Precision Camshafts

I have not looked at this company deeply before. The stock is down a lot after Auditor resignation a week back. But a brief look at the reasons for resignation and management response since then, it suggest to me that stock is seemingly mispriced.

As per filings, Auditos PS Bhagwat resigned siting
i) Delay in getting information/audit report from the company’s new acquisition in Holland (EMOSS)
ii) They claim management took the call to get a joint auditor (MSKA Associates) and they weren’t properly informed.

Story seems previous auditors didnt have the capability to verify accounts of Holland acquisitions. And the foriegn firm was not used to audits. Then later point , company appointed auditors in NL as well as here to audit the accounts. But whole thing took time & delayed the yearly report by a week.

Their NL acquisition EMOSS seems to be profitable and is involved in Electric mobility for trucks and has capability to convert diesel bus/trucks to EV. They also have a German acquistion MFT which services lot of OEMs and has added client like Bosch.

Revenue wise PCL has done 20% YoY in Q1, with 36% PAT YoY. Stock for sometime has been beaten with stick of EV disrupting the company. But the company with EMOSS acquisition has kind of answered they are ready for the change. EMOSS as per earning call has done 3x revenue YoY in Q1FY20.

If I remove the auditor resignation for above reasons + possible EV disruption in 5-10 years, stock is at PB of 0.4 - I feel this is grossly underpriced.

Anyone who track this or anyone with a bit more forensic eye , can you see anything wrong here ?

Disc : Not invested, just tracking.

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Why has their consolidated PAT has reduced by 50%? In investor presentation they have mentioned that, they had to form 2 JVs in China to comply with Fords new business strategy, the company in 2019 has decided to exit from these JVs, does this mean their Ford business will be lost by that delta?

company became lucrative and cash rich But What is there to unlock the run I don’t know
WHY Point 1 DEEP DISCOUNT


Market Cap : 246 Cr
investments : 126 Crores
Cash : 82
Receivable : 140 taking 50% as good i.e 70 Crore
Payable 87 Crore
= 128+82+70-87=193 Crore
TTM + 700 cr Plus with 18% OPM
so company available at deep discount 246 Cr ka maal %# cr main mil raha hai (246-193 =53 Cr )
POINT 2 MARKET LEADER in NICHE FIELD
NOW WILL THE COMAPNY WILL SURVIVE NEXT 3 to 5 YEARS ===> YES
POINT 3 : Promotor has not sold a single share in last yea despite of the sharp correction the mainly correction due to head wind in the sector as whole . ref : https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/b584460d-9289-4b4b-8713-93db5559ca78.pdf

Disc: I was invested in Past but still not made my mind to enter as I am short of cash fully invested . This si not any recommendation to buy sel l or hold . the company share price may dip further so study the company

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https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/77c664e4-66ad-46e9-a7c5-ad6370c49ac4.pdf

Not a great jump however a good reasonable set of PAT. They are growing in India very well as well as with the other countries.
Debtor days reduced the company is paying back its borrowings
Growing set of inventories
Good set of dividends
Fair Valuation
Good set of acquisitions
Main concern about Cash Flow - Going forward we might see improvements due to reopening of market sales - Q1 quarter had hit badly, hoping to see some improvements in Q2 & Q3 respectively

My understanding to the current scenario is very limited - as per the cyclical & commodity nature - the demand in tractors or other set of irrigation/agriculture facilities need camshafts. We might see good supply going this monsoon and post monsoon

The company caters to automotive and non automotive industry… for next 5 years the company is seeing a increase in PAT & EBIDTA margins as per mentioned in concall.
The company has acquired EMOSS a company which is engineered in converting diesel engine truck or automotive to electric one.
Emoss has about 300 product designs and caters to Europe and Netherlands markets - they will bring this engineering to India to cater domestic needs in making of electric truck, bus, passenger vehicle and other needs

Due to acquisition and other capex there was a hit on the NP margins going ahead - the company looks to grow the balance sheet and since Bosch is their main growth in terms of books they are also looking more to expand…

Mostly next 3 year - we wont see any impact going ahead when EV comes into a strong competition the company needs to be ready to cater domestic needs - if they stick to camshaft and if we dont see any value adds in EV sector in near 2-3 years i guess then we need to head back to drawing board again

Currently EMOSS stands at 50 crore : the company is looking for growth upto 120 crore by 2021

Current capacity utilization : 70-75% (if the capacity utilization goes to 90% then they can generate revenue about 450-500 crores which is more than their market capital (however these include subsidiary business))
EMOSS is under 5% EBITDA
MFT is in the range of 8% to 10% EBITDA
Nasik subsidiary in India is about 18% to 20% right now EBITDA

Niche : Precision Camshafts are almost a single source to most of the OEMs in India
70% market share in India

Precision Camshaft focus on passenger vehicles which are used to manufacture Camshafts for tractors, railways,two wheeler & everything,

Companies commentary on electric cars and Camshafts growth : We actually do not see much of a reduction in combustion engine at least for the next Five Years.
we are very close to the ground with OEM customers. We see what their forecast are there invest
plans for combustion engines. So, if you look at it we have a solid plan at least the next five
years in terms of new orders that we have from around the world. If you look at it electric
passenger vehicles are of the global new vehicles that are produced. So, to ask this is not a short or medium challenge for Camshaft business, it is down the line type of issue, but I think with
EMOSS being part of PCL now we are actually growing the company very fast. I mean we
acquired the company it was about say 50 crores of sales we are talking about more than 120 crores of sales this year. So, it is very fast growing I think the commercial vehicle space has been quite in terms of electrification, so we have good hold in that right now at least.

