POKARNA LTD ( Stock opportunities )

Does this mean the stock can get re-rated given that the CVD is rather low? It has been on upper circuit Jun 19 and June 22.

Pls go through the below final verdict but a non-conclusive verdict which will attract constant attention. Currency undervaluation will also be factored in future, need to understand how this will be calculated and impact duties for India prodcts…

Minneapolis, MN, June 22, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – The U.S. International Trade Commission (“ITC”) voted unanimously (5-0) that the domestic U.S. industry was injured because of unfairly traded imports of quartz surface products from India and Turkey in response to petitions filed by leading domestic producer Cambria. U.S. Customs and Border Patrol will continue collecting duties on all quartz surface products from India and Turkey, and all importers of these products will be under the discipline of antidumping and countervailing duty orders.

The duty rates that the U.S. Department of Commerce (“Commerce”) determined in its investigation will be under regular review and constant scrutiny whereby the duty rates are adjusted to reflect the dumping practices and subsidies of the foreign producers. In a recent move to strengthen U.S. trade remedy laws, Commerce has announced a new rule that will treat a foreign country’s currency undervaluation as a countervailable subsidy. This new rule—which was not in effect during the investigations—will apply to administrative reviews of these orders and could result in much higher duty liabilities. These adjustments will be made retroactive to account for any increases in the foreign producers’ level of subsidization and dumping. The review process resulting from this ruling of unfair trade imports from India and Turkey will ensure that imports under the discipline of antidumping and countervailing duty orders are not being sold at unfair prices and reflect market-based economics, thus preventing foreign producers and exporters from receiving an unfair advantage from barriers to trade and subsidies in their home markets.

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Expert will know better, but Turkish and Chinese currency is far more manipulated than Indian. This ruling might be good for India in this context.
Experts ???

@Pratik_Patel9 any idea how the US demand of Quartz has shaped up in last 1-2 months?

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After this clarity on ITC ruling, do we see Pokarna reaching pre-covid valuation or is it gonna be stuck at this level for next couple of qtrs?

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Will depend on results. If the expanded capacity doesn’t get utilised then there is debt overhang to take care of.

This report mentions that classification of products is under the HTS code 6810.99.0010

We can search for imports into USA under this subheading on following website

https://dataweb.usitc.gov/

This is my saved query for quartz slabs used as countertops. It shows imports in USA from India for the subheading mentioned above.

https://dataweb.usitc.gov/trade/data/95db353f-0da9-4d40-b431-cfd9f830f610

It brings following result.

If we add up the numbers for two quarters and compare them, then volume for this quarter is about 13% less than previous quarter. Please note that this for entire India and not just Pokarna.

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This is the query for other codes mentioned in report. However, they might not be an accurate representation.

https://dataweb.usitc.gov/trade/data/720b9c50-4d9f-4753-a579-4318b5760bd4

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Hello Pratik,

The number is too less, if you do previous year’s calculations, the number would look off. I usually look stoneupdate website as an indicator of the trend.

Disc. Invested

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I believe the final ruling which reduced duties on pokarna came in the month of May 2020. So we have to account for that period as special case when duties were high. After may, covid has struck. But its to be observed that June months numbers are very less compared to may.

Disc
Invested

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Hello Pratik,

Your query were bang on! The numbers have shrunk drastically. Interesting trend is that Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam has taken up the entire market share lost by India. We will have to see what went wrong here. Pokarna’s management don’t even reply to investor queries.

Regards
Kanv

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I don’t see this as a negative development because lock down was in place during this time.

@kanvgarg123 Which codes did you compare with Malaysia, Vietnam and South Korea? Can you share your findings here?

Thanks

Disc.
Invested and highest holding in PF

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The market is so strong that builders are having to raise prices to slow down the pace of sales and ensure they won’t blow through inventory, Palacios said. About 70% of builders surveyed by John Burns Real Estate last month said they increased prices, compared with just 27% in the previous July.

Huge positive for pokarna?
https://tco/dcGMNLTt4E?amp=1&s=08

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The link above did not work for me, hence reposting below:

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why pokarna ltd not declared its june quarter result yet? any idea?

Considering the HSIN code for Pokarna products to be 68101990, its showing smart increases in exports. I looked up in screener and hence won’t share that data. Granite export is also showing very smart increases. If situation remains the same, the sector seems set to cross all time high in exports.
Disclaimer: Invested, newbie and subject area is not my competancy

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Nothing much here but realizations trend is always positive. (data only till June)

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro-individual?type=exports&hscode_commodity=5393&startDate=2017-09-01&endDate=2020-09-01&currency=inr&consolidation=month

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It’s missing the July data which is highest in last 12 months.

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Announcement will be done this Saturday:

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