Point & Figure Charting

pankaj · January 30, 2014, 4:09am

Tony,

One more thing related to learning … Since Hawkins is low volume stock so how is TA reliable in such scenarios.

onlycastel · January 30, 2014, 3:48pm

Pankaj,

If you are a trader then, Technical analysis becomes more relevant and effective when there are volumes in a stock. Or else from my experience, it has given me good entry and exit points.

HAWKINS (1995)

On the Point and Figure charts, the stock is on a BUY signal but in the O column indicating more sellers. It earlier had support at 2000 which it broke and now trading lower. Its next support is at 1650. On the upside resistance is at 2350.

On the candle sticks, the RSI (26) and CCI (-325) are both in the oversold zone but moving up. A pull back can be expected. It has become weak and trading below its 200 day EMA. It has resistance at 2080-2094. The latter will be very strong. Then at 2190 and 2218.

Tony

Vivek_6954 · January 30, 2014, 4:30pm

Good prediction on Muthoot n Mannapuram Tony. Where are they headed now?

Also how is Natco Pharma looking?

prasadmaddali20 · January 31, 2014, 1:03am

Hi Tony,

When you get some time can you please share your best technical levels and views on the below to accumulate ? suggest which are best to accumulate for long-term .

TATA Elixi,Selan exploration,Mirza inetrnational,Liberty shoes,JK Tyre,INOX leisure

onlycastel · January 31, 2014, 5:30am

Vivek,

It would be nice if you share how my analysis benefited you in Muthoot and Mannapuram. This will inspire other investors too. Surely will give further analysis as soon as you reply.

NATCO PHARMA (731)

The stock on the Point and Figure chart is on a SELL signal and in O column. It made a double bottom at 760 and broke down. It has support at 730-660-640. Resistance is at 760-840.

It is an excellent strong stock making consistent Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms and trading above its Bullish Support Line since 2011. Such stocks are always a BUY on dips.

On the candle sticks, the RSI is at 30 and CCI -331. Both are in oversold territory. The CCI still continues to fall. Let the CCI touch -100 and that is the time to BUY once again. It has support at 645 which is the 200 day moving average. It will meet resistance at 765-771-782.

Tony

Vivek_6954 · January 31, 2014, 11:03am

Tony,

You correctly predicted on Manapuram N Muthoot to be in overbought category.

Lot of people waited & as predicted the price came down for both cos.

HG_6470 · January 31, 2014, 1:20pm

Hi Tony,

Just wanted to let you now that I have been applying your teachings and have benefited from them. Recently bought Symphony as a short term pick and added to Shilpa based on technicals. Keep up the good work!

raviteja02 · January 31, 2014, 3:30pm

Dear Tony

1 question to you, why did you choose Point & Figure as your technical analysis basis? I mean, why not any other methods. Just want to understand from a experienced person like you, so I can accordingly weigh my analysis. Thank you.

onlycastel · February 1, 2014, 4:21am

Vivek,

I am happy that you shared your views.

MUTHOOT (127.70)

The stock made a double bottom at 122 earlier. It is in the O column though on a BUY signal. Support is at 122 and 114. Below 114 it will be weak. Resistance is at 136 and 150.

On the candle sticks, the stock has support at 124-123 and 118. The support at 123 is strong. Any breach below this will make the stock weak. The RSI is 38 and begun to show signs of moving up. However, the CCI at -20 is still flat. Wait for clarity to emerge on the CCI and then take your position.

Tony

onlycastel · February 1, 2014, 4:25am

MANAPPURAM (19.75)

The stock is in the O column and on a BUY signal. Support is at 18-17-16.50-13.80. Resistance is at 22.

On the candle sticks, the stock has support at 19.50-17.85. Strong support exists at 18.40. Watch for this level. If the stock breaks 18.40, then you can expect more downside in the stock. RSI is at 44 showing some change, but CCI at 4 is still trending lower. Some more correction can be expected. Watch the CCI carefully.

Tony

onlycastel · February 1, 2014, 4:40am

Sandeep,

Thank you for being so generous in giving me more time. I try to reply as fast as I can, but sometimes things do get delayed especially when I am travelling and out of town.

From the fundamental perspective, I find Tata Elixi and Selan Exploration good from at least a 2 years holding period. The other stocks I do not have much idea. Will give my Technical Analysis.

SELAN EXPLORATION: (386)

This stock has been making Higher Tops and Bottoms since May 2013. Made a double top at 330 and then gave a break out to touch 390, a new high. It has support at 330-290 and 265. Watch for 290 where it made a double top earlier and will make a double bottom if the price falls to this level. This will be a very strong support. Surely you can start buying at this level.

On the candle sticks, the stock has supports at 364-337-323 and 293. The last one is very strong as this is the 200 day EMA.

The RSI 83 and CCI 149 are both in the overbought territory and still moving up. Wait for a pull back to enter the stock.

