Ranvir's Portfolio

Rallis India - Notes from AR 2020-21 -

  1. Company engaged in research, development , manufacturing and sales of - crop protection chemicals, crop nutrients and Hybrid Seeds. Company has 04 Manufacturing plants at -

Ankleshwar, Dahej - Gujarat
Lote, Akola - Maharashtra
Adding 02 new manufacturing plants at Dahej for export markets making formulations and AIs

03 Seeds processing units - 02 in AP, 01 in Chattisgarh

Company has 02 R&D centers at - Bengaluru - Rallis innovation and Chemistry Hub- for cropcare, Hybrid seeds development and agribiotech R&D center - for seeds

  1. FY 20-21 Financials -

Revenues at 2429 cr, up 8 pc
EBITDA at 323 cr, up 24 pc
PAT at 229 cr, up 24 pc

India crop protection sales at 1287 cr vs 1165 cr

India hybrid seed sales - 401 cr vs 364 cr, successfully launched 04 new products. Company has in-licensing arrangements in vegetables and mustard improved performance segment

Filed crops seeds portfolio for crops like - Paddy, Maize, Millet, Cotton and Mustard

Vegetables portfolio - chilli, okara, tomato and Gourds

International crop protection sales at 741 vs 772 cr. Company a trusted supplier to global generic players and innovators. Acquired leadership position in most active ingredients manufactured. Committed to expand product and customer portfolio in contract manufacturing

Launched 04 products in crop protection ( including 03 in house formulation ), 06 crop nutrition products ( including 02 bio pesticides ) in last 01 yr.

Increased dealer network by 5 percent.

Future growth levers - Investment in manufacturing ( Capex ), R&D, brand building and improving internal processes

  1. Company is currently manufacturing - 11 technical grade crop care products ( AIs ) , 112 formulation products

India’s share of agrochemicals - 51 pc insecticides, 25 pc herbicides and 24 pc fungicides. Structurally, the demand for agrochemicals to rise going forward due - better irrigation, current low per acre usage, increasing labour cost, improving irrigation, improving credit availability and higher farm incomes.

Globally - herbicides is the biggest category followed by fungicides and insecticides

Crop care segment wise growth for Rallis - Insecticides grew 4 pc, Herbicides and Fungicides both grew 24 pc each.

Crop nutrition business consists of - Bio Fertilizers, Bio Stimulants, Secondary and Micro nutrients, Water soluble fertilizers, Organic fertilizers and bio pesticides. Crop nutrition business achieved a growth of 22 pc

Seeds - Immense opportunity in India for hybrid seeds. This segment grew 10 pc during the year. Vegetables portfolio grew 20 pc.

  1. World pesticides Mkt at $ 60 billion. India crop care market at $ 6 billion with exports growing at 10 pc and domestic market growing at 8 pc CAGR for last 5 yrs.

Specialty fertilizers segment consisting of - organic fertilizers, bio stimulants, bio fertilizers, water soluble fertilizers, secondary and micro nutrients - gaining popularity in India. Current Mkt size - aprox $ 1.5 billion.

World seed mkt at $ 40 billion with GM and conventional seeds having equal mkt shares. Global mkt is dominated by Corn, Soy, Cotton and Vegetables. Seed mkt is R&D intensive- at par with pharma mkt with R&D spends at 15 pc of sales. Latest technologies - CRISPER, MAB and RNAi. India mkt at $ 2.5 billion, led by BG II traits cotton, hybrid maize and hybrid paddy.

  1. Total Capex for the yr at 168 cr towards expansion of manufacturing facilities and new formulations plant at Dahej. Formulations plant expected to come on line in early part of FY 21-22. Expansion of manufacturing capacity of hexaconazole, metribuzin, kresoxim methyl completed during the yr.

Of the 800 cr capex to be done over 3-5 yrs, 525 cr have been committed. This also includes setting up of a R&D facility at Bengaluru. This will also enable the company to make new AIs currently under development at R&D center.

