including - US, ME, Australia, Mexico, Africa, EU

Anti dumping duty on company’s exports to US have reduced from 19 pc to 2.5 pc ( recently ). US being a big mkt should help them achieve their aggressive volume guidance of 11 lakh MT for FY 26

Capex for FY 26 should be around 150 cr

Company’s FMEG distribution reach should help them achieve their targets that they have set for their Wires segment

Company expects the lighting industry to stabilise ( wrt price erosion ) in near future. Aim to grow the Lighting and CD division by 10 pc in FY 26 with a 20 pc kind of EBITDA growth

Already seeing good pickup in volumes in their steel pipes division in Q1

Exceptionally high EBITDA / MT in Q4 is due to inventory gains to the tune of 30 cr

Should be able to do an EBITDA of aprox 800 cr ( including both divisions ) for FY 26 vs FY 25’s EBITDA of 609 cr !!!

The wires manufacturing will be done by company in-house. They are not planning to outsource any manufacturing

A demerger of company’s two business segments is under active consideration. Should materialise in not so distant future. Should unlock a lot of value of its shareholders

Gross margins in Steel pipes divion @ 21 pc, Lighting and CD division @ 38 pc

Once the company’s capacity increases from 12 to 19 lakh Mts in steel pipes division, additional revenue potential should be around 3500-4000 cr

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy / sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical -

Q4 and FY 25 results and Concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 2061 vs 1961 cr, up 5 pc
Gross margins @ 33.9 vs 31.9 pc
EBITDA - 264 vs 204 cr, up 30 pc ( margins @ 12.8 vs 10.4 pc )
PAT - 172 vs 133 cr

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 7864 vs 7313 cr
Gross margins @ 32.9 vs 31.6 pc
EBITDA - 888 vs 714 cr, up 24 pc ( margins @ 11.3 vs 9.8 pc )
PAT - 564 vs 442, up 27 pc

Segmental performance for FY 25 -

ECD ( electrical consumer durables ) -

Revenues - 6010 vs 5392 cr
EBIT - 928 vs 775 cr

Fans sustained mid single digit growth amid weak consumer sentiment

Pumps segment witnessed robust growth led by Solar Pumps

Appliances grew in mid teens and Appliance segment revenue crossed 1000 cr for the first time

Air coolers grew @ 50 pc +, mixer grinders grew @ 30 pc +

Built in Kitchen appliances clocked revenues of 60 cr, reducing their EBITDA losses

Lighting -

Revenues - 1018 vs 996 cr, up 2 pc
EBIT - 120 vs 105 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 11.8 vs 10.6 pc ). EBIT margins in Q4 climbed to 15.9 pc - sharp margin recovery

Industry wide price erosion ( in double digits ) continues

Ceiling lights, Batons continued to perform well

Butterfly -

Revenues - 865 vs 931 cr ( in Q4, revenues were @ 187 vs 166 cr )
EBIT - 42 vs 9 cr { in Q4, EBIT was 11 vs (-) 24 cr }

Exploring setting up a Greenfield facility with an investment of 350 cr. Should be able to finalise in next few weeks. Initially, this facility will be dedicated to manufacturing of fans. May add more products at a later stage

Company has decided to enter roof-top solar energy business. Its a large category with a current mkt size of 20k cr

Their solar pumps are now clocking 200 cr of annual sales

Likely to enter a few more categories in FMEG space in near future. Will announce, once finalised

Butterfly is seeing a sharp turnaround in both topline and bottomline despite tepid consumer demand

Gross Margin expansion for FY 25 are led by lower RM prices

In the Solar Rooftops business, brand name does play an important role. Plus the addressable mkt is huge. Confident of a quick ramp up going forward

Revenue growth in large appliance business has not been encouraging. Company strongly believes, their products are genuinely better and differentiated. They just need better execution, demand generation, marketing etc

Onset of summers in Q1 has been delayed. Build up of sales momentum may be back ended this FY

Momentum in the Solar pumps segment is likely to continue in FY 26

Company believes - even when the PM Kusum scheme ends, the solar pumps business should continue as a going concern with increased demand because it’s so beneficial for the farmer. PM Kusum is just the initial push ( which is often required ) just like Fame 1, Fame 2 subsidies in the EV business

Intend to take Butterfly pan India. However, that is a long term plan. At present, they are concentrating on strengthening its core ie its hold in South India

