Ranvir's Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
814

Fortis Healthcare Q4 concall highlights -

Consolidated numbers -

For Q4-

Revenues at 1643 cr, up 19 pc
EBITDA at 285 cr, up 25 pc
PAT at 128 cr, up 47 pc (excluding exceptional items )
Net Debt at 330 cr, down 40 pc !!!

Hospitals business -

Revenues at 1350 cr, up 29 pc

EBITDA at 230 cr, up 60 pc. Hospitals EBITDA margins at 17 pc
Occupancy at 67 vs 59 pc yoy

Diagnostics business -

Revenues at 332 cr, down 9 pc
EBITDA at 55 vs 84 pc
EBITDA margins at 16.5 vs 22.5 pc
Adjusted for COVID, diagnostics revenues were up 12 pc

For full FY 23 -

Hospitals revenues at 5107 cr, up 20 pc
EBITDA margins at 18.1 vs 15.8 pc !!!

Diagnostics revenues at 1347 cr, down 16 pc
EBITDA margins at 19.5 vs 26.5 pc ( due loss of COVID revenues )

Company guiding for Consol EBITDA margins at 20 pc for FY 24

For FY 23, Intl patients revenues at 425 vs 215 cr yoy !!!

Fortis’s main therapeutic focus areas with revenue shares -

Cardiac- 19 pc
Ortho- 9 pc
Renal- 7 pc
Neuro- 8 pc
Gastroenterology- 5 pc
Oncology- 13 pc
Gynae- 4 pc
Pulmo- 3 pc

Domestic Cash - 36 pc
Intl - 8 pc
ECHS - 6 pc
CGHS - 4 pc
PSUs - 9 pc
Insurance - 35 pc

Hospitals margins profile -

EBITDA …No of Hospitals… Revenue Contribution

25 pc …2 …20 pc
20-25 pc …9 …31 pc
15-20 pc …3 …27 pc
10-15 pc …3 …12 pc
< 10 pc …5 …10 pc

Current Bed capacity - aprox 4000 beds

Added 140 beds in FY 23

Brown field additions planned over next 4-5 yrs - aprox 1400 beds (looks like a huge positive as this should not involve heavy capex)

In addition, company would pursue inorganic hospital acquisitions

Acquisition of Meteor Hospital Manesar -

To acquire for 225cr. Deal signed in Apr 23
Bed capacity - 350, spread across 5 acres
Aim to operationalise this Hospital within 9 months

Also added a 200 bed Multi Speciality Hospital in Noida

Added a new cancer day care centre in New Delhi in FY 23

SRL diagnostics added 1100 touch points in FY 23 to take the total beyond 3500 touch points

SRL has not taken any price hikes in FY 23

Govt business may reduce slightly going fwd (presently at 18 pc), improving margins

Brownfield expansions will improve economies of scale going fwd

Expect double digit revenue growth in FY 24 in Hospitals business

Expect to take the acquired Manesar’s hospital from 150 to 300 beds over time. Manesar has good catchment area wrt patients

Aim to divest 02 facilities which are loss making over next 1-2 yrs. If this happens, EBITDA margins for FY 24 may go to 21-22 pc

Maint + expansion Capex for FY 24 to be around 600-700 cr (Manesar facility requires expenditure of aprox 100 cr to bring it to Fortis standards)

Looking to acquire assets in the existing markets subject to sensible pricing ( NCR/ Mumbai/ Punjab/ Bangaluru/ Kolkata ). Should be around 150-250 beds kind of asset

Assuming a 7000 cr topline and 20 pc EBITDA, Fortis should do around 1400 cr EBITDA next yr

PAT should be around 700 cr or thereabouts. Not a bad deal at 21k cr Mkt cap for a brand with national recall and good return ratios

Disc: hold a tracking position, biased, only expressing my opinion

1 Like
815

Carysil Q4 and FY 23 concall highlights -

FY 23 -

Revenues at 593 vs 492 cr. Domestic revenues - 131 vs 97 cr. Exports - 462 vs 318 cr

