I generally keep 50-60. Except for top 10-15 stocks, I also keep trading them 
To be able to trade them, I need to keep a track of so many of them 
2 Likes
Sir what is your allocation % for long term stocks and for trading stocks.
…I am new here. Not able to use emojis. How to use them.
For investment ideas - I generally buy 3-4 pc each. For trading ideas - say about 1 pc each
That’s the broad breakup
3 Likes
how much percentage of portfolio constitutes 15 stocks?
Bajaj Auto -
Q3 FY 25 results and Concall highlights -
Revenues - 13169 vs 12165 cr
EBITDA - 2751 vs 2415 cr ( margins @ 21 vs 20 pc )
Other Income - 348 vs 356 cr
PAT - 2196 vs 2033 cr
Volumes > 12 lakh, slightly more than Q2 volumes
Export volumes in Q3 crossed 5 lakh, after 8 Qtrs
Clocked highest ever volumes for Pulsars, KTMs and Triumphs in the domestic mkt in Q3
Completed full rollout of BACL ( Bajaj Auto Credit Ltd ) across all dealerships of Bajaj Auto
EVs now constitute about 22 pc of domestic volumes
EVs + CNG sales now comprise 44 pc of all domestic sales
Exports volumes grew 27 pc in Q3. LatAm sales are now 2X that of Africa sales and Value realisations in LatAm is now 3X that of African sales
LatAm sales grew by 40 pc. 60 pc of LatAm sales comprise of Pulsars + Dominars
Nigeria sales were steady @ 35k/ month. Bajaj enjoys 55 pc mkt share in Nigeria
This export performance was achieved despite 50 pc fall in KTM exports due issues being faced by KTM in Europe. KTM now comprise 2 pc of exports vs a peak of 5 pc
Dominar is doing really well in export mkts. Company is now expanding Domino’s manufacturing by another 50k/yr
Growth in 125 cc + segments is 2X vs 100 cc and below segments
Have sold 50k CNG bikes - Freedom within 5 months of its launch
Sold over 1.25 lakh 3Ws in Q3, 17k out of them were EVs. Company’s E - 3Ws are now available across 800 locations
Aim to launch E - Rikshaws by end of FY 25
Chetak’s mkt share in E-2Ws has risen to 22 pc at the end of Q3 vs 12 pc in Dec 23 - a massive jump
This momentum of market share acquisition should
increase further with the launch of the 35 platform, which happened in end December. The new
platform provides us the best Chetak yet with a higher range, advanced displays, faster charging
and best-in-class boot space combined with the already popular elegant styling and robust build
quality
The EV 2Ws should turn profitable by end of Q4 as the scale keeps improving
KTMs and Triumphs continue to do well in the domestic mkts
BACL has also turned PAT positive in Q3
Sale of spares in Q3 crossed 1500 cr for the first time ever
If the KTM exports were not struggling, company’s Q3 performance could have been far better
Cash on books crossed 15,000 cr despite investing 1600 cr in BACL and undertaking 450 cr of Capex in 9M FY 25
Management believes they should be able to grow exports @ 20 pc plus rates for next 2-3 Qtrs as well
At present, about 45k E-Rikshaws r sold in India / month. Most are import dependent, substandard, unorganised. Looks like a big opportunity for Bajaj Auto starting next FY
Going to introduce wide bodied E-3W very soon. There is a demand for such a product in tier -3 and below towns
Company has a strong pipeline of products lined up for next 4 Qtrs - both on 2W and 3W side. Should expect a lot of action going forward
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
1 Like
Kotak Bank -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Bank’s results -
NII - 7196 vs 6554 cr, up 10 pc
Other Income - 2623 vs 2297 cr, up 14 pc
Operating profit - 5181 vs 4566 cr, up 13 pc
Provisions - 794 vs 579 cr
PAT - 3305 vs 3005 cr, up 10 pc
RoE @ 11.63 vs 13.10 pc
NIMs @ 4.93 vs 5.22 pc
Cost / Income - 47.24 vs 48.41
RoA - 2.10 vs 2.20 pc
CASA - 42.3 vs 42.7 pc
PAT contribution from subsidiaries -
Kotak Prime - 218 vs 239 cr
Kotak Investments - 107 vs 157 cr
Kotak Securities - 448 vs 306 cr
Kotak Capital - 94 vs 35 cr
Kotak Life - 164 vs 140 cr
Kotak AMC - 240 vs 146 cr
Consolidated PAT @ 4615 vs 4207 cr, up 10 pc
Total deposits - 4.58 lakh cr, up 15 pc ( CA grew by 12 pc, SA grew by 1 pc , Term Deposits grew by 24 pc )
Cost of funds @ 5.06 vs 4.92 pc
Cost of SA @ 3.92 vs 4.14 pc
CASA + TDs < 5 cr / account form 78 pc of deposits
Advances - 4.33 lakh cr, up 16 pc
Breakup of Bank’s loan book -
HL + LAP - 1.21 lakh cr, up 19 pc
Business banking - 41 k cr, up 23 pc
PL + CD loans - 21 k cr, up 10 pc
Credit Cards - 14 k cr, up 2 pc
CV + CE loans - 41 k cr, up 21 pc
Agri loans - 27 k cr, flat YoY
Tractor finance - 17 k cr, up 12 pc
Retail Microfinance - 8 k cr, down 2 pc
Commercial loans - 93 k cr, up 10 pc
Corporate loans - 96 k cr, up 15 pc
SME - 34 k cr, up 31 pc