**Company has taken initial steps in Biological space by launching 2 Bio Pesticides in the PY - reflecting company’s commitment towards technology led sustainable farming. **

Disc : invested, tracking position

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Kajaria ceramics - Notes from Investor release -
World production capacity of Tiles - 12600 million sq meters

Largest producers -

China - 5187 million sq mtr
India - 1266 million sq mtr
Brazil - 910 million sq mtr

In percentages -

Asia - 67 pc
Europe - 15 pc
Central + South America - 10 pc
Africa - 6 pc

Largest consumers -

China - 4424 million sq mtr
India - 780 million sq mtr
Brazil - 802 million sq mtr

In percentages -

Asia - 64 pc
Central + south America - 10 pc
Europe - 12 pc
Africa - 8 pc

Indian tiles Industry Size - 29000 cr
Domestic - 21000 cr
Exports - 8000 cr
Contribution of national brands - 45 pc

Largest players - rankwise -

Kajaria ( 8yh largest in the world )
Prism cements
Somany
Asian granito

Current capacities -

Sikandrabad ( UP ) - 8.4 MSM
Gailpur Rajasthan - 34.3 MSM
Morbi ( via Jaxx - subsidiary ) - 7.6 MSM
Vijaywada ( via Vennar - subsidiary ) - 2.9 MSM
Morbi ( via COSCA - subsidiary ) - 5.7 MSM
Malootana , Rajasthan - 6.5 MSM
Srikalahasti, AP - 5 MSM

Total - 70.4 MSM

Tile wise -

Ceramic - 28 MSM
Polished Vitrified - 20 MSM
Glazed Vitrified - 22 MSM

Diversification -

Bathware - via Kajaria Bathware ( holding 85 pc stake )

Sanitaryware plant in Morbi, 7.5 lakh pc pa
Faucets plant in Gailpur, 10 lakh pc pa

Plywood - via Kajaria Plywood Pvt ltd ( fully owned subsidiary )

Disc : invested, 3 pc of portfolio

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If the industry AUM/GDP is at 15% vs 35% as the global average, the underpenetration in the industry is not that huge. Given the fact that India has ~25% living above GDP per capita, unless I am mistaken, much of the total addressable market has been captured by the industry.

53 lakh unique investors out of 2.2 crores is again a very big number considering the highly competitive industry structure. Doing a pure guess work here, we have around ~30 crore Indians living above the average GDP per capita (middle class + wealthy) and considering a house size of four, we are down to 7-8 crore middle class families. Given the fact that there are already 2.2 crore unique accounts, do you see a multitude of growth in this industry as far as the new account additions are concerned?

Key monitorable for HDFC AMC - recovery in the performance of their Equity schemes which can help them regain their market share losses

Spot on here. A bulk of the growth is performance related as seen with ppfas whose AUM has tripled since last July. It’s all about which fund has higher 1-year, 3-year and 5-year returns and nothing else seems to matter to most people. What according to you are the triggers for this to change? If HDFC manages to get new investors based on this criteria, how sticky is this money? This is definitely not long term money, chasing returns and shifting from funds to funds perhaps is the real risk here

@ranvir , thank you for all the good work. commenting on this post to unlock from 3+ posts threshold and get more clarity on the TAM part

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Hi…

Thanks for the reply.

U may be right in estimating that the extent of under penetration may not be jaw dropping. However, its descent at current levels of per capita income. As the per capita grows and more people get added to the addressable market, the runway for growth may be pretty descent.

Wrt the 3-yr and 5-yr fund performance, I completely agree with you. This is where HDFC AMC needs to pull up its socks. Their biggest funds - HDFC Top 100 and HDFC Mid Cap fund have been underperforming their smaller peers. One of the reasons was the contrarian and more value focused stand taken by Mr Prashant Jain where in he invested a significant portion of his his Funds in PSUs and Utility companies. This strategy did not yield the desired results from 2016 to 2020. However this year, things have started to change. Value ( as mkt defines it ) has started to perform vis a vis growth. If this sustains, these funds may see a nice turnaround. However if they don’t, the stock may languish. Its a key risk - in my mind.

Another thing that one may keep in mind is the advantage that AMC gets because of the HDFC brand name. I think - its a huge advantage, specially iro wealthy clients that the Bank has been able to rope in over a period of time. This is one advantage that may really play out to its full potential if their funds start to out perform.

