Pragnesh's portfolio

Carysil

Q4-2025 concall

FUTURE GROWTH TRIGGERS

1…Quartz sink

=Quartz sinks grew at a 12% CAGR

A…Kaaran(lowe’s business via kaaran)

=Significant contract via customer KARRAN with a major US retail chain (Lowe’s) to supply 150,000 quartz sinks across 1,800+ stores.

B…Ikea(for quartz sink)

=Bidding for a global tender from IKEA which can increase their market share with IKEA from 25% to 75% in quartz sink. This is a non US tender. Final quality check and approval can happen within 60 days

=Currently 10% of their revenue comes from IKEA.

2…Steel sink

=Three-year CAGR: 20%, scaling to 155,000 units in FY25

=Breakthroughs with Kohler India, Hafele, ongoing supplies to IKEA (scored high in quality tests), and rising inquiries from US/EU.

=US and EU tariffs on China/Vietnam have resulted in “overwhelming response” for Indian steel sinks.

=Product Innovation: Introduction of 1.2mm thickness steel workstations (20% above standard) for differentiation; investment in second PVD machine for both domestic and export demand.

3…Kitchen faucet business
It grew 40% over last few years, with strong growth expected in FY26

4…Countertop & Surface Solutions

=New Category: Investment in India’s first organized kitchen and bathroom countertop fabrication facility (Delhi + 2 more centers this year).
=Cary Stone: Launching proprietary surface brand leveraging fabrication tech from UK/US subsidiaries for seamless sink-countertop integration.

5…CAPEX

=CAPEX: Rs 45 crore in FY25 (Rs 12 crore in Q4 alone), mainly for machinery, equipment, and moulds.

=CAPEX Plan: Rs 50 crore for FY26 (expansion across sinks, fabrication, appliances); further expansion to be decided based on demand sustainability.

A…Quartz sink
=Restarting Plant-4 (250,000 units capacity), which had been shut due to a downturn. Immediate investments earmarked for new moulds and infrastructure; additional capacity enhancement will be reviewed post ramp-up.

B…Steel sink
CAPEX of Rs 7-10 crore to add 70,000 units (total capacity to reach 250,000 units), operational by Q3 FY26.

C…Appliances & Faucets
Assembly/manufacturing of kitchen hoods and faucets commenced; current faucet assembly at 30,000-35,000 units/year, targeting 100,000 by year-end.

6…Geography

A…UAE

=Business Mix Shift: 80% appliances, 20% sinks (reversed from earlier).

=won a major contract with Emaar, UAE’s biggest developer.

=Showroom Expansion: Second showroom (3,000 sq. ft.) opening in Sharjah on Sheikh Zayed Road.

=The UAE subsidiary delivered strong growth in the appliance segment.

B…UK
=Carysil and its subsidiaries now among the top three kitchen category performers.

=Exclusive supply agreement with Howdens (largest UK kitchen manufacturer, 80,000-100,000 sinks/year).

C…USA

=Confident of turning profitable in FY26

D…Domestic

=Dealer Network: Expanded from 1,500 to 4,000 dealers; gallery count to grow from 140 to 200 by year-end.

=Domestic Revenue Target: Ambitious plan to grow India revenue by 25-30% to Rs 170-180 crores in FY26, with a mid-term vision to double to Rs 300 crores and long-term to Rs 500 crores.

=Distribution: 80% B2C, 20% B2B; leveraging existing channels but also tying up with large electronics retailers (e.g., G Mart in Kerala)

10…Future growth guidance

=Revenue Guidance: 15% YoY growth targeted for FY26 (~Rs 925-930 crore), with potential to reach Rs 1,000 crore annualized run-rate by Q3/Q4.

=EBITDA Margin Guidance: Management reiterated 18-20% margin band

Disc…invested

1 Like

Mold tek packaging

Concall may 2025

MOAT

A…Tool room and various molds
That is strong moat. Very difficult for other companies and strong entry barrier.

B…Pharma USP: Rapid mold and product development due to in-house tool room—“Mold-Tek could do it in 1.5 to 2 months vs. 4-5 months for competitors.

=The point what Mold-Tek is trying to drive to pharma companies is our ability to develop new products faster than anybody else. Even the leaders in pharma packaging, we are in a position to meet or exceed them in terms of new product development.

