Ranvir's Portfolio

[ranvir]

Narayana Health Q1 FY 24 concall -

Revenues - 1233 vs 1033 cr
EBITDA - 271 vs 192 cr ( margins @ 22 vs 19 pc )
PAT - 184 vs 111 cr

Currently operating - 20 hospitals ( out of which, 01 is managed and 01 is in Cayman Islands ), 03 heart centers, 21 primary health facilities

Payor mix for Q1-

Cash - 44 pc
Insured + Corporate - 27 pc
Govt schemes - 21 pc
International - 8 pc

In patient footfalls - 59k vs 55k, YoY
Out patient footfalls - 614k vs 572k, YoY

Geography wise revenue share, YoY growth -

Bengaluru- 38 pc, up 22 pc
South- 6 pc, up 16 pc
Kolkata - 27 pc, up 11 pc
East - 10 pc, up 11 pc
West - 5 pc, up 1 pc
North - 15 pc, up 12 pc

Cayman Islands revenues @ 245 vs 186 cr

Capex lined up for FY 24 @ 1140 cr out of which, 120 cr already spent in Q1

Net Debt ( Debt - Cash ) @ 20 cr

In India, Q1 is generally the weakest Qtr. Expect business to pick up gong fwd

In India, 40 pc of bed capacity is with public sector. 10 pc is with organised players, rest with unorganised players. Hence the scope for growth is huge

Net Debt to go upto 600 cr to fund Capex

Have applied with IRDAI to set up a standalone health insurance company

Most of the growth in Q1 attributable to greater occupancies and throughput which enabled the company to serve more customers. Price hikes played a smaller part

Generally - annual price hikes are in low single digits. Last taken on 01 Jan 23

Only smaller bed capacities to come online in next 3 yrs. Major new capacities to be avlb only after 3 yrs. This may lead to margin expansion in the interim

Disc: holding, biased

[Koppula_Nithin]

On Carsyil, Given 70% revenue from export market and weakening Housing construction in western countries as interest rates increased. How is company positioned to grow despite potential decline in end market ie Housing construction in west. However it looks they managed to grow even in COVID despite standstill in construction activity which makes me wonder about the strength in their business.

[ranvir]

Your observation is bang on. Let’s say the West is witnessing a slowing construction mkt

Carysil can still grow in two possible scenarios -

Fresh construction may be slowing, renovations may be rising

Or …

Mkt share gains at the expense of competitors in an otherwise slowing construction mkt

The proof of the pudding is in the eating ie results in case of Carysil. So… I would say, lets wait for Q2 results

I hope I am right. If not, I ll sell

[ranvir]

Kaveri Seeds Q1 FY 24 concall highlights -

Sales - 736 vs 686 cr
EBITDA - 278 vs 247 cr ( margins @ 38 vs 36 pc )
PAT - 275 vs 245 cr

Cash on books- 741 vs 560 cr

Q1’s PAT > FY 23’s PAT

Delayed monsoon impacted sowing of Maize. Expect maize sowing to pick up in Rabi season

Sunflower, Mustard seed exports to start from second Qtr. Expect Maize, Vegetable seed exports to grow in Q2

Company banking on new products to boost profitability

Company’s export focus is on - Bangladesh, ME, Vietnam, Cambodia, East Africa, Phillipines

Company’s products (seeds)-

Cotton, Maize, Rice, Bajra, Sunflower, Vegetables

In Q1, cotton volumes were stable, revenues up 9pc

Bajra, Hybrid rice volumes were also stable
Contribution of new products in Bajra at 68 vs 52pc YoY

Hybrid rice revenue up 9 pc due price hikes

Maize volumes were down due delayed monsoon. Expecting pick up in Q2

Vegetables volumes were down due fall in output prices. Key products - Watermelon, Okara, Tomato, Bitter Gourd, Cauliflower, Cabbage, carrot

Launching new varieties in Mustard in Haryana, UP, Rajasthan

Kaveri has expanded its vegetables seed business team along with the offerings in the vegetables division. This team is separate from the staple crops team

This business is difficult to crack. However, company has been at it for over 7 yrs now. Continue to be very bullish here