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The AMC penetration point is especially interesting from a perspective of who you are comparing to. I wanted to check what was the base with you.

Is 35 percent the global average? In that case the under penetration is significant - we are ahead of the curve in our financial ecosystem than several other countries.

Or is 35 percent some other average? If for example it is the developed markets - then it is not as high.

In the very long term I believe we will reach penetration levels slightly lower but not very disparate to developed countries. Hence a good reference base might be the AUM/GDP of the developed nations. That should also bring in the effect of ETFs etc, as these countries have already seen the move to these products.

It would also be useful to benchmark MF industry revenue/GDP. That would give us a good idea of how we are with regard to that in scope - even if the ETF stories play out in India.

Abbott India - Notes from AR 2020-21 -

  1. Main therapy areas addressed by the company in India - Women’s health, Metabolics, Gastroenterology , CNS, Others- include- nutritional supplements, vaccines, insomnia therapy and pain management

  2. Key brands -

Colospa - irritable bowel syndrome
Gonaton - Gastro medicine
Librax - irritable bowel syndrome
Zolfresh - insomnia
Thyronorm - hypothyroidism
Duphaston - IVF, miscarriage
Duphalac- constipation
Digene- antacid
Prothiaden - depression
Influvac- influenza vaccine
Creon - pancreatic insufficiency
Duvadilan - preterm labour
Brufen - analgesic
Enteroshield - prevention of typhoid
Cremaffin - constipation
Vertin - Vertigo
Udiliv - cholestatic liver disease
Most of these brands are category leaders. They command either No 1 or 2 spot in their respective category

  1. New products launched during the year - 15. This includes - Brufen pain relief spray. Another new launch - Digeraft ( in the gastro space - antacid ) has seen tremendous demand and has been the most successful recent launch. Launched new epilepsy medicines in India - Brivetoin and Lacoxa

In order to gain leverage in untapped markets, launched a team to specifically focus on Tier-2 markets

  1. Total sales at 4249 cr, up 4 pc. NP at 691 cr, up 16 pc. EBITDA at 1002 cr, up 15 pc. EBITDA margins at 23.3 pc vs 21.3 pc Other income at 81 cr - interest on Bank FDs. Current investment portfolio at 2300 cr

  2. Segment wise performance -

Women’s health - adversely affected as procedures like IVF were postponed due COVID-19. Overall de-growth of 19 pc during the yr. Biggest brand - Duphaston. Key risk - generic competition in this space

Gastroenterology - grew 7.9 pc led by Cremaffin, Duphalac and Udiliv. Four new launches in this space in the last one year.

Metabolics - grew by 7 pc mainly driven by Thyronorm

CNS - Grew by 10 pc, led by Vertin.Other key brands are - Prothiaden for depression and Inderal for Migraine and Hypertension. Also launched Vertin mouth dissolving strips ( first globally )

Multi- Specialty - Grew by 6.6 pc. Key contributors - Zolfresh, Duvadilan, Brufen and Arachitol ( Vit - D )

Vaccines - grew by 42 pc, led by Influvac.

Consumer health - grew by 15 pc led by Digene

Disc - invested, biased

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Posting my updated portfolio here -

Consumer Staples -

Dabur - 2 pc
GCPL - 2 pc
Tata Consumer - 2 pc
Marico - 4 pc
Radico Khaitan - 1.5 pc
CCL products - 1 pc

Consumer appliance + Construction ancillaries -

Kajaria Ceramics - 3 pc
Havells - 2 pc
Asian Paints - 2.5 pc
Pidilite - 2.5 pc
TTK Prestige - 3 pc
V Guard - 2.5 pc

Specialty Chemicals -

Rallis - 2 pc
Aarti Industries - 2 pc
Galaxy Surfactants - 2 pc

API + CDMO players -

Aarti Drugs - 2 pc
Solara Active - 3 pc
Divis Labs - 6 pc
Laurus Labs - 4 pc
Suven Pharma - 2 pc
Syngene - 2 pc
Hikal - 2 pc
Neuland labs - 3 pc