================

Future growth triggers

1…Pharma

=As an opportunity, pharma is a huge
opportunity, close to Rs. 5,000 crores opportunity, including both exports and the Indian market.
So, even if we reach 1% to 2% of the market share, it will be close to Rs. 100 crores.

=By end of 1st year itself, company
achieved over 50% capacity
utilization to reach Breakeven level.
Further capacity expansion across
product mix planned by Q1/Q2.

=Out of 20+ pharma clients who cleared audits, only 4-5 have started commercial buying; more expected to ramp up.Huge opportunity ahead.

2…FMCG

A…Printing capacity
enhancement for handling
seasonal demand

FY 25 F&F growth of 11.76% as the new printing capacities started improving quarterly numbers

B…Square pack
FY 25 growth of 17.34% fueled by detergent segment and cashews

3…Paint

A…Aditya Birla steady growth
Aditya Birla Group (ABG): Capacity enhancement (brownfield) at Cheyyar and Panipat, operational from March/April.

B…Asian paints
IML adoption
Increased IML adoption; all four plants (Hyderabad, Satara, Vizag, Mysore) now equipped for IML production.

4…Lubricants

=Long term contracts to safe-guard volume share from industry leaders like Gulf, Shell, Castrol

5…Capex

A…pharma
-Capacity Expansion:
Current: 1,500 TPA; ramping up to 3,000 TPA by March 2026.

-Capex: Adding 5 new injection molding machines; molds arriving by June.

-Land: Applied for 2.5 acres adjacent to existing Sultanpur facility for future pharma expansion.

B…Printing Capex: Over Rs. 25 crore invested in flexo, offset, die-cutting, and rotogravure machines; printing capacity up >70%.

Capex and Capacity Developments
FY25 Capex: ~Rs. 140 crore (higher than earlier guidance of Rs. 70-80 crore), split between pharma, printing, and incremental paint capacity.
FY26 Capex Guidance: Rs. 70-80 crore.
Pharma: Rs. 20-25 crore for machinery/buildings; Rs. 10 crore for land acquisition.
Mahad plant: Rs. 14-15 crore.
Printing: Rs. 7-8 crore.

Disc…invested

1 Like

My journey started in sept 2017.
Till now i have sold less than 5% stocks.

Portfolio has given 28.76% XIRR(cagr) return during 2017-2025 .(dividend not calculated) v/s index return of 14.36%

As per peter lynch, if 2-3 stocks out of 10 stocks give extra ordinary performance, overall portfolio will have nice return.

However, we dont know, which stock will perform better than others. So we have to keep most good stocks for atleast 5 yrs before taking any decision to sell.
(That is my belief)

-Portfolio retturn @28.76% xirr(2017-2025)
-Performance of stocks(2017-2025)

1…>30% cagr return

Anup eng@ 62% cagr(4 yrs)
Kpr mill@49.88% cagr(5yrs)
Beta drugs@ 48% cagr(4 yrs)
Kei@46% cagr(5.5 yrs)
Pitti eng @43% cagr@ 3 yrs
Lt foods @ 41% cagr(5yrs)
Ion exhange @ 37% cagr(4.3 yrs)
Carysil@33% cagr@4.4 yrs

2…18%-30% cagr return

Ganesha eco @25.5% cagr(4yrs)
Ratnamani@25% cagr@5.3 yrs
Grauer@22% cagr(6yrs)
Alkyl amine@ 22% cagr@5yrs
Pix trans18.57% cagr@ 3.2 yrs

3…10-15% retrun(mediocre return)

Racl@13%@3.3yrs
Stylam@ 11% cagr@ 4yrs
Moldtek@10.5% cagr(6yrs)

4…Flat/ negative return
Apcotex@6% cagr(5.5yrs)
Paushak@2.8% cagr(5 yrs)
Astec@(-5% ) cagr
Hindware@(-7.4)% cagr@ 3.3 yrs

5…Recent( bought within 1-2 yr)
Prevest
Ice make
Bew eng
Jyoti resins
3b blackbio
Kaka ind

1…I will continue to hold above stocks
until fundaments change

2…Chemical stocks have given worst return .However post corona, there is headwinds for whole chemical industry. So i will hold them and waiting for their better performance

3…Hindware has performed worst.
-Waiting for better capital allocation post split

4… For Recently bought stocks like kaka, bew etc

=I normally hold stocks for minimum 5 yrs before taking decision .

