I read about them after @SALIL_HARLIKAR pointed them out. Cant find them now. Maybe u can dig some more / or maybe I was over cautious. Basically, I don’t remember clearly 
Sorry for the confusing reply 
MOIL -
Notes from AR 2024-25 -
MOIL is India’s premier Manganese mining company. Company’s mines are located in Maharashtra + MP. Company supplies a range of Manganese ore grades to fulfil diverse requirements of various Industries
Manganese has a wide range of industrial and biological uses. Primarily, it’s used in steel production as a deoxidizer, sulfur fixer, and alloying agent, improving steel’s strength and durability. It also plays a role in batteries, aluminum alloys, and as a pigment in glass and ceramics
Company’s geographical footprint -
Mines in MP -
Balaghat
Triodi
Sitapatore
Ukwa
Mines in Maharashtra -
Beldongri
Gumgaon
Chilka
Kandri
Dongri
Munsar
FY 24 financial outcomes -
Revenues - 1449 vs 1341 cr
EBITDA - 531 vs 445 cr
PAT - 293 vs 250 cr
Production in FY 24 stood @ 17.56 lakh tons, up 35 pc YoY ( best ever in company’s history )
Sales in FY 24 stood @ 15.36 lakh tons, up 30 pc YoY ( best ever in company’s history )
Achieved best ever production of Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide @ 1413 tons, up 28 pc YoY. It’s a crucial component in the cathode of various battery types, including alkaline, lithium, and sodium batteries, as well as in electrochemical capacitors and hydrogen production. EMD is characterized by its high purity and specific electrical properties, making it a desirable material for battery manufacturers
In FY 24, company carried out exploratory drilling of 87.7 k meters - more than double of FY 23
Ferro Manganese production in FY 24 stood @ 10.2 k MTs
Resources added by the company over last 5 yrs ( by core drilling ) - 8 MT, 6 MT, 5.5 MT, 2.4 MT & 1.8 MT
Capex plan for next 5 yrs -
MOIL is already the largest manganese ore producer in India. In order to meet the future requirement and maintain leadership in the industry, MOIL has planned to enhance its production to 3.50 million MT by 2030, for which a strategic management plan is already in place ( FY 24 production was @ 1.75 million MTs ). In this direction, company has planned investments for development of existing mines, acquisition of new mines within and outside the country, acquisition of areas adjoining the mines, setting up value addition/ diversification projects, etc. Some of the projects have already started and some are in progress. These projects will require investments of about 2400 crore by 2030 in a phased manner
MOIL has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDC), a Gujarat State enterprise, to explore the possibility of mining of manganese ore in the Pani area of Gujarat. Exploration by core drilling has already been completed and results indicate availability of manganese ore and quantum of about 9.51 million MT. Now, MOIL is in the process of signing Joint Venture (JV) agreement with GMDC in terms of the MoU
MOIL has signed tripartite MoU with the Govt. of Madhya Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh State Mining Corporation Limited (MPSMCL) to explore the possibilities of manganese ore in four districts i.e. Balaghat, Jabalpur, Jhabua and Chhindwara. Govt. of Madhya Pradesh has reserved 487 Sq. Km. and 850 Sq. Km. areas in Chhindwara and Balaghat district respectively vide gazette notification under sub rule (1) of Rule 67 of the Mineral (Other than Atomic and Hydrocarbon Energy) Mineral Concession Rule 2016 to carry out exploration work. MOIL has completed exploration by core drilling in Chhindwara. Exploration in Balaghat area is under process. Some bore holes in the area are showing positive intersection of manganese ore
**Company’s reserves and resources, as on date stand @ 46 and 61 million MTs respectively. This is against entire country’s reserves and resources @ 75 and 428 million MTs **
Ferro Manganese plant is located at Balaghat (12000 MTPA capacity)
Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Plant is located at Dongri Buzurg Mine (1500 MTPA capacity)
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
2 Likes
Gold prices surge past $ 3300 / ounce
Gold’s mkt cap is > $ 20 trillion ( no small mkt )
This continued sharp surge in Gold price + the rising bond yields on 10Y and 30Y US treasury bonds is a descent indictor of current and future course of fund flows - ie - away from dollar assets - towards EM assets
Fingers Crossed
Disc : Bullish on Indian Mkts ( minus exporters to the West in general, US in particular ) , Gold and Silver
4 Likes
What are factors that make you bearish on Indian exports to the West. If BTA with USA and Trade agreements with EU and UK get done in next 1 year, we may well be in purple zone on exports.
