Ranvir's Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
1116

Popular Vehicles and Service Ltd -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Company profile -

Company Operates sales and service dealerships of - Maruti Suzuki Arena, Honda, JLR, Tata Motors - commercial, Bharat Benz, Piaggio and Ather electric

Brand wise number of showrooms operated by the company -

Maruti Suzuki - 20
Honda - 8
JLR - 2
Tata Motors Commercial - 13
Bharat Benz - 8
Piaggio - 7
Ather - 3

Brand wise number of Service centers operated by the company -

Maruti Suzuki - 74
Honda - 10
JLR - 3
Tata Motors Commercial - 27
Bharat Benz - 18
Piaggio - 7
Ather - 3

In addition, company operates 32 outlets for sale / purchase of second hand cars. Company also deals in auto spare parts distribution in the states of Kerala and Karnataka through its network of 44 warehouses and 24 retail outlets. Company also distributes motor insurance policies

FY 24 outcomes -

Sales - 5616 vs 4875 cr ( last 3 yrs CAGR @ 25 pc )
EBITDA - 286 vs 235 cr ( margins @ 5.1 vs 4.8 pc, last 3 yr CAGR @ 18 pc )
PAT - 76 vs 64 cr ( last 3 yrs CAGR @ 33 pc )

Segment Wise sales , last 3 yr CAGR -

Sale of new Cars + CVs - 4152 cr , growing at 10 pc ( PV sales @ 3307 cr, CV sales @ 1954 cr, EV sales @ 85 cr )

Service and repair works - 865 cr, growing at 26 pc

Spare Parts Distribution business - 263 cr, growing @ 26 pc

Sale of second hand cars - 358 cr, growing at 13 pc

PV segment break down -

Sale of cars / 2 wheelers - 2700 cr
Service and Repairs - 634 cr

PV segment EBITDA - 198 cr ( EBITDA from sales @ 70 cr, EBITDA for service and repairs @ 128 cr )

Segment Wise EBITDA contribution -

Repair and Services - 56 pc ( high volume, high margin )
Sale of new vehicles - 38 pc ( high volume, low margin )
Pre-Owned vehicles - 3 pc ( high volume, opportunistic business )
Distribution of spare parts - 3 pc ( high volume, avg margins )

State Wise revenues -

Kerala - 74 pc
Non Kerala - 36 pc
Aim to make this 50:50 in next 2 yrs

Company raised 230 cr via IPO. Have already used 192 cr towards debt reduction

Looking to grow both organically ( in under- served areas ) and inorganically ( with OEMs consent )

Company sold a total of aprox 29.3 k Maruti Suzuki cars and 8.7 k Tata CVs in FY 24. Total Maruti Suzuki cars serviced in FY 24 @ 7.3 lakh and Tata CVs serviced stood at 1.01 lakh CVs ( these are only new car sales )

Aim to add - 03 showrooms for new cars, 03 for pre-owned cars, 04 new retail outlets for spare parts and 16 new service centers in FY 25. May go for inorganic expansion over and above this

More than new sales, company has greater focus on Vehicle service and repairs. That’s where the margins are really healthy

Company expects Maruti Arena sales to pick up in May - post new Swift’s launch. Expecting Honda sales to pick up in the festive season post the new Amaze launch

Avg Capex required to open a new car showroom is aprox 3 cr + aprox 10 cr of Inventory. Avg ROCE per new sales store is around 15 pc vs 30 pc for a service only store

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

1 Like
1117

Ranvir, are you still into gujarat pipavav, have you had a chance to study latest volumes from dedicated freight corridors ?

1118

No… I ve sold out :grimacing: :grimacing:

1119

Yatharth Hospitals -

Q4 and FY 24 highlights -

Company’s portfolio of Hospitals -

Noida - 250 beds, 81 ICU
Greater Noida - 400 beds, 112 ICU
Noida Extension - 450 beds, 125 ICU
Faridabad - 200 beds, 61 ICU ( acquired in Feb 24, commenced operations in May 24 )
Jhansi-Orchha - 305 beds, 76 ICU ( acquired in 2022 )

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 670 vs 478 cr, up 29 pc
EBITDA - 179 vs 135 cr, up 35 pc ( margins @ 27 vs 28 pc )
PAT - 114 vs 66 cr, up 74 pc ( due to steep fall in interest cost post IPO fundraise )

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 177 vs 144 cr, up 24 pc
EBITDA - 47 vs 38 cr, up 21 pc ( margins @ 26 vs 27 pc )
PAT - 38 vs 17 cr, up 121 pc ( due interest cost falling to zero post receipt of IPO proceeds )

Cash on Books @ 238 cr
Debt on Books @ 84 cr - mainly came from acquisition of Faridabad Hospital acquisition