Asset Quality -
Opening GNPAs - 6033 cr
Fresh slippages - 1657 vs 1177 cr ( slippages in Q2 were @ 1875 cr. QoQ fall in slippages in a positive sign )
Udgrades + Recoveries - 762 vs 830 cr
Write Offs - 662 vs 132 cr
Closing GNPAs - 6266 vs 6302 cr
GNPAs - 1.5 vs 1.73 pc
NNPAs - 0.41 vs 0.34 pc
Total provisions @ 6634 vs 6963 cr
RBI’s ban on Online Onboarding of new customers and issuance of new Credit cards lifted on 12 Feb
Stress on PL, CC portfolios is now tapering off. Asset quality in these portfolios should start improving wef Q4
Continue to be cautious on the Micro Fin portfolio
Credit : Deposits ratio @ 84 pc ( very healthy levels )
Total AUM of Kotak AMC crossed 5 lakh cr in Q3
SME portfolio continues to be very stable ( along with high growth rates )
Not seeing any signs of stress across the secured lending books
Company’s stated aim is to have the unsecured portion of lending @ 15 pc of total loan book. Because of RBI’s ban, the same has dropped to 10.5 pc. It also has a drag on NIMs
Similarly, the embargo on online onboarding of retail clients has hurt the bank’s ability to grow granular deposits
Despite RBI’s ban, bank has been able to handsomely grow its advances. Now that the ban has been lifted, the growth in Advances should only accelerate
The contribution in slippages from the micro finance book in Q3 is significant. As the bank is turning cautious on this segment, the same should reverse going forward - should be a key positive
Disc: holding biased, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered
5 Likes
Hero MotoCorp -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 10211 cr, up 5 pc
EBITDA - 1475 cr, up 8 pc
Other Income - 306 cr
PAT - 1203 cr, up 12 pc
Company has launched 6 models in Q3 -
Affordable Vida V2
Destini 125 - metal body
Xoom 125, Xoom 160
Xtreme 250, XPulse 210
Continued to dominate the 100 cc segment - led by Splendour
Sharp gains in mkt share in 125 cc segment from 13 pc to 20 pc (YoY ) led by - Xtreme125, Super Splendour
Parts, Accessories and Merchandise revenues @ 1555 cr, up 9 pc YoY
Company’s mkt share at the end of Dec 24 -
Motorcycles - 42.7 pc vs 41.6 pc YoY
Scooters - 5.7 pc vs 8.6 pc YoY
Combined mkt share - 29.6 pc vs 30.5 pc YoY
Financing sales as a percentage of sales @ 65.2. Out of these, 36 pc were financed by Hero Fincorp
Have declared an interim dividend of Rs 100 / share
ICE 2Ws EBITDA @ 16 pc vs company levels EBITDA of 14 pc
Bulk of company’s customers have an annual income of Rs 6-12 lakh / yr. The recent tax breaks announced in the budget should stimulate demand of the company
Invested Rs 140 cr in the EV business in Q3
Company’s EV portfolio should become PLI compliant wef next FY. Company should see PLI benefits to start flowing wef next FY
Company has crossed 700 Hero 2.0 stores ( these are upgraded versions of their existing stores. Company has decided to upgrade a fixed no of its erstwhile stores to 2.0 standards ). These are upgraded stores giving a better customer experience
Have also crossed 60 Premia stores - should take them to 100 stores before end of FY 25. Premia stores have been opened to sell premium vehicles like - Harley X440, Harley Maverick, Karizma XMR, X Pulse 200 and Vida EVs
Within next 6 months - company will aggressively expand its product portfolio in the EV-scooters mkt. Have lined up multiple launches in this space
Vida V2 has an improved cost structure. The fresh EV launches lined up in the future should have an even better cost structure
Company has lowered its EV dispatches as the company is transitioning from V1 to V2 platform. Should reverse going forward
Hero Fincorp’s AUM stands @ 55k cr, up 13 pc YoY. Did see stress in their asset quality in Q2, Q3. Asset quality is showing an improving trend wef Jan/Feb. Credit cost for Hero Fincorp in Q3 remain elevated @ 6 pc
As company expands its EV distribution and as Vida V2 is rolled out, company is confident of rapidly scaling up their mkt share. In some cities / towns - where their EV distribution is good, they have already started clocking 15-20 pc mkt share. Company believes, its only a matter of time before they can replicate the same nationally ( specially when the pricing on Vida V2 is much lower )
Did see a big spike in rural demand in Q3. Additional govt measures should keep the rural demand buoyant going forward
Guiding for a double digit revenue growth for FY 26
The pickup in EV sales ( post the transition ) should start to reflect in numbers wef end of Feb / beginning of Mar 25
Disc: holding, added recently, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
1 Like