Sectors can be debated.
Gold Silver i agree.
U r right. That may well be a blue sky scenario. It’s just that I am a little skeptical wrt USD vs INR. I am of the view that USD is in for a weakening against INR
I may be completely wrong. However, that’s my current train of thought. A weakening USD and a weak consumer demand in US is my base case scenario. Indian imports being favoured over Chinese is the counter argument ( as presented by u )
I am just acting safe ie favouring sectors where I think the chances of disruptions ( positive or negative ) are least
What would the FED do in such a scenario.
While i am not gung-ho about prospects of US consumer, are there pockets where even if consumer story weakens, we can benefit.
That is main question.
Also, Indian consumer story is to a pojnt dependent on IT, GCC and Pharma being strong.
You can read this post on Eimco Elecon👇
1 Like
EIMCO ELECON: A potential multibaggar in a slow growing coal mining sector.
BUSINESS MODEL OF EIMCO ELECON:
Eimco Elecon manufactures mining equipments like Continuous miner, Feeder breaker, Roof bolter, various types of LHDs and Load haul dumpers, Shuttle car, Coal hauler, Side dump loader, Air motor, Universal drill machines, Rocker shovel loader, Hopper loader, Articulated wheel loader etc (pictures along with specifications are available on thier official website eimcoelecon.in). 80% of thier sales come from underground mining equipments. Coal India is a major customer.
BRIEF UNDERSTANDING OF INDIAN COAL INDUSTRY:
Indian coal production grew by almost 10% in FY 24. Coal india 774 MT, Captive+commercial coal blocks 154 MT, SCCL 70 MT and Imports 268 MT.
Govt want to reduce import bill and enhance coal mining capacity. ( Renewable will take over in long run but we need more coal for next 10-20 years. Country is also going throgh massive infra building which needs steel, and steel needs coal for blast furnaces)
In 2019, our Parliament passed a bill that removed end-use restrictions for participating in coal mine auctions and open up the coal sector fully for commercial mining. So far 107 coal blocks have been successfully auctioned with peak rated capacity of 250 MT.
METHODS OF COAL MINING IN INDIA:
There are 2 methods of coal mining in india, Opencast (UC) coal mining (currently 96%) and Underground (UG) coal mining (currently 04%)
ADVANTAGES OF UG COAL MINING:
UG coal is superior in quality compared with OC and reduces the import burden for higher grades of coal. Further, UG mining is minimally invasive on land, detours land acquisition, avoiding its degradation, environmentally clean, and is society friendly. India has huge untapped potential for UG miming. Around 70% of the country’s coal reserves are amenable to UG mining, which delivers several advantages. So far, the primary
reason for slow-pedalling UG mining was loss-incurring production due to conservative and manual operations, which lead to low productivity.
However, now the technology upgradation to BLAST FREE TECHNOLOGY has opened up new avenues.
If we compare with global trends, UG mines accounted for more than 90% in China, about 37% in USA and 50% in South Africa. Europe has stopped open-cast mining and has relied mostly on underground production. Almost 50% of the world coal comes from UG mines.
SNIPPETS FROM COAL INDIA AR 2024:
Coal india plans to quadruple its production volume from ~26 MT to 100 MT over next 5 years. To achieve 100 MT, they aim to deploy 140 Continuous Miner (CM) equipment package with each package costing INR ~100 Cr including service. This opens up market size of 14000 crores for these underground mining equipments.