Shift of product mix away from LED Bulbs towards Ceiling lights + Ceiling panels is helping them see a sharp margin recovery. Hopeful of being able to sustain the Q4 margins going forward as well

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

JB Chemicals -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 949 vs 862 cr
Gross margins @ 66.1 vs 65.2 pc
EBITDA - 226 vs 198 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 23.8 vs 22.9 pc )
PAT - 146 vs 126 cr, up 15 pc

Gross margins expanded despite good performance of In-Licensed Opthal portfolio which has limited margins

Domestic formulations ( grew by 11 pc ) and CDMO portfolio continue to grow strongly. In Q4, even the Russian and RoW business witnessed good recovery

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 3918 vs 3484 cr, up 12 pc
Gross margins @ 66.4 vs 66.1 pc
EBITDA - 1032 vs 897 cr, up 15 pc ( margins @ 26.3 vs 25.7 pc )
PAT - 660 vs 553 cr, up 19 pc

In FY 25, domestic sales increased 20 pc !!! Excluding Opthal portfolio, domestic sales grew by 13 pc

International business grew by 4 pc ( led by double digit growth in branded generics exports to RoW and Russian business )

CDMO business grew strongly in H2

India business + CMO businesses have the highest gross margins. Together, they contribute to 70 pc of company’s sales at present. In next 2-3 yrs, company aims to ramp up these two businesses to 80 pc of company’s total business

Not planning to meaningfully add MRs in next 12-18 months. Current strength of MRs is enough to carry forward company’s growth in near term. Current filed force @ 2800 MRs. Monthly field force productivity @ 8 lakh

Company is extremely bullish wrt their CMO business for next 1-2 yrs. Expecting 3-4 new projects to start kicking off wef next FY. Company will even have to incur capex in order to service these projects (although the quantum of capex is not heavy )

Net Cash @ 689 cr vs 107 cr YoY

Segmental performance -

Domestic business -

Revenues - 2269 vs 1897 cr, up 20 pc. Volumes grew by 13 pc including Othal portfolio and 6 pc excluding Opthal portfolio

Chronic business recorded an 18 pc YoY growth

Brand wise annual sales for FY 25 -

Cilacar + Variants - 785 cr
Razel - 99 cr
Metrogyl + Variants - 342 cr
Sporolac - 134 cr
Nicardia - 205 cr
Rantac + Variants - 427 cr
Azmarda - 70 cr

International business -

Revenues @ 1649 cr, up 4 pc

Breakup -

International formulations - 1128 cr, up 6 pc ( led by Russia, RoW. US business was a drag )
CDMO - 446 cr, up 3 pc ( due weakness in H1 ). Have won a few global contracts which are likely to be commercialised in next 12-18 months

APIs - 76 cr, down 12 pc

Chronic : Acute sales in domestic business @ 47:53

Company now cover 3.5 lakh doctors across specialities in India

At present, company has 25 brands with revenues > 20 cr in India

Company has raised its EBITDA margin guidance to 27-29 pc for FY 26 !!! ( ex of ESOPs )

Cilacar, Razel, Nicardia, Azmarda, Sporolac - are all high growth brands - augurs very well for the company

Company expects its International formulation business to grow @ around 10 pc in FY 26 and in low teens wef FY 27

CDMO / CMO ( Lozenges ) business grew by 18 pc in Q4. Going to enter CMO of ORS, throat sprays by end of FY 26. Once all the new products ramp up ( say in 2 yrs ), CDMO business should be able to clock annual sales of 600 cr vs 450 cr presently

Aim to ramp up Azmarda’s sales to > 100 cr in next 2 yrs

65 pc of India business sales come from top 5-6 brands. Most of these r in high growth areas

Acute therapies have performed @ suboptimal levels in the IPM for last 2 yrs. If the season is favourable and acute therapies pick up, IPM’s volume growth is expected to pick up from 1-2 pc to 4-5 pc

In Dec 27, the company shall become the full fledged custodians of the in-licensed Opthal portfolio that it had acquired. After that, the GMs and Operating margins of this portfolio shall bump up significantly

Compay is open to buying out brands / companies I the range of 1-1.5X their current EBITDA ( that works out to be 1000-1500 cr ). However, the acquisition has to be a strategic fit + should be present in high growth areas

Their Opthal business is currently clocking sales of 180 cr / yr. Should keep growing in mid-teens in for next 2-3 yrs