Hospital wise Revenue breakup for FY 24 -

Noida - 185 vs 172 cr, ARPOB @ 26.5k

Greater Noida - 234 vs 199 cr, ARPOB @ 28.9k

Noida Extension - 214 vs 135 cr, ARPOB @ 33.9k

Jhansi - Orchha - 36 vs 13 cr, ARPOB @ 17.4k

Faridabad - went live in Q1 FY 25

International patients remains a key focus area for the company. Have operationalised a dedicated International patients floor and launch at Noida Extension facility. Setting up an additional infrastructure of 200 beds specifically focusing on International patients at their Greater Noida facility. Their doctors are going to countries in Africa, CIS to do OPD consults and attract patients from these regions

Aim to keep acquiring 1 hospital / yr for next 3 yrs to keep the company’s growth engine running. Will use moderate amount of debt, cash on books, internal accruals for the same. Company’s areas of interest include - UP, Haryana and MP Mkts

Company level occupancy @ 55 pc ( FY 24 ending ) - indicating significant headroom for operating leverage to kick in ( specifically at Jhansi-Orchha, Faridabad and Noida extension facilities. Noida + Greater Noida are already running @ 89 and 67 pc occupancy levels )

Consolidated Hospital level ARPOB @ 28.8k, up 8 pc YoY

Govt business @ 40 pc of topline - this is a key matrix to monitor. This also results in high receivables. Company is in talks with various Govt Depts for release of funds. The situation should ease up post the elections

Both Noida, Faridabad - have good catchment areas from neighbouring areas of Western UP, Haryana

Company has on-boarded some well known, reputed doctors for its new Faridabad Hospital

Expect to do a revenue and EBITDA growth of 20 pc + and 30 pc + for FY 25,26

Brownfield Capex lis ined up for Greater Noida + Noida Extension hospitals in next 2-3 yrs. Should cost around Rs 60 lakh / Bed ( So … for a combined addition of 300 - 400 beds at these two hospitals, company may end up spending around 180 - 240 cr )

As the company’s occupancy levels increase, the share of Govt business should steadily come down

Avg private insurance rates are lower than cash rates by aprox 15 - 20 pc. Avg Govt rates are lower than cash rates by aprox 25-30 pc

Company expects that in medium term ( 2-3 yrs ), share of revenues from International patients should cross 10 pc

Also expect a rapid ramp up at the Faridabad facility

Disc: initiated a tracking position, biased, not SEBI registered

3 Likes
1120

Garware Hi Tech Films -

Q4 and FY 24 highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 446 vs 349 cr, up 28 pc
EBITDA - 89 vs 70 cr, up 27 pc ( margins @ 20.1 vs 20.2 pc )
PAT - 57 vs 43 cr, up 34 pc

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 1677 vs 1438 cr, up 16 pc
EBITDA - 321 vs 269 cr, up 19 pc ( margins @ 19.1 vs 18.7 pc )
PAT - 203 vs 166 cr, up 22 pc

EBITDA growth in FY 24 and Q4 driven primarily by increased sales of Sun Protection Films ( SPFs ) and Paint Protection Films ( PPFs) driven by extensive marketing and sales initiatives. SPFs, PPFs are higher margin segments for the company. However, the industrial products division ( IPD ) was muted in FY 24

**Company’s business segments - **

Consumer products division ( CPD ) -

Auto - Sun Control Films
Architectural - Sun Control Films
Paint Protection Films
Safety films
All these are value added products

CPD - constitutes 65 pc of company’s business

Industrial Products division ( IPD ) -

Value added products -

Shrink Films ( contributes 10 pc of company sales )
Electrical / Electronic Insulators
Release liners

Insulators + release lines contribute to 14 pc of company’s sales

Commodity products ( within IPD segment ) -

Thermal lamination
Plain Films
Packaging Films

These commodity products contributed to 11 pc of company’s sales

Launched titanium PPF with lifetime warranty

Launched new architectural films - DecoVista and Spectra

Expanding their PPF network / Garware Application Studios ( GAS ) to tier 2 cities ( total count now @ 120 + ). Now present in Lucknow, Belgaum, Goa etc. Aim to take the GAS + PPF distributor numbers to 200 in next 2 yrs

Company’s PPF is currently available in 650 dealerships. Aim to take this beyond 900 in next 2 yrs

Completed some new projects in FY 24 - Central Bank of Brazil, Biggest mall in Mohali, renowned developed in Pune for their residential projects ( for their SPFs )

89 pc of FY24’s revenue came from value added products ie - SPF + PPF + Shrink Films vs 80 pc in FY 23 ( rest comes from commodity films )

Company’s SCF manufacturing is completely backward integrated ( only company in the world to achieve this ). Company’s brands for these films are among top 3 brands in US+EU.
Also, Company is the sole producer of premium PPFs in India

Higher sales of premium/luxury cars in India is a huge tailwind for company’s PPF business. Current adoption rates in India are around 1 pc vs >10 pc for US, China