MAKE IN INDIA MISSION IN MINING:
Coal India has devised a strategic plan to phase out imports of heavy earth-moving machinery (HEMM) and underground mining equipment over the next 5 years.
Currently, Coal India imports high-capacity equipment, such as electric rope shovels, hydraulic shovels, dumpers, crawler dozers, drills, motor graders, and front-end loaders wheel dozers, valued at Rs 3,500 crore, incurring additional expenses of Rs 1,000 crore in customs duty.
CURRENT STATUS OF CONTINUOUS MINER PRODUCTION IN INDIA:
Currently Gainwell, a Panagarh based company under license from Catterpiller and JMS have been able to make continuous miners locally. Eimco Elecon has also been able to make the entire continuous miner package i.e continuous miner along with associated equipments like roof bolter, feeder breaker and shuttle cars. Thier continuous miner had some minor issues, which has been rectified now and the final approvals may take another 2-3 quarters.
FUTURE SCENARIO FOR EIMCO:
In the underground mining sector, the coming days will witness increase in demand for equipment catering to blast-free technology in underground coal mines and bigger size loaders and low profile dump trucks in the metal mines namely Zinc, Copper and Uranium.
Intermediate technology continues to be the backbone of UG with around 65 percent of the total UG Coal production being met by SDLs and
LHDs supplied by Eimco. Thier indigenously developed CM package sales are likely to start in FY 2025-26. Also the introduction of high capacity underground loaders for the metal mines will add to thier revenues. Thier bigger size LHD of 7 Tone and 10 Tone capacities have been established successfully. Recently, they have received and executed several orders for bigger size diesel loaders from UCIL and other leading mine contractors.
ORDER BOOK:
The present order book stands at 140 Cr, with a 4 to 6 month execution cycle. There are promising enquiry levels. A recent order valued at 33 Cr on 19th June has already been fulfilled.
CAPACITY:
The current plant capacity is 370 (3 production lines) loaders, having produced 200 last year. All the lines are interchangeable. No fixed production number can be allocated as they can also execute orders through job work.
INVESTMENTS IN METAL MINING:
Eimco intends to further expand its product offerings in the metal mining segment, including 15 and 30-ton machines. They are developing customized machines for MOIL.
EXPANSION PLANS:
The manufacturing plant is equipped with state-of-the-art machinery from Mazak. They are considering potential investments in technological upgrades.
EIMCO ENTRY INTO CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY:
The Indian construction equipment industry, which
aspires to become the world’s second largest by 2030 is poised for remarkable expansion.
Eimco have now made significant inroads by manufacturing Piling rig under make in India initiative with the technical collaboration with CZM from USA. The performance is better when compared to rivals. They are adding further models to this range to meet market demands for some particular applications and increase the product portfolio.
FUTURE ESTIMATES OF FY 27 NUMBERS:
Realistic assumptions of 20% growth in base business and 25% market share in CM package is used while calculating future estimates. Base business EBIDTA margins are likely to sustain while CM package EBIDTA margins are likeky to be higher at 25%. Cost of CM psckage is considered as 50 crores while cost of maintenance is considered to be part of base business.
FY 27 EXPECTED OUTCOME:
Sales from base business: 390 crores
Sales from CM: 250 crores
Total sales: 640 crores
EBIDTA from base business: 78 crores
EBIDTA from CM: 63 crores
Total EBIDTA: 141 crores.
Current TTM EBIDTA is 48 crores.
A growth of 3x in EBIDTA is expected in next 2 years (FY 27).
For further study, sharing few links.
Rating Rationale
Eimco Elecon prioritizes environment sustainability in design and operations…
Disclosure: Invested with meaningful allocation.