So i will hold them until fundaments change


13 Likes

Moldtek packaging

Concall may 2025

MOAT

A…Tool room and various molds
That is strong moat. Very difficult for other companies and strong entry barrier.

B…Pharma USP: Rapid mold and product development due to in-house tool room—“Mold-Tek could do it in 1.5 to 2 months vs. 4-5 months for competitors.

=The point what Mold-Tek is trying to drive to pharma companies is our ability to develop new products faster than anybody else. Even the leaders in pharma packaging, we are in a position to meet or exceed them in terms of new product development.

=================

1…Pharma

=As an opportunity, pharma is a huge
opportunity, close to Rs. 5,000 crores opportunity, including both exports and the Indian market.
So, even if we reach 1% to 2% of the market share, it will be close to Rs. 100 crores.

=By end of 1st year itself, company
achieved over 50% capacity
utilization to reach Breakeven level.
Further capacity expansion across
product mix planned by Q1/Q2.

=Out of 20+ pharma clients who cleared audits, only 4-5 have started commercial buying; more expected to ramp up.Huge opportunity ahead.

2…FMCG

A…Printing capacity
enhancement for handling
seasonal demand

FY 25 F&F growth of 11.76% as the new printing capacities started improving quarterly numbers

B…Square pack
FY 25 growth of 17.34% fueled by detergent segment and cashews

3…Paint

A…Aditya Birla steady growth
Aditya Birla Group (ABG): Capacity enhancement (brownfield) at Cheyyar and Panipat, operational from March/April.

B…Asian paints
IML adoption
Increased IML adoption; all four plants (Hyderabad, Satara, Vizag, Mysore) now equipped for IML production.

4…Lubricants

=Long term contracts to safe-guard volume share from industry leaders like Gulf, Shell, Castrol

5…Capex

A…pharma
-Capacity Expansion:
Current: 1,500 TPA; ramping up to 3,000 TPA by March 2026.

-Capex: Adding 5 new injection molding machines; molds arriving by June.

-Land: Applied for 2.5 acres adjacent to existing Sultanpur facility for future pharma expansion.

B…Printing Capex: @ Rs. 25 crore printing capacity up >70%.

=FY25 Capex: ~Rs. 140 crore (higher than earlier guidance of Rs. 70-80 crore), split between pharma, printing, and incremental paint capacity.

FY26 Capex Guidance: Rs. 70-80 crore.

APCOTEX CONCALL Q4-2025

Concall Notes - May 2025

FUTURE GROWTH

1…Volume
=highest-ever quarterly volume

2…Export
=Highest export volume

3…Margin
Margin improved to 11%

=Margin Drivers: Higher volumes, improved capacity utilization, operational efficiencies.

Margin

=Post-COVID capacity additions (especially in nitrile latex) led to margin compression. Management expects margin normalization as capacity utilization improves and excess capacity is absorbed.

=Overcapacity Post-COVID: “More capacity was added in the last two years in nitrile latex than the previous 10-15 years.” This has led to low industry utilization and margin pressure.

=Management expects more rational capacity additions going forward, as the “post-COVID capacity gold rush” is over.

=Long-Term Margin
=On Industry Cyclicality: “Earlier our margins were between 3% and 8%… Now what we are looking at is 10% and 15% between good years and bad years.”

=We expect the margins to normalize at about 14-15%… even in years that have been very challenging, we have achieved margins of about for the last two years close to around 10%.” Without nitrile latex drag, margins would have been ~12%.

=Management is cautiously optimistic on margin recovery and growth, but flags “uncertainty” due to US tariffs and global overcapacity, especially in nitrile latex.

4…NBR
-95% capacity utilization
-Stable margin
-Waiting for Anti dumping

5…N.L
-75% capacity utilization
-Q4 saw improvement in margins, but overall margins remain under pressure
-Gold rush of corona is over, so margin will improve

6…Other Latexes (SB Latex, Styrene Acrylic, etc.)

=Non-nitrile latex volumes grew 8-10% YoY.

7…HSR (High Styrene Rubber)

  • Now only ~5% of business, with declining volumes. Management is not investing further here.

