Read an article, which I thought fits the bill with respect to trying to understand the importance of this thread (i.e. new strategies are required in new phases of markets).
The essence of the article is that Value is created in Equity Markets over certain phases in which there are certain sectors/clusters which take the lead.
Summarizing the same here. Pardon me for the length of the summary (summaries are supposed to be brief ), but I feel this article gives a good perspective about the thought process required in this thread.
âLong-term Wealth Creation calls for selecting the right sectors to remain invested in for the right duration of time, even as the fundamental tenets of diversification and long term holding remain inviolate.
Value Creationâ is a fundamental feature of equity investing and tends to naturally accrue over the long term. Although it can happen by just remaining patiently invested in good, strong businesses, it seldom bears fruit if it is not supported by proactive government policy and a favorable business environment.
It is clear that almost all value creation in the Indian markets has been has been the result of a mix of the above. But the fact that, the S&P BSE Sensex has deliveredreturns of only 13.7 per cent CAGR from Jan 1990 till date and given the fact that the nationâs Nominal GDP growth rate too has been around the same level, the outperformance of Equities as an Asset Class doesnât appear to be of any significance. But this could be grossly misleading. Hereâs why …
The components of these Indices are a constantly changing set. Couple this with the fact that during the last 23 years, various sectors have outperformed at various phases of time and one realizes that if an investor had understood even roughly, the components that were doing well and stayed invested in them, outperformance was eminently possible.
**VC Phase I: The Seeds of Value Creation: 1991-96: **Economic reforms of 1991-92
During 1990-92, the companies that delivered the maximum returns were from the core sector, such as cement, steel, automobiles, etc. The removal of the License Raj resulted in increased participation of the private sector in the economy, considerably increasing Indiaâs GDP growth rate considerably from around 1 per cent in 1991 to 7.6 per cent in 1995.
This period saw a surge in the FMCG and MNC Pharmaceuticals sectors as there was considerable lack of domestic capacities. Consequently, during 1994-96, FMCG stocks such as Colgate, HLL and Reckitt and Coleman saw rapid growth.
But the best example of value creation in the Indian markets was yet to come, (i.e. Banking Licenses).
VC Phase II: The Indian IT Juggernaut: From 1998 onwards:
The biggest example of value creation in India has been the IT Sector. Indiaâs IT success story came to the limelight during 1998-2001 global IT boom. While the Dot.com collapse led to the demise of a few IT companies such as Silverline Technologies, the likes of Infosys and TCS remain among the highest value creators among Indian stocks.
VC Phase III: Reforms Ver2.0, unleash value in Banks and PSUs: 2002-04:
The year 2002-03 saw banking stocks emerge as huge value creators. The second round of disinvestment of PSUs between 2001-03 led to huge value unlocking in PSU stocks such as CMC, GAIL, Dredging Corp., ONGC, HPCL, BPCL. In 2004, the RBI issued a second round of banking licenses to two more Private Sector Banks â Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
VC Phase IV: Bounty for Indian Pharma as US Patents fall off the cliff:
At around 2004, the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry was waiting in the wings to take benefit of a historic opportunity in the US Pharmaceuticals market, the âPatent Cliff â.
VC Phase V: The Infrastructure Boom of 2002-07:
The 2002-07 period saw the government push the Public Private Partnership (PPP) format to provide a thrust to the Infrastructure and Power sectors. Almost 15000 km of roads were added to the national network by the NHAI till 2009.
In the power generation space too Indiaadded 80GW of capacity between 2001-02 and 2011-12. Several power generation companies have created tremendous value for investors in this space as it readies for a further 80GW of capacity addition in the next 5 years. Increasing capex led to strong credit off take from banks. Between 2002-07, the Banking Sector shot up 10 times and during the same period Infrastructure companies delivered more than 20 times returns.
VC Phase VI: Back to the Basics : 2008-13 :
Global recession, lack of policy action, severe slowdown in the infrastructure and related segments in the last five years. But despite difficulties in the global and domestic scenarios in the last few years, certain non-cyclical sectors and stocks have managed to outperform the markets. Despite the slump in the Commercial Vehicles (CV) segment, companies such as Tata Motors and M&M have managed to deliver value due to their geographic and segmental diversification.
The pharma sector too continued to deliver significant value to the investor, especially companies such as Sun Pharma, Lupin and DRL. But with the General Elections around the corner, hopes of a stable, reformist government run deep, leading to a revival in the Infrastructure and PSU segments.
The Takeaways? Long-term value creation through proactive sector rotation:____
Due to the dynamic nature of the equities as an asset class, one cannot use a passive investing method to significantly outperform the broad markets. Long-term Wealth Creation calls for selecting the right sectors to remain invested in for the right duration of time, even as the fundamental tenets of diversification and long term holding remain inviolate."