3 Likes
Eventually, FED will have to buy US T Bills ( basically do a QE / print money ). That’s my guess
This may be inevitable to restore consumer confidence, prevent a steep recession. However, this may turn out to be extremely negative for the USD. DXY has already corrected by 10 pc from its peak. A QE now, shall accelerate the weakness further
Stronger rupee may help the GoI offset the negative impact of slowdown in IT + Pharma exports. Stronger rupee may help lower inflation, make India a structurally lower interest rate economy. Appreciating rupee may also give a lot of fiscal space to the GoI ( since it won’t have to worry about a rupee depreciation ). A stronger currency can offset some of the weakness arising out of exports
Disc : this is just a scenario that I am looking at. It may play out / may not play out. However, I am acting as if this is likely to play out. Hence - I m positive on select - NBFCs, Banks, Consumer facing companies, Hotels, Hospitals, Branded domestic Pharma and Agrochemical companies
List of stocks that I am holding / have added recently include -
Kamat Hotels, Eveready Industries, Dhanuka Agritech, Cholamandalam Finance, Federal Bank, KVB, Bajaj Auto, Hero Moto, Emami, Jyothy Labs, EIH, SAMHI Hotels, Indraprastha Medical, Rainbow Childcare, Yatharth Hospitals, Zydus Wellness, Mankind Pharma, Jagsonpal Pharma, RPG life sciences, Eris Lifesciences, CG Consumer, Orient Electric, Dodla Dairy, Heritage Foods, Hind Zinc, MOIL, Krsnaa Diagnostics, Godrej Agrovet, Insecticides India etc
Additionally, I did buy Gold + Silver, about 2 months ago. Holding both as a hedge against global uncertainty + USD depreciation
5 Likes
Hi … @bully …
I requested one of my friends to post his detailed work on Eimco Elecon after ur request. He has posted it above 
Sorry for the late response
2 Likes
Thanks a ton 
. Very much appreciated.
Disclosure : Holding
Just an observation -
Gold is an out an out precious metal. Silver is both a precious metal and an Industrial metal
Gold is a far bigger mkt vs Silver ( an easy comparison is a typical large cap vs small cap stock )
In response to the trade war, USD weakening etc … Gold prices have already started rallying. Silver prices haven’t quite kept pace. It generally happens that ways ( ie Gold rallies first - in a gradual manner, Silver then catches up sharply ). One can look at their historical charts to find out more about this lead - lag behaviour
Disc : holding both Gold, Silver. Biased. Not an advice. Just sharing my perspective
2 Likes
Yes. I am precisely looking at something like this. FED and treasury will bail out the US economy and consumer by doing what it always does. Push the Can down the road.
I am balanced both on exports and domestic consumer base. I do believe that India may benefit to some extent on this. But focusing on industrials in exports and will get out at first sign of breakdown. I am breakeven or above on all of these investments despite last few months of topsy turvy markets so have no qualms selling.
Domestic consumer base will rapidly expand. While major IT companies are not hiring, there is rapid expansion of GCC markets. For eg: Single Walmart in last six months has leased 1.2 Msqt of space across Bangalore and Chennai for tech based and data-based roles. Thats 13500 roles. So, what was predominantly IT service company hiring is moving to GCC.
Consumer story i am playing with top tier NBFC’s and some FMCG firms. Looking to buy something in domestic pharma, Missed the agro theme despite completing full research.