Company putting up a new PPF line with capacity of 3 lakh sq ft / yr. This is likely to go commercial by Q2 FY 26. Seeing strong demand in PPF segment. Total capex requirements for this should be around 150-160 cr

SPF sales in Q4 @ 185 cr vs last few Qtr’s avg of 150 cr or so. SPF sales momentum should continue as the overstocking related issues are now behind in US + EU mkts

PPF sales in Q4 @ 110 cr. For FY 24, PPF sales @ 450. Company is in advanced discussions with various customers in developed Mkts to sell company’s PPFs. Should see good breakthroughs going fwd

In the domestic mkt, company sees most of the growth to be driven by SPFs in Architectural segment. PPF segment should also continue to do well

Aim to hit 2600 cr of revenues in FY 26. Company believes, its on track to achieve the same

Company is seeing very good response from various automotive dealers from tier 2 cities
( like Lucknow, Kanpur, Raipur etc ) to take up franchise of GAS ( Garware application studios ). On an avg, GAS studios are doing PPF work on 15-20 cars per month per studio

@ penetration levels of 1.5 pc, company already has a ready addressable mkt of 60,000 new cars per yr for its PPF products ( in India ). With increased car sales and increasing penetration of people opting for PPF, this addressable mkt should keep increasing every year for a long time to come. For high end cars, PPF work costs upto 1-2 lakh per car

Company also does PPF work directly with Automotive OEMs

Domestic : Export sales breakup @ 20 : 80

40 - 50 pc of PPF + SPF exports by the company are under Garware’s own brands, rest are contract manufactured for other players

Garware has trained over 700 applicators across India for application of their PPF. These films are quite expensive and their application is an extremely specialised kind of Job

Company’s liquidity position is extremely comfortable. May even go in for inorganic opportunities to utilise the cash on books

Will continue to spend aggressively towards marketing and promotional events / ads - to grow the domestic business

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

4 Likes
1121

Technocraft Industries -

Q4 and FY 24 concall and results updates -

Company’s Business segments, FY 24 revenues, EBIT margins -

Drum Closures - 543 vs 534 cr YoY, operated @ 34 vs 30 pc EBIT margins YoY

Scaffolding and Formwork - 1032 vs 889 cr YoY, operated at 18 vs 26 pc EBIT margins YoY. This is likely to reverse in FY 25

Manufacturing of Cotton Yarn, Fabric and Garments - 491 vs 534 cr YoY, operated at (-)4 pc vs (-) 7 pc EBIT margins YoY

Engineering and Design Services - 198 vs 135 cr YoY, operated at 19 vs 20 pc EBIT margins YoY

Company’s new Aluminium extrusion and fabrication plant at Aurangabad with a capacity of 17,500 MT and 6 lakh Sq Mar has gone live in Mar 24. As this facility ramps up, results from this plant should be visible in FY 25 ( in Q4 - basically, full effects will be visible in FY 26 ). Total capex required here should be around 280-300 cr. This should result in incremental revenues of 400-500 cr for the company ( most likely in FY 26 - after the full ramp up )

Seeing strong demand uptick in the Scaffolding and Formwork business from US, Middle East and Indian Mkts in Q1. Company is ramping up capacity to meet the increased demand. Expecting further acceleration in Indian demand after the election uncertainty is over

Sustainable EBITDA margins in Scaffolding are around 20 pc and 15 pc for Formwork

Company has shifted most of their Textiles business from Mumbai to Aurangabad. Aurangabad is a low cost destination wrt doing business. Plus there is a global recovery ( post COVID led overstocking ) in the Textiles business. Company feels that a turnaround in their textiles business should only be around the corner

Most of company’s Scaffolding exports are targeted at US ( 90 pc of exports ) vs only 10 pc of exports to Europe. Company lacks a key certification that’s required to sell in Europe. If that certification comes through in next 3-4 months, company can ramp up their European business as well. If this happens, the EU business can be as big as their US business

Also expecting descent growth to continue in the engineering and design business

Company has not even started tapping the export demand for Aluminium formwork from geographies like - Africa, LATAM. Will venture out there once the new Aurangabad facility comes fully on stream

Guiding for a topline growth of > 20 pc for FY 25 and FY 26. Also guiding for an EBITDA margin of 19-20 pc for FY 25

Other players are also putting up Aluminium formwork capacities in India. However, the demand is outpacing the supply. Also, Technocraft is one of the few companies that are also backward integrating into Aluminium Extrusions. This should give them a competitive advantage

Company has also entered into plastic drum closure business. Margins here are similar to steel drum closures. Also, the application areas of steel and plastic drum closures are completely different

Company has developed a special device used to cool down the seeker head of Air-Air, Surface - Air missiles (cools it down below (-) 150 degrees within seconds). Company is the sole Indian Producer for this device. Supplies should start shortly. Although wrt company’s size, this may ( at present ) not be a big revenue driver

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

1 Like
1122

SEAMEC Ltd -

Q4 and FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 239 vs 124 cr, up 92 pc