Wef FY 28, the gross margins in their Opthal business shall jump from 20 pc ( currently ) to > 60 pc. This should lead to a massive EBITDA expansion wrt the Opthal portfolio

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Dhanuka Agritech -

Q4 and FY 25 results and Concall highlights -

Company’s Infra - 4 manufacturing facilities, 6500 distributors, 80k retailers, 01 R&D center, International collaborations with 10 leading global agrochemical companies across EU,US, Japan

Aim to launch - margin accretive 8 X 9(3) products in next 2 yrs

Received excellent response in Q3 for 2 of its newly launched products - Lanevo and Myco Super. Have introduced another 9(4) product - Roxa in Q3 - a wheat crop herbicide. Lanevo is an insecticide for horticulture crops, Myco Super is a biologic formulation for improvement of soil health used across multiple crops. Another in-licensed product - Purge ( herbicide for ground nut crops ) is doing really well and exceeding company’s expectations. Purge and Lanevo in in-licensed from Nissan ( Japan )

Zanet ( another in-licensed product launched LY - fungicide used on Potato, Tomato crops ) is also doing very well - as reported in Q2 concall

All 4 products - Zanet, Lanevo, Myco Super and Purge are exclusively with Dhanuka. The same is likely to continue for medium term

The patented products ( that the company in-licesnces ) from Innovators - contribute to > 600 cr of company’s topline at present ( out of an annual topline of aprox 2030 cr )

Company makes 10-15 pc extra gross margins on these exclusive - inlicensed products. Generally, company starts with 3-5 yrs exclusivity agreements with the innovators. The same is extendable after that

Have acquired international rights to manufacture 02 AIs - Iprovalicrab and Triademenol ( invented by Bayer AG ). Plan to export it to 20+ countries - including LatAm, EU, ME, Africa

The 02 Bayer’s products - that company is going to make are generic in nature. Have paid 160 cr in order to acquire these 2 products ( includes product registrations and marketing rights across 20 + countries ). These 2 products should have a peak revenue potential of 250 cr / yr for the company ( likely to be achieved over next 3-4 yrs ). Should achieve 175 cr sales in FY 27 for these 2 molecules

Both the acquired Bayer molecules should generate current company level EBITDA margins. Company expects to shift manufacturing of one of the molecules in India in the near term. Will keep sourcing the second molecule from 3rd party sources for the time being

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 442 vs 368 cr, up 20 pc
Gross Margins @ 43.25 vs 43.62 pc
EBITDA - 110 vs 80 cr, up 37 pc ( margins @ 24.8 vs 21.7 pc )
PAT - 76 vs 59 cr, up 28 pc ( due higher depreciation, lower other income )

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 2035 vs 1758 cr
Gross Margins @ 40.10 vs 39.03 pc
EBITDA - 361 vs 286 cr, up 26 pc ( margins @ 17.75 vs 16.31 pc )
PAT - 296 vs 239 cr, up 24 pc

Dahej plant is expected to commence commercial production of an additional molecule. Revenues from this molecule may start flowing in wef Q2 FY 26

Dividend declared @ Rs 2 / share. This is in addition to buyback of 5 lakh shares that the company did earlier this yr in which they ended up spending 100 cr

Product wise breakup of sales for FY 25 -

Insecticides - 38 pc
Fungicides - 13 pc
Herbicides - 32 pc
Others ( like PGRs, Soil health improvement solutions etc ) - 17 pc

Dahej clocked a revenue of 40 cr in FY 25. Expect to clock a revenue of 60 cr in FY 26. In FY 25, Dahej facility clocked an EBITDA of (-) 14 cr. Expect similar EBITDA numbers in FY 26 as well

Monsoon forecasts are good for this yr ( @ 105 pc of LTA ), ensuring good sowing sentiments

B2B sales ( including the sales from Dahej plant ) @ 9 pc of total sales. Rest 91 pc are B2C sales. In FY 24, B2B sales were @ 4 pc

Guiding for a high double digit sales growth for FY 26 with similar EBITDA margins as FY 25

New product to be made at Dahej wef FY 26 is a Fungicide. Dahej capacity utilisation in FY 25 @ 25 pc. In FY 26, this should ramp up to 35 pc. For company to generate positive EBITDA, capacity utilisation has to cross 70 pc ( should take some more time - obviously )

