Thank you sir for your guidance.
1 Like
Carysil ltd -
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Revenues @ 188 vs 137cr, massive YoY jump of 37 pc
EBITDA @ 36 vs 25 cr ( margins @ 19 vs 18 pc )
PAT @ 15.3 vs 11.9 cr ( due higher tax outgo )
9M revenue split - geography wise -
Exports - 79 vs 78 pc YoY
Domestic - 21 vs 22 pc YoY
Product wise split of 9M revenues -
Quartz sinks - 50 vs 52 pc
Steel sinks - 11 vs 13 pc
Appliances - 11 vs 11 pc
Surfaces - 27 vs 25 pc
Company’s UK subsidiary - Carysil Products Ltd, clocked a 9M revenue run rate of 72 cr vs last yr’s 12 M run rate of 89 cr
EBITDA margins were adversely impacted due integration of United Granite LLC ( kitchen top fabrication company in USA ). From Q4, expect EBITDA margins to sustain at around 20 pc
Current Quartz sink capacity @ 10 lakh sinks/yr
Current Steel sink capacity @ 1.8 lakh sinks/yr
Company has opened 03 state of the art showrooms @ Mumbai, Gurugram, Ahmedabad - to showcase their full range of products including appliances
Company is trading and manufacturing ( some of them ) appliances like - Chimneys, Wine Chillers, Dish Washers, Hoods, Cook Tops, Microwave Owens, Built in Owens
Company’s current dealer network @ 3200, distribution network @ 85 in the domestic market
90 pc of company’s exports are on FoB basis. Hence the impact of Red Sea issue on company’s margins should be minimum
Company has tied up with the biggest retailer (ie Howdens UK ) of Kitchen Surfaces, Sinks, appliances, modular Kitchens etc in UK . They do an annual sales of > 25000 cr with an EBITDA margins of around 20 pc. They sell 10k Sinks / week. Company has received their first order from them. It’s a sizeable order !!!
Company’s new facility capable of manufacturing > 1 lakh Kitchen appliances / yr to be operational by end Mar 24
Commercial supply of SS sinks to IKEA to begin in Q4. Should be a reasonably good Qty
Q3 is generally a weak Qtr for the company due Christmas holidays. Q4 should see some sales and margins pick up
In India, company’s B2B business ( like selling directly to builders ) is looking encouraging. Confident of doing 200 cr topline from India business inside next 2 yrs. Hiring a lot of people in the B2B segment
Because of the Red Sea issue, the freight costs for the Chinese products have gone up even further. Its a kind of blessing for the company
The recent acquisition - United Granite LLC in US did a revenues of 15 cr in Q3. When acquired, this company was doing an EBITDA margins of around 10 pc
Company is bullish on its faucets and taps business. Compny’s products have received very good customer response. This business should also pick up going forward
Company’s guidance of 1000 cr topline may be achieved in FY 25 or latest by FY 26
Disc: had sold earlier at around 1100 levels. Have started buying again, biased, not SEBI registered
Disc: I ve trimmed my holdings in Narayen Hrudayalya and KIMS by around 40 pc. Both these were among my top 5 holdings. I did this because of the recent observations made by the Supreme Court on the pricing models of private hospitals
Although, I firmly believe that the observations made little economic sense and better sense will eventually prevail. I still sold - just to be safe. Plus, I was sitting on descent gains in both these stocks
Bought the following in lieu -
KVB
Federal Bank
Carysil
Time Technoplast
Surya Roshni
Akzo Nobel India
Steel Strip Wheels
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
8 Likes
Supriya Lifesciences -
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 140 vs 105 cr ( up 33 pc )
EBITDA - 41 vs 14 cr ( margins @ 30 vs 13 pc !!! )
PAT - 30 vs 10 cr ( up 200 pc !!! )
Geography wise sales mix -
Asia - 42 pc
Europe - 42 pc
LATAM - 8 pc
North America - 5 pc
Others - 4 pc
Therapy wise business mix -
Analgesics + Anesthetic - 49 pc
Anti-Histamines - 15 pc
Vitamins - 14 pc