Traditional pharma + Bio Pharma -

Biocon - 2 pc
Strides Pharma - 2 pc
Ipca Labratories - 3 pc
Cadila Healthcare - 2 pc
Jubilant Pharmova - 3 pc
Abbott India - 2 pc
Gland Pharma - 1.5 pc

Banking + Finance -

HDFC Bank - 6 pc
Kotak Bank - 6 pc
Bajaj Finserv - 9 pc
HDFC AMC - 2.5 pc
Nippon AMC - 2.5 pc

Misc -

KIMS - 2 pc
Praj Industries - 1 pc

Activity in the last one Qtr -

Exit from - HUL, Nestle
Reduction in - Dabur, Marico, GCPL
Additions - Hikal, Suven, KIMS, Praj, Biocon, Gland Pharma, Ipca Labs

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal

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Hi Ranvir,

Just an observation on not seeing Sequent Scientific on the list. Have you deliberately skipped Sequent Scientific; OR you are yet to review it/there is no room for any more pharma stock in your portfolio.

Thanks

What happened according to you? Return expectations suffered?

@sujay85 …Valuations at Nestle India were stretched, in my opinion. Assuming a moderation in terminal PE over a 10 yr period, return expectations were not great. Hence switched over to businesses where I thought returns could be higher

@manoopatil …I have not studied Sequent Scientific in any great detail

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Disc : initiated tracking positions in - La Opala and Ion Exchange

Resorted to mild trimming in Nippon AMC and Havells ltd

Regards
Ranvir Dehal

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Disc : resorted to mild trimming in Bajaj Finserv …due sharp run up and rich valuations

Added : Welspun India … 1 pc of portfolio, tracking position

Regards
Ranvir Dehal

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I like your absolutely brutal way of adding and trimming/exiting stocks - even the great ones…not easy to practice!

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Just a portfolio update -

Exited - CCL products , Rallis India

CCL was a tactical pick. Made a descent return in 3-4 months.

Was uncomfortable holding Rallis India after the Q4 and Q1 results. The management commentary did not inspire confidence.

Trimmed - Strides Pharma

I thought the pricing pressure in their Generics business was brutal.

Initiated tracking positions in - Metropolis, Thyrocare

Added to existing positions in - KIMS

Not a buy / sell recommendation. Just a disclosure

Regards
Ranvir Dehal

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Did you evaluate KIMS vs HCG, valuations wise HCG seems to be better placed.

I’d be interested if you did evaluate both the companies and chose KIMS over the other and why.

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Hi…

Unfortunately I have not analyzed HCG

Thanks

Disc : portfolio update -

Mild trimming in Bajaj Finserv. ( sharp run up makes me a little nervous ) If I had not trimmed Bajaj Finserv over the last 3-4 months, it would have been 18 pc of my portfolio by now.

After repeated trimmings post most sharp rallies, it still hovers around 10 pc of my portfolio. I intend to maintain it near these levels.

Added - Saregama India, Metropolis Labs, Radico Khaitan

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal

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Any reason for adding Radico ?

Isn’t this part of a overly regulated sector that gets adversely effected by government policy

Good selection of stocks n rationale also nicely explained.

whats your view on allocation? Arent too many stocks diluting overall returns?

or Do u follow a Core & trading PF bets?

Hi…

I do like Radico Khaitan as a company. Their track record is good to begin with. At present, they look like doing a very good job as is evident from their Qtly results wherein they r constantly beating the Industry averages and r raking up market share gains. Some of the company strengths include -

No 1 Vodka player in the country - Magic Moments
No 1 Brandy player in the country - Morpheus
Largest exporter of Liquor from India
No - 1 Whisky player in UP - 8 PM

Plus the export only premium brands - Jaiselmer and Rampur are doing really well.

The company is getting a lot of things right. Plus their home state and largest market - UP is growing really well. The state govt is also carrying out a number of reforms in the Liquor retail sector. The same are likely to boost the company and state revenues and is expected to be a win win for all. This is expected to have major rub off effects on states like - Haryana, Punjab etc …all this …going by management commentary.

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal

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