Point & Figure Charting

Stock Opportunities Techno-Funda Picks
501

Hi Tony, just started reading this thread and just wanted to thank you for the great efforts you have taken to educate novices like me.

I also want to try and implement the learning’s and decided to give a look at the PnF chart of one of the discussed stocks here on Valuepickr: Muthoot Capital Services, so correct me if I am wrong, Muthoot has given a BUY signal at 80, indicating change in the trend after it has given a SELL signal on 124 in Jan’13. And the stock had made another double top and gave another BUY signal at 84, making higher tops.

Does this means, there is a change in trend.

I have just started reading on your lessons, so still have to pick complex stuff I guess.

502

Hello!

A small correction. Point and Figure charting does not speak about CCI, RSI and Momentum. I use it in conjunction with Point and Figure as it has benefited me tremendously. If you wish to know more about it, I will be pleased to guide you.

As for BUY and SELL levels, one has to decide for oneself.The trend is currently up. Remember Trend is your Best Friend. This is the best time to clean your portfolio too.

Now with the Markets at new highs, one has to be wary and watchful for any signs of weakness. Personally I am only a Seller at the moment. Will wait for correction to set in to begin to BUY.

BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDY AND BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL

**
**

Tony

503

Hello Ramesh,

Thank you for your wishes and please do convey my wishes to your family too.

ACRYSIL:

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/524091.html

The stock is in O column and on a BUY signal. Correction has set in the stock. If it falls below 126, it will give a sell signal. It has made a double bottom at 129. The good thing to note is that this stock has been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms since July 2013. Wait for the correction to complete. Next support is at 124-116-114-108.

http://chartink.com/stocks/524091.html

The stock is showing bearish signs. The RSI is at 55, CCI at -7.8 and Momentum -6 all indicating short term negative trend in the stock. Good levels to look at are 119, 103. If it falls below 103 then one can expect a change in trend and a huge fall as this is the 200 day EMA.

Tony

504

SHILPA MEDICARE:

http://chartink.com/stocks/shilpamed.html

There is some profit booking happening in the stock. The RSI is still in over bought territory but has begun to fall. So is the CCI and Momentum showing signs of falling. Good levels to watch now are 193 its 25 day EMA, 184-50 day EMA and 179 its 200 day EMA. Any fall below 179 will trigger a huge fall.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/SHILPAMED.html

On the PnF charts the stock is in X column and on a BUY signal. Faces next resistance at 220. If it breaks this, the stock will give a new high. It has support at 215 where it had earlier made 5 attempts and on the 6th attempt it broke to 220. Support now exists at 175. Be patient and BUY on dips.

Tony

505

Dear Kushal,

I must commend you for trying to understand Point and Figure charting. The BUY signal at 82 in August 2013 after a double top is correct. The SELL signal at 210 in January 2013 happened after making a double bottom at 215. Could not understand how you arrived at 124???. Nor could locate 84 as a BUY signal.

It is important to mention the month and the year when you refer to certain levels. Have you read the book Point and Figure charting by Tom Dorsey??. If not, give me your mail id and I will send you a copy. If you need any help, I will be pleased to assist you.

If you want me to analyse Muthoot for you let me know. I will do it for you over here.

Tony

506

Hi Tony,

Just read the thread over the night :slight_smile:

Have already downloaded the book from the gmail id and password provided on the thread.

SELL signal at 124 in Jan’13, after that the stock made continuous lower double bottoms, and the trend continued till Oct’13 when it gave a buy signal at 80, and later in the same month i.e. Oct’13 it made another higher top at 84.

Also, looks like 10 day EMA broke the 21 day EMA from below.

Please clarify, if I have still got it wrong.

507

Would also be great if you can share the latest bullish percent and also give your thoughts on it.

Thanks in advance.

508

Kushal,

There is some confusion in your reading. The no. 1 represents January. The highest price the stock reached in January 2013 is 245 and the lowest is 200. The stock gave a SELL signal at 210 and from then on made Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms till it touched 74 in August 2013. The short term trend changed in August till September and again the stock fell. For the long term trend to change the stock has to trade above the Bearish Resistance Line (red line).

