Few Inferences on Afcom Holdings from publicly available information.
Afcom held it’s maiden call in Nov’24 immediately after listing. One thing is clear by now with benefit of perfect hindsight, that Mgmt. gives very aggressive timelines and guidance.
H1 numbers are with 1 or 2 freighters in operation ??
Company claims to operate 2 freighters on dry lease for H1 of FY26. Those freighters are VT-AFO and VT-AFN as per their presentation.
One can track flights on many pubic sites (like flightradar24, adsbexchange etc). While one could find data for VT-AFO the VT-AFN freighter was almost never seen flying during H1 on these sites. There were some rumors that they had disabled the tracking of this freighter on public sites and there were others who said even people of Elon’s influence can’t disable such tracking, as it’s mandatory. So the argument was that only one flight was operational during H1 and mgmt. is misleading the public that both freighters are operational. Then, there was another rumor that one of the freighter was used only as a backup and hence it never flew !?
In Q1, company published an IP and a press release post Q2 results, which gives us some clues on what might be happening, though questions still remain.
No. of trips in Q1 410. = 4.5 trips/day (410/91 days).
No. of trips in Q2 478 = 5.19 trips/day (478/92 days)
H1 Trips/day = 888/183 = 4.85 trips/day
I have been tracking the flight VT-AFO on and off for much of Q1 & Q2 FY26 and it was indeed making very close to 4-5-6 trips per day with some off days in between (like 1-2 days/week). But i doubt if the average trips/day would come close to 4.85 trips/days.
But the twist in the tale is, since sometime in September/October even VT-AFN data is now available for tracking on the public sites. Does that mean, VT-AFN started flying only from Sep-Oct? Or was the tracking enabled only from that time? Not sure.
In free version in these public sites one can track only past 7 days data. Which tells us, the average trips/day for both freighters (7th -12th December)
VT-AFO : 16 trips/ 6 days = 2.6 Trips/day.
VT-AFN : 26 trips/ 6 days = 4.33 Trips/day !!
Combined :
VT-AFO+VT-AFN : 26+16 trips / 6 days = 7 trips/day
So, data is not very conclusive, but there is a fair chance that VT-AFN has only started operating from H2 and we may be seeing a gradual ramp up in trips/day in H2.
Revenue per aircraft per month
They did about 240 cr. of topline for H1 by doing 888 trips, which is 240 Cr./888 = 27 Lacs/trip.
So, assuming each flight did one trip/day , then the revenue number comes to 8.1 cr. per month (27L*90 days).
This doesn’t match up with their revenue projection per flight per month made in the first call. So by now we know enough to take their projections with pinch of salt.
But the trips in H1 were made with average 13.3 Tonnes/trip. And the projection of 20 Cr./month was with 22.5 Tonnes. So maybe we can cut some slack there.
Guidance of FY26 & Beyond.
Mgmt. guided for 700 Cr. topline for FY26 in the AGM held on 25th Sep’25. I.e., 460 Cr. kind of topline for H2. If the VT-AFN has indeed started operation from H2 and the H1 numbers are with one flight only. Then maybe there is a fair chance for 550-600 Cr. topline for FY26.
If margins are maintained then 125-137 Cr. kind of PAT is a possibility for FY26. So it’s available at a valuation of 16-17 times current year.
Future Plans
Mgmt. is working on the plans for induction of more freighters, as can be seen from various updates on
and fund raise through preferential and QIP.
If they are able to even induct one freighter in full operation for next year, there is a good possibility that its available at a forward multiples of high single digit.
Disc: Invested and transactions in last month. Kindly do your own due diligence. Am not a registered advisor. I might add/exit without notifying.