EBITDA - 108 vs 114 cr

PAT - 52 vs 65 cr

Volumes -

Quartz sinks - 5.14 vs 6.50 lakh units
SS sinks - 1.09 vs 1.05 lakh units

Kitchen appliance - 55k vs 48k units

25 pc of revenues came from solid surface sinks vs NIL in LY

22 pc of revenues from domestic mkts vs 5 pc LY

Expanded domestic network to 3100 vs 1500 dealers LY

Received double orders from IKEA for quartz sinks

Expanded Quartz and SS sink capacity to 10 and 1.8 lakh units

Dubai based subsidiary for selling kitchen appliances to go live by Q2 FY24

Acquired- ‘Tap Factory’ Ltd in UK

For Q4 FY 23-

Sales- 146 vs 139 cr
EBITDA- 26 vs 28 cr (margins down to 18 vs 20 pc)
PAT- 12 vs 17 cr

Renewed their contract with ‘Karran Inc’ based in US for supply of Quartz Sinks worth $ 68 million over a 5 yr period

Demand from US,UK is descent, Europe has been weak

Gross Debt on 31 Mar at 220 cr

Company likely to gain Mkt share in Europe due high energy prices there

Out of total sales of 5.14 lakh Quartz sinks, 20 pc were sold in India

Carysil Sinks have good brand recall in India. Once a customer asks for it, it becomes easy to sell other built in Kitchen appliances to him/her as the trust factor is pre-existing. This is a big advantage

Without this, Carysil would not have been able to compete easily in the highly competitive built-in appliance segment

Company receiving multiple queries from customers across the globe. Hope to convert some of them into formal contracts shortly

Guiding for a topline growth of 15-20 pc

In that case, EBITDA margins also likely to expand to around 20 pc kind of levels. Plus input costs are also coming down

Aprox Gross Margins -

Quartz Sinks- 48 pc
Steel sinks- 35 pc
Appliances- 40 pc

Aim to sell around 6 lakh Quartz sinks in FY 24

This number may get revised upwards if the company wins a few new contracts / supply agreements

No major Capex planned for FY 24

Company likely to hit a 1000 cr kind of topline runrate in FY 25 or 26 with India sales around 25 pc

Once a builder uses Carysil, they always come back. Company is focussing on setting up a dedicated B2B team to sell to reputed builders/architects. This may fuel domestic growth

‘Tap Factory Ltd’ has great technology and descent Mkt access. That should help Carysil in Europe

Planning to launch completely new range of Sinks, Faucets and Kitchen Hoods in Sep 23

Fall in Quartz Sinks volume due inventory rationalisation by customers post over-stocking during COVID

Disc: Holding, Biased. Management commentary sounds bullish. I am reasonably hopeful

2 Likes
816

RPG Lifesciences Q4 & FY 24 concall highlights-

Sales breakup-

Domestic formulations-67 pc (mostly branded )
Intl formulations-18 pc (both generics & branded)
APIs-15 pc

Company- strong in Immunosuppressants in India(Azathioprine)

Manufacturing facilities-03
Employees -1200

FY 23 -

Sales - 512 vs 440 cr
EBITDA - 103 vs 87 cr
EBITDA margins - 21 vs 20.3 pc
PBT - 91 vs 73 cr
Cashflows - 115 vs 70 cr

Q4 ( a seasonally weak Qtr )-

Sales - 118 vs 103 cr
EBITDA - 18 vs 15 cr
PAT - 10 vs 7 cr

FY 23 segment wise performance -

Domestic Formulations-20 pc sales growth led by legacy brands

Intl Formulations-18 pc sales growth, led by new products and markets

APIs- muted growth of 2 pc

New product (launched after FY 19) contribution in FY 23 at 28 pc

Strengthening presence in Rheumatology and Oncology

Naprosyn ( pain reliever ) becomes company’s 50 cr+ brand

Monthly revenues per MR at 5.5 lakh vs 5 lakh vs 4.2 lakh in FY 23,22,21

Sales expiries at 1.5 vs 2.1 vs 2.4 pc in FY 23,22,21

Broad business strategy -

Build Immunosuppressants portfolio

Focus on Niche, low competition, complex products

Expand in Myanmar, Vietnam, SriLanka, Egypt, Thailand, Sudan and South Africa

Build long lasting relations with leading big and generic Pharma companies for API supplies

For FY 23, Domestic formulations volumes grew 13 pc !!!