Anti-Asthmatic - 7 pc
Anti- Allergic - 5 pc
Anti- Malarial - 2 pc
Company overview -
Niche portfolio of 38 APIs
Exporting to 86 countries
Reactor capacity @ 597 KL / day
04 separate manufacturing blocks - separated therapy wise
Largest exporters of - Chlorpeniramine Maleate ( Anti - Histamine ), Ketamine Hydrochloride ( Anaesthetic ) and Salbutamol Sulphate ( Anti -Asthmatic ) from India
15 of company’s key products are backward integrated. They represent 73 pc of company’s sales
Export sales as a percentage of total sales @ 80 pc
Top 10 customers represent 45 pc of total sales
Company has acquired adjacent land parcel for future expansion. Have also purchased a land parcel 20 km from their existing site for backward integration projects
Company has spent 60 cr towards a new CDMO facility. Should go live by end of Q1 FY 25
Four new products from Anti-Diabetes, Anti-Anxiety and Aesthetic therapies are lined up for launch in FY 25
Company believes that a sustainable EBITDA margin for them should be between 28-30 pc for medium to long term. Company guiding for > 20 pc growth in revenue ( CAGR ) for next 3 yrs
Aim to hit a 1000 cr topline in next 3 yrs. Major growth drivers should be -
Descent growth should continue in company’s top 3 molecules
Company has a basket of 8-10 molecules that are now scaling up well in the regulated markets
Company expects CMO/CDMO to scale up well. Already have got a descent size contract for an export substitute anti-anaesthetic molecule. Most countries including US, EU, India are dependent on China for this prodct. Once the company ramps up this product, it can potentially be a large molecule for the company. Plus the company is likely to get more opportunities
LATAM countries have completely revamped their regulatory framework. It has a become far stricter now. Company expects its LATAM business to accelerate going fwd as they have just cleared the Brazilian Audit in Jan 24
From Q2 FY 25, company will start commercial supplies of Whey Protein. This will further add to the revenue growth. Company expects to ramp up commercial supplies to 800-900 MT/yr iro Whey Protien
Currently, the top 3 products contribute to 45 odd pc of the revenues. In the next 3 yrs or so, company expects this to come down to 25 pc of revenues as other products ramp up
Expecting higher topline in Q4 vs Q3 with margins @ 28-30 pc
Disc: holding, added today, biased, not SEBI registered
4 Likes
Shivalik Bimetal Controls -
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 112 vs 108 cr ( up 4.3 pc )
EBITDA - 24 vs 28 cr ( margins @ 22 vs 26 pc )
PAT - 16 vs 18 cr
Company has 03 manufacturing capacities - all three located at Solan ( HP )
Plant - 1 - makes Shunt resistors using Electron Beam Welding technique ( difficult to master ). Shunt resistors are used to measure and regulate the flow of current in an electrical circuit. Find application in - EVs, smart meters, energy storage, power storage modules. Peak sales potential of this plant @ 700 cr
Plant -2 - makes Bimetal strips. Metals are joined post heating, taking advantage of their different coefficients of expansion as they respond to heating. Post bonding finishing is also done in-house. These are critical components used in overload protection devices. Find applications in - Switchgears, Medical devices, electrical appliances etc. Peak sales potential of this plant @ 600 cr
Plant -3 - makes electrical contacts. Contact materials used in such components are alloys of precious metals joined on to copper or copper alloys. These are the critical connecting points when a switch is turned on/off. Find applications in - smart meters, switchgears, wires and accessories etc. Peak sales potential of this plant @ 300 cr
Segment wise revenues -
Shunts - 51 vs 57 cr ( 50 pc of this is from the EV segment applications, around 20 pc from smart meters applications , 10 pc from energy storage applications and rest from Misc applications )