EBITDA - 90 vs 25 cr, up 253 pc ( margins @ 37 vs 21 pc )

PAT - 52 vs (-) 5 cr

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 758 vs 457 cr

EBITDA - 271 vs 146 cr ( margins @ 36 vs 32 pc )

PAT - 120 vs 34 cr

Gross Debt @ 234 cr

Net Debt ( gross debt - cash ) @ 34 cr

Company profile -

Owns and operates 05 state of the art DSV
( offshore - Diving support vehicles used to support offshore work like - maintenance and inspection of mobile platforms, pipelines etc ) and 03 OSV ( these are also used to support offshore work ) and 02 Bulk Carriers ( used to carry dry bulk cargo like - coal, iron ore, grains etc )

Services provided by the company -

IMR ( inspection, maint, repair ) Operations - for Sub Sea infra
ROV ( remotely operated vehicles ) - facilitating safe and unmanned sub sea operations where human presence is unviable
Sub-Sea construction
Sub Sea fire fighting
Sub Sea pollution control

Major clients -

ONGC
L&T
POSH
MERMAID
ZAMIL
James Fisher
Kreuz Subsea

Current Portfolio of vessels -

DSVs, Gross Tonnage, Year of procurement -

Seamec - II, 4503, 1993
Seamec - III, 4327, 1993
Seamec - Princess, 11121, 2006
Seamec - Paladin, 5648, 2021
Seamec - Swordfish, 5732, 2023

OSVs, Gross Tonnage, Year of procurement -

Seamec - Diamond, 1922, 2024 ( acquired in Apr 24. Deployed with ONGC for 3 yrs @ $ 8750 / day. That translates to aprox 16-18 Cr / yr … assuming 270 days of deployment )
Seamec - Glorious, 8950, 2021
Seamec - Pearl - Delivery expected in June 24 ( again expected to be deployed with ONGC at similar rates as Diamond )
Delivery of another OSV - Nusantara - is expected in Sep 25

Bulk Carriers, Gross Tonnage, Year of procurement -

Seamec - Gallant, 32289, 2017
Seamec - Asian Pearl, 27989, 2020

Improved EBITDA margins are due to deployment of newer vessels ( Paladin and Swordfish ), higher deployment days and increased rates

Both the bulk carriers - Gallant, Asian Pearl are operated under the company’s subsidiaries

The DSV/OSV work has much higher margins due to the specialised nature of work vs margins earned by Bulk carriers

Company expects the hiring rates for its vessels to remain firm for next 2-3 yrs

Company has sold one of its vessels - Seamec - Nidhi ( a bulk carrier ) for a consideration of $ 10 million. It was a loss making vessel and was dragging down the company’s consolidated results. This should lead to a further improvement in company’s consolidated margins / results

Business has an inbuilt seasonality - Q1, Q2 are weaker due monsoons

Capex planned for next 3 yrs combined @ 700 cr - mostly for procurement of newer vessels. All of this is likely to be funded via internal accruals

Company maintains a working capital cycle of 80-90 days

Disc: initiated a tracking position, not SEBI registered, biased

2 Likes
1123

Wonderla Holidays -

Q4 and FY 24 highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 99 vs 98 cr
Adjusted EBITDA - 42 vs 56 cr, down 26 pc ( margins @ 40 vs 50 pc, addition of new employees for Bhuvneshwar park and salary hikes contributed to margin decline )
PAT - 22 vs 35 cr, down 35 pc
ARPU @ Rs 1349 vs 1184
Footfalls @ 7.09 vs 8.04 lakh

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 483 vs 429 cr, up 13 pc
Adjusted EBITDA - 251 vs 235 cr, up 7 pc ( margins @ 50 vs 52 pc )
PAT - 158 vs 148 cr, up 6 pc
ARPU @ Rs 1430 vs 1243, up 15 pc
Footfalls @ 32.5 vs 33.1 lakh, down 2 pc

Park wise footfalls for FY 24 -

Bengaluru - 12.7 vs 12.04 lakh
Kochi - 10.33 vs 11.39 lakh
Hyderabad - 9.49 vs 9.67 lakh

New Park near Bhuvneshwar to open for public wef 24 May 24. This will contribute 36 days of revenues for the company. This park should be a key growth driver for FY 25

New Park near Chennai to be operationalised in next FY by end of Q2, beginning of Q3. Chennai park is going to be twice in Size vs that of Bhuvneshwar Park

Company believes that drop in footfalls in Q4 were led by advancement in some examination dates @ both school and colleges. Also Q4 LY was strong due to a post COVID bounce

Don’t see much footfall growth in Bengaluru, Kochi in FY 25. Do see some growth in Hyderabad ( low double digits ). Looking at 8-10 pc ARPU growth from these three parks