This is way way above the volume growth of IPM

Rest of the growth came from price hikes and new products

Company is debt free. Cash surplus @ 115 cr - to be deployed for M&As

Q4 API growth was tepid because of Inventory adjustment by one of their top customers

Rheumatology now contributes 15 pc of sales (launched a few yrs ago)

Have identified 9-10 products for Intl formulations and API business and R&D on the same is on

Legacy products contribute to 67 pc of domestic business. Launched 8-9 line extension for these products

Immunosuppressants are mostly used in Nephrology and Rheumatology

Monoclonal Anti-Bodies is a new promising area of growth.Current contribution at 7pc

Expect even better traction in Intl Formulation business in 1-2 yrs time as R&D efforts fructify. Similar expectations wrt APIs

Capex - Spending aprox 100 cr on two of their plants. Will lead to capacity expansion by 40-50 pc for APIs and 15-20 pc for Domestic formulations

WRT APIs- company is strong in Immunosuppressant salts

Plus the company intends to carefully select new APIs for development as competing with larger players like DIVIS is not an option

Company intends to export formulations of all four commonly used Immunosuppressant molecules in all strengths and forms

Aim to increase MRs by 8-10 pc/ yr

New areas where company intends to expand in domestic Mkt is in Derma and Gastroenterology but only in high end specialist products. Won’t be entering mass products

Can enter both these segments as Immunosuppressants are already used here

My take -

Largely a branded Pharma company available at inexpensive valuations

Holding, Biased

Not a recommendation

3 Likes
817

KIMS Q4 concall highlights -

Revenues - 580 vs 380 cr ( YOY )
EBITDA - 163 vs 114 cr ( margins @ 27 pc vs 31 pc )
PAT - 99 vs 83 cr

IP volumes - 45k vs 32.5k
OP volumes - 380k vs 270k
ARPOB - 30.5k vs 25.1k
ARPP - 127k vs 115k

KIMS Sunshine Secunderabad to be shifted to new state of the art site & be operational in Q2 FY 24

Nahsik Greenfield and Bangalore Semi-brownfield work progressing as per schedule

Thane Hospital expected to be Ops by Q2FY25

Total operational Beds@3470

Occupancy@69 vs 78 pc YOY

Area wise split for FY 23 -

Operational Beds, ARPOB, EBITDA, EBITDA margins-

Telangana - 1085, 46k, 348 cr, 31 pc
AP matured - 595, 16k, 75 cr, 31 pc
AP acquired - 1010, 13.5k, 67 cr, 19 pc
Sunshine - 527, 63.8k, 81 cr, 19 pc
Nagpur - 250, 29.5k, 4.5 cr, 5 pc

Payor Mix -

Cash- 54 pc
Insurance - 26 pc
Corporate - 12 pc
Arogyasri - 8 pc

Current Hospital capacities -

Bengaluru ( under Const )
Nagpur ( 334 beds )
Nahsik ( under Const )
Telangana ( 4 hospitals, 1727 beds )
AP ( 7 hospitals, 1879 beds )
Thane ( under const, 300 beds )

Future geographic expansion planned in - Banglaluru Karnataka region, Nahsik, Aurangabad, Indore, North TN and Odisha

Nagpur facility - at current revenues, EBITDA to grow to double digits in about 6 months. As revenue expands, can expect further margin expansion thereafter

Thane to be a 300 bed hospital. Expect > 30k APPOB as its a metro city.Looking to strike a deal with strategic investor to partner in Thane so that KIMS’s capital is freed up and it becomes an asset light model there

Thane Capex post strategic Investor’s entry to be around 200cr

Nahsik + Bangaluru Capex for FY 24 to be around 450 cr

Likely to add aprox 200-300 beds in FY 24 as parts of Thane and Nhasik get operational