Management focuses not just on Camshafts but also other OEM products such as balancing shafts, two-ball bars, bearing caps

Disc : Took a entry position

@Shikhar @yourraj can you share your views if you are aware about the company… i started learning this from this week.
Looks like niche player in Camshafts and has good set of clients.with cyclical wave

Highlighted are the profit for the year : 2020 | 2019 : YOY 262% increase in revenue

Indian revenues are growing up, smart move by management to come out of China market earlier itself… Currently they are focusing on sales after acquisition done so far reaping the fruits… also simultaneously working for electric upgrade.
Standalone Financials :

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I don’t know their value proposition of converting Indian IC-engine vehicles into full electric vehicles for the Indian market - will this work?

Because in India many trucks that are running on roads are very old one’s and whereas in other countries - i understand that trucks are neat clean and can be replaced easily to electric with less cost.

Am not sure about cost consumption story of converting IC engine to electric engine - if so?
At what cost?
How old trucks?
Why there cant there be a company who gives at reasonable value new trucks rather than converting at same cost for old trucks?

  • Is this B2B or B2C story?

Needs to find out - News Article please read about the story of company

  • Trimmed some position to enter at 28-30 levels

@ayushmit any inputs?

Seems like a safe counter why then are the mutual funds exiting from this counter if they have seen the worst in the last 3 years?

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Capex and acquisitions that was happening since past 2-3 years.
Am not sure why Mutual fund exited - this might be another reason that earning growth/capex and debt - wherein company was not able to deliver due to the ongoing expense.

Now the capex has been done they have posted good results and holds major part of camshafts business across the world.

They have relatively low leverage and liquidity continues to be strong

Yes am quite bit pessimistic about the growth during this covid times - all auto stocks are tanking the fundamentals however technical side of it is just bubbling up.

I had exited my position at 36 - looking to re enter after December when the dust settles.

Moved my positions to Pokarna - you can see my post in Asian Granito page for analysis : Asian Granito (AGL) - Another Kajaria in making

Disc : This is not a recommendation of buy/sell - am not an SEBI analyst. Please do your due diligence on contacting your financial advisor or learn about the markets.

stock is not showing any great buying interest even at such lower valuations ,its subsidiary are still in loss,profits are being eaten away by loss of subsidiaries,on downward trajectory stock can again touch 30 levels

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Precision Camshafts Q2 FY23 Con call Imp points:
• EMOS- 55.98 CR income- continues to face headwinds due to short supply of constraints, looking to add additional manpower for this division
• Standalone business EBITDA margins have reduced from 20+ % to 15-16%- Mainly due to commodity price increase & higher export realisation component in previous qtrs.- sustainable is close to 20-25% once short-term issue resolves
• Have started supplying braking systems from standalone non camshaft business – this non camshaft revenue component is expected to pick up in coming times
• Confident of EMOSS – as have strong order book visibility extending up to FY24- problems faced are component shortage or postpone of delivery, though there is no cancellation
• ELCV conversion of diesel vehicle to E-vehicle is in sub 4MT category- it’s a value proposition for buyer as there is 70-80% saving on operations & thus break even cost for customer for electrifying vehicle is 2 years post which savings add to his cashflow.
• Will do conversion for first few years directly rather than distribution as it’s a niche technology as of now
• Vehicle certification is left, post which commercialisation opportunities will start – expectation is early next year
• Working on even non engine components in standalone business, apart from braking, details of which cannot be shared as of now- however will re-emphasise that camshaft business still is getting lot of traction
• Standalone business sees very strong order book for 5 years
• For machine camshaft is at 85% capacity utilisation & 75% for cast camshaft division. Will need additional capex if order book further increases & generally capex to revenue is 1:1 ration in our business. Maximum should be at low 90 levels for both the divisions before new capex is to be evaluated. Not looking at expansion as of now.
• Alpha between export & domestic business is 5-7% (exports being higher)
• Solar power plant will be commissioned in next 2 months most likely (10-15cr annual saving expected from this)
• Looking at quite a few strategies like multi sourcing components, setting some supplies in India to counter uncertainties in Europe, however Macro environment there is still eveloving, leading to order execution delays

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AS i said the stock can correct ,stock down from 180 to 90 odd levels ,can come down to 60 levels also if market corrects more

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Can someone give a outlook on the story here. They are talking about retrofitting of LCV to e-LCV. What would be total market play. Numbers basis the business does look extremely overvalued. How is it that on sub -10 ROE and ROCE you are valued at PE of 58.

Investor Question 1: I wanted to talk about the – can you talk a bit more about the sub-4-ton LCVs launch in India? You mentioned that you started delivering, but these are test vehicles right now. So canyou talk a bit about when would you do a full-scale formal launch? And what’s the outlook for that business from here on?