Godrej Agrovet -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Q3 outcomes -
Revenues - 2450 vs 2345 cr, up 4.5 pc
EBITDA - 229 vs 171 cr, up 34 pc ( margins @ 9.3 vs 7.3 pc )
PAT - 99 vs 85 cr, up 17 pc ( PAT has an adverse impact on account of reversal of a deferred tax asset on losses in Astec Lifesciences )
9M FY 25 outcomes -
Revenues - 7249 vs 7426 cr, down 2.5 pc
EBITDA - 685 vs 592 cr, up 15.7 pc ( margins @ 9.4 vs 8 pc )
PAT - 320 vs 299 cr, up 7 pc
EBITDA and PAT were adversely impacted by weak performance at Astec Lifesciences
9M split of revenues, EBITDA -
Animal feed - 47 pc, 35 pc
Veg Oils - 16 pc, 33 pc
Crop protection - 11 pc, 24 pc
Dairy - 16 pc , 6 pc
Processed food + Poultry - 8 pc, 4 pc
Others - 1 pc, 4 pc
Key business highlights for 9M FY 25 -
Animal feed business’s EBIT / MT improved by 42 pc YoY
Dairy business EBITDA improved by 70 pc YoY. VAP salience now stands @ 36 pc
Palm Oils business EBIT improved by 30 pc YoY
Crop protection business’s EBIT improved by 42 pc YoY
Branded volumes in Godrej Tyson foods improved by 7 pc YoY
Astec’s losses reduced sharply in Q3 led by pick up in CDMO business. Weakness in generics business continues
Margin expansion in Animal feed business attributable to lower RM prices
Higher output prices for Palm oil and Palm kernel oils led the growth for the segment
EBIT / MT in animal feeds business was Rs 1935 / MT. Looking at the RM situation and the various cost saving and R&D initiatives that the company has taken, company expects EBIT / MT in Q4 to expand to > Rs 2100 / MT. Management expects, they should be able to hold onto 1800 - 2000 / MT kind of EBIT for FY 26 as well ( provided RM costs remain favourable )
Guiding for 30-40 pc kind of growth for Astec’s CDMO business in FY 26. Plus the pricing in generics are also stabilising and not falling anymore
Expect a good Q4 performance in the standalone crop protection business - ie good growth in both top and bottomline on a YoY basis ( despite a weak Q3 )
Good / Great performance in palm oils business is because of imposition of 20 pc import duty by GoI. Another tailwind is Indonesia diverting 40 pc of their palm oils production towards bio-diesel. That is helping palm oil prices to remain elevated across the world
As the output prices of palm oils increase, company retains the 20 pc of incremental prices and passes on the 80 pc benefits to the farmers
On a 9M basis, dairy sales are up by 2 pc but EBIT is up 70 pc. However in Q3, EBITDA declined by 5 pc YoY. The same has happened as the Industry took some time in passing on the increase in procurement prices to end consumers. Q4 should be better wrt margins. Company has started to hit 27-30 pc gross margins in their dairy business which is line with their industry peers. Their cost structures are now in good shape. Q4 is also a good Qtr for the Industry as the sales of VAP starts inching up as the summer strikes. Company is likely to end FY 25 @ 65 pc procurement from direct farmers - a significant jump vs LY. Aim to take it to above 75 pc by end of FY 26
For 9Ms 25 vs 24 - breakdown of Poultry and Food processing business -
Live birds - 26 vs 41 pc
Yummies - 20 vs 15 pc
Real Good Chicken - 54 vs 43 pc
Company’s real good chicken’s mostly go to India’s branded restaurant chains
Company’s domestic agrochemicals business is mostly skewed towards Cotton and Chillies
This yr, company expects its CDMO business to remain flattish @ around 270 cr. Earlier there was an expectation of sharp growth in their CDMO business to around 400 cr for FY 25. However, the award of orders got delayed and this guidance has been pushed to FY 26. In the next concall, company will give out an accurate guidance based on actual orders at hand
Expect the generic agrochemicals business ( under Astec ) to grow in double digits with significantly improved margins in FY 26 ( have been clocking negative Gross Margins in the recent past ) - things should improve meaningfully going forward
Guiding for better Q4 and FY 26 wrt the animal feeds business
Company believes, bulk of procurement price hikes in milk are behind ( happened in Q3 ). Company was able to pass on the same to the consumers on 21 Jan
Capex for 9M FY 25 @ 160 cr. Likely to go upto 220 cr or so by year end. Expect similar capex figure for next FY as well
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted for educational purposes
1 Like
Northern Arc -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
AUM @ 12,250 cr ( last 10 yr AUM CAGR @ 29 pc )
9M FY PAT @ 267 cr ( last 10 yr PAT CAGR @ 28 pc )
D2C AUM @ 52 pc - on the back of expanding distribution footprint
Granular loan portfolio @ 6387 cr