As the sales contribution from high value in-Licensed products keeps increasing, the company should be in a position to maintain its EBITDA margins despite cost pressures from high RM prices

Aim to continue to indulge in healthy dividend and buyback payouts

Volume growth for FY 25 was @ 18 pc, Price growth was @ (-) 3 pc

They are continuously on the look out for inorganic growth opportunities - like acquiring products, entering into more agreements ( like the one they got into with Bayer in FY 25 for 2 of its molecules )

Company is optimistic about the export markets from a long term perspective. Dahej facility should play an important role for the company as they ll be manufacturing most of their generic and speciality / differentiated AIs from this facility ( for export markets )

Paddy, Soyabeans, Sugarcane, OilSeeds, Maize, Chilli, Horticulture, Grapes - are key focus crops for the company

Should be able to clock 100-110 cr kind of revenues from the 2 molecules that they have acquired from Bayer. In addition, they r expected to receive a royalty of about 15 cr from Bayer in FY 26. Expect revenues from these molecules to ramp up to 170-180 cr by FY 27

Should be able to clock double digit revenue growth in Q1

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[Shankar]

One aspect I feel is that Indian stocks are expensive as there is not much avenue for the investors to put in their money. LRS has put a restriction. The process is not simple. Also it is costlier to hold stocks abroad.

Dont you think at some point in time as the above restrictions go away, there would be drop in multiples to indian equities

[ranvir]

While I don’t disagree with u, I ll just state 2 counter views -

1. India is one of the rare big growth economy with Nominal GDP growth rates of say 10-12 pc. Its hard to find countries with such growth dynamics + depth and breadth of mkts

2. The fiscal and demographic situation of the entire West is precarious. How long will their currencies remain expensive despite increasing fiscal strains and poor growth dynamics is anyone’s guess. In a depreciating currency scenario for the developed world, they can be potential long term tail winds for FDI and FII investments into India

[gsapte]

Your concerns seems to be inline with my thoughts.

Currently there are some countries which are able to grow above 7% though those are smaller nations like Tajikistan, Guyana, Rwanda, Georgia and few more. It is also true that they do not have stable share market with depth like us, but they also have the potential to grow faster.

One of the reasons why I believe that, our growth could reach a point of stagnation is the - the current growth is Job less growth and share market and certain investments by GOI and Private players is driving this growth. If you can not create large number of jobs, eventually people will not have sufficient funds to invest in share market through SIP. Mutual Funds will largely depend on Existing Salaried professionals only. That means, Existing Salaried Investors have to keep increasing their SIP amounts by 10% plus every year to sustain the current SIP growth momentum.

Also, there is a possibility that, AI investments in our nation may move up over next few years which might add value but may also result into small % of Job reductions, and salary cuts.

I personally believe that, Job less growth can drive Economy or share market growth to a certain point but how it will guarantee 12% plus growth for next 20-30 years ? I am unable to find answers to some of these questions (may be due to my limited knowledge of the economy!!).

I will remain conservatively optimistic about market valuations, though largely it will move up but I will keep a watch on Real inflation adjusted returns. NIFTY 50 EPS growth is slowing down as evident from Q4 FY25 and Currently market is driven more by narratives rather than Real EPS growth. Only Defense sector and few are contributing to Real EPS growth and overall contribution by other sectors seems to be slowed down significantly.

This is my personal opinion and I could be completely wrong in my analysis.

[ranvir]

Heritage Foods -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 1048 vs 950 cr, up 10 pc
EBITDA - 80 vs 70 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 7.6 vs 7.4 pc )
PAT - 38 vs 40 cr

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 4134 vs 3793 cr, up 9 pc
EBITDA - 331 vs 209 cr, up 58 pc ( margins @ 8 vs 5.5 pc )
PAT - 188 vs 106 cr, up 77 pc

Company’s Infrastructure -

Milk processing capacity @ 2.83 MLPD
Milk chilling capacity @ 2.5 MLPD
18 Milk processing plants
Daily milk procurement from over 3 Lakh farmers. Daily avg procurement @ 1.7 Million Lit per day
195 Chilling centers
7200 + distributors
Own 2000 + vehicles for distribution
1.8 lakh retail outlets
859 Heritage Parlours ( owned )
352 Happiness Points ( owned )
Selling online - on 16 E-Comm websites, 25 Modern retail chains
Serve > 1 cr consumers on a daily basis
Milk procurement from - 9 states Milk sales into - 17 states

