Shares please see.Queries Welcome
Yes, the general consensus is that the secular growth in auto in India would continue, so the investment rationale locally would be different from that in US/Germany/Japan. However, as we are observing around us, the disruption to auto may come not from another auto company, but from metro-rail, cab aggregators etc. Within auto, the 2-wheeler and 4-wheeler address different segments and have different growth triggers.
The second aspect to consider here is to assess which among the existing auto companies would survive in the long term. Premier Auto and Hindustan Motors did not survive once Maruti came on the scene. Are there manufacturers today that would not survive the next ânâ years? Will the big grow bigger and elbow out the smaller players? Or will existing makers survive with changing market shares over period of time?
And you are right, as incomes rise in India, other consumer durables will also grow and again probably have same market characteristics as auto in India. Bluestar, Voltas, Samsung, Aircon will dominate AC market.
Summing up, autos/consumer durables etc appear to be in a different space in India when compared to US.
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Somehow I have seen many Auto companies disappear or go bankrupt. Ideally this contradicts my idea of brands, pricing power etc. Even consumer durable companies go in heavy financial crisis. Makes me think are consumer durables and moreover Autos good companies for real long term buy and hold say maybe 10 years and moreâŚ
Any thoughts on replacing Sterlite with Birla Ericsson. Sterlite is moving range bound, while the latter is having a swift run. Itâd because of low base faster growth and still at low PE. Any thoughtsâŚ
Go thru my advise given to Venkat Anna portfolio thread
Try to pick stocks with those criteria
Thanks @simplyraghav keep sharing 
But both Ashok Leyland and more so Sterlite is having a tough time. Somehow market is punishing them badly. I hold both. But not averaging for now. Whatâs your strategy?
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Superb post @simplyraghav
Your returns in 2017 looks tepid but you managed a small drawdown in 2018. So just looking at returns carefully shows a great improvement. And thanks for being so transparent and open to share your portfolio.
Wish you a great 2019 and investing journey ahead. Keep sharing!!!
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Important rules:
- Donât loose money and
- Donât forget rule one.- Warren Buffet.
U have not lost money in your limited experience and stayed in the market to learn more about yourself, how u invested in the last 2 years (Bull year and Bear year) and holding some great businesses in your PF.
Keep learning and keep going - Happy investing.
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Appreciate for your update. How you feel the proposed election and with Geo-Political uncertainty will affect your portfolio, by putting all money in stock market. I prefer calibrated approach or SIP kind of things which is independent of other risk.
I think, Market is showing signs of bullishness, pre election rally as some experts call it. Without any significant change in fundamentals in EPS or macros like gdp or oil or usd, this rally is sentiment driven. At the same time this holds true in reverse as well when small and midcap kept on falling beyond reasonable levels. SIP and staggered buying seems a good strategy⌠Look forward to your portfolio updates.
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Why do you say that management quality of Sterlite may be an issue?
Market will go into extremes. Dec was extreme down with more than 70% to 90% of stocks below the 40dma and 50dma. Now there are too many stocks in the large cap that are above the 40dma and 50dma. That is signs of bullishness and over extreme.
So, if you have stocks that you want to ween out, it might be time. It might also be time to find your next set of winners from VP forum and start to research. For example, you have Bajaj Auto, but you do not have Eicher. Do you want to SIP into Bajaj Auto or should you add Eicher Motors at the 19xxx low price? You have cash, what are you going to do with it, if we get a correction like Dec with the recession fear?
Also, before March 29th,2019, do you have profits to offset with tax loss harvesting? It might be time to think and save some of taxes, and then buy back the best of the companies in the sector you sold. You will get the same stock / sector back, but with a delay. For example, sell Yes Bank and then buy ICICI Bank later or HDFC Bank later since those are better companies than Yes Bank (if you agree). You get the tax loss and also you are back in the sector.
KKP
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What are your strategy for HDFC life and l&t finance in your finance pack?
Same here for both as these two majorly form my financial pack which is almost 20 percent of my portfolio. L&T fin can really be a dark horse but I am not sure what should be the approach for NBFCs
I have read this discussion off late. But I would like to add my view when you build your portfolio for more than 3-5 years. All Portfolio stocks move in their own orbit of ups and downs. You must look at reviewing them always from Risk Management point of view also. Sometimes you are unable to book gains at good times and then your full one cycle is wasted in waiting for the up move again after months of waiting. I am not a valuation expert but I manage my high concentration scripts with my unique excel algorithms. Can give examples by stating recent downfall in market and exits signals as per my Risk Management Algo Excel. Thanks for sharing your views.