Break up of loan book of 12,250 cr -
MSME - 39 vs 38 pc ( grew by 20 pc YoY )
MFIs - 19 vs 26 pc ( conscious decision to go slow on the MFI segment, de-grew by 18 pc YoY )
Consumer Finance - 29 vs 26 pc ( grew by 33 pc YoY )
Others - 13 vs 10 pc ( grew by
D2C loan mix @ 52 pc vs 19 pc in FY 21
Intermediate retail @ 48 pc vs 81 pc in FY 21
Fund management business -
AUMs @ 2796 cr
Fee realisation @ 1 pc
Funding breakdown -
Banks - 64 pc
Offshore FIIs - 28 pc
NBFCs - 6 pc
Domestic HNIs - 2 pc
Positive ALM across all buckets
Avg tenure of borrowings @ 2.8 yrs
Cost of funds @ 9.1 pc vs 9.4 pc YoY
Portfolio yield @ 17.5 pc vs 16.3 pc YoY
NIMs @ 9.1 pc vs 8.4 pc YoY
Q3 PAT @ 76 vs 75 cr YoY
9M FY 25 PAT @ 267 vs 220 cr YoY
Interest Income - 478 vs 427 cr, up 12 pc
Interest expenses - 211 vs 184 cr, up 15 pc
NII - 267 vs 244 cr, up 10 pc
Fee and Other income - 21 vs 23 cr
Credit costs - 81 vs 53 cr
Employee + Operating costs - 113 vs 106 cr
PAT - 76 vs 75 cr
Total branches now @ 373
PCR @ 60 pc
Company’s fund management business is now 10 yrs old. They r bullish on this business going forward
Seeing a declining trend in Bank’s lending rates. Cost of funds should gradually come down going forward
Seeing reduced delinquencies in the MFI business in last 1-2 months. But, it may be too early to call a turnaround in the MFI cycle. Would like to see another 2-3 months of improved collection efficiencies to be able to confidently call the bottom
25 pc of slippages in Q3 are from indirect ( intermediate ) business and 75 pc are from the direct lending business
Credit cost for 9M FY 25 is around 211 cr. Out of this, aprox 53 cr have come from the MFI business
Company’s total consumer base stands @ 19 lakhs ( including direct + indirect customers )
Should be able to grow their AUM by 15-20 pc in next FY
Company is maintaining a very conservative Debt/Equity of aprox 2.5. Can easily go upto 4-4.5. Clearly, they won’t require a fund raise for next 2-3 yrs
Stage 3 loans currently @ 110 cr - Out of these, aprox 75 cr are from affordable housing, LAP and MSME segments. ( there is nothing from MFI segment as the company writes off its 90 days + pending MFI loans )
Collection efficiency has improved in Nov, Dec. Jan’s collection efficiency have been flat to slightly lower YoY
Disc: added recently, tracking position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
I have few questions,
Q1: How do you see the correction of 43% from its 52w high price. Any issues that the investors are noticing?
Q2: Promotor had few red flags in recent past. Is the story over and what if something similar happens again?
Q3: how do you see the business growing for the next 3 years?
1 Like
Godavari Power and Ispat -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Company profile -
Captive mines -
Company has captive iron ore mines. Total reserves at 165 Mn Tons with 35 yrs + of mine life. Present capacity @ 3 Mn Tons / yr. Expected to go upto 6.7 Mn Tons / yr in near future
Power generation capacities -
165 MW Solar power plant
29 MW Biomass power plant
42 MW Waste Heat recovery plant
1.5 MW Wind power plant
Product portfolio -
Iron ore pellets, sponge iron, steel billets, wire rod, HB wire, ferro alloys, galvanised fabricated products. Company produces high grade pellets which earn 1000 - 1500 / MT over and above the mkt price of pellets. Pellets manufacturing capacity is also expected to double to 4.7 Mn Tons / yr ( along with doubling of mining capacities to 6.7 Mn Tons / yr )
Cash on Books - 725 cr. Company is debt free
Q3 performance -
Revenues - 1298 vs 1309 cr
EBITDA - 221 vs 331 cr ( margins @ 17 vs 25 pc )
PAT - 145 vs 229 cr
Iron Ore Mining and Pellet Production dropped slightly, whereas Production Volume of Sponge Iron, HB Wires, Ferro Alloys and Galvanized Fabricated products increased by 4%, 33%, 36% & 33% respectively
Sales of Iron Ore Pellets decreased due to shifting of export consignment to Q4FY25. Sponge Iron, Steel Billets and MS Rounds decreased due to increase in Production of HB Wires. Sales of HB Wires, Ferro Alloys and Galvanized Fabricated Products increased significantly by 24%, 81% and 29% respectively
Realisation of almost all products except Ferro alloys showed a decreasing trend in the range of 2-8 pc
Revenue, EBITDA and PAT dropped due to lower production of iron ore, pellets and drop in realisations of almost all products except ferro alloys
9M FY 25 performance -
Revenues - 3908 vs 3926 cr
EBITDA - 875 vs 999 cr ( margins @ 22 vs 25 pc )
PAT - 590 vs 700 cr
Line up of Capex -
Expansion of Iron ore mining capacity from 2.35 to 6 Mn Tons / yr