Karan Shah: Yes. Thank you for the question. I think, yes, as I mentioned in previous calls, we have ample customers across India who are in the e-commerce space, who are in the FMCG space, who are – bodies, large fleet owners, third-party logistics companies, etcetera. And we have started the deliveries of these electrified – vehicles with these customers from the last month, and we continue to do the deliveries in this month. These vehicles will, of course, go through extensive testing in the use case of these customers, which would be anywhere between 3 to 6 months. But in parallel, we are also scaling up the operations so that we are able to cater to the demand once that is confirmed and finalized. Unfortunately, I cannot give you an exact outlook in terms of what the order book looks like because it’s still in the initial phases. But I think the only addressable market that I can talk about, of course, is what I have been saying in the past that there are more than 2 million vehicles running on Indian roads today, and we are associated with some of the largest players in the space who we are able to provide a retrofit solution to. So even a very small percentage of that, if we can address and if we can get it, would be still large numbers for this year.

Investor Question 2: Got it. And you mentioned that the TCO would be much better than the diesel version over 7, 8 years. And how would the TCO compare with the new Tata Ace EV that the OEM has? Let’s say, an existing Dost owner can always sell his – sorry, Tata Ace owner can always sell his Tata Ace and buy a fresh new EV from Tata versus going for our solutions. How do those two scenarios compare? Is it still compelling for the customer?
Karan Shah: Yes. I mean, look, because you’re retrofitting your existing vehicle, you don’t pay the entire cost of purchasing a new vehicle, right? So the cost of conversion minus the vehicles, minus the base vehicle, is surely lower than buying a brand-new vehicle. That’s for sure. So I think the choice that a customer has 5 years into using a vehicle is, should I pay x amount of rupees to convert this existing vehicle into electric and I can basically reap the same benefits of electrification, which is the lower operating cost, lower maintenance cost, etcetera. Or shall I go and buy a new one, which will be more than that x rupees, which it would cost to convert

Investor Question 3: Yes, but I’ll also be able to sell my existing vehicle in the second-hand market. So do you think the sale proceeds from the second-hand vehicle plus the cost of conversion will be lower than the cost of the new vehicle?
Karan Shah: That is what we are targeting to be, but I can’t answer that specifically today.

Investor Question 4: So I have a question. So first is that where is the camshaft business planning for the growth for the next three years? What is the plan? What is the plan for the next three years where the camshaft business is going to grow?
Karan Shah: I think we see very good visibility for the camshaft business. We have long-term contracts with most of our domestic as well as international customers. And we actually see – you’ve seen over the last, let’s say, two years also, we have grown the camshaft business in terms of casting as well as the machine camshafts, and we continue to see that trajectory. I cannot give you a forward-looking number in terms of what we expect the revenue to be. But we are setting up a few machining plants. We have been awarded assembly camshaft business from OEM customers. We actually see growth in the camshaft business in the coming years.

Investor Question 5: Okay. And the next question is, what are the steps you have taken to increase margins in the camshaft business?
Karan Shah: I think one of the bigger actions that we have taken is to set up this large solar power plant in the casting business, a considerable amount of our costs are energy. And by setting up this 15- megawatt solar plant, I think we have reduced the cost of power considerably. And I think other efforts on the material side, as well as machining equipment side are ongoing. But I think the power
cost was a large factor, and that has been more or less reduced by, I would say, 30%, 35% by the solar plant. we start the solar – we have saved approximately INR1 crore from July per month.

80c6a995-97cf-43f6-841e-9bdda69516af.pdf (bseindia.com)

problem in precision camshafts is stock is trading above pe of 50 ,and results are not that good

Great insights on today’s press release :slightly_smiling_face:
c9afddcf-d92f-480f-9145-15bbb0cd0bca.pdf (bseindia.com)

Did anyone attend the conference call?

Assume I am an interested party in everything I comment upon. :shushing_face:

Hello,
I recently started to look at the company and it looked interesting.
While the overall topline has grown from 440Cr (around IPO) to 1000Cr+, similar growth is not seen in the bottom line. rather the profits are down, due to the loss making subsidiaries.
In fact the camshafts business has grown at a slow pace from 440Cr in 2016 to 600Cr+ in 2023. The doubling of revenue is due to adding of revenue from acquired companies and growth of EMOSS in topline.

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PCL SA 443 401 424 443 381 512 626
EMOSS 71 97 133 174 231
MFT 159 169 158 162 171
MEMCO 47 40 36 51 53

Based on the strategy adopted by the company, going forward, I believe following drivers will contribute to the growth of the company.

  1. Camshafts business will continue its slow growth.
  2. EMOSS in Europe will grow once faster once Europe picks up.
  3. Retrofitting/converting business in India will grow.
  4. OEM business, which the company is aiming for, will also add to the business, but this will take time and will require significant CAPEX.

The story is looking exciting for the company, the management is measured and taking the right steps. Slowly and steadily they are building new businesses/revenue streams. Profits are slow to come by though.

Disc: have tracking position

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