Tony

onlycastel · February 1, 2014, 4:50am

TATA ELXSI (415)

The stock is in X column though on a SELL signal. It made a Triple Top at 420 earlier. This will act as a very strong resistance. If the stock breaks this level, a new high is in the air and it will be in a new territory. It has support at 350-340 and 310. Since September 2013, this stock has been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms which is a good sign.

On the candle sticks it has support at 400-380-350 and 260 levels. The RSI at 57 and CCI at 140 are still trending up. Some more upside can be expected. But my personal feeling is that it will meet strong resistance at 420. Watch for these levels.

Tony

ashwin_patel · February 1, 2014, 12:05pm

Dear Tony

Can u give me some levels to buy Radico Khaitan, Alembic Pharma and Ipca lab

Regards

onlycastel · February 1, 2014, 2:41pm

Ravi,

All of us are unique in our own ways. Even the 5 fingers are not the same. As the saying goes " One man’s food is another man’s poison".

There are so many out here who do great analysis. Some on fundamentals, others on technicals. Each one is good in their own way.

Personally I never understood much of technicals. My understanding was hazy. One day I came across an article in Business Line on Point and Figure. Read it and forgot it. Curiosity got the better of me. Went on a wild search on Google and got links to the book and Chartink.

It was then that I learned that Point and Figure was the base from which technical analysis evolved. Today with computers and technology, there are so many ready to use softwares available. However, like all good things people have forgotten the ABC of this great art.

I liked what I read and worked hard at it for nearly 6 hours a day. Applied its principles and saw for myself that it really works if one is disciplined. With encouragement and higher convictions started writing here. Added my own learning of CCI, RSI and moving averages, after which my returns grew phenomenally.

The support and response I received here egged me on to work even harder so that I could help the valuepickr community. Even to this day I spend a minimum 2 hours studying charts.

My philosophy of teaching is " Make it simple". If the student does not understand, then the teacher has failed.

I fervently hope I have passed this test. Readers please let me know your views. Let me know if my analysis has been simple to understand and easily applicable?Has it benefited you or not?

Waiting for your replies so that I can improve even further.

Tony

raviteja02 · February 1, 2014, 4:35pm

Thanks Tony for you reply. It has endorsed my beliefs further. I have started showing interest in Point and Figure charts only because of you and today after reading books and your posts, I have found how effective it is. Hopefully, I will be able to benefit from it in future once I complete my earnings and implement in real world.

You have been very helpful in this regard and thank you for that.

vishonlyvish · February 1, 2014, 5:16pm

Hi Tony,

Thanks for theimmensehelp on valuepickr tounderstandthe technical analysis skills. Yourguidanceon each query is really good.

I have read somewhere that exponential moving averages as compare to Simple moving averages may give false signal sometime, it this true in yourexperience?While measuring RSI, What should one consider Simple MA or Exponential MA?

Irshad · February 1, 2014, 6:06pm

Hi Tony

What is your take on technicals of Atul Auto and Muthoot Capital.

Thanks in advance.

Irshad · February 1, 2014, 6:07pm

Hi Tony

What is your take on technicals of Atul Auto and Muthoot Capital.

Thanks in advance.

kpai · February 2, 2014, 4:29am

Hello Tony

Any thoughts on JB chemicals ,looking at RSI and CCI numbers is this the right time to enter the stock.

Thanks again

onlycastel · February 2, 2014, 4:42am

[quote="onlycastel, post:676, topic:996262942"] I T HIGH | 78 Above is the Bullish Percent showing sector wise details for the month of December 2013. Any reading above 70 is overbought and time to get vigilant, while anything below 30 is oversold and time to make a list of Buys. [/quote]

Hello Folks,

I am getting so many requests for analyzing individual stocks. Please remember that before focusing on individual stocks, you should be aware of the over all markets. As on December, 2013, the BSE 100 Bullish Percent showed 79 stocks were on the BUY signal. That is 79%. As per Bullish Percent Chart anything above 70 shows that the Market is in OVERBOUGHT territory and it was essential to be cautious. Please see chart below.

As on January 2014 the BSE 100 Bullish Percent shows a High of 80 on 3rd January, 2014 and a Low of 40 as on 31st January, 2014. So what is the conclusion here?

As for me personally, I was a SELLER in the first week of January, 2014 because the market was in the Overbought territory. Now that the BSE 100 Bullish Percent has reached 40, I am readying my list to BUY stocks which are undervalued.

If each one of us can do this, I am sure that you can be a Successful Investor. Learn to go against the crowd and be a Contrarian. BUY with conviction when pessimism is the most and everyone is predicting a Dooms day. SELL when Confidence is at the highest and everyone is BUYING as if there is no tomorrow.

Tony

Col 1	Col 2	Col 3	Col 4	Col 5	Col 6	Col 7	Col 8	Col 9	Col 10
SECTOR	BSE 100	AUTO	BANK	CON. DUR	CAP GDS	FMCG	PHARMA	METAL
79	91	92	73	90	50	59	90	89	LOW	73	82	69	64	75	40	47	80