Bimetals ( includes electrical contacts ) - 61 vs 50 cr ( 65 pc from switch gears and circuit breaker applications, 15 pc from electrical appliances, 10 pc into metering apps and rest from misc applications )
Avg value of Shunts per EV varies from as low as Rs 20-30 to as high as Rs 2000 per EV , basically depending on EV to EV
Expect North American mkts for Shunt Resistors to start picking up from second half of this CY as the over stocking / inventory problems are likely to be behind by then
Smart meters demand from GoI’s initiatives is definitely an exiting opportunity. Company sees good demand from these initiatives going fwd
Company is in the process of forming a JV with Metalor Technologies. Metalor is the global leader in Bimetals and Contacts business. Exact modalities of the JV are yet to be formalised. Due diligence in progress
New facility for making Silver contacts is under construction ( 10 Km from Solan - towards Shimla ). This plant should be functional in next 4-5 months. Peak revenue potential of this plant should be around 250 cr
Base growth for next FY should be > 10 pc. However, if the EV mkt in US revives, this growth can be as high as 30 pc. Actually, all the company’s product segments are growing @ rates > 20 pc except the Shunt resistors for EVs due to the over-stocking and slowdown in North American EV mkts
Company’s revenue per smart meter should be aprox Rs 60-70 ( including both shunts and contacts )
Promoter do not have plans for further stake sale in the company
Present EBITDA margins for the contact business are around 11 pc. With new plant going on stream, margins should improve. Aiming at 1-2 pc margin expansion
EBITDA margins in the Shunts business are double or more vs the contacts business
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
1 Like
EIH -
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 770 vs 603 cr
EBITDA - 353 vs 226 cr
PAT - 230 vs 151 cr
Net Cash ( after subtracting debt ) @ 684 vs 256 cr YoY
Performance of Flight Catering business -
Revenues - 107 vs 70 cr
EBITDA - 37 vs 15 cr ( margins @ 35 vs 15 pc !!! )
Current Portfolio of Hotels -
Owned / Leased -
06 Oberoi Hotels - Domestic
02 Trident Hotels - Domestic
05 Oberoi Hotels - International
Maidens Hotel - Delhi
Total - 14
Managed Hotels -
03 Oberoi Hotels - Domestic
02 Oberoi Hotels - International
Wildflower Hotel - Shimla
Total - 06
Hotels under EIH Associated - managed by EIH Ltd -
02 Oberoi Hotels - Domestic
06 Trident Hotels - Domestic
Total - 08
Q3 occupancy @ 79 vs 77 pc YoY ( very healthy )
Q3 ARR - 19.9 k vs 16.7 k YoY
New Hotels announced after Q2’s concall - Trident @ Tirupati ( 125 rooms ) , Vizag ( 125 rooms ) and Oberoi Hotel at Gandikota (30-35 rooms) - all three hotels to go live inside 4 yrs
Company - on track and confident of adding 50 new ( big and small ) hotels and 4500 new rooms by 2030. Will be opening smaller hotels at Leisure locations ( avg of 40-50 rooms per hotel ) and bigger hotels at City locations ( avg of 200 rooms per hotel ). Will be adding more Hotels at Leisure locations
Hotels in MENA region adversely affected by the conflict in Gaza in Q3 - specially for the hotels in Egypt
RIL continues to hold 19 pc, ITC continues to hold 14 pc stake in EIH
Company is confident of sustaining 29 -30 pc EBITDA margins on an annual basis for next 2-3 yrs
Current ARRs in India are at around Rs 20k / room / night for a Oberoi level 5-Star hotel. In the International mkts, similar hotels fetch an ARR of aprox 85-90k / room / night. Therefore, the company believes that there is significant headroom for ARRs to grow in India
Current number of 5 star and above rooms avlb in India @ 1.65 lakh. New supply coming on stream till FY 28 @ 0.55 lakh. Basically the demand - supply dynamics look good for next 5 yrs !!!