Current net Debt at aprox 300 cr. Expect 6 cr/Qtr finance costs for FY 24

Looking for a property in Malad. Nothing concrete yet

A 1 lakh sq ft land parcel is avlb next to Thane facility for future expansions

To expand and add more beds at Kondapur and Secunderabad and add more specialities. Same for AP-mature hospitals

Telangana and AP existing hospitals will be scaled up to 2000 and 1200 beds

Most of the above mentioned expanded bed capacities to come online in FY 25

Bangalore, Nhasik, Thane - also to come online in FY 25. Real benefits to be visible in FY 26 - from these three facilities

For FY 24, there is headroom in existing hospitals to grow as group’s current consolidated occupancies are around 69-70 pc

Expect EBITDA high single digit EBITDA growth from AP-mature and Telangana hospitals in FY 24

Thane stake sale to make it asset light in advanced stages

No major debt increase is envisaged for Capex in Thane+Bangaluru+Nahsik as company is generating healthy cash flows

Beyond the current Capex (that’s lined up), company would like to digest these and only then go for further expansion

Adding more complex procedures in AP Mkt

This should lead to increase in ARPOBs in AP

Disc: core holding, holding from lower levels, biased

4 Likes
818

Hey, any opinions on results?

819

Hi @omsingla … Which company are you talking about??

820

About Nippon AMC… how do you see the results and future? The sector seems pessimistic right now but can this be a great time to study and take positions?

821

Yes…

That’s why I have taken up a small tracking position. Plus the Equity Mkts are likely to be buoyant this year. That may be an added tailwind.

1 Like
822

Page Industries Q4 concall Highlights -

Q4 FY 23 results vs Q4 FY 22 vs Q3 FY 23

Sales - 969 vs 1111 vs 1223 cr

EBITDA - 134 vs 267 vs 193 cr

Margins - 14 vs 24 vs 16 pc

PAT - 78 vs 191 vs 124 cr

Volume de-growth @ 14 pc YoY and 19 pc QoQ

Page Industries Q4 concall Highlights-

Q4 FY 23 results vs Q4 FY 22 vs Q3 FY 23

Sales - 969 vs 1111 vs 1223 cr
EBITDA - 134 vs 267 vs 193 cr
EBITDA Margins - 14 vs 24 vs 16 pc(mainly due poor Opex absorption)
PAT - 78 vs 191 vs 124 cr

Volume de-growth@ 14 pc YoY and 19 pc QoQ

Distribution reach - 1.2 lakh MBOs, 1289 EBOs and 24 LFS partners ( like - Lifestyle, Spencers, Reliance Retail, Metro etc )

E-Com business up 34 pc in Q4 (YoY)

Had the revenues been at previous year levels, EBITDA would have been around 17-18 pc

Inventory at distributor/retail level had become extremely lopsided due channels buying whatever was avlb during pandemic vs what the Mkt wanted

Company implementing Auto Replenishment System (ARS) across India which is a very complex exercise and bound to cause shorterm pain

This is a major transformation for the company and is causing inventory de-stocking across the channel partners

The Mkt weakness is further worsening the situation

Company seeing some improvement already

In all probability, the worst is behind

Don’t see a need for price cuts right now

Most of high cost cotton inventory expended

Secondary sales were better than primary sales in Q4 as ARS implementation ensured slower replenishment of inventories

Demand weakness across categories wrt company’s products

Clear shift of demand from inner wear and athleisure to outerwear being witnessed in the Mkt

Aim to get back to 18-20 pc EBITDA band for FY24

Not going to cut back on advertisement, continue to be very bullish-long term

Company’s mkt share in Men’s inner wear at 17-18 pc. Has ample headroom to grow. Athleisure mkt share is in single digits

Inventory at trade level now at 45-50 days, basically at normal levels. Inventory at distributor level is also 45-50 days (got corrected by 20 days in Q4)

However, distributor level inventory is still a little lopsided due pandemic led supply-demand mismatch brought out earlier

Launched Denim category in Q4…well received by the Mkt

Gross Margins at 38 vs 41 pc YoY. 39-40 pc is the normal range for the company

Have created separate division for accessories like Towels, Socks, Caps etc due huge headroom for growth

As the demand recovers, Jockey should be the Quickest off the block …management is confident about it

Aim to grow faster in womenswear due lower base

Disc: initiated a tracking position post the fall in stock price
Hunch : the worst is over

1 Like
823

Ranvir, the concall highlights have been very helpful. However, i can’t help but notice the sheer number of companies you are invested in. It’s amazing you are able to keep a tab on these.