Last 3 Yrs Milk procurement growing @ 10 pc CAGR Last 3 Yrs Milk sales CAGR @ 5 pc
Last 3 Yrs VAP sales CAGR @ 24 pc

Company has been spending very aggressively on marketing and sales promotion. So when the consumption patterns in the economy improve, Heritage should benefit disproportionately

In Q1, the share of VAP are highest vs other Qtrs ( specially Lassi, Buttermilk, Ice Creams ). Cheese, Butter, DoodhPeda are not so seasonal. Q3 is very heavy wrt Butter and Ghee sales

Adding 35-40 Heritage happiness points / Qtr

FY 25 vs FY 22 product mix -

Milk - 57 vs 66 pc
VAP - 32 vs 26 pc
Fat - 8 vs 5 pc
Others - 3 vs 3 pc

Company aims to take the share of VAP to 40 pc by FY 28. Urbanisation, shift from unorganised to organised sector, higher disposable incomes are driving VAP sales

Breakdown of last 3 yr’s CAGR of VAP sales -

Foods @ 21 pc CAGR
Drinkables @ 38 pc CAGR
Sweets @ 23 pc CAGR
IceCreams @ 44 pc CAGR

Fat sales have grown by @ 31 pc CAGR over last 3 yrs

Organised mkt shares for IceCreams @ 40 pc, Curd @ 14 pc, Paneer @ 4 pc, Ghee @ 19 pc - are all quite low and offer huge growth opportunities

Q4 FY 25 highlights -

Procurement volumes peaked to 1.76 MLPD and procurement prices increased to Rs 42.9/L (3.1% higher), however FY25, average prices declined 3.7% YoY to INR 41.7/litre, driven by improved sourcing efficiencies and favourable flush season availability

Milk Sales volumes peaked to 1.16 MLPD up 4.5% YoY, The average selling price increased to ₹55.6/litre from ₹54.8/litre last year, reflecting stable market positioning and pricing strength

Value-Added Products (VAP) segment, achieving a 19.3% increase in revenues, reaching Rs. 3,362 million. The contribution of VAP to total revenue rose to 32.5%, up from 30.1% in Q4 FY24

When including consumer packs of Ghee and Butter, VAP revenue reached Rs. 4,198 million, up 19% YoY. This segment now contributes 40.6% to total revenue in Q4 FY25, compared to 37.7% in Q4 FY24

Q4’s PAT was adversely affected by an exceptional charge of 8 cr towards impairment in value of plant, property, machinery of company’s fully owned subsidiary - Heritage Novandie Foods Private ltd ( it was earlier a JV ). This plant near Mumbai makes Curd and other VAPs

Company’s renewable energy capacity now stands @ 12 MW

Company took a price hike for its Milk portfolio in Mar 25 ( @ Rs 1.6/lit ). Most of the Industry players took a price hike after Heritage ( in Apr / May ). Company is currently comfortable with the pricing. May still take up some hikes in VAPs

Employee costs have increased @ 14 pc vs Revenue growth of 10 pc for FY 25. Company aims to reverse this by accelerating the revenue growth and moderating the employee salary hikes in FY 26

The hike in milk procurement prices that have happened in Q4 are absolutely normal ( and not alarming at all + they have happened after a long gap of 18 months ). Heritage took price hike in Mar. The full effect of price hike ( the benefits ie ) will be visible in Q1

Heritage Novandie should be able to turnaround its operations in 2-3 Qtrs. They will update about the same in upcoming concalls

As more premium variety of milk + VAP sales increase, the EBITDA margins should keep inching upwards ( over long term )

**Two major risks that any dairy business faces are - Weather risks ( too much rain, weak summers etc ) and Volatility in raw milk prices **

As company keeps working towards improving efficiencies in all facets of its operations + the sales of VAPs keep increasing, the sensitivity of EBITDA margins to fluctuations in raw milk prices should keep reducing

Disc: holding, biased, not a buy / sell recommendation, not SEBI registered, posted for information purposes only

[ranvir]

Zydus Wellness -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 910 vs 778 cr, up 17 pc ( driven by a volume growth of 17 pc )
Gross Margins @ 54.8 vs 54.4 pc
EBITDA - 190 vs 162 cr, up 17 pc ( margins @ 20.8 vs 20.7 pc )
PAT - 171 vs 150 cr, up 14.4 pc