Crushing and Beneficiation - putting up a capacity of 6 Mn Tons / yr - Total cost @ 325 cr, cost incurred @ 165 cr, Balance to be incurred @ 160 cr
Pellet plant capacity expansion from 2.7 Mn Tons / yr to 4.7 Mn Tons / yr. Total cost @ 600 cr, cost incurred @ 170 cr, Balance to be incurred @ 430 cr
Solar power plant capacity expansion from 165 MW to 260 MW. Total cost @ 305 cr, yet to be incurred
Energy efficiency and decarbonisation capex @ 75 cr, yet to be incurred. Should be able to generate 11 MW of additional power generation without extra fuel. Should result in cost savings @ 38 cr / yr
Current Mkt price of Iron Ore - Rs 6200 / MT. Captive Ore’s landed cost @ Rs 3010 / MT - Captive mining operations have such a large competitive advantage
Company expects to get the approval of expansion in mining capacity to 6 Mn Tons / yr to come through by Q1 FY 26
Expanded pellet plant capacity of 4.7 Mn Tons is expected to be commissioned by Q2 FY 26
Company has dropped a plan to set up a 2 Mn Tons / yr Greenfield steel plant
Have entered a LNG purchase agreement with GAIL for its pellets plant for a period of 7 yrs
Company is qualified to supply Iron pellets to all Galvanised Steel structures of Power Grid Corporation Ltd
Steel demand in India remains robust and growing. Uncertainties wrt global trade policies and imports however remain
As company’s expanded solar capacities come on stream, they ll further help them save costs
Management ( after dropping the 2 Mn Tons / yr steel plant ) is considering to set up a smaller ( 1 Mn Tons / yr ) kind of plant so as to keep their balance sheet light ( 6 MT Tons / yr kind of plant would have costed them > 8000 cr )
Demand for iron pellets were weak in Q3 in the domestic mkt. Hence the company resorted to exports and the shipment was sent in Jan 25. However, the domestic demand has picked up in Q4. hence the company is not going to export in Q4
As the domestic demand for iron ore has come back, domestic iron ore prices are holding up much better vs international prices
The new pellets plant should be able to ramp up to optimum capacity by end of Q3. Company should definitely start to see positive financial effects from this new plant wef Q4 next year
Capex spends for Q4 FY 25 + FY 26 should be around 1000 cr ( for the projects mentioned above ). Company has enough cash on books to be able to handle this
The new pellets plant that company is going to come up with may result in over supply of pellets in the domestic mkt. Company is well aware of this. Hence, will resort to exports in such a scenario. In long term, this should settle down
The revised Capex estimates for reduced capacity steel plant that company intends to set up in FY 27 should be between 3k - 4k cr
**For FY 27, company expects a significant jump in revenues and EBITDA as the new mines and pellet plant will be fully operational and running at optimum capacities. Company should be able to clock 1500 cr of EBITDA in FY 27 in the worst case scenario **
In next 6-9 months, aprox 10 million Tons of additional pellets capacity is going to get added in and around Chattisharh area. There is a potential oversupply risk here. Hence he company intends to set up its own steel plant to hedge their bets
India’s current pellet capacity stands @ 150 million MTs / yr. Out of this, only minimal Qty gets exported - that too only by the players having plants near sea ports
Q4 results should be strong for the company as the left over volumes of pellets in Q3 ( shipped in Jan ) will get accounted for in Q4
Company’s product wise EBITDA margins -
Iron Pellets - Rs 4000 / MT
HB Wires and Other value added products - Rs 5000 - 7000 / MT
Disc: added recently, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
1 Like
Hi …
I did take up a tracking position in Northern Arc out of enthusiasm - seeing good numbers, manageable stress levels etc
However - on greater scrutiny ( as also pointed out by u ), did come across those potential corporate governance issues. Hence - I ve sold my shares ( today )
1 Like
Sorry for the confusion Ranvir, actually I had replied to your post on Hero motor corp. Pls let me know your views.
At present, I think - Hero Moto may be trading at not so expensive valuations. That’s one
Plus the recent tax cuts in the budget, strong Agri - GDP growth rates, good rural demand, increased GoI’s welfare spending in rural areas - may all turn out to be a good demand driver for rural focussed stocks
Can’t imagine a meaningful downside from here, with a lot of scope for positive surprises
2 Likes
Problem with hero is lack of new products.
TVS and Honda are rocketing ahead here. New products and new tech.
Bajaj has Pulsar.