Expect this ( otherwise stagnant ) business by 25-30 CAGR over next 3-4 yrs. This is a high margin business

No new update on the 73 cr Tax demand notice received by the company

Spending a lot on vegetable seeds R&D

Segment wise revenue break up for Q1 -

Cotton- 348 vs 319 cr
Hybrid Rice- 181 vs 165 cr
Selection Rice- 110 vs 90 cr
Maize- 87 vs 96 cr
Vegetables- 18 vs 18 cr

Aim to take Vegetables sales to 150-180 cr/ annum in 5-7 yrs

Likely to catch up lost volumes in Maize in Q2, Q3, Q4

LY exports were 20 cr. Expect to do 30-35 cr this FY

Chilli, Okara and Tomatoes are the biggest and most profitable vegetable mkts. EBITDA margins vary from 30-60 pc !!!

Aim to clock 100 cr revenues from Mustard in medium term. Its also highly profitable product

Have a partnership with Monsanto for some GM crops. Waiting for Govt approvals for launch

Last 5-6 years were years of consolidation. Company has reduced its dependence on cotton to a large extent by investing a lot on other crops

Growth should pick up from this yr onwards

Aim to do 200-250 cr export revenues in 4-5 yrs

Disc : initiated a tracking position after 8 yrs

[ranvir]

Dhanuka Agri Q1 concall, latest management interview highlights -

Revenues- 369 vs 392 cr
Gross Margins @ 32.8 vs 32.7 pc
EBITDA- 44 vs 51 cr, margins @ 11.8 vs 13.1 pc
PAT- 33 vs 49 cr

Q2 is their biggest Qtr

Q1 was affected by delayed monsoon till Mid June

Demand scenario and product off take in July was good

Aug again was subdued due deficient rains but first 10 days of Sep have been buoyant (source: latest management interview on 13 Sep)

New products launched -

Implode - Maize herbicide
Mesotrax - Maize, Sugarcane herbicide
Defend - Rice Insecticide

To start commercial production from Dahej plant (company is making Technicals or AIs here) in Q2

Initially going to produce - Lamba Cyhalothrin and Bifenthin (both - pyrethroid class insecticides)

Revenue Mix in Q1-

Insecticides-27 pc
Fungicides-10 pc
Herbicides-54 pc
Others-9 pc

Herbicides have structural tailwinds as the cost of manual labour is increasing

Company guiding for 150-200 bps improvement in EBITDA margins for entire FY 24 with double digit topline growth

Besides the new Dahej Plant (for Technicals), company largely makes formulations only

Have a distribution network of 41 warehouses, 6500 distributors, 80000 retailers

Sells to aprox 1 cr farmers

Has international collaboration with 10 global MNCs to source products, technology

Has set up a new R&D centre in Haryana for faster development of products

Did a buyback of 85 cr LY and distributed Rs 2/share as dividend

Has introduced 06 new biologic formulation in India in Q1

Intend to export technicals from Dahej plant after meeting the captive demand

Indian agrochemical can potentially be a great growth story going forward (India has already overtaken US, Europe in Exports. Is only behind China now)

Inventory at Q1 end - 395 cr. Working capital days - 152

Channel inventory eased out in July after a build up in June

Rising agri commodity prices in Q2 is another positive for the Industry

Expect 50 cr revenues from the new Dahej facility in FY 24. The double digit topline growth guidance does not include this

Q1’s volume de-growth was 3.5 pc

The product off take in July was robust

Expect Dahej plant’s revenues to go upto 100 cr by end of FY 25

Prices of Chinese technicals seeing a gradual rise in Q2 ( company procures from both China and India )

Disc : have a tracking position

[ranvir]

Piramal Pharma Q1 results and concall highlights -

Revenues- 1749 vs 1482 cr, up 18 pc
EBITDA- 171 vs 89 cr, up 92 pc
PAT- (-) 99 vs (-) 109 cr

Sales breakup-

CDMO- 898 vs 770 cr, up 17 pc
CHG (complex hospital generics)- 617 vs 508 cr, up 22 pc
OTC- 239 vs 211 cr, up 13 pc