Foods and Nutrition ( Complan + SugarFree + GluconD + ImLite + Nutralite + RiteBite + MaxProtien ) - grew by 15.4 pc

Personal Care ( Everyouth + Nycil ) - grew by 22.5 pc

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 2691 vs 2315 cr, up 16 pc ( volume growth @ 12.4 pc )
Gross Margins @ 52.5 vs 50.8 pc
EBITDA - 380 vs 308 cr, up 23.2 pc ( margins @ 14 vs 13.2 pc )
PAT - 341 vs 262 cr, up 30 pc

Foods and nutrition grew by 12.4 pc

Personal care grew by 33.4 pc

Brand wise commentary -

Nycil - Mkt share @ 35.4 in Mar 25 vs 32.7 pc in Mar 21

Everyouth - continues to grow in double digits for last 5 yrs. Mkt share in Scrubs improved 420 bps in last 2 yrs, in Peel Offs improved by 163 bps in last 2 yrs. Launched sheet masks in FY 25 under the EverYouth brand. Current Mkt share -
Everyouth Scrubs - 48.5 pc
Everyouth Peel Offs - 77.7 pc
Everyouth Facewash - 7.7 pc

SugarFree - mkt share @ 95.9 pc. Sugar free green continues to grow in double digits in last 4 yrs. Company upgraded SugarFree Gold to Gold+ with changed formulation of - Sucralose + Chromium. Also launched SugarFree D’Lite cookies in domestic mkts

Glucon D - current mkt share @ 58.8 pc

Complan - has gained 56 bps of mkt share in last 3 yrs. Current mkt share @ 4 pc

Nutralite - growing in double digits in last 5 yrs led by a continuously expanding product basket

Organised trade now contributes to 21 pc of company sales vs 15 pc in Mar 21

Have recommended a stock split of 1:5, dividend of Rs 6 / share

Organic business ( ie Ex - RiteBite + MaxProtien ) grew in low double digits in Q4 - led by high single digit volume growth

Company aspires to move their annualised EBITDA margins into 16-18 pc band over next 3-4 yrs

Quick commerce is helping them reach new consumers with more premium products. Nutralite spreads and Complan are doing quite well in the Quick Commerce channel

RiteBite has been with Zydus for 4 months now. Have grown 50 pc YoY. Margins are in low single digits. Hop to build on these as operating leverage kicks in with scale

In Q4, onset of summer in South India was late. Despite that, company was able to grow in double digits. Western Parts of India have also seen delayed onset of summer wef late Q4, early Q1. Company is again aiming to clock double digit growth in Q1

Company paid 3X the sales of FY 24 while acquiring Naturell Pvt ltd ( owner of RiteBite and Max Protein bars). Company paid Rs 390 cr for the said acquisition. That means, these two brands clocked 130 cr of sales in FY 24

Have launched GluconD Activors in FY 25. Its a tetra pack based electrolyte drink

ImLite was launched in FY 23. Doing well. Company hopes that 20 pc of their sweeteners sale should eventually start coming from ImLite ( over medium to long term )

Company is spending 13 pc of sales on advertising and sales promotions !!! If they reduce this ( theoretically, say after 2-3 yrs ), it can lead to significant bump up in the EBITDA margins

5-7 yrs back, Nutralite was only a fat spreads brand. Over the years, company has also launched Mayonnaise, Chocolate spreads, Ghee and Butter under the Nutralite brand

Company’s tax liability is going to remain low ( in similar band as in FY 25 ) till FY 27

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation

[ranvir]

Electronics Mart -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 1719 vs 1524 cr, up 13 pc
Gross margins @ 14.6 vs 14.4 pc
EBITDA - 114 vs 107 cr ( margins @ 6.6 vs 7.1 pc ). EBITDA margin contraction due to much higher employee and other expenses ( like on brand building etc as they opened 12 stores in Q4 )
PAT - 31 vs 40 cr ( due much higher depreciation and interest costs )

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 6964 vs 6285 cr, up 11 pc
Gross margins @ 14.3 vs 14.6 pc
EBITDA - 450 vs 449 cr ( margins @ 6.5 vs 7.2 pc ). Margins contracted due increased manpower and other expenses ( on account of aggressive store openings ). Company opened 40 new stores in FY 25
PAT - 160 vs 183 cr