Company is expecting strong demand scenario to continue in the premium segment and that is where the company operates. See ARRs / Occupancies to remain firm
Airline catering that the company is doing is primarily focussed on International routes. They do operate on select domestic routes as well. Continue to be bullish on that business. This business has a lot of Operating leverage that can kick in going forward
Disc: holding, will add if it dips > 5-10 pc, biased, not SEBI registered. Also holding EIH Associated hotels
4 Likes
Radico Khaitan -
Q3 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 1160 vs 792 cr, up 46 pc
Gross profit - 485 vs 327 cr, up 48 pc
EBITDA - 142 vs 96 cr, up 48 pc
PAT - 74 vs 57 cr, up 30 pc ( due much higher interest and depreciation costs )
Revenue break up -
IMFL -
Prestige and Above brands - 519 vs 402 cr, up 29 pc
Regular brands ( regular 8 PM and below ) - 199 vs 225 cr, down 11 pc
Non IMFL - 431 vs 157 cr, up 174 pc ( due to full capacity utilisation of Sitapur plant resulting in greater sales of country liquor )
Aim to maintain advertising and sales promotion spends @ 6-8 pc of company’s revenues
Net Debt ( minus Cash ) @ 669 cr, down by 101 cr from Sep 23 levels
Rampur Single malt - now available in 14 states in India
Jaisalmer Gin - now available in 20 states in India
Royal Ranthambore premium Whisky - now available in 19 states in India
Magic moments Vodka - commanding 59 pc Mkt share in Vodka Mkt in India. Launched a new variant -Remix Pink in Q3
8 PM premium - crossed 3 million cases within 3 yrs of launch. Growing strongly
Morpheus Brandy - commanding 59 pc mkt share in Brandy Mkt in India
New Launch - Spirit of Victory 1999 - in Luxury category ( like Rampur, priced at > Rs 5000/bottle )
Witnessing high inflation in the Grain prices ( a key RM )
The success of Magic Moments, 8 PM premium and Morpheus is giving them a lot of strength in retail trade to push luxury brands like - Jaisalmer, Rampur, Ranthambhore
See pressure to continue in the regular brands in Q4 as well. Prestige and Above should continue to grow. Also, the company’s focus is skewed towards prestige and above brands
Likely to continue to sell 430-450 cr kind of non-IMFL sales for some time to come. This is a low EBITDA kind of business with margins @ 5-6 pc. As the prestige and above sales ramp up over time, company will divert the Sitapur plant’s output towards making Prestige and Above brands away from Non-IMFL business. This is a gradual process
Aim to be debt free in 2 yrs. Most of the heavy capex is behind them
As the inflationary pressures ease, the profitability and volumes of regular brands should improve in next FY
Company’s Mkt share in spirits in fast growing UP mkt is a whopping 28 pc
In 3-5 yrs, aiming for 55-60 pc of volumes and 80 pc of sales coming from prestige and above category
Looking at new launches in future to fill portfolio gaps… like for eg - brands opposite BP, Royal Stag etc
Disc: holding from lower levels, stock continues to command expensive valuations, will add only on steep falls, biased, not SEBI registered
Akzo Nobel -
Q3 FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Revenues - 1032 vs 986 cr ( up 5 pc, volumes grew in double digits )
EBITDA - 166 vs 143 cr ( margins @ 16 vs 14.5 pc YoY )
PAT - 113 vs 97 cr ( up 17 pc )
Gross margins @ 44.1 vs 39.0 pc YoY
Q3 growth driven by B2B and Luxury B2C segments. Company is re-working its strategy on Mass and Economy segments
Automotive coatings grew in double digits
Strong orders received in Marine coatings business
Growth sustained in Infrastructure and power segments
Continue to face challenges in the mass and economy segments
Expecting double digits volume growth in Q4 as well. January growth was reasonable ( moderated by unseasonable rains in South India )
Current dealer count @ 23000. Company is present in 5000 towns / cities
Decorative ( Domestic ) : Industrial sales mix for the company @ 65 : 35
Projects business comprise 20 odd pc of the decorative business. Demand here continues to be strong as the company’s brand is known for its Quality and reputed builders do go for it
Company has taken 2 price cuts in Dec and Jan ( a total of 3 pc cut ) in the Decorative segment. Has not taken any cuts in the coatings business
Disc: holding, biased, valuations now appear reasonable, may add more, not SEBI registered
2 Likes
What are that exceptional gain of 35cr?
Also previous year the company had other income of 245cr, from where these income is generating,any idea?
Thank you so much sir for all your hardwork that you are doing and providing summary of so many good companies,thereby saving alot of time.