Successfully closed US FDA inspection at Pithampur with zero observations

Historically, H2 is better than H1 both iro revenues and profitability

Rights issue launched at Rs 81. Promoters subscribed to it fully

Launched 11 new products in the India - OTC business

OTC power brands- Lactocalamine, Littles, Polycrol, Tetmosol, I-range grew 15 pc & contributed to 23 pc of OTC business

Have raised 1050 cr via rights issue primarily for debt repayment

CDMO business witnessing continued order flow momentum. Generic APIs demand also improving

Witnessed string inhalation anaesthesia sales. Launched one new product ( in CHG business ) in US in Q1. More products lined up in pipeline

Recently expanded capacity at Grangemouth facility to help in Anti Body drug conjugate business ( in CDMO segment )

CDMO breakup of molecules -

Pre Clinical - 20 pc
Phase -1 - 25 pc
Phase- 2 - 12 pc
Phase-3 - 43 pc

Piramal Pharma is 4th largest inhalation anaesthesia company in the world wrt combined mkt share of - Sevoflurane, Desflurane, Isoflurane and Halothane

Has 40 pc mkt share for Sevoflurane in US

Saridon, Supradyn are also company’s popular OTC brands

Company has 49:51 JV with AbbVie for sale of Othalmology products in India. Strong presence in - Dry Eye, Glaucoma, Infections and Inflammation

Net Debt at end of Q1 at 4700 cr

It was 4800 cr at end of Q4 LY

In last 9 months, 05 of company’s facilities have cleared US FDA audits

Currently have a pipeline of 27 injectable products under development in the CHG business

In the CDMO segment, 35 products are in Phase-3 This can provide lucrative commercial manufacturing contracts for the company

Q1 capex spend-147 cr

Company to go slow on further capex to keep the Debt levels under control. As such, most of the capacity expansion is already done

Company expects the scale of business to expand signifigantly in H2 leading to better operating leverage and hence profitability

Company expects interest costs to fall significantly wef Q3 when the proceeds of rights issue are utilised

Sevoflurane comprises 80 pc of global demand for inhalation anaesthesia and is also growing well. Company currently can’t keep up with the demand, hence expanding/debottlenecking capacities of Sevoflurane

Expect most of the Phase-3 CDMO molecules to commercialise in next 3 yrs - this can be a big revenue/profitability driver in the future

WuXi, Lonza and Piramal are the only major players in anti body drug conjugates (ADC) Mkt. Their demand is steadily going up. Company’s expanded ADC facilities are expected to go live in H2

The new CHG product launched in Q1 in an injectable product

Disc: holding, biased

[ranvir]

Was going through the Q1 results, concall, management commentary etc iro two neglected stocks ( IMHO ) - Emami Ltd and Amrutanjan Healthcare Ltd

I think, both can potentially do well this year. However, I can’t be sure. It’s just a feel that u get going through Q1 results

Some triggers lined up for Emami Ltd -

Pickup in sales of male grooming segment and positive guidance for the rest of the year

Good strength in the sales of Zandu’s Ayurvedic products

Company posting descent results despite a weak summer season and hence weakish sales performance from Navratna franchise

Promoters pledge likely to come down from 33 pc to 18 pc post the sale of the Hospitals business to Manipal group

Kesh King Amortisation being out of the P&L for this FY

Some triggers for Amrutanjan -

Heavy channel inventory of Balms which affected the performance in FY 23 is a thing of the past now

Continued descent to good performance from Comfy ( clocking sales of around 80 cr - yearly run rate ), Fruitik and Electroplus brands ( combined sales of around 60 cr - yearly run rate ). If the company can sustain the growth in these 3 brands and go steady on the pain management category, the stock may see some potential upside

Disc: I am biased. These r just my thoughts. Can go wrong. Likely to initiate a tracking position

[ranvir]

Some reasonably valued, descent growth stocks at current market prices ( IMHO )-

Dodla Dairy
Ajanta Pharma
Taj GVK Hotels
Emami Ltd
RPG Lifesciences
Landmark Cars
Cipla
Somany Ceramics
Eris Lifesciences
HDFC Bank
Axis Bank