Soft consumer demand existed in consumer durables category, especially in Southern parts of India

Slowdown in RE sector in Hyderabad is also dampening the spending impulses there. However, company is seeing a turnaround wef Feb/Mar in consumer sentiment

Current breakdown of stores -

NCR - 29 stores ( 28 MBOs, 1 EBO )
Telangana - 113 stores ( 104 MBOs, 9 EBO )
AP - 57 stores ( 56 MBO, 1 EBO )
Kerala - 1 store ( its a MBO )

Total - 200 stores ( 40 stores added in FY 25 ). In Mar 21, company operated a total of 93 stores. Have been on an expansion spree for last 4 yrs

Out of these - 17 stores are owned, 171 are leased, 12 are partially owned partially leased

FY 25 revenue split -

Mobiles - 42 pc @ 2736 cr
Large appliances - 45 pc @ 2952 cr
Small appliances, IT and others - 12 pc @ 810 cr

Contribution of top 5 brands in sales contribution @ 61 pc

Avg ticket size @ 23.8 k

Sales per store @ 32.1 vs 36.2 cr YoY ( due aggressive new store opening )

Cluster wise revenues -

Hyderabad - 3944 vs 3888 cr, up 1 pc. SSSG flat
Telangana - 952 vs 807 cr , up 18 pc. SSSG @ 9 pc
AP - 1066 vs 814 cr, up 31 pc. SSSG @ 21 pc
NCR - 461 vs 278 cr, up 66 pc. SSSG @ 50 pc

Region wise store additions in FY 25 -

Telangana - 18
AP - 18
NCR - 8

Total - 44. Company closed 4 stores during the year. Net store addition was 40

Aim to open 25 - 30 new stores in FY 26

Cluster wise Avg sales / store -

NCR @ 15.9 cr
AP @ 18.7 cr,
Telangana @ 18.3 cr
HYD @ 55 cr

Early monsoons is resulting in some slowdown in the sales of cooling products. Company is hoping for an extended summer season ( like we saw extended winters early this yr )

Company believes they are doing well as far as their performance in Delhi NCR ( going by sales per store wrt the age of stores ). Likely to open another 6-8 stores in the NCR in FY 26 as well. NCR stores should start to contribute meaningfully to EBITDA from here on

Capex for FY 25 @ 350 cr. A lot of this money ( aprox 200 cr ) was spent on buying out properties ( wrt the new store openings, specially in NCR ). For operating in prime areas, company indulges in property buyouts. Otherwise they operate on lease model in most cases

Company expects NCR cluster to clock 3.5 pc kind of EBITDA margins ( vs 0.02 pc in FY 25 ) for FY 26

While reporting SSSG, company uses like to like comparison. The stores that have opened in FY 25 have been excluded from SSSG calculations

Out of a total of 200 stores, 99 stores r in the mature category ie were opened > 3 yrs back. Rest 101 stores were opened in last 3 yrs and are yet to mature

Category wise value growth for FY 25 -

Mobiles - 10 pc
AC - 34
TV - 5
Fridge- 4
Washing Machines - 4 pc
Kitchen Appliances - 11 pc

As more and more electronics manufacturing is now happening in India, the prices of most electronic goods are seeing a declining trend. Hence the volume growth across categories are > Value growth

Disc: holding, added more recently, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted for educational purposes

[ranvir]

Aditya Vision -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 487 vs 376 cr, up 30 pc
Gross margins @ 17 vs 17.5 pc
EBITDA - 42 vs 38 cr, up 12.4 pc ( margins @ 8.7 vs 10 pc ) - due sharp increase in other expenses as they opened 14 stores in Q4
PAT - 16 vs 8 cr, up 100 pc ( due steep fall in interest costs, lower effective tax rate )

FY 25 outcomes -

Revenues - 2260 vs 1743 cr
Gross margins @ 15.7 vs 15.9 pc
EBITDA - 204 vs 167 cr, up 22 pc ( margins @ 9 vs 9.6 pc )
PAT - 105 vs 77 cr, up 37 pc (due fall in interest costs)

Total store count @ 175 in Mar 25 vs 145 in Mar 24. Opened 30 stores in FY 25

SSSG @ 15 pc

Avg selling price @ 21.9 k vs 22.1 k

Early onset of summer helped them ramp up sales in Q4

Geographical breakdown of stores -

112 stores - Bihar
29 stores - Jharkhand
34 stores - UP ( now expanding into central UP. Opened 10 stores in central UP including 6 stores in Lucknow in H2 FY 25 )