On a conservative basis - Bhuvneshwar park should clock 4 lakh kind of footfalls @ ARPU of around Rs 900. That translates into an additional revenue of 36 cr or so for FY 25

Looking at Gujarat, PB, UP and MP to open new parks. Will sign definitive agreements post elections. Aim to keep opening a new Park every FY for next 3-4 yrs

May end up raising both debt and equity in case going for aggressive expansion

Expecting Bhuvneshwar park to be EBITDA positive wef FY 25

Company depreciates its equipment and machinery installed in the Parks over a period of 10 yrs

Company ensures a high degree of differentiation wrt the rides / experiences among its parks

Disc: added a tracking position, not SEBI registered, Biased

2 Likes
1124

JB Chemicals -

Q4 and FY 24 concall and results highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 862 vs 762 cr, up 13 pc
Gross Margins @ 65.2 vs 63.9 pc
EBITDA - 198 vs 164 cr ( margins @ 23 vs 21 pc )
PAT - 126 vs 88 cr

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 3484 vs 3149 cr, up 11 pc
Gross Margins @ 66.1 vs 62.9 pc ( big improvement )
EBITDA - 897 vs 696 cr ( margins @ 26 vs 22 pc )
PAT - 553 vs 410 cr

Gross Debt @ 357 cr vs 548 cr YoY
Cash on Books @ 464 cr. Company is now net debt free

Capex of FY 24 @ 135 cr - expansion of lozenges manufacturing facility @ Daman

Domestic Business - revenues @ 1897 cr, grew by 17 pc YoY. Company now ranks 22 in the IPM. Excluding the acquired Opthal portfolio ( from Novartis ), the company’s domestic business grew by 11 pc. Opthal portfolio clocked revenues of 16 cr + for Mar 24

Brand Wise sales ( top brands ) -

Cilacar & Variants - 600 cr +
Metrogyl and variants - 300 cr +
Rantac - 400 cr +
Nicardia - 170 cr +
Sporolac - 120 cr + ( last 3 yr CAGR @ 33 pc )
Azmarda - 70 cr +
MR productivity @ 7 vs 6.2 lakh / month YoY

International Business - Revenues @ 1587, grew by 5 pc. Formulation sales @ 1069 cr, CMO sales @ 432 cr, API sales @ 86 cr

Guiding for an EBITDA margin of 26-28 pc for FY 25 vs the earlier guidance of 25-27 pc

Guiding for a high teen growth in CMO business in H2 FY 25. Should do 10-12 pc growth in H1 in CMO business. Should commercialise their new - Immunity Boosting, Melatonin and Pain Killer lozenges in FY 25. This is a high entry barrier, long gestation period business

Company believes they can achieve high growth rates in the newly acquired Opthal Portfolio. These brands were previously under leveraged and under invested. Company has also taken the MR count in this division from 75 to 105

Company should be able to grow its topline in the high teens in FY 25

Company is still open to acquiring more brands to keep the growth momentum going

Aim to do 180-200 cr topline from the acquired Opthal business in FY 25

Company doesn’t face any Chinese competition wrt its Lozenges - CMO business

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

1 Like
1125

Dear @ranvir

Thank you for analysing a large number of companies and posting it for benefit of wider community.

Would you be able to give an update of your current portfolio and any exits/entry since last porfolio update? Which companies you recently invested based most recent quarter results or commentary?

Thank you once again.

1126

Alkem Labs -

Key highlights from FY 24 -

Continues to rank no 1 in Anti Infectives, No 2 in Vit/Min space in India

India business contributes to 68 pc of sales, grew by 5.4 pc

US business contributes to 21 pc of sales, grew by 10 pc

Rest comes from RoW mkts ( LATAM, Australia, EU ), grew strongly at 33 pc

Cash on Books @ 3550 cr

Anti-Infectives mkts were sluggish throughout FY 24, which affected company’s India performance. However, the company continued to do well in Anti-Diabetic, GI, Vit/Minerals and Derma therapies

Lesser pricing pressures in US and descent volume growth in US + RoW business helped improve overall gross margins. Company believes that the worst of pricing pressures in the US business should now be behind

Company’s domestic biosimilar business ( under its Subsidiary - ENZENE ), with 7 brands continues to ramp up well

Aim to grow revenues by 10 pc in FY 25 with stable gross and EBITDA margins ( with an upward bias )

Capex lined up for FY 25 @ around 600 cr

Expecting the anti-invectives mkt to pick up in FY 25 ( as FY 24 was exceptionally weak for this segment ). If this happens, company may outperform its guidance

30 pc of company’s India products are under NLEM

Company has the largest trade generics business in the country. At the same time, the branded generics business continues to do well. Company believes, both can do well simultaneously

As the company’s chronic business ramps up in India, Margins should improve further over the medium term

Launched 3 new products in US in FY 24. Going to launch 6 new products in US in FY 25