Disc : holding all. Not a SEBI registered advisor. Biased. Don’t follow blindly

[ranvir]

Ajanta Pharma Q1 highlights -

Breakdown of business revenues -

Branded business -

India - 32 pc
Asia - 26 pc
Africa - 15 pc
Total branded business - 73 pc

Generic business -

Africa Institutional - 5 pc
US - 22 pc

Total generic business - 27 pc

Total MRs across geographies - 4500 +
Presence in 30+ countries
Total products- 500 +

India business -

Cardiac- 39 pc
Opthal- 31 pc
Derma- 21 pc
Pain- 9 pc

Total - 10 brands with sales > 25 cr, 52 pc business from top 10 brands. 03 launches in Q1, 01 launch was first to Mkt

Last 4 yr’s India sales CAGR @ 14 pc. Only behind - JB Chen, Dr Reddy, Eris, Ipca, Aristo

Asia + Africa branded business -

Major presence in - Philippines, Middle East & CIS countries, Kenya, Tanzania, West Africa

4 Yr sales CAGR in Asia-12 pc
4 Yr sales CAGR in Africa-16 pc
Africa Institutional business FY 23 sales @ 190 cr, down @ 8 pc CAGR in last 4 yrs

US Generics-

52 ANDAs approved
6-8 filings/ yr
Last 4 yr sales CAGR @ 17 pc

R&D-

FY 23 spend at 237cr
Employing 850 scientists

Q1 financial outcomes-

Branded business sales @ 732 vs 688 cr

Generics sales @ 278 vs 258 cr

Total sales - 1010 vs 944 cr, up 7 pc
EBITDA - 271 vs 222 cr, up 22 pc
PAT - 208 vs 175 cr, up 20 pc

Announced a special dividend of Rs 25/share as it was company’s 50th yr since inception

Ajanta out-grew India Mkt by 400 bps in Q1

Gross margins in Q1 improved by 200 bps to 75 pc

Guiding for 25+/- 1 pc EBITDA margin guidance for FY 24. Also guiding for Mid teen sales growth

Capex guidance for FY 24 @ 200 cr ( including maintenance capex and new corporate building )

Capex to remain muted in FY 25-26

Don’t see any addition in Indian field force in near future

Expect significant ramp up in Africa branded sales wef Q2

A back of the Envelope calculation suggests an EBITDA of around 1050 cr and PAT of around 750 cr for FY 24

Disc: plan to take up a tracking position

[ranvir]

Elecon Engineering company - latest results highlights-

One of Asia’s largest Industrial gear manufacturing company. Capable of making complex gear boxes for Defence applications (Indian Navy)

Has widest range of gear applications across Industrial sectors - industry agnostic

Mfg and assembly plants in India, UK, Sweden, US and Netherlands

Has in house foundry and fabrication facility

Has robust Mkt Share in highly fragmented and unorganised Mkt

Industries served - Power, Cement, Sugar, Steel, Defence, Rubber, Mining etc

Export revenues @ 30 pc

Also has a material handling Division. Has now turned profitable

Q1, FY 24 highlights -

Sales - 414 vs 328 cr, up 26 pc
EBITDA - 96 vs 72 cr ( @ 23.1 vs 21.9 pc )
PAT - 73 vs 42 ( @ 17.6 vs 13 pc )

87 pc revenues from Industrial Gears, 13 pc from Material Handling business

Segment wise performance -

Gears - Sales - 485 vs 361 cr, up 26 pc. EBIT - 89 vs 55 cr, up 60 pc

Material Handling - Sales - 54 vs 43 cr, up 25 pc, EBIT - 12 vs 5 cr, up 160 pc

Past 5 yr CAGRs -

Sales- 12 pc
EBITDA- 34 pc
PAT- 38 pc

Current consolidated order book @ 790 cr

Aim to hit FY 24 sales @ 2000 cr with 22 pc EBITDA margins (with a scope of margin improvement)

Company witnessing increasing demand from Africa. To set up a fully owned subsidiary to cater to that demand

