Positive phase of Markets: New strategies required?

Let us focus the energy of the forum on the subject of the actual thread.We already have our News TV Channels to discuss and debatelot of infotainment, as it has beendebated above. It is a very good thread that has been started by Donald. Let us not deviate from it.

Without naming anybody I would request/advice folks:

  1. To not to try and force their opinion on others (we are here to share our views and take our own decisions, rather then forcingothers to acceptindividual opinions).
  2. Tobe humble enough torespect diverse view points that are generated here (although personally I feel thatfew things mentioned above don’t add any value to the objective of this forum or thread).
  3. Points that have been made once need not be repeated again and again,if somebody has a difference of opinion.

Let us not dilute the quality of the discussions please and add to this thread constructively.

Looking forward to some focussed discussion on this thread.

Cheers!!!

Hi, One thing I observed, some Low PE stocks in Consumer space are getting traction now.

like - Wimplast, Nilkamal, Finolex, etc.

May be we can look at this sector.

Nilkamal seems to be long term story considering high spend on interiors going forward.

Disl- have a tracking position.

)- Sridhar

The way I see it even the perception of a better government can make the cash rich industrial houses to start investing money and kick start the investment cycle.

eg. RIL which was dormant for a long period of time is now in the finalisation stages for their BKC project. Initial estimates put the total project at roughly 1.8 mil sq ft.
This has a knock on effect on a number of vendors and sub vendors.

The same cycle which brings about a downtrend i.e Lack of investments - No orders for EPC Contractors - No orders for capital Goods manufacturers - Job losses - No hikes - Reduced consumption due to low spending power across all industries will start reversing.

The Consumption theme though is at high valuations . What will cause real wealth creation is identifying those sectors which will get affected by this change in scenario . I would broadly like to specify my guidelines in identifying these sectors

  1. No overcapacity in industry to absorb demand without increase in prices ( eg Cement)
  2. A minor change in factors like Interest rates, Currency appreciation have a significant change in Company performance.
  3. Steady businesses that are primarily dependent on a change in internal conditions (We can maybe eliminate IT and other export oriented businesses)

1 and 3 may help us eliminate the sectors that may not change much in the short term (1-3 yrs) with a change in government performance.
Pt 2 in my opinion would apply to those industries currently with low margins such that even a small change in factors mentioned above will magnify the performance of the balance sheet.
Once we broadly identify the sectors we can then look into individual companies to find those which are in a position to take the best advantage of the situation.

)- Sridhar

Shridhar,

Plastic industry looks promising riding on consumption story. We have seen outperformance in their earning recently.

However we have to work hard to find out niche / moat players. We need some thought process if not here then in other separate thread like Plastic / Piping / Furniture for questions like
growth potential, raw material impact, shift from other industry to plastic industry, environmental issues,.

Kunal

I think we are in a phase of markets where all laggards will tend to run hard but only up to a point.

this party can continue till some more time but ultimately over the longer run it will all depend on how economy revives.

About What Modi can do, I think we already are at the fag end of an economic downcycle and I feel Modi might be lucky to be taking over at such a juncture. Cycles do tend to turn at some time intervals and if it does turn in next year or two all credit will go to him whether he does the right things or not. :slight_smile:

The one good thing Modi govt brings to the table is the improved sentiments among Indian businessmen who were disillusioned by earlier govt and hence this might ignite a capex cycle upswing.

One strategy that I have implemented last month is given below and which I have strong conviction upon. The strategy seems to be working well till now (albeit everythingone buys goes up :wink: ), but as I said I have strong conviction about it.

If one believes that this is going to be a secular long term bull run then Capital Mkt intermediaries should definitely benefit from this.

I have created a basket of Motilal Oswal, IIFL and Edelweiss in my portfolio, based on simple reasons which lead me to believe that these companies should do well.

  1. Avg. Cash Mkt. volumes have risen from 9k Crs. in Oct 2013 to 24k Crs. in May 2014. And which I believe would rise further as well.
  2. Net Folio additions are at its highest after April 2008.
  3. AUMs of AMCs are at record highs at 10 lac odd Crs.
  4. Retail investors would come back to markets.
  5. These intermediaries have Insurance JVs which will benefit from relaxation ofFDInormsin Insurance sector.
  6. Capital Market reforms being introduced.

Such factors mentioned above lead me to believe that these companies as a cluster should do well in next 3-4 years and these are also trading much lower then their all time highs.

Discl: Invested instocks mentioned above.

Read an article, which I thought fits the bill with respect to trying to understand the importance of this thread (i.e. new strategies are required in new phases of markets).

The essence of the article is that Value is created in Equity Markets over certain phases in which there are certain sectors/clusters which take the lead.

Summarizing the same here. Pardon me for the length of the summary (summaries are supposed to be brief :wink: ), but I feel this article gives a good perspective about the thought process required in this thread.