Expect to maintain 4.5 of sales as R&D expenses going fwd

Setting up a Bio-Similars plant in US under its Bio-Similars subsidiary - ENZENE. It’s mainly going to engage in contract manufacturing operations. Expect it to contribute meaningfully from FY 27. Capex required here should be around 400 cr

MR productivity for the company is 4.5 lakh / month. On the chronic business side, its about 3.5 lakh / month - clearly there is a lot of headroom to improve the productivity here

Company’s share of Chronic business is low at present @ 18 pc. There is a huge scope of improvement here. Expect it to cross 20 pc in next 2-3 yrs

Total MR strength for the company is around 12000

Trade generics contribute to around 20 pc of company’s India business

Company is working on another 5 biosimilars to be launched in India under its subsidiary - ENZENE

Cash on books - in all likelihood to be used to inorganic acquisitions - specially in the Chronic segment. Actively looking out for the same

Company is setting up a new business division - to manufacture medical devices. Will update investors as the business goes commercial. Focus here will be on the domestic Mkts to begin with

Disc: holding, Biased, Not SEBI registered

1 Like
1127

I ll post the details later ( due paucity of time ). However, in this otherwise richly valued Mkt some ideas that one may look at include -

Popular Vehicles and Services ( a largely stable business operating dealerships for sales and service of Maruti Suzuki - PV/CVs, Ather EVs, Piaggio EVs, JLR, Bharat Benz and Tata Motors CVs)

Branded Pharma names like - Alkem, Ajanta

Insecticides India ( Company likely to see an earnings upturn after bad FY 23 + 24 )

SEAMEC Ltd - likely to see an uptick in order flow and utilisation levels wef FY 25

Yatharth Hospitals - trading at not so expensive valuations vs peers

Advanced Enzymes - guiding for a margin expansion going into FY 25, 26. Their margins are already quite healthy

Windlas Bio, Innova Captab - may see a lot of contract manufacturing business coming their way

One can have a look at these

Disc: these r just my views, I am biased, Not SEBI registered, have bought them recently

7 Likes
1128

Ajanta Pharma -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Q4 Outcomes -

Revenues - 1054 vs 882 cr, up 20 pc
EBITDA - 278 vs 149 cr, up 26 pc ( margins @ 26 vs 17 pc )
PAT - 203 vs 122 cr, up 66 pc

FY 24 Outcomes -

Revenues - 4209 vs 3743 cr, up 12 pc
EBITDA - 1172 vs 783 cr, up 50 pc ( margins @ 28 vs 22 pc )
PAT - 816 vs 588 cr, up 39 pc

R&D spends @ 208 cr, @ 5 pc of sales. Expected to maintain R&D spends at similar levels for FY 25 as well

Sales breakup for FY 24 -

India branded sales @ 1308 cr, up 11 pc ( company is present across 4 segments - Opthal, Cardiac, Pain Management and Derma. Outperformed IPM in all segments except Cardiac ). Out of this, trade generics contributed to 160 cr of sales. Launched 14 new products in IPM

Asia branded sales @ 1057 cr, up 10 pc ( spread across ME, SE Asia, Central Asia ). Launched 18 new products in Asian Mkts

Africa branded sales @ 585 cr, up 5 pc. Launched 9 new products in Africa. Due to inventory rationalisation by distributors, primary sales were hit. Confident of clocking mid teen sales growth in FY 25

US generics sales @ 964 cr, up 16 pc. Reduced price erosions and lower API prices acted as tailwinds for US business. Expect mid single digits growth in FY 25. Company’s 02 facilities supplying to US cleared US FDA inspection with zero observations in FY 24

Africa institutional sales @ 249 cr, up 31 pc. This business is tender based and is unpredictable
( basically sales of anti-malarial generics )

Company announced a buyback worth 350 cr @ Rs 2770 / share

Added 200 new MRs in India

Gross Margins @ 75 pc for both Q4 and FY 24

Might see some increase in logistics costs in FY 25 due Red Sea crisis

Expect mid teens topline growth in FY 25 in Asia + Africa branded mkts. Expect low double digit growth in India business

Capex for FY 24 stood at 160 cr. For FY 25, capex expected @ 180-200 cr

Expected to maintain 28 pc kind of EBITDA margins for FY 25 as well. If Red Sea crisis doesn’t intensify, there may be some upside to the margins ( 100 bps type expansion )

Don’t expect aggressive price erosions in US business in FY 25 ( should only be in single digits ). A lot of drug shortages have started to appear in the US generics mkt which is an indicator of better pricing environment

75-80 pc of company’s Asia business is in the Chronic therapies. This is very sticky business

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

2 Likes
1129

Request you to expand a little on Advanced Enzymes. Already holding since Jan 2024.

The company has enormous potential and decent execution, but something is holding it back from becoming lets say the Sun Pharma of Enzyme space (I know it is not a 1-1 comparison but to highlight scale it can do in its space)

Or is it a matter of time and I am not seeing it.