To read the short term trend I use the 5 day EMA and 25 day EMA. On 23rd October, the 5 day EMA cut the 25 day EMA from below. The stock moved up but not very much.

I will put up the Bullish Percent readings shortly.

Tony

509

BULLISH PERCENT CHART:

I have attached the Bullish Percent Chart which tell a lot. A picture speaks a thousand words. Please read it carefully. There is lots to learn.

As a Diwali gift I will be giving a write up on importance of Sector and the Market. This will open your horizons as to what is happening in the market as well as how important it is to be in the correct sector. Will put up the sector readings later.

Do give me your feed back.

Tony

BULL-charts.xlsx (28.7 KB)

510

In my previous post I had attached the Bullish Percent Chart. The charts were for the Market (BSE Sensex 100) and also certain sectors like FMCG, Healthcare, Bankex etc.

So what is the function of a Sector or Market Bullish Percent? It measures the percentage of stocks in a particular sector which are on a BUY SIGNAL. This is plotted on a grid from 0 percent to 100 percent.

When the Sector Bullish Percent Chart is in the X column it means that there are more BUYERS of the stocks in the sector than SELLERS. When the Sector Bullish Percent Chart is in the O column, it means that there are more SELLERS of the stocks in the Sector than BUYERS.

One more thing of importance here is the interpretation of the chart. Whenever the X column reaches the zone of 70 percent and above it is a HIGH RISK zone and one has to become alert. This is because all the people who wanted to be invested in that sector are already in and thus the demand for the sector would not rise.

Conversely when the O column reaches the zone of 30 percent and below it is a low risk zone and one has to get ready and alert once again. This is because all the people who wanted to dis-invest in that sector are already out and thus the selling pressure will abate.

To be a successful investor, it is very important to understand where the market is heading and analyse the sector too.

Let me explain the importance of SECTOR with an example. Let us take the BANKEX.

On 2nd July 2013, only 29 percent of the stock in this sector were on a BUY SIGNAL. This fell to 0 percent on 16th August, 2013 and continued to do so till 30th August, 2013. One very well remembers, that in September we had our new RBI Governor Dr. Raghuram Rajan. By 20th September 2013, the sector bullish percent touched 100 percent, meaning all the stocks in the Bankex turned to a BUY SIGNAL. Now, if anyone who had bought stocks of banks in the period 16th August to 30 August 2013 would have got them for very cheap valuations.The sector was completely oversold. In one month it gave investors a huge return.

Take the specific case of YES BANK. In the month of August it had touched Rs.220/-.In a matter of a month, it rallied to Rs. 390/- in the month of September. A return of Rs.170/- on an investment of Rs.220/-. Each one of you can do your own analysis and you will come the conclusion that it is very important to not only study the Market as a whole but also the SECTOR you wish to invest in.

TONY

511

Hi Tony,

That’s wonderfully summed up on the importance of sector selection. Can i request you to provide tech. analysis and better levels to accumulate the below stocks… Would be glad if you confirm if these are technically in long-term bull phase and their probable targets as well

Eclerx,Ajanta and Emami.

512

Sandeep,

ECLERX,

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/ECLERX.html

The stock is on a BUY signal but in the O column. It has support at 980 and then 900. On the upside the stock has resistance at 1060 the earlier double top. As the stock is trading above its Bullish Support Line the trend is UP.

http://chartink.com/stocks/eclerx.html

On the candle sticks, the stock is trading above the 5 day and 25 day EMA indicating that the short term momentum is UP. It will have support at 1015 the 5 day EMA and 966 the 25 day EMA.

Such stocks are BUY on dips. You may buy at support levels indicated above.