1 Like
Hi, was wondering why this KAMATHOTEL stock is trading at PE of around 2 while most other hotels are trading at PE in excess of 50.
Can you throw some light on this?
I dont follow hotel stocks, neither do i follow this particular stock but just looked at the earnings of Kamath hotel, thers an other income source (exceptional items) for Mar2023 quarter and the amount is significantly high.
Remove that item from earnings
Recalculate the PE, you will get the actual PE
1 Like
Marathon NextGen Realty -
Q3 and 9M FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Company profile -
52 yrs + of experience
100 + delivered projects
Portfolio includes - Luxury residential, Commercial, Affordable housing and Retail
Ongoing projects at -
Bhandup ( Neo Homes )
Byculla ( Monte South )
Panvel ( Nexzone )
Mulund ( Millenium )
Futurex ( Lower Parel )
Greater than 4 mn Sq Ft under development
9M results highlights -
Area sold - 4.34 lakh sq ft
Realisations - Commercial @ 19.6k / sq ft, Residential @ 12.4k / sq ft
Revenues - 549 cr
EBITDA - 242 cr
PAT - 128 cr
Q3 financial highlights -
Area sold - 1.71 lakh sq ft
Avg realisation ( commercial + residential ) @ 15k / sq ft
Revenues - 210 vs 278 cr
EBITDA - 96 vs 143 cr ( margins @ 43 vs 49 pc )
PAT - 51 vs 80 cr
Debt on books- 733 vs 840 cr on 31 Mar 23
Estimated sales that can be realised from projects under development @ 2600 cr
Year wise estimated sales from ongoing projects ( unsold area ) -
2024 - 632 cr
2025 - 439 cr
2026 - 323 cr
2027 - 915 cr
Upcoming projects -
Monte South phase 3 - Byculla
Nexzone phase 3 - Panvel
Neopark phase 3 - Bhandup
Current land bank -
Panvel > 100 acres
Thane > 100 acres
Bhandup > 100 acres
Dombivali > 50 acres
Assuming FSI of 2.0 for the above mentioned land bank, the company can potentially do a sales of 30,000 cr ( assuming a selling price of Rs 10k/sq ft ) over say - next 10 yrs. However, this is just a rough calculation done by me
Most of the land bank is held by the parent company ( of the Marathon group ). They get into an agreement with Marathon Nextgen to develop and sell in return for 12.5 pc of the topline of the project sold. This is a low capital intensity model and should work out well for the company
Confident of hitting 15-20 pc CAGR in revenues in years to come
Company makes an EBITDA margin band of 35-45 pc for most projects. In some commercial projects, EBITDA margins go to as high as 50 pc
Company has no plans to go beyond MMR region as of now. Company is likely to go for re-development projects in future. These are high RoI projects as the company doesn’t have to buy land
Aim to reduce debt by 20 pc every year. Aim to be at minimal debt levels in 3-4 yrs
Disc: holding, added recently, biased, not SEBI registered
2 Likes
This exceptional item relates to a sale of Hotel by the company
The company has sold one of its Hotel property to reduce its debt levels. The company has taken over the same hotel on lease from the new owner
1 Like
What a smart move by the management.At one side they reduce the debt and on other side they don’t lose the hotel and their expertise to run that hotel will become Win-Win for both the party.My only ques is why a new company first buy the hotel and then give back to the same owner back on lease,is the owing group is too large that have so much money but lack expertise in that field or what is the case.?And which group bought that hotel any idea?
At last thank you so much .
The company had a lot of trouble in the past due over leveraged balance sheet. They borrowed aggressively for growth in early 2010s. At the same time, the Hotel Industry witnessed a prolonged slowdown. It was a perfect storm for them. They have managed to wriggle out of trouble only recently
Presently, their Debt levels are down to 200 odd cr from a peak of 700 cr or so in 2012 or 2013
This sale of the hotel asset is a further step towards de-leveraging
1 Like
I guess you mistaken my question.I was asking that why acquirer of that Hotel gave back that Hotel again to Kamat on lease?
