Post budget
…Restructuring support to sugar sector:
In the last few years, there appears to be a structural change in the way Union Budgets support the sugar industry. Earlier, the support was mainly provided via general financial assistance, giving out loans for co-generation projects or for producing ethanol from alcohol. Now, the focus is singularly on the scheme for extending financial assistance to sugar mills for augmentation of ethanol production capacity.
About Rs 450 crore is budgeted under this scheme in FY25. This aligns well with the ongoing aggressive E20 mandates of the country where India aims to achieve 20 per cent blending of ethanol in fuel by ESY 2025-26 (ethanol supply year from 1 November to 31 October). The blending rate last year was 12 per cent and about 75 per cent of the ethanol for blending came from sugarcane-based derivatives…
Praj Industries:
Many vectors of growth. And each of those vectors can lead to birth of multiple industries.
Underlying all these growth areas is fundamental science - wherein biological processes replace chemical processes to produce end products.
Did anyone else notice the new logo placed in Praj’s customer list? 
“Praj has orders for five large CBG projects worth 500 crore from a leading business conglomerate” <— Could it be that this leading business conglomerate they have been referring to is indeed RIL! If so, this is a pretty big insight!
Although dated, but pretty helpful video on Praj - especially the business cycle analysis part.
Praj Industries- changing orbits
Turnover ~$400M
Each SAF plant is a $400M opportunity for Praj
20 SAF (AtJ) plants needed just in US alone in 5yr, Praj is a top contender.
From concall 
Add to that,
- SAF opportunity in India, EU & RoW
- 1G E25, Biodiesel, 2G, CBG
- ZLD, PHS biz
- futuristic Bioploymer biz
SAF will a huge biz opportunity for Praj till at least 2050. Check the image below. 20 SAF plants over next 5yr (each ~$400M opportunity for Praj) and then 20 SAF plants every year from 2030-2050 in US alone !!!
Interesting read on SAF in US:
The Challenge Ahead: A Critical Perspective on Meeting U.S. Growth Targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Crude oil taken out from ground is converted in oil refineries into fuel (Petrol, Diesel, Jet Fuel, etc) & Naptha.
Naptha is hydrocracked to produce polymers which are the building blocks for man-made materials such as plastic, textiles, etc
After conquering fuels, Praj has now entered materials side of crude-oil applications
Biomaterials will replace many/most crude oil derived materials over next 30yr. This is again trillions of dollars opportunity
Plus,
Natural growth in fuel demand + service biz (O&M +performance enhancer materials) for new plants give Praj a multi-decade runway for very high growth.
Newsflow - Lately, mgt commentary on CBG has turned encouraging on the order pipeline
(500Cr orders received by Praj), RenGas produces 30% higher yield than its comps
This was already know information. Why do a release midway and give this 3x guidance, one month post the results?
And what an over reaction in the stock. Is it possible that they plan to do a QIP soon?
Praj current order book is 4,000cr.
I expect it to cross 7000-8000cr in the next 6-12 months.
Praj has a strategic tie-up with Gevo, the leader in AtJ route for SAF production. Both have a high degree of mitual dependency for successful delievry of the SAF plants at scale.
Gevo’s first SAF plant, NZ-1 project, is close to finacial close with loan gurantee from US DOE, after which Praj would be getting an order of around ~300Million USD from Gevo, in the next 3-9 months i believe. Gevo’s overall plant design is based on Praj’s modularization design to be manufactured by Praj at its new facility in Mangalore.
As mentioned earlier, SAF is a huge huge opportunity for Praj.
Apart from the US, Indian avaition fuel market is about a third of the US at 0.5 Mil barrels a day n growing v rapidly vs the US at 1.5 Mil barrels a day.
If India were to go the full SAF route like the US, then India will need at least 7 SAF plants each year, each with a $400M opportunity for Praj with Praj being the only Indian player offering this service of EPC with technology.
One important thing to note, Biofuel is not so much about the environment but more about the farmers n the vote bank in India n the US n all nations which are big in agriculture.
Therefore, the opportunity size for Praj is so big that its diifcult to fathom. Its really at the cusp of orbit change.
After EVs and Hydrogen cell vehicles, now there is talk of 100% ethanol vehicles. India seems to be taking the lead in this direction:
Too early to consider anything from this. Also if Ethanol is more of a sustainability play, with Donald Trump coming in who doesnt put too much emphasis on global warming the possibility of envisaged projects in the US may null out or considerably reduce.
India’s first sustainable road using lignin-based bio-bitumen marks a milestone for Praj Industries’s proprietary, indigenous technology.
Nitin Gadkari ji unveiled it at Nagpur NH-44.
Glad to see this - Not just from Praj perspective, but if this turns successful, it is a good change towards sustainability - Environmentally and economically
Bio-bitumen is a 4500cr market growing at ~12% between Fy24 & Fy25.
(India imports 50% of total bitumen requirement worth 30,000cr. At 15% blending rate for bio-bitumen with bitumen, 4500cr worth of bio-bitumen will be required which will keep growing at 12% based on last year’s growth rate).
ea5a7f99-68da-47d8-81f1-750c0ac660d3.pdf
As I mentioned here:
And here
Praj has so many vectors of growth, that it is a bit difficult to fathom. And it is right at the cusp of orbit change with respect to the earnings currently versus the earnings that we will see in 3-4 years.