Thanks

1130

In my personal opinion, it should only be a matter of time before company ( Advanced Enzymes ) starts growing in a handsome fashion. I guess, we should remain patient for some more time

2 Likes
1131

Thanks. This looks more of long term hold to me but in a roaring bull market holding these types of stocks is tough.

1132

CCL products -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 727 vs 520 cr
EBITDA - 118 vs 113 cr
PAT - 65 vs 85 cr ( due higher interest and depreciation charges )

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 2654 vs 2071 cr
EBITDA - 445 vs 400 cr
PAT - 250 vs 269 cr ( due higher interest and depreciation charges )

Current Debt @ 1620 cr

Company is one of the largest private label coffee manufacturers in the world. Currently exporting to over 90 countries

A total of 04 Manufacturing facilities -

Duggirala, AP
Kuvvakoli, AP
Switzerland Plant
DakLak, Vietnam

Domestic business sales @ 320 vs 250 cr YoY. Out of this, 210 cr was branded business and 110 was private label business. Branded business grew by 40 pc in FY 24. Aim to grow @ > 30 pc for FY 25 as well

Full FY 24 volume growth @ 14 pc

Guiding for a volume growth of 18-20 pc for next 2-3 yrs

Coffee prices continued to remain at all time highs in Q4 which made new customer acquisition a big challenge. Also, it deterred the existing customer to get into long term contracts. Company hopes that as the Indonesian, Ugandan and Brazilian crop comes in, prices may moderate

Company believes that the current coffee prices ( at record highs ) are untenable and are likely to correct

Currently running at max capacity utilisation in India and around 60-65 pc utilisation in Vietnam

Aim to grow India branded sales by 30-40 pc in FY 25. In South India, Company’s brands have already reached 4 pc mkt share

Company had acquired 02 coffee brands in UK - Percol ( about 1 pc mkt share in UK ) and Rocket Fuel. Currently revamping their packaging and graphics for a re-launch. Also looking to take these brands to some other geographies

Despite the record high coffee prices, not seeing any demand moderation at the end consumer level. This gives the company the confidence that they should be able to clock the high teens volume growth that they are guiding for

Looking to enter newer export markets markets as more manufacturing capacities come on-stream

High coffee prices are causing the smaller players in the Industry to go through extremely tough times. Company keeps getting sell out proposals from smaller players on a frequent basis because of such tough operating environment Company hasn’t acted on them because their organic additional capacity is coming on stream in Vietnam in Sep-Oct 24

Out of a total debt of 1600 cr, 1000 cr is short term debt to fund the working capital requirements. Since this working capital is against firm orders, hence the company is not worried about high debt levels

Once the Vietnam Freeze Dried capacity comes on stream in Sep-Oct 24, company will hit 77k MT of capacity.

Current capacity ( post the expansion in India which was completed in Mar 24 ) stands at 71k MT

Post that, company won’t need to invest in incremental capex for next 2-3 Yrs

Once this facility comes up, company will start targeting LATAM mkts more aggressively. Previously they were capacity constrained and were going slow on expansion into newer geographies

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

5 Likes
1133

RACL Geartech -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Company’s product profile includes transmission gears and shafts, sub assemblies, precision machined parts, chassis parts and Industrial gears

Company has 02 manufacturing facilities in India ( Gajraula and Noida ) and 03 warehouses in Europe

Q4 outcomes -

Sales - 115 vs 96 cr
EBITDA - 24 vs 23 cr
PAT - 8.5 vs 9.5 cr

FY 24 outcomes -

Sales - 433 vs 367 cr
Gross Margins @ 71 vs 70 cr
EBITDA - 101 vs 90 cr
PAT - 40 vs 37 cr

Company has 22 active customers for its products ( globally )

Company has been awarded Tier - 1 supplier status by a premium German car manufacturer for manufacture and supply of parking lock mechanisms. Mass production for this is expected to start in Feb 26

Company lost some business in FY24 due mismatch in Gear Grinding capacity. The same has now been rectified. Gear grinding is one of the most important part of their manufacturing process

Company is targeting a revenue of 550 cr for FY 25. That’s almost 30 pc growth from 433 cr topline it clocked in FY 24

Company has strong relationship with ZF group. In coming years, revenues from supplies to ZF group should contribute Double digit revenues for the company

Disc: hold a small tracking position, looking out for improvements in Quarterly results before adding, not SEBI registered, biased

1 Like
1134

XPRO India -

Q4 and FY 24 results highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Sales - 128 vs 124 cr
EBITDA - 16.8 vs 19.3 cr ( margins @ 13.1 vs 15.5 cr )
PAT - 12.4 vs 4.3 cr ( due exceptionally high tax rate in Q4 LY )

FY 24 outcomes -

Sales - 465 vs 511 cr
EBITDA - 66 cs 74 cr ( margins @ 14.2 vs 14.6 pc )
PAT - 44 vs 45 cr

