Raj's Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
21

thanku Raj… Can i have your mail id…

22

it’s rajnsharma@hotmail.com

23

Please check your id… Have mailed you…

Regards

mallikarjun

24

Considering the likely pick-up in economy bought some Indusind Bank, L&T, Cummins India, Voltas and EIL over last couple of days. They are now 18% of portfolio. If economy kick starts(looks highly likely) then these stocks should double in less than 2 years.

Still 82% of portfolio is occupied by REPCO, Hawkins, Page, Gruh and MPS. Next 3 months will reduce the allocation further to these compounders and reduce their share to 50% based on the improvement in conviction level of self/market.

25

Raj:

I really like your approach.

You have quite successfully incorporated combination of concentrated port, free of cost method, core& satellite approach.

26

The rally is still a market rally and not earnings rally. I don’t think Modi will have a quick fix to the stubborn economy. It takes some time. But with Modi sentiment moves up. There is one sub-group where the earnings rally is easy and sustainable – Discretionary Consumption space.

OfCourse I am bullish on ING and IndusInd. Though I sold some ING in the rally I am keeping 10% of it. The list of stocks I am bullish is:

Kajaria: With the pickup infra Kajaria should easily do 25-30% volumes.

Mayur Uniquoters: Thanks to VP here. Mayur is a supplier to discretionary consumption space. And ofcourse a small-cap market leader. I think Mayur should see more than 1000 cr revenue in 2yrs.

Atul Auto: everyone knows about this.

and others are VIP, Bata India, Cera Sanitary, Amara Raja and Titan.

Thanks,
Surya.

27

Thanks for the feedback Surya.

My logic is simple …Keep the downside to the minimum. Even if a stable government does not come these stocks will not fall more than 15-20%. Also, the large caps with institutional holding will move faster and fall less if the hypothesis goes wrong. Below is my analysis:

1). L & T, Voltas are an export play to Gulf as well. The sentiments in gulf are reviving and due to Qatar world cup in 2018, both of them will be benefited immensely.

2). Cummins is going to export 30% of it’s products …so again will not fall much.

3). Indusind is quality bank and will also not fall much.

4). EIL is getting out of contracting business and going to focus more on consulting part. Hence it will also have less downside.

28

Hello Raj,

Nice to go through the thread.

Would like to revive it to understand what were your learnings in the past five years. Do you mind sharing your thoughts please?

Also how does your portfolio look now?

Thanks!

29

Hi sir,

It’s been eight years since you last wrote on this thread.

Echoing this to ask you to please share your learnings and how you changed as an investor (if at all) since you last wrote on the thread, if you find time to do so.

Best wishes,

Chins

30

Please do not call me Sir. I am yet to achieve “Knighthood”. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

I have certainly gotten better over the period but still long way to go. Some of my learning are below:

  1. One of my biggest learning of all these years are that your returns depends big on “Allocation”.
  2. Another one is to look for where financial parameters like ROE/ROCE are getting better. Never invest where they are already at the best.
  3. Re-rating is one where big money is made. Both earning and PE need to move up for big gains.
  4. Never buy commodity companies at peak margins
  5. Almost everything is cyclical. They will peak out eventually.

By the way not putting my portfolio any more for scrutiny was a conscious decision. This helped me to be more agile, correct my mistakes faster and get less swayed by opinions which may not be in line with my thought process.

Regards,
Raj

7 Likes