Profit lies where no one is watching: some turnaround plays

All power projects have hige debt because of sheer size of operations.
Like ksk has about 2200mw active capacity and a loan of about lets say 10000cr.
But at full capacity it will genearte a revenue of 10000cr a year.
So we are betting on increase in utilization.

Ashish about 1000 crore is taken up by interest cost every year. I am also very sceptical about such huge debt as sheel choksi above. By when is full capacity likely to be achieved. Can you help us with some EV/Ebitda calculations or maybe EV/MW calculation comparison with peers to show us some undervaluation and chances of a good turnaround. Thanks.

Yes why not.
I dont do it for ksk as its power plants are still in commisioning stage but for rattan power as one of its plant is fully commisioned.
For amaravati plant(1350 mw)
Net sellable enrgy will be 1302mw.
Assume 80% plf due to restructuring of discoms and india growing power demand.

As a thumbs rule, 1mw plant at 100% plf generate 10 million kwh

At 80% capacity, it will generate
0.8X1350 = 1080mw or 1080cr units of electricity.

These 1080mw of plant generate a profit of approx. Rs 2 per unit.

So net ebitda reaches 2160cr.
Now interest expense of 800cr. as it will reduce after first year of operation.
Depr. Of 500cr.
Profit of about 800cr before tax.

The trend can be seen in current quarterly results of rattanpower.

The amaravati plant has acheived cash breakeven and profits have started to increase.

Also we cannot take EV/MW comparison as older units have less capital cost as compared to new ones.

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How did you arrive at this Rs 2 per unit profit?

It would be helpful to understand that also so as to watch event unfold in the stock

According to MOTILAL OSWAL REPORT AVERAGE FUEL COST IS ABOUT 1.5RS UNIT.
AND SELLING PRICE IS 3.4

Ashish

I am sorry but I do not understand again. You mentioned 1.5 as fuel cost and selling price is 3.4. What is the generation cost as a whole, apart from fuel cost?
We have to be very careful to set up this numbers as less profit posted will mean unnecessary disappointment for which we ourselves are responsible.
Again checking on selling price, is there any link or document that mentions that IB Power will sell at particular prices? Any power purchase agreement? What will be cash conversion cycle is also to be factored in.
Pardon me if I am asking very basic question and the reason is that I have just started to study the stock

Thanks
GreyCells

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They have a ppa with maharastra discom at rs 3.25 which have a pass through for imported coal at 1.55 rs per unit in case power is generated using implrted coal.

So they are going to make good money.

Ashish thanks for the post. For KSK I noticed that a decision was expected about conversion of partial linkage for coal from Coal India to permanent linkageb for Mahanadi. The decision was expected by June/July last year. I tried searching but could not find any updates.

I am attaching a Brokerage report by Emkay. It is old but was the most recent one I could find from money control. It does look undervalued even after considering debt. Would you broadly agree with the numbers for FY17. The revenue looks to zoom post the commissioning and if the profit forecast were to be taken true then it is at P/E of only about 6 to 7 currently.

I would be extremely curious to know about your views. Thanks for bringing focus on this company.

KSK-Energy_Emkay_090615.pdf (139.4 KB)

I am quite positive but wait for some correction as it is a high befa stock.

GNFC post steller results. profit at 85Cr. considering the turnaround, i am creating a new topic for it.

a seperate post has been created for GNFC as it has completed its turnaround. for any queries on it, kindly use the new thread GNFC: TURNAROUND TAKING HOLD

KSK post steller results. Net profit of 78 cr. Tamilnadu open access issue sorted in august. Supplying power at 4.91 Rs.

will create a new post for it. also rpower and most probly rattanpower also as they all have turnaround.

I have been tracking Anant Raj for the past few months and finally decided to take a small exposure of .50% last month at Rs.31.

The company has huge land bank in NCR region. The NCR region is expected to grow exponentially and a major change is expected thanks to the new government initiatives and foreign direct investment (FDI) in this region. As a result, the entire NCR region and its hinderland are poised for a major facelift. The ever rising demand from the corporate sector, especially the IT and the BPO Sector, coupled with easy and quick availability of finance at reasonable rates from local institutions and FDIs all contribute to the growth and development the NCR.

One of the major global investors in ARL is the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation. ARL has also entered into a joint venture with Reliance ADAG, one India’ premier industrial groups, for hospitality and infrastructure-related projects. Other prime investors include The George Soros Group and Morgan Stanley. This shows the trust and faith that big players have placed on the management of this company.

Second International Airport on the anvil: Not many investors know that the Ministry of Civil Aviation has recently approved a proposal for developing a second airport for Delhi in the NCR. There are reports that over 2200 acres of land has already been acquired at Jewar, which is in proximity of ARL’s projects. In fact, this factor itself is sufficient for any far-sighted investor with a long-term vision to realize the true value and prospects of the shares of this company.

If the Airport plans in the NCR goes through, I believe this will be a huge trigger for Anant Raj.

However since its a very small company, I will advise that one should invest more than 2% of their portfolio in such stocks. I will look to buy more if it comes to 25-27 level. Patience will be a key here, one should hold with a minimum view of 3-5 years.

Please note that apart from fuel cost there will be approx Rs 1.15 / unit of fixed charges incurred by power company. If you take this into account, they hardly make any money.

That fixed cost is basically depreciation and it also include auxillary power consumed by plant.

Rattanpower made a profit of 25 cr on a plf of 68%.
All the generation greater than that will incur heavy profit margins.

KSK Energy Ventures Ltd. witnessed a block deal of about 8mn shares, or 2.1% of its equity on the BSE.

Why this is going to all time low as the expectation was good for the year 2017 with new operations on roll out.

There is some thing underlying in this story which we are not able to capture.

Its a value trap - promoter has no transparency and a spider web of companies that hold the land assets. You don’t know if the sale proceeds are being correctly recorded or siphoned off.
I was lucky to have bought at 32 and got out at 60-64-66. My mistake actually should not have touched it.

Had invested at Rs.30 level, since its a very small company I have only allocated .50% of my portfolio to it. I do plan to double it once available around Rs.45.

Small company hence Risk always exists, hence do plan to increase exposure beyond 1%.

KSK has just won 8 mn tonnes of coal supply under SHAKTI scheme. any idea on the impact on profits as the company would have to import lower amount of coal now.