Company has a net Cash surplus position of aprox 250 cr at the end of Q1

Have entered newer Mkts- Australia, South America. Seeing good response here

Have got 5 new OEM orders in Q1. Can generate an annual revenue of around 40 cr from these OEMs

May lead to bigger business going fwd, as the relationship matures-company is bullish about the situation

Expecting good orders coming in from Defence sector from next FY onwards. FY 26,27 also look promising iro defence orders

Replacement sales in Q1 as a proportion of total sales was at 33 pc

Company sees a ROSY demand picture in FY 25 and beyond as well

Likely to start supplying gear boxes to Railways and Metros in near future

Current capacity utilisation @ 76 pc. Nominal capex required for next 2-3 Yrs as the company can also resort to sub-contracting

At present, 70 pc of company’s customers are repeat customers

Disc : planning to take up a tracking position

[ranvir]

Some interesting stock Ideas -

Cipla + Sun Pharma - reducing pricing pressures in US generics + Complex and speciality portfolios in US

Somany Ceramics - valuation gap vs Kajaria in an industry that’s likely to do very well this yr

Arman Financials, KVB, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank - still below fair value - IMHO

Angel One - gains in Mkt share and constantly rising F&O volumes

RACL, Elecon engineering - making rapid strides in export Mkts

Mayur Uniquoters, Carysil - Buoyant Q1 management commentary wrt exports and domestic Mks

For long term- Neuland - expect CDMO engine to fire

Prince Pipes - Inventory gains plus good demand scenario for its products

Disc : holding most of these

Biased

Not SEBI registered, Views r personal

[ranvir]

Glenmark Pharma Q1 results -

Region wise sales -

India - 1064 cr, up 3 pc (under performed the IPM)
North America - 808 cr, up 22 pc
Europe - 573 cr, up 73 pc
RoW ( basically EMs ) - 551 cr, up 30 pc
APIs - 376 cr, up 16 pc
Others - 27 cr

Total sales - 3401 cr, up 22 pc

Percentage of Branded sales out of the total @ 47 pc
( basically India + RoW formulations )

EBITDA @ 631 vs 431 cr

Margins @ 18.6 vs 15.5 pc YoY

Glenmark’s 9 brands are in top 300 brands in IPM. Glenmark is no - 2 in Respiratory and Derma segments in India

Glenmark Consumer care grew 20 pc. Has popular brands like - Candid Dusting powder and Scalp Anti Dandruff shampoo in its portfolio

Mkt Share of Glenmark’s Speciality Drug - Ryaltris (nasal spray for allergies) in various countries -

Aus-18 pc
SA-15 pc
Poland-8 pc
Italy-10 pc

Glenmark’s subsidiary - Ichnos Sciences has various NCE under discovery and development phase - most of them are Oncology molecules. GPL aims to get into some out-licensing deals yr

Have reduced R&D spends to 8.5 pc of sales. Will bring it down to 7.5 odd pc by next yr

This will boost profitability going forward. GPL’s heavy spends (beyond Industry norm of 5-6 pc of sales) are because of its NCE programs

Company to remain focussed on 03 Pharma therapies - Derma, Respiratory, Oncology. Going to launch a number of new products in these areas

Continue to file 10-15 products in US/ yr. But the complexity of the products has gone up significantly. Not filing plain vanilla products anymore

Disc: hold tracking positions in both GPL and GLS. Biased. Not SEBI registered

[ranvir]

Glenmark Pharma latest updates-

Selling 75 pc stake in GLS (Glenmark Life Sciences) that was involved in making APIs and had a small CDMO business - to Nirma Group

To get sale proceeds (post Tax) of about 5000 cr. Has a debt of 4600 cr on Books

GPL to be debt free by yr end

GLS used to pay hefty dividends to its parent so as to reduce its Debt burden. That obligation is now gone

GLS’s CDMO ambitions were at risk as its parent (GPL) was involved in NCE research. Innovators were uncomfortable handing over CDMO projects to GLS because of that

GLS used to trade at significant discount to peers because of these reasons

I think, its a win-win for both GPL and GLS

Disc : bought a tracking position in both