I am purposely not including EV because they contribute single digit currently to sales%
Another thing to note is constant churn of Senior Execs at Hero. This means NPD gets delayed. Focus is diverted etc etc…
4 Likes
Alkem Labs -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 3374 vs 3323 cr
Gross margins @ 64.3 vs 60.8 pc - massive margin expansion
EBITDA - 759 vs 707 cr, up 7.3 pc ( margins @ 22.5 vs 21.3 pc )
PAT - 625 vs 595 cr, up 5.2 pc ( margins @ 18.5 vs 17.9 pc )
Breakup of sales -
India Sales - 2364 vs 2232 cr, up 5.9 pc
International sales - 960 vs 1024 cr, down 6.2 pc
Company’s therapy wise rank in IPM -
Anti Infectives - 1
GI - 3
Pain / Analgesics - 3
Vit / Minerals / Nutrients - 2
Gynae - 8
Q3 US sales @ 634 vs 683 cr, down 7 pc YoY
US sales as a percentage of total sales @ 18 pc
Other International sales @ 325 vs 340 cr, down 4 pc YoY
9M FY 25 financial outcomes -
Revenues - 9820 vs 9731 cr, up 1 pc
Gross margins @ 64.5 vs 60.6 pc - massive improvement
EBITDA - 2120 vs 1843 cr, up 15 pc ( margins @ 21.7 vs 18.9 pc )
PAT - 1859 vs 1502 cr, up 24 pc
9M India sales @ 6848 vs 6461 cr, up 6 pc
9M International sales @ 2846 vs 3029 cr, down 8 pc
9M US sales @ 1873 vs 2146 cr, down 12 pc YoY
9M US sales as a percentage of gross sales @ 19 pc
Company’s subsidiary - Enzene’s Biosimilar plant ( their subsidiary ) in US should go commercial in Q1 FY 26 ( have spent 400 cr on the same ). Seeing good enquiries + Orders to be made from this facility. Will share more details at an appropriate time. This facility will focus on CDMO operations
Company hopes that their Biosimilars CDMO plant should break even in FY 26
Company’s subsidiary - MedTech ltd’s plant should also go live sometime in Q3. It will manufacture Hip and Knee replacement implants under license from Exatech US. They should be able to launch their products in the mkt by Q1 or Q2 next FY
Commercialisation expenses for both these plants ( MedTech and Enzene ) should start flowing into P&L wef Q3
Lower sales in US + Lower API prices have helped company improve their Gross Margins in 9M FY 25. As the RoW sales pick up, they should also support the Gross Margins
Company is also bullish about their RoW business. As time passes and the scale of RoW business increases, that should be another trigger for margin improvement
Company will be launching Mirabegron ( used to treat over active bladder ) in US in FY 27 as per their agreement with the innovator
IPM breakdown of Acute : Chronic is about 62 : 38. But for Alkem, its about 81 : 19
Company made 2 acquisitions in Q3. First - Adroit Biomed for 140 cr. It’s a derma focussed company. Second - Bombay Ortho for 147 cr. It manufactures Hip and Knee Implants. Both acquisitions should help Alkem grow its domestic business
Company’s domestic business registered a volume growth of 1.5 pc vs 0.5 pc volume growth for IPM in Q3
Company’s Brand PanD ( a GI drug ) registered the highest volume growth among to 20 brands in IPM. It grew volumes by 15 pc YoY. It now commands a 40 pc mkt share in the category
Q4 is generally the weakest Qtr for the company. Plus company is gonna indulge in multiple filings in Q4. Hence the management retained its 19 pc EBITDA margin guidance for full FY 25 vs 21 pc margins clocked in 9M FY 25
Saw 15-20 cr expenses wrt Benzene’s US plant + MedTech’s US plant in Q3. Expecting to see a similar drag in Q4 as well
Company should be among the first wave of players to launch GLP-1 ( Semaglutide ) in India
Company is not compromising on margins in their trade generics business. Hence the overall growth in India business is being moderated ( despite mkt beating growth in Branded Generics )
Company is growing fast in their Pain / Analgesics business. Have not taken price hikes in this segment in order to gain mkt share
US business saw a price erosion of around 5 pc in Q3
Company saw a good sequential recovery in US business in Q3 vs Q2. Should see descent improvement to continue in Q4 as well. Overall, next FY should be better for US business vs CY on the back of newer launches + significantly reduced inventory / stock levels
May see marginal contraction in EBITDA margins in Q4 vs LY because of accelerated R&D expenses and increased Opex from the commercial facilities mentioned above
Have filed 3 products in US in 9M FY 25. Will be filing 5 more products in Q4
Company’s RoW margins are much better than their US margins
Trade generic sales in 9M FY 25 were @ 1378 cr
Company gets an additional field force of 90-100 MRs along with the Adroit Biomed’s business
Company’s preference for inorganic acquisitions shall be in the domestic formulations business in order to utilise the cash on books. Cash on books @ 4700 cr ( aprox )
The max that the company intends to invest in Med Tech over next 3-4 yrs should be around 2000-2500 cr
Company did not disclose what part of Semaglutide manufacturing shall be outsourced / in-house
30 pc of company’s domestic business is under NLEM
Chile is company’s largest RoW mkt
Company intends to maintain R&D spends @ 4.5 - 5 pc of sales
Enzene is likely to do sales of around 300 cr in India in FY 26. Enzene should end FY 25 with sales of around 250-260 cr. Also expecting approvals from a few RoW countries for Enzene’s products
In Q4, company should be able to grow its domestic business by around 10 pc or so on the back of a weak Q4 LY