Would it be possible for you to share the total number of companies in your portfolio and how they are allocated?

Company names are not required. Just something on the lines of top5 have x% allocation and something on those lines.

Thanks in advance.

Best,
R

824

Hi…

I am currently holding about 50 stocks. Top 18-20 would be like 80 pc of the portfolio with allocations varying from 2-6 pc each ( roughly )

Next 30-32 stocks make up the rest of the 20 pc. Their allocations vary from 0.5-1 pc each. These are basically tracking positions where I intend to either increase position size as the company keeps churning out better performance or have been bought for quick 10-20 pc kind of trading gain over a short period of time ( say 3-6 months )

So…thats the whole philosophy. The thing that I personally like about this approach is that it forces u to study more which helps expand the circle of competence

Top 20 odd wala bracket includes -

HDFC Bank
Axis Bank
ICICI Bank
IndusInd Bank
Bajaj Finance+Finserv
Federal Bank
Syngene
Neuland
KIMS
Narayan Hrudayalaya
Balkrishna Industries
Radico Khaitan
RIL
UPL
Divis
Prince Pipes
Kajaria Ceramics
GFL
Century Ply
CCL products
CG Consumer
TTK Prestige

Next 30 odd wala bracket includes -

Eris Life
RPG Life
Cipla
Sun Pharma
Fortis
Rainbow Childcare
Angel One
Icici Securities
Mayur Uniquoters
Carysil
Dodla Dairy
ITC
Xpro India
Shivalik Bimetals
Usha Martin
Benaras Hotels
EIH
Devyani International
Galaxy Surfactants
Aarti Industries
Indoco Remedies
Jyothy Labs
Laurus Labs
Landmark Cars
Piramal Pharma
RACL Geartech
Uttam Sugar
Vedanta
Nippon AMC
ICICI Lombard
Kotak Bank
Granules
Adani Ports

9 Likes
825

I agree with your point of increasing circle of competence. I am of the similar view. Just one question , is many times we hear about position sizing and how critical it is for overall portfolio returns. What are your views about it?

826

Hi @Mudit.Kushalvardhan …

What I aim to do is to hit the 20 pc CAGR mark. Anything beyond that is bonus … if I get it, its OK

Even if I don’t and some of my friends are able to achieve it with concentrated portfolios … I am OK with that too

Aim is to maximise learning with good to descent returns. As learnings improve, returns should automatically head higher

2 Likes
827

Thanks for guidance. I too aim for 20% CAGR. Do you maintain even nutual fund portfolio along with direct stock portfolio? Or this 20% target is for direct stocks and for mutual funds its different? Or its combined one?

1 Like
828

I don’t own Mutual Funds. My stock portfolio is already like a MF :joy: :joy:

14 Likes
829

Welspun India Q4 concall’s key takeaways -

YoY financials -

Sales - 2195 vs 2247 cr

EBITDA - 320 vs 246 cr (margins at 14.6 vs 11 pc)

PAT - 129 vs 52 cr

Division wise performance -

Home textiles-

Sales- 2017 vs 2073 cr

EBITDA- 293 vs 240 cr (margins at 14.5 vs 11.6 pc)

Flooring -

Sales- 208 vs 189 cr (half of it- domestic)

EBITDA- 9 vs (-)3 cr (margins at 4.2 vs (-)1.5 pc)