âLong-term Wealth Creation calls for selecting the right sectors to remain invested in for the right duration of time, even as the fundamental tenets of diversification and long term holding remain inviolate.

Value Creationâ is a fundamental feature of equity investing and tends to naturally accrue over the long term. Although it can happen by just remaining patiently invested in good, strong businesses, it seldom bears fruit if it is not supported by proactive government policy and a favorable business environment.

It is clear that almost all value creation in the Indian markets has been has been the result of a mix of the above. But the fact that, the S&P BSE Sensex has deliveredreturns of only 13.7 per cent CAGR from Jan 1990 till date and given the fact that the nationâs Nominal GDP growth rate too has been around the same level, the outperformance of Equities as an Asset Class doesnât appear to be of any significance. But this could be grossly misleading. Hereâs why …

The components of these Indices are a constantly changing set. Couple this with the fact that during the last 23 years, various sectors have outperformed at various phases of time and one realizes that if an investor had understood even roughly, the components that were doing well and stayed invested in them, outperformance was eminently possible.

**VC Phase I: The Seeds of Value Creation: 1991-96: **Economic reforms of 1991-92

During 1990-92, the companies that delivered the maximum returns were from the core sector, such as cement, steel, automobiles, etc. The removal of the License Raj resulted in increased participation of the private sector in the economy, considerably increasing Indiaâs GDP growth rate considerably from around 1 per cent in 1991 to 7.6 per cent in 1995.

This period saw a surge in the FMCG and MNC Pharmaceuticals sectors as there was considerable lack of domestic capacities. Consequently, during 1994-96, FMCG stocks such as Colgate, HLL and Reckitt and Coleman saw rapid growth.

But the best example of value creation in the Indian markets was yet to come, (i.e. Banking Licenses).

VC Phase II: The Indian IT Juggernaut: From 1998 onwards:

The biggest example of value creation in India has been the IT Sector. Indiaâs IT success story came to the limelight during 1998-2001 global IT boom. While the Dot.com collapse led to the demise of a few IT companies such as Silverline Technologies, the likes of Infosys and TCS remain among the highest value creators among Indian stocks.

VC Phase III: Reforms Ver2.0, unleash value in Banks and PSUs: 2002-04:

The year 2002-03 saw banking stocks emerge as huge value creators. The second round of disinvestment of PSUs between 2001-03 led to huge value unlocking in PSU stocks such as CMC, GAIL, Dredging Corp., ONGC, HPCL, BPCL. In 2004, the RBI issued a second round of banking licenses to two more Private Sector Banks â Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.

VC Phase IV: Bounty for Indian Pharma as US Patents fall off the cliff:

At around 2004, the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry was waiting in the wings to take benefit of a historic opportunity in the US Pharmaceuticals market, the âPatent Cliff â.

VC Phase V: The Infrastructure Boom of 2002-07:

The 2002-07 period saw the government push the Public Private Partnership (PPP) format to provide a thrust to the Infrastructure and Power sectors. Almost 15000 km of roads were added to the national network by the NHAI till 2009.

In the power generation space too Indiaadded 80GW of capacity between 2001-02 and 2011-12. Several power generation companies have created tremendous value for investors in this space as it readies for a further 80GW of capacity addition in the next 5 years. Increasing capex led to strong credit off take from banks. Between 2002-07, the Banking Sector shot up 10 times and during the same period Infrastructure companies delivered more than 20 times returns.

VC Phase VI: Back to the Basics : 2008-13 :

Global recession, lack of policy action, severe slowdown in the infrastructure and related segments in the last five years. But despite difficulties in the global and domestic scenarios in the last few years, certain non-cyclical sectors and stocks have managed to outperform the markets. Despite the slump in the Commercial Vehicles (CV) segment, companies such as Tata Motors and M&M have managed to deliver value due to their geographic and segmental diversification.

The pharma sector too continued to deliver significant value to the investor, especially companies such as Sun Pharma, Lupin and DRL. But with the General Elections around the corner, hopes of a stable, reformist government run deep, leading to a revival in the Infrastructure and PSU segments.

The Takeaways? Long-term value creation through proactive sector rotation:____

Due to the dynamic nature of the equities as an asset class, one cannot use a passive investing method to significantly outperform the broad markets. Long-term Wealth Creation calls for selecting the right sectors to remain invested in for the right duration of time, even as the fundamental tenets of diversification and long term holding remain inviolate."

On the midcap IT have a look into KPIT Technologies and Persistent Systems… Both these have recently been purchased from Open Market by Apax Partners at 980/- and 170/- respectively. I had a first look at all readily available data … No red flags which are significant apart from standard ones applicable across this sector like dollar hardening (unlikely), competition and attrition (well hedged) etc.

Would appreciate more feedback on these two companies … I have small position in Persistent since 2010…