Disc: holding, biased, inclined to add more after the recent fall, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
U r right
Hero has been milking Splendor, HF Deluxe, Passion and Glamour for quite some time now. What gives me some hope is the recent success of Xtreme 125. So that’s one. Secondly, the Ather business is doing well. Third - with the Intro of new platform for Hero Vida, there r chances that we may see descent uptake there as well. If Ather + Vida can combine and do sales of say 25k + / month in say 12 months from now, Hero may be in a good position ( with sustained pickup in exports + Xtreme )
Lets see. Fingers crossed
3 Likes
Mrs Bector Food Ltd -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Q3 outcomes -
Revenues - 492 cr, up 15 pc YoY
Gross Margins @ 45.1 vs 45.4 pc
EBITDA - 61 cr, up 1 pc YoY ( margins @ 12.5 vs 14.3 pc - margin contraction on account of steep jump in employees and other expenses )
PAT - 35 cr, flat YoY
9M FY 25 outcomes -
Revenues - 1427 cr, up 17 pc YoY
EBITDA - 196 cr, up 7 pc YoY ( margins @ 13.7 vs 15.1 pc - margin contraction on account of steep jump in employee expenses )
PAT - 109 cr, up 2 pc YoY
Q3 segmental revenues -
Biscuits - 308 vs 268 cr, up 15 pc YoY
Bakery - 175 vs 146 cr, up 20 pc YoY
Company’s products are currently available in - JK, HP, Punjab, Haryana, Raj, MP, UP, Bihar. Currently undertaking expansion into Maharashtra and Karnataka
Current manufacturing footprint -
Biscuit plants -
Rajpura ( Punjab )
Phillaur ( Punjab )
Tahliwal ( HP )
Breads and Bun plants -
Greater Noida
Bhiwadi ( Rajasthan )
Khopoli ( Maharashtra )
Bengaluru
Capex Updates -
Added 2 more biscuit lines @ Rajpura in H1 FY 25
New biscuits plant at Dhar ( MP ) is under construction. Should go live in Q1 FY 26
New Bakery unit at Kolkata and Khopoli ( Maharashtra ) should go live in FY 26
RM prices like - Maida, Palm Oil and Cocoa remained elevated in Q3
Launched new premium products on the bakery side - offering no maida, no palm oil variants
Launched and participated in the Gifting segments for the first time in the Q3’s festive season
Also launched baked ( not fried ) snacks in Q3
Raised funds via QIP to the tune of 400 cr in Q3
Rise in other expenses is on account of sharp increase in Exports resulting in higher logistics costs. Plus the Red Sea crisis is keeping the logistics costs elevated in the exports division
Advertising expenses for Cremica ( biscuits ) and English Oven ( bakery ) brands combined @ 3 pc of sales for Q3
Company has taken price hikes in both bakery and biscuits to offset hikes in Palm oils + Maida price hikes. Plus the company has been working aggressively on cost savings, managing gramages etc
See margins coming back to normalised levels by Q1 FY 26 ( on the back of price hikes + cost efficiencies )
The price hikes in biscuits has been about 4-5 pc + 3-4 pc hikes in Bakery segment ( Mix of price hikes + Reduced gramages )
Export part of company’s biscuits business has been doing really well for last 2 yrs ( growing very aggressively ). The Domestic biscuits business has seen strong competitive intensity since Nov 23. However, domestic business has now started to see some volume growth wef Q3 FY 25
Company is aggressively expanding its distribution in Maharashtra + Karnataka so that company is able to effectively utilise its capacities that r slated to come on-stream wef H1 FY 26
Even in North India, company has been constantly expanding its distribution network. Have added 10-15 pc additional outlets where English Oven, Cremica products are now avlb vs 2 yrs back
In Q3, volume growth in domestic business has been in single digits ( vs flattish growth in previous 4 qtrs ). Seeing growth coming back now
Aim to bring EBITDA margins back to 14-15 pc kind of range by Q1 FY 26
Company currently exports to all 6 GCC countries + a number of African countries - under the Cremica Brand umbrella. Company also has a contract manufacturing business where in company supplies to global retailers like - Walmart, Wallgreens, CVS as white label products. Company’s total export business has 50:50 breakup between Branded : White Label sales. Company’s focus on both these businesses shall remain equally sharp
Q2 is always the best Qtr for the company as the company has to service the channel before the festive seasons in both India and International mkts in Q3
Company’s mkt share in the CSD business is at very healthy levels - quite close to the mkt leader
QSR’s portion of revenues @ 33 pc of total bakery segment’s revenues. Company is a mkt leader in this space. Company has also launched the frozen range of products in this space. These new introductions are also helping them grow faster
In Delhi NCR, company is no2 player in the bakery segment. Similarly, company is gaining mkt share rapidly in Punjab and Haryana on the bakery business
Company is ranked among top 2 brands on the Quick Commerce channel. Presently, 20 pc of company’s bakery sales are going from this channel + its the fastest growing channel
Company’s overall mkt share in North India in the biscuits business is @ 5 pc. In Punjab, HP etc, their mkt share is much higher @ 15 pc
Disc: hold a small tracking position, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation, not SEBI registered
6 Likes
Britannia became the brand it is today after decades of growth—it has multiplied 141x in 24 years and remained a household name for the past 15 years.