Gross Debt - 2350 vs 3188 cr

Net Debt - 746 vs 1398 cr

Debt/Equity - 0.38 vs 0.56

Domestic consumer business grew 31 pc YoY. Now contributing to 8 pc of sales vs 4 pc LY

Total branded business @ 22 pc of sales vs 16 pc LY

Emerging businesses now contributing 34 pc of sales vs 26 pc LY

Most capex now behind. Only capex will now be to set up green energy capacities ( @ 200cr )

Welspun now the most widely distributed home textile brand in India

Investing heavily (marketing) in India business. Has hit EBITDA break even levels despite heavy marketing spends

Advanced textiles business grew 24 pc YoY

Announced buyback of shares at Rs 120/share and dividend of Rs 0.10/share. Combined - total outgo at 250 cr

Aim to achieve a topline growth of 10-12 pc in FY 24 with EBITDA margins at around 15 pc (that works out to be around 1300 cr of EBITDA)

Expect domestic business to grow at > 25 pc with positive EBITDA

Aim to bring Net Debt below 1000 cr

Finished goods inventory down by 20 pc

Lot of de-stocking has happened in US. Some residual de-stocking may continue in Q1. Europe is still soft. Should see good growth from Australia, GCC mkts and India

By FY 25, should be close to net debt free status

Flooring business EBITDA for FY 23 was 18 cr vs negative LY

Flooring business clocked aprox 800 cr revenues in FY 23. EBITDA margins should improve further in flooring business going forward

Once solar plant comes online (in H2 FY 24), it should help bring down energy costs by around 40 cr

Aim to hit 16000 cr topline by FY26

Advanced textiles grew 21 pc YoY in Q4. Should continue to grow at similar rates in FY24

Emerging business (retail own brands + retail licensed brands in US,Europe + advanced textiles + soft flooring) which is currently at 36 pc, should reach 45 pc of overall business by FY26

Disc: may initiate a tracking position
Hunch: company may end up over performing on its guidance

1 Like
830

hey Ranvir,
Are you tracking any affordable housing and logistics theme?(asking as currently they are out of flavour).

831

Hi… @omsingla … NO. Not really. There is nothing on my radar wrt affordable housing / logistics

However, one promising Micro-Finance company that I am inclined to study is Arman Financial Services. Another set of companies where I intend to slowly increase my holdings is in the outdoor travel / leisure space - EIH and Wondrella holidays

See… if u like something

1 Like
832

Galaxy Surfactants Q4 and FY 24 concall highlights -

FY 23 Volume wise sales data -

Performance surfactants - 153k MT vs 149k MT, growth led by India
Speciality surfactants - 77k MT vs 85k MT, de-growth led by Africa, Gulf and Turkey

FY 23 sales data -

Performance surfactants- 2896 vs 2256 cr, up 28 pc

Speciality surfactants- 1559 vs 1442 cr, up 8 pc

Total- 4455 vs 3698 cr, up 20 pc

EBITDA- 578 vs 413 cr, up 40 pc (margins at 13 vs 11 pc , pretty much back to historical levels)

PAT- 381 vs 263, up 45 pc

Significant decline in freight costs

Pricing and Product mix ensured EBITDA/MT remained healthy

Easing worldwide inflation may help in global demand revival

Company is integrated across full value chain of HPC industry

210+ product grades

07 strategically located plants

74 member R&D facility

Presence across 80 countries

India’s largest maker of Oleochemicals based surfactants and speciality care products for HPC industry

Chief application areas - Hair, Oral, Home & Skincare, Cosmetics, Toiletries

Chief customers - Unilever, Henkel, P&G, Colgate, Reckitt Benckiser, Himalaya, Emami, Dabur, Loreal, Cavincare

Revenue contributions -
MNC - 58 pc
Regional players - 12 pc
Local / Niche players - 30 pc

Biggest RM - fatty alcohol prices are down by 50 pc in last 1 yr

8-10 pc volume growth for next 3-5 yrs is possible in India

Africa, Middle East and Turkey mkt conditions were tough due currency depreciation and inflation. Now these Mkts are showing signs of stabilisation