Must be due to lack of expertise. Yes
Plus, they would ve got a descent deal from Kamat Hotels as they were running it previously and would be more confident of making money on that property despite paying higher rent / lease amounts
1 Like
Thank you.
To be honest i read all Q3 concall summary posted by you and it saved lot of my time, increase my knowledge and helped me in idea generation.Thank you from the bottom of my heart.Sukriya sir
3 Likes
Can you please share your portfolio allocation and how you generate around 20% CAGR by having around 70-80 stocks in your portfolio and the rational to why you pursue that strategy?
1 Like
Advanced Enzymes -
Company background -
Company is a leading manufacturer of Probiotics and Enzymes. Company makes over 400 products derived to of 68 indigenous enzymes. These are substitutes of chemicals and find applications in diversified industries like - healthcare, agrochemicals, animal and human food etc
Enzymes - are proteinaceous molecules which serve as bio-catalysts. They not only replace traditional chemical agents but also bolster efficiency and efficacy of a wide array of products. Find wide applications in - baking, food processing, dairy processing, leather processing, biofuels, biomass processing, biocatalysis etc
Probiotics - are living microorganisms that confer significant health benefits to both humans and animals. They also find application in treating disease in areas like - inflammatory bowel disease, urogenital infections etc
Company exports its products to 45+ countries, has 700 + global customers. It’s India’s second largest company in its line of business. Company’s total fermentation capacity @ 500 mtr cube, has 07 R&D units ( 02 in US ), 09 manufacturing plants ( 07 in India, 02 in US )
Domestic : Export revenues @ 47:53
Company stared its manufacturing operations in 1994 with just 07 enzymes. Today, it makes 68 different enzymes
Biggest entry barrier to this industry is real time R&D with requirements of continuous technical upgrades and efficiency improvements - both are long gestation traits
Q3 FY 24 results -
Revenues - 161 vs 142 cr ( up 13 pc )
EBITDA - 54 vs 41 cr (up 30 pc, margins @ 33 vs 29 pc)
PAT - 42 vs 28 cr ( up 52 pc )
Geographical performance for 9M FY 24 -
India sales ( @ 50 pc of total ) - up 29 pc
Americas ( @ 33 pc of total ) - up 3 pc
Europe ( @ 6 pc of total ) - up 4 pc
Asia ( @ 7 pc of the total ) - down 8 pc
RoW ( @ 4 pc of total ) - up 114 pc
Segmental performance for 9M FY 24 -
Human nutrition - 68 pc of sales - up 18 pc
Animal nutrition - 11 pc of sales - down 2 pc
Industrial Bioprocessing - 15 pc of sales - up 17 pc
Specialised manufacturing - 06 pc of sales - up 30 pc
Q3 concall highlights -
R&D expenses @ 6-7 pc of sales
Top 10 clients contribute to 27 pc of sales
Top 10 products contribute to 50 pc of sales
Similar trends are expected to continue in near future
Largest product contributes to 22 pc of topline
Human nutrition - international business seeing good pickup courtesy growth in US. Expecting the growth momentum to continue in future as well
Probiotics doing well in Domestic mkts due increased consumer awareness
Company has got approval for 02 approvals in Europe for food grade Enzymes. Commercialisation of these products is generally a time consuming process
EBITDA margins have been inching up in last 3 Qtrs. Company expects similar improvements to continue for some more Qtrs
Avg US sales have gone up to 60-65 cr/Qtr. This is an encouraging sign. Expecting the US business to keep performing well ( not withstanding Qty lumpiness )
Industrial BioProcessing - is a huge growth area. It takes time to penetrate into new business but is an excellent long term opportunity
The inventory issues that were affecting the company previously are mostly behind them
Management is keeping healthy cash balances ( > 350 cr ) on the balance sheet - are open to inorganic acquisitions
Company’s key focus continues to remain R&D as this is the only way to high and sustainable growth
New normal for EBITDA margin band for the company should be between 30-33 pc. Company is reasonably confident of clocking 15 pc plus kind of growth for the foreseeable future
Disc: planning to take up a tracking position as the company is present in products that are basically futuristic in nature and most of their product segments should keep expanding for a long time to come, not SEBI registered, biased
3 Likes