Mrs. Bector’s Food has the potential to follow a similar path. With India’s FMCG consumption still in its early stages, there’s a long runway ahead!
3 Likes
Zydus Wellness -
Q3 FY 25 results and concall highlights -
Q3 outcomes -
Revenues - 450 vs 400 cr, up 13 pc
Gross margins @ 47.7 vs 47.7 pc - flat YoY
EBITDA - 14.8 vs 12.7 cr ( margins @ 3.2 vs 3.1 pc )
PAT - 6.4 vs 0.3 cr
In Q3, Company acquired Naturell India ( healthy snacking company ) for a cash consideration of 390 cr. Q3 results include 1M revenues from Naturell India
9M FY 25 results -
Revenues - 1780 vs 1537 cr, up 16 pc
Gross Margins @ 51.3 vs 49 pc
EBITDA - 190 vs 146 cr, up 30 pc ( margins @ 10.6 vs 9.4 pc )
PAT - 175 vs 116 cr, up 50 pc
Company’s EverYouth Peel Offs and Scrubs have gained 2.24 and 3.18 pc mkt share respectively ( over last 2 yrs ). EverYouth continues to be ranked no 1 in peel offs and scrubs mkt. EverYouth is ranked no 5 in facial cleaning mkt
Nutralite brand of products have grown in double digits consecutively for last 4 yrs
Complan has gained aprox 0.7 pc mkt share over last 4 yrs ( Mkt Share @ 4.1 pc )
GluconD continues to be the mkt leader and the fastest growing player in its addressable mkt ( Mkt Share @ 59 pc )
Nycil has gained 4.55 pc mkt share in last 4 yrs
Sugar Free continues to be mkt leader in sugar substitutes with 95.4 pc mkt share. Sugar Free green continues to grow in double digits - consecutively for last 7 Qtrs
Launched Sugar Free D’Lite cookies in Indian Mkts in Q2. Seeing good consumer response
ImLite - Sugar ( Stevia + normal Sugar ) also continues to receive positive feedback from the mkt
Urban demand remained sluggish in Q3. Rural demand was much better
Q3 volume growth @ 5 pc
Naturell’s business is currently operating at break even EBITDA levels
Foods and Nutrition business - comprising of - Glucon D + SugarFree + Nutralite + Complan + ImLite + MaxProtien + RiteBite - grew by 9 pc in Q3 ( RiteBite and MaxProtien are Naturell India’s brands )
Personal care business comprising of EverYouth + Nycil grew strongly @ 50 pc YoY in Q3
Nutralite DoodhShakti launched Cheese in Q3
GMs held steady despite inflationary pressures
Company intends to reach 17 pc kind of EBITDA margins ( on an annualised basis ). Company intends to achieve the same within next 2 yrs. One obvious lever that the company has is to temper its advertisement spends which were elevated post the acquisition of Heinz’s brands (ie FY 22 onwards)
Guiding for a double digit topline growth for FY 26 with EBITDA growth > topline growth
Naturell India’s brands should be able to clock double digit EBITDA levels wef FY 26 ( as their brands get integrated and their distribution expands under Zydus Wellness )
Nutralite is doing well in fat spreads + Mayonese - in the HoReCa segments ( basically a B2B business ). Additionally, Nutralite is doing well in CSD channel
Launch of Amul Delicious is the proof that Nutralite is able to develop a descent mkt for fat spreads ( having lower fat content, higher veg oil content ) away from normal dairy fat spreads
5-7 yrs back, Nutralite was only a fat spreads brand. Over the years, company has also launched Mayonnaise, Chocolate spreads, Ghee and Butter under the Nutralite brand
SugarFree chocolates and cookies are another area where the company can capture large mkt share - if the category clicks
Complan is present in a low growth / mature mkt. It’s also a big brand for the company. Because of this, the overall growth of Foods and Nutrition business of the company is not able to grow at faster rates
Company is planning to take up price hikes in all categories where they r seeing RM inflation
About 10-11 pc of company’s revenues come from EComm + QuickComm spaces. These 2 channels are growing @ much faster rates
Company has shifted its focus from normal advertising channels to digital advertising channels
Disc: holding, biased, added recently, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
2 Likes