With receding inflation worldwide demand revival is a good possibility

Aiming at 6-8 pc consolidated vol growth in FY24 with EBITDA growth higher than that

Sales breakup of performance vs speciality surfactants at roughly 66:33

Inventory destocking should be over by Q1 end in US,Europe

As growth in Speciality segment picks up, margins to improve

As inventory in US,Europe gets corrected + Inflation moderates, there should be a descent bump in speciality sales

Maint capex @ 30-50 cr/yr going fwd. Next year expansion Capex to be around 150 cr

Cash on books at around 150 cr

India demand at healthy levels

Products based on fatty alcohols are categorised as performance surfactants. Rest are speciality

Disc: hold a tracking position. Hoping for a performance pick up going fwd

2 Likes
833

Cipla Q4 and FY 23 ending concall highlights -

Full yr results -
Sales - 22753 cr, up 5pc ( up 11 pc adjusted for COVID products )
EBITDA - 5027 cr, up 22 pc
PAT - 2984 cr, up 13 pc

Q4 results -
Sales- 5739 cr, up 9 pc
EBITDA- 1174 cr, up 20 pc
PAT- 708 cr, up 12 pc

In Q4 -
India business (branded generics+trade generics+OTC) grew 16 pc adjusted for COVID sales
US business sales at $ 201 million, up 27 pc
SAGA (South Africa+ Africa general)business de grew
in Q4
R&D at 371 cr, up 15 pc yoy. Currently at 6.5 pc of sales

India OTC sales crossed 1000cr in FY 23 (their return ratios, in some time will be better than any Indian FMCG business)

FY24 geography wise sales break up-

India-9869cr
North America-5909cr
SAGA ( SA + Subsaharan Africa)-3166cr
Intl Mkts ( Europe + RoW )-3028cr
APIs-134cr

India branded growth (ex Covid) grew 13 pc vs 8 pc Mkt growth

Chronic share in India business improved by 300 bps to 59 pc vs 56 pc YoY

21 Indian Brands in top 300. Each of these are 100 cr plus brands

In trade generics, there are 08 brands clocking 50 cr plus revenues

Have licensed Novartis’s Diabetic combination drugs(Galvus) that clocked 250 cr+ revenues last yr for India

Also entered into an agreement to market Scapho (injectable) … a monoclonal antibody used to treat psoriasis for India

Acquired Endura Mass for India consumer business

Added 800 MRs in India

Three complex generic products in pipeline. Filing to commence in FY 24

FY23 Gross Margins at 64 pc

ROIC for FY23 at 23 pc

EBITDA margins at 22 pc

Full yr EBITDA and ROIC includes high RM prices in first 8-9 months of FY23

Gross Debt at 783 cr

Should see significant growth in US business in FY 24. $ 190-200 million should be the trajectory for US base business. This translates to a sale of 6260-6560 cr annual sales vs 5909 cr in FY 23

India OTC business is skewed towards summer months

Expect Advair launch in 12+ months in US

All big products for US Mkts to be filed from 2 sites to de-risk the business

Investing heavily in respiratory and peptides portfolio for next 3 yrs

India business to see impact of price hikes taken by the company in Q1

Continue to be bullish on Galvus sales going fwd

Another 200 or so MRs to be added this year

Revlimid numbers are already in the company’s US business performance

Albuterol is growing well in US

Cipla holding 18 pc mkt share of Lanreotide Injection

Strong growth in Tier-2 to 6 towns in India specially in Respiratory and Anti-Infectives

Aim to hit 22 pc EBITDA margins in FY 24 as well

Simbicort Inhaler to be filed by Q4 of FY 24

Respiratory revenues from US at around 1400 cr range vs total US sales of 5900 cr

SAGA mkts to show some growth in FY 24 plus improved margins

Current cash balance around 5500 cr. Aim to invest most of this in India business

Disc: Hold a small tracking position… mostly for trading purposes unless US Mkt’s pricing pressures go away ( US, by the way is reporting highest drug shortages since 2012-13 ) or they end up acquiring some good India focussed Assets with the 5000 cr+ cash they have on the books

1 Like