Company raised 140 cr by issuing 14.35 lakh warrants @ 975 per warrant. Out of these, 1.05 lakh warrants were issued to promoter linked entities. These warrants entail 35 pc upfront payment and remaining 65 pc within 18 months

Company also raised an additional 150 cr by issuing 13.62 lakh shares to Institutional buyers @ Rs 1101 per share

Company’s products -

Dielectric / Capacitor films - Company is the only manufacturer of Di-electric films in India catering to 33 pc of country’s requirements. These films are used as the di-electric medium in new age capacitors. Company intends to double its dielectric film manufacturing capacity in FY 25 and triple its manufacturing capacity before end of FY 26. These are difficult to make, require exceptional in house skilling and the process in capital intensive. No one in India except XPRO has been able to make them

Company can make Dielectric films with thickness varying from 3 to 15 microns. Lower the thickness, higher the complexity in manufacturing them

Coex Sheets - used as sheets / liners in refrigeration industry. Here also, company is a mkt leader with most white goods makers as their clients

Cast films - used in tyre and tread industry, conveyer belting industry, in making sanitary pads, diapers, surgical drapes, packaging industry

Subdued demand for refrigerators resulted in pricing and volume pressures for the company’s Refrigeration liners business in FY 24. The same is expected to reverse in FY 25

Breakdown of sales in FY 24 -

Sale of Di-Electric films @ 145
Sales of Coex sheets + Liners @ 255 cr
Sale of Cast films @ 65 cr

The new capacities of Di-Electric films that the company is putting up will be able to make films with thickness as low as 2 microns ( mkt is moving towards lower thickness films )

The second line ( new one ) of the Di-Electric films should go live in Q3 this yr. The third line is expected to go live in Q3 of next FY

DiElectric films have high end / low end applications. Eg - for a ceiling fan capacitor, the specs required are not very stringent. But the films used in Capacitors used in high end applications like EVs etc are significantly high value and command a pricing premium. Its the higher end films where the company intends to play

EBITDA margins for Di-Electric films is > 40 pc !!!

EBITDA margins for rest of the films is around 5-6 pc !!!

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered

5 Likes
1135

Marico -

Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -

Q4 outcomes -

Revenues - 2278 vs 2240 cr, up 2 pc
EBITDA - 442 vs 393 cr, up 12 pc ( margins @ 19 vs 18 pc )
PAT - 320 vs 305 cr

Domestic volume growth @ 3 pc. International constant currency growth @ 10 pc

FY 24 outcomes -

Revenues - 9653 vs 9764 cr
EBITDA - 2026 vs 1810 cr ( margins @ 21 vs 19 pc - highest ever )
PAT - 1481 vs 1302 cr, up 14 pc

Parachute franchise reported a volume growth of 2 pc in FY 24

Saffola Oils grew volumes in mid-single digits. However, the value decline was 16 pc due steep fall in prices

Value Added Hair Oils ( VAHO ) reported a 7 pc value de-growth in FY 24

Premium personal care products like - Livon, SetWet clocked 300 cr revenue run rate in Q4

Digital first brands like - Beardo, CocoSoul, Just Herbs - clocked 450 cr revenue run rate in Q4

Foods portfolio ( led by Saffola branded - Oats, Munchiez, Honey, Soya Chunks, Peanut Butter , PLIX branded products etc ) grew by 24 pc in Q4 with a massive 8 pc gross margin expansion

Company aims to double the size of foods portfolio and Digital first brands in next 3 yrs along with further margin expansion

Current revenue share of foods business in the company is @ 15 pc. Aim to take it to 25 pc by end of FY 27

Current revenue share of Bangladesh in the international business is 44 pc. Aim to bring it down to 40 pc by end of FY 27

Company has rolled out project Setu wef Q1 FY 25 - laying a 3 yr roadmap to improve their direct reach from 10 lakh outlets to 15 lakh outlets

Scouting for inorganic opportunities to accelerate company level growth

Rural growth showing visible uptick in Q4

Have increased prices by 6 pc across the Parachute portfolio due increasing copra prices

Expect domestic revenue growth to be greater than volume growth wef Q1 FY 25

Expecting the Bangladesh business to grow in double digits in FY 25

The price cuts in Saffola Edible Oils will anniversarize towards the end of Q1

Have seen hyper competition in the economy segment in Value added hair oils in FY 24. Company hopes that such high intensity should abate in FY 25

Company hopes to further improve its margins over next 3-4 yrs driven by - further scale up of digital brands, higher share of revenues from higher gross margin products and kicking in of operational leverage in Online and International business

It is extremely important for company to expand its direct reach in order to grow their newer / challenger brands. Traditional distributor led models only focus on those SKUs / Brands that are fast moving. Therefore, its imperative for the company to keep expanding its direct distribution reach to give oxygen to new product introductions

Disc: not holding, not SEBI registered, posting for learning purposes

3 Likes