8…Capex
=Over Rs. 200 crores invested in two expansion projects in the last two years.

=We expect we will be okay till perhaps the middle of next financial year. So, we should have enough capacit

9…ROCE
=On Capacity Expansion: Will be “measured,” with a focus on maintaining 20-25% ROCE.

=================

Moats

A…Diversification

=Our main objective should be

1…No product should be more
than 15% of our overall product portfolio and

2 …No customer should be more than 2%.

=That is something we learned the hard way over the years.

B…Margin

Before 10 yrs margin was 3-7% during bad time/ good time.

Now margin is 10-15% during bad time/ good time.

=Due to this diversification , we are able to stabilize margin.

===================

2 Problems at present

1…Nitrile latex
(Overcapacity is problem post covid))

2…NBR
(Dumping is problem)

Ganesha eco

May 2025

Concall Notes

PERFORMACE

1…Crossed Rs. 200 crore in EBITDA and Rs. 100 crore in PAT for the first time.

2…Raw material
=Raw bottle scrap prices soared all time high during the quarter though prices have started to cool-off during May, 2025.

3…rPET fibre(rPSF)(textile)

=Legacy business ( rPSF fibre and granules) under pressure due to:

A…High input (scrap bottle) prices,
-High volatility in scrap bottle pricing, driven by increased exports of washed PET flakes (intermediate).

B…Crude price down , widening gap between vpsf and rpsf

4…rPET granules(bottle)

=Sales Volume of rPET granules moderated due to rising gap between virgin and rPET granules

=Gap widened to 30–35% due to falling crude (lowering virgin PET) and high bottle scrap prices

=Food-grade rPET granules “set a new benchmark in the industry.”
80% capacity utilization for rPET

=High entry barrier in rPET: “Very highly technical product…not everyone will be able to manufacture very high quality rPET production.”


FUTURE GROWTH TRIGGERS

1…rPET granules

=Strategically realigning product portfolio towards high-margin, value-added products(rPET granules)

=rPET fibres v/s rPET granules capacity

2023@ fibre@90% granules@0%
2024@ fibre@80% granules@10%
2025@ fibre@50% granules@20%
2027@ fibre@ 40% granules@50%

So company has kept fibre capcity constant while hugely expanded high margin rPET granules capacity from 2024 to 2027

2…Value added portfolio

=Value-added products currently ~40% of mix; targeted to rise to 55–60% in two years.

=Value-added product portfolio growing (antimicrobial fiber, hollow conjugated fiber, dyed fibers, etc.).

=End-user industries for value-added products: geotextiles, automotive, carpets, technical textiles, apparel, and home textiles.

=Focus on increasing market share in technical textiles and
household textiles sector.

3…Stabilization and ramp-up of Warangal and new capacities.

4…CAPEX:

Rs. 725 crore over 2 years; Rs. 90–100 crore already spent.
Fully funded; no immediate funding concerns.

A=600cr@orissa@greenfield
@67,500 MTPA@rPET granules @by H1FY27

B…125cr@warangal@brownfield
@22,500 MTPA @rPET granules @ Q4FY26

5…EPR Mandate & Plastic Waste Management Rules

=EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) mandates 30% recycled content from April 1, 2025.
Management: “Plastic waste management rules…have also been implemented as per the schedule.”
Initial compliance slow; many brands still ramping up rPET usage.

6…Future growth guidance

=FY26 Revenue Guidance:
Rs. 1,700–1,750 crore (revised down from earlier Rs. 1,800–1,900 crore due to muted base business and stable rPET volumes).

=FY27 Revenue Guidance:
Dependent on new capacity ramp-up.

=FY28 Revenue Potential: Rs. 2,600–2,700 crore post-expansion.

=EBITDA Margins:
Consolidated margins expected to remain at improved levels (14–15%)

=====================

MOATS

1…Strategically realigning product portfolio towards high-margin, value-added products

2…High entry barrier in rPET: “Very highly technical product…not everyone will be able to manufacture very high quality rPET production.”

@Pragnesh How you are calculating your portfolio XIRR?

You can use this link for xirr

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@Pragnesh To calculate XIRR, we need to enter all the stocks and their respective multiple cashflows, correct? Thanks for your update :slightly_smiling_face:

1 Like