TONY

513

AJANTA:

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/AJANTPHARM.html

The stock is in X column and on a BUY signal. Support comes in at 780. A very strong stock trading above the BULLISH SUPPORT LINE since January 2013. If the stock falls below 860 it will start trading in the O column and one can expect some profit taking at this point.

http://chartink.com/stocks/ajantpharm.html

The stock is placed exactly at the 5 day EMA of 894. If it falls below this then one can expect support at 772 its 25 day EMA. The CCI started falling as is at 133. Watch for levels of 100. If it falls below 100, the stock will correct. This will give a buying opportunity.

Such stocks are a BUY on dips.

Tony

514

EMAMI:

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/EMAMILTD.html

The stock gave a BUY signal at 500 and is currently at 503. It has resistance at 520-540-560. Support is at 500-490-460-450.

http://chartink.com/stocks/emamiltd.html

It is trading just above its 5 day EMA of 500. It has support in the short term at 485 its 25 day EMA. The RSI is in over bought range but CCI is below 100. Watch for CCI to touch 100 where the stock will give a good break out. You may buy at support levels indicated above.

Tony

515
MON AUTO
H : L		 BANK
H : L		 CON DU
H : L		 CAPGDS
H : L		 FMCG
H : L		 HEALTH
H : L		 METAL
H : L		 I.T
H : L
AUG 50 : 20 7 : 0 50 : 30 32 : 0 100 :30 53 : 35 82 : 0 -
SEP 90 : 30 100 : 0 70 : 40 64 : 36 70 : 40 76 : 53 90 : 70 -
OCT 91 : 73 92 : 69 64 : 45 80 : 40 80 : 70 88: 65 80 : 60 100 : 89

Above is an analysis of SECTOR BULLISH PERCENT. One can see the highs and lows month wise. The highest opportunities came in the Bankex, Consumer Durables, Metal Sectors. I. T sector has been tracked from October onward while dropping realty.

The low figures in August denote the fall in the markets. September shows the recovery.

TONY

516

What’s the take on Shilpa Medicare , Mayur Uni n Page Tony pl?

517

Vivek,

PAGE INDUSTRIES ( 4792)

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/PAGEIND.html

The stock is making a new high, presently in the X column and on a BUY signal. After making a double top at 4600 it gave a BUY signal at 4700 and touched 4900. It has support at 4600 and 3900. Since January 2013 the stock has been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms. A very good chart.The trend is also up as the stock is trading above the Bullish Support Line. Such stocks are a BUY on dips.

http://chartink.com/stocks/pageind.html

It is trading above its 5 day and 25 day EMA. It has support at 4554 and 4472. With RSI at 84 it is in the overbought region. CCI is a huge 895 rarely seen and Momentum at 333, the short term momentum is UP. Wait for a correction and buy on dips.

Tony

518

SHILPA MEDICARE:

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/SHILPAMED.html

The stock made a new high today with good volumes. It gave a break out after 215 which was acting as a strong resistance. Now 215 will act as a strong support. Thereafter it has support at 175.

http://chartink.com/stocks/shilpamed.html

The stock is trading above the 5 and 25 day EMA. It has support at 221 and 200. RSI is at 80 and in over bought zone. CCI is 145 and Momentum at 29 are all positives showing the short term momentum is UP.

When stocks make new highs, they enter a new territory and hence one cannot predict the upper targets. Watch keenly the CCI which will show change in momentum if it begins to fall towards 100.

Tony

519

MAYUR UNIQUOTERS:(310)

http://chartink.com/stocks/mayuruniq.html

After touching 310, the stock closed at 302. It is above the 5 and 25 day EMA. Short term momentum continues to be UP, RSI is at 76, CCI at 182 and Momentum at 39, all positive for the stock.

It has support at 298 and 265.

http://chartink.com/pointfigure/MAYURUNIQ.html

The stock has been making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms. A good sign. It made a double top at 270 and gave a BUY signal. It has support at 270-250-240 on the downside.

Tony

520

Hi Tony, Please take a look at Gruh chart. The 50DMA has cut 150DMA from below. Should something be expected here?