Breakup of FY 25 revenues -

Bihar - 80 pc
Jharkhand - 12 pc
UP - 8 pc

**This is likely to change in favour of UP as bulk of new store openings in FY 25 happened in UP **

Aim to open 25 -30 new stores in FY 26 with special focus on UP as company perceives it as a growth mkt for future

Currently witnessing a weaker summer season + unseasonal rains. May moderate their sales growth in Q1

They may revise their store opening guidance upwards in the later part of the year ( if the sales momentum is good )

Have built up inventory as on 31 Mar in anticipation of upcoming summer season + some supply shortage of compressors

Avg sales / store -

Bihar - 16 cr
Jharkhand - 9.3 cr
UP - 5.3 cr

This is not a fair assessment of potential of per store sales as most of UP and Jharkhand’s stores are relatively new

In Q1, 45-50 pc of company’s sales come from ACs

Aiming for double digits SSSG in FY 26

In long term, the potential for number of stores in UP should be double that of Bihar is what the company is projecting

Avg store size for the company is now @ around 4500 Sq Ft ( that’s because company is opening stores with areas > 5000 sq ft, mostly in UP )

Disc: holding, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Emami Ltd -

Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 954 vs 881 cr, up 8 pc
EBITDA - 219 vs 211 cr, up 4 pc ( margins @ 22.8 vs 23.7 pc )
PAT - 162 vs 146 cr, up 10 pc ( helped by higher other income )

Domestic volume growth @ 7 pc
International constant currency growth @ 5 pc

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 3809 vs 3578 cr, up 6.5 pc
EBITDA - 1025 vs 949 cr, up 8 pc ( margins @ 26.9 vs 26.5 pc )
PAT - 802 vs 724 cr, up 11 pc ( amortisation costs iro acquired brands stood @ 92 cr for full FY )

Domestic volume growth @ 5 pc
International constant currency sales growth @ 5 pc

Net Cash on books @ 744 cr

Dividend per share for full FY @ Rs 10 ( @ 49 pc of PAT )

Brand wise performance for FY 25 -

Navratna + Dermicool - grew by 18 pc

Boroplus range - grew by 14 pc

Healthcare range - grew by 12 pc

Pain management - grew by 1 pc

Male grooming - de-grew by 4 pc

Kesh King - de-grew by 9 pc

Helios + Brillaire - de-grew by 5 pc ( led by management changes and business transitions ). These two brands have grown by 4X in last 4 yrs

Organised channels ( like E-Comm, Modern trade ) witnessed a sales growth of 13 pc. They now contribute to 27 pc of company’s total sales

Rural mkts performed well. Urban demand remains tepid

Male grooming grew 7 pc and Kesh King de-grew by 1 pc in Q4 - indicating towards a recovery in these 2 brands. Company has been investing heavily behind these two brands

Zairus Master has been onboarded as COO @ Helios + Brillaire. He was previously heading the operations @ MamaEarth

Company expects a very strong bounce back @ Helios + Brillaire in near term ( as most of the management re-structuring is now behind )

Summers in Q1 have been weak ( with higher than expected rains ). This is likely to have an impact on the sales of their summer portfolio

Smart and Handsome re-launch ( completely new packaging and new brand ambassador ) happened in second week of Jan. Should see a better Q1 wrt this brand

Have launched a new brand - Pure Glow Skin cream ( opposite HUL’s Glow and Lovely ). Will be test marketing it in South India in Q1

**Looking at high double digit growth in Brillaire + Helios for FY 26. Already seeing green shoots in Apr/May. Helios owns the brand - ‘The Man Company’. These two brands clocked revenues of 150 cr ( Man Company ) + 50 cr ( Brillaire ) in FY 26 **

Have also launched a no of new brands under the Zandu Healthcare range. Zandu’s products like - Nityam, Cough Syrups, Health Juices did well in FY 25

Pain management contributes to 25 pc of company’s sales. It’s a high margin segment. Company is going to focus on new product developments to accelerate growth in this category

Looking @ 2-3 kind of price growth for FY 26

Despite the weak summer, should be able to grow in mid single digits in Dermicool + Navratna ( summer portfolio )

Disc: hold a small tracking position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted for information purposes