1 Like
Icici Lombard -
Q4 and FY 25 results and concall highlights -
FY 25 highlights -
Gross Direct Premium Income @ 26833 vs 24776 cr, up 8.3 pc vs an Industry growth of 6.2 pc
Combined ratio stood @ 102.8 pc vs 103.3 pc for FY 24
PBT @ 3321 vs 2555 cr
Capital gains @ 802 vs 551 cr in FY 24
PAT @ 2508 vs 1919 cr, up 31 pc YoY
Q4 FY 25 highlights -
GDPI @ 6211 vs 6073 cr YoY, up 2.3 pc vs an Industry growth of 1.7 pc
Combined ratio @ 102.5 vs 102.3 pc YoY
PBT @ 668 vs 698 cr, down 4 pc YoY
Capital gains in Q4 stood @ 6 vs 156 cr in Q4 LY
PAT @ 510 vs 519 cr, down 2 pc YoY
RoE in FY 25 vs FY 24 stood @ 19.1 vs 17.2 pc
Breakdown of company’s product portfolio -
Motor Own Damage - 20 vs 19 pc
Motor Third Party - 20vs 20 pc
Health, Travel and Accident - 29 vs 29 pc
Fire - 12 vs 14 pc
Marine - 3 vs 3 pc
Crop - 5 vs 4 pc
Others - 11 vs 11 pc
Company’s motor insurance Mkt share stood @ 10.8 vs 10.5 pc YoY
Breakdown of company’s health insurance portfolio -
Individual - 21.4 vs 18.8 pc
Group - 23.1 vs 30.6 pc
Group - Employer to Employee - 55.4 vs 50.6 pc
Company’s retail health Mkt share grew from 3.0 to 3.3 pc in last 1 yr
Company’s investment book stands @ 53.5k vs 48.8k cr YoY ( with leverage @ 3.74 vs 4.09 pc ). Annualised return stood @ 8.42 vs 7.98 pc
Excluding Crop insurance, GDPI growth in Q4 would have been 4 pc
Segmental growth in Q4 -
Motor - 6.5 pc ( due pricing pressures and reduced off takes in new car sales )
Health Overall - 3.7 pc
Retail Health - 7 pc
Commercial Lines ( like marine, fire etc ) - 3 pc
Industry’s combined Ratio @ 113 pc ( Motor Insurance’s combined ratio is the worst @ 123 pc )
Company’s breakdown of Motor Insurance business -
Private Car - 53 vs 51 pc
Two Wheelers - 25 vs 26 pc
CVs - 22 vs 23 pc
For full FY 25, segmental GDPI and loss ratios -
Motor - 10740 vs 9634 cr ( up 11.5 pc ), loss ratio @ 64.2 vs 65.2 pc
Health - 7673 vs 7117 cr ( up 8 pc ), loss ratio @ 82.2 vs 78.9 pc
Crop - 1425 vs 1175 cr ( up 21 pc ), loss ratio @ 89.2 vs 88.4 pc
Property and Casualty ( like - fire, marine cargo, engineering, liability ) - 6995 vs 6851 cr ( up 2.1 pc ), loss ratio @ 60 vs 68.6 pc
Investment income in FY 25 @ 4250 vs 3610 cr, YoY
Investment income in Q4 @ 877 vs 954 cr, YoY
Recommended a final dividend of Rs 7 / share at the end of Q4. For full FY, dividend stands @ 12 / share
As sales of CVs pick up ( vs LY where the capex activities remained subdued ), company expects some pickup in Motor Insurance business. Their Base in private cars business is already high. For full FY 26, expecting a mid single digit kind of growth in GDPI for the Motor segment
Should be able to grow the Health ( retail + group ) business in double digits
Commercial Insurance ( engineering + marine + fire + liability ) has been growing slowly in last 4-5 yrs. Seeing some pickup going forward. Worst seems to be behind
Q4 Corporate health loss ratio @ 97.2 vs 88.1
Q4 Retail health loss ratio @ 64.8 pc vs 64.6 pc
Pricing pressures did see some relief in the Fire Insurance Industry in recent past vs the intense price war / irrational pricing going on previously. This is a key positive for the company going forward
As the Industry discipline improves ( ie rational underwriting vs intense competition and irrationally low qutoes on underwriting ), it should augur really well for ICICI Lombard. It should help them grow faster and improve their profitability even further
Disc: holding, biased, added recently, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered
1 Like
Sir are you also starts using charts in your investing journey or is it just to show lag between Gold and silver?
I personally don’t use charts ( nor can I read them ). It just mentioned them to show the lead - lag relationship between Gold - Silver prices. The hypothesis being - since gold has moved, it should be silver’s turn now
2 Likes
@ranvir - how do we buy silver ? is it thru ETF?
That can be done. However, the ETF prices generally experience significant tracking errors vs the physical prices ( I don’t know why )
One can also buy MMTC’s Physical Silver bars ( 100 gms, 500 gms, 1 kg ) from local Jewellers dealing in silver
1 Like
Is online also advisable
MMTC-PAMP
Rallis India -
Q3 and 9M FY25 results and concall highlights -
Company overview -
Company’s Crop Care manufacturing facilities are located @ Akola, Love, Ankleshwar, Dahej SEZ, Dahej Chemical Zone, third party facilities ( total 9 of them )
Company’s seeds manufacturing ( drying, processing, packaging ) facilities are located @ Medchal, GP Pally, Konkkonda
Company’s 02 R&D centers are located @ Bengaluru
Company’s domestic business covers 80 pc of India’s districts. Their export business covers 80+ countries
Company’s key focus areas wrt Crop Care -
Build strategic alliances
Intensify custom synthesis manufacturing capabilities
Capture underserved segments
Enhanced focus on biologicals & speciality solutions
Company’s key focus wrt Seeds business -
Extend their success in Cotton in North India to other mkts
Plug portfolio gaps in maize and paddy
Company’s key brands -
Daksh Plus ( herbicide for Wheat crop )
Dodrio ( fungicide )
Benzilla ( insecticide used for Rice crop )
Aquafert ( Fertigation - Pomegranate )
Consorich NPK ( Biofertilizer )
Aquafert ( Fertigation - Banana )
DIGAAZ - Cotton Hybrid Seed
MM9375 - Maize Hybrid Seed
DR8375 - Paddy Hybrid Seed
MP7899 - Millet Hybrid Seed
Q3 FY 25 outcomes -
Revenues - 522 vs 598 cr, down 13 pc
EBITDA - 44 vs 61 cr, down 27 pc
PAT - 11 vs 24 cr
9M FY 25 outcomes -
Revenues - 2233 vs 2212 cr
EBITDA - 306 vs 304 cr
PAT - 157 vs 169 cr
Challenges in Crop Care export business continue to persist ( both volume and price drops)
Reservoir levels in the current Rabi season are up 24 pc vs LY
In Q3, company’s export business de-grew by 38 pc with a volume drop of 34 pc and 4 pc price erosion. Company continues to work on improving its cost competitiveness and expanding its addressable customer base
Company’s Cash balance @ > 200 cr
Capex intensity going forward should be light as the current capacities are yet to be optimally utilised
Gross margins in Q3 are up 3.4 pc vs LY - this is because of sharply lower export sales and higher percentage of domestic sales
Company has decided to discontinue unprofitable products in the domestic mkts. Company has identified such products and has stopped building their inventories
Company’s international portfolio mainly consists of legacy products. It is going to take time for company’s newer products to gain volume traction as far as exports are concerned. Additionally, the international Corn, Wheat and Soyabean prices continue to remain subdued. Hence, the outlook for their exports business continues to be weak
Domestic crop care business is up 6 pc YTD ( ie 9M FY 25 ). In Q1 + Q2, company’s crop care business was growing in healthy double digits. In Q3, abrupt cessation of monsoons + weak Chilli season + company having portfolio gaps in their Herbicides portfolio - led to the underperformance
Breakup of Q3 revenues, EBITDA -
Crop Care - 492 cr ( Exports @ 110 cr ), EBITDA @ 61 cr
Seeds - 30 cr, EBITDA @ (-) 16 cr
Breakup of 9M revenues -
Crop Care - 1840 cr, EBITDA @ 243 cr
Seeds - 393 cr, EBITDA @ 63 cr
YTD, while the exports business continued to show weakness, the domestic speciality and nutrients business grew strongly @ 24 pc YoY
Pricing in the international markets are a factor of supply from the Chinese players + the commodity prices of crops like Wheat, Soybean, Corn. Tracking these commodity prices does help estimate the strength / weakness in the international agrochemicals business
Steps being taken by the company to accelerate growth going forward -
Filling gaps in Herbicides business
Continued focus on biologicals, nutrients and speciality solutions
Expanding the seeds business
Working on contract manufacturing opportunities
Disc : not holding, studying, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered