More curious on the feedback of Camikara - Indri alone story is factored in… need to see how well other products - Camikara (and new products under development - maybe Gin?) would do?
Camikara is natural with no artificial color or taste. It is well accepted in the marketplace. I believe, it is also selling well though have not sure if enough supply matched with demand. Someone on the field can provide more insights if they are seeing Camikara and how it is competing.
2 Likes
Indri was out of stock at the Dehradun airport…salesman told me its their best selling product along with Black label…He said older people (above 60 or so) pick BL as they are not so aware, but younger one and older ones who have heard of Indri usually pick Indri…
Also, Indri Trini is out of stock in the United Kingdom (check online, such as on Amazon UK, etc) for last 3 weeks at least…however, Indri Dru is still available on Amazon UK.
So, I think Indri story we all know…I feel it will be a million cases brand in ~8-9 yrs…generating a PAT >1000cr as I said here: 
But now its CAMIKARA which looks like the new kid on the block which might just be able to repeat Indri’s success…lets see…
6 Likes
After your updates, I thought of checking with the ones I spoke to earlier and they say the repeat rate has been pretty good (It is no longer a FOMO-based sale) and customer demand has witnessed growth throughout the festive season.
Good Signs and thank you for keeping us posted with updates from the other side of the world.
5 Likes
I live in a small tier-3 town in Haryana and happened to be in store when group of friends in early twenties walked into the store and bought Indri, probably celebrating something. And they were not likely to be from India but rather Bharat (you know what i mean), so reach of brand is deeper than we likely estimate it to be.
9 Likes
I spoke to the Dutyfree in a couple of places and the feedback I received is that the traction of Camikara isnt anywhere close to Indri. They think, the marketing of Camikara isnt sufficient and needs an impetus. May be PAIL needs to get some tasting sessions done and a few collaborations to introduce the brand organically to a large scale population
But Indri, on the other hand, the traction is amazing. If Camicara can replicate the success of Indri, share price would run wild
3 Likes
Hello Community, Piccadily is at 90 PE today. My QQ is can it become multi bagger from here as it seems expensive. If yes what will be factors which can make it 5X in future.
Median PE of United Spirits, Radico Khaitan and United Breweries over past few years have been 70, 78.2 and 120 respectively. I don’t expect Piccadily to trade at a lower multiple now that Indri story is well discovered. Good compounding with increase in sales and revenue growth is what you can expect from now onwards.
5 Likes
PE is the most misunderstood measure in markets. PE in itself doesn’t tell you cheapness about anything. It is future growth that matters.
USL, Titan, Unilever, Nestle etc. that quote at high multiples vs a company such as Piccadily, in my books, are not comparable. Indri is STARTING on its growth journey. Established brands like above are in a plateau, are being disrupted by all kinds of startups and foreign brands. There is no comparison. Based on potential future earnings, Piccadily is dirt cheap. As they say - aage ki socho.
10 Likes
So we know which are the world’s best selling whiskeys and how much do they sell? With that measure we can check for TAM etc
1 Like
Indri is still in growth phase. PE should reflect EPS growth rate.
Indri is the fastest growing single malt whiskey in the world. It crossed 1 lac cases of milestones within 2 years of launch.
It’s growing at 400% y/y, and we are yet to see the benifits of sale from CRPF canteens, Tesco stores etc.,
The growth rate is expected to moderate, due to higher base, going forward, but the share of Alco Bev segment with 70% margins will keep increasing in the company revenue/Op. Profit and increasing the EPS.
Based on the expansion plans (just the malt production), the management is expecting 10x growth for this segment (calculation below).
Current capacity 12kl per day or 4,380kl of malt spirit per year.
As per the plans announced, in phase 1, the company will increase the capacity to 30,000 liters per day by end Oct 2025. In phase 2, the company will increase the capacity to 60,000 liters per day by the end of FY26. Malt expansion capacity will go up by 5X in 2 years.
Additionally, the company is expanding its warehousing infrastructure to accommodate over 1,00,000 barrels (2x).
Growth based on capacity expansion plans:
Current capacity 12kl per day or 4,380kl of malt spirit per year.
The malt is matured for 5 to 7 years in the barrels. During the ageing process, the spirit evaporates at 10 to 12% per year (angel share). After the ageing, the company approximately produces 2,000kl of whiskey {4,380 (1-12%)^6 = 2,034kl}. Which is sufficient for 2.2 lakh cases (9l per case) per year, the company has just sold 1 lakh cases since launch, in two years, so there is much growth left with current capacity.
Based on current warehouse capacity, 500k barrels of 200l each, the storage should have 5lakh cases of whiskey (9l per case and c100l per barrel after evaporation), approximately 1 lakh cases a year. Double of current runrate. The capacity expansion of warehouse (2x) also supports higher growth expectations.
With so much capacity available, the expansion signals continued high growth expectations from management.
Ethanol production (planned capacity increase 5x by mid 2026), Scottish Distillary etc are further upsides for the story.
This is just my thesis and happy to hear counter arguments.
The company is up 100x in the last 5 years and I am hoping that the current rally is backed by fundamentals and not just a market pump.
I am late to the party (bought at 760 levels), and management’s recent preferential purchase at 770-780/sh provides a little comfort.
Risks:
Even though the company has the capacity, we don’t know when it was created and when the bottling can be started.
Company should have additional/new brands push all these additional volumes to the market as Indri is already 30% of IMFL category.
Management might be too optimistic about demand as Indri demand might just be a fad.
Disc: Invested and biased. Not a recommendation.
18 Likes
As per the last press release on expansion, they said early 2025 is the first phase completion. So, Oct 2025 is little too far next year.
3 Likes
Piccadily has the highest margins among it’s peers and as mentioned by others, Indri journey has just begun, the brand value would/should allow company to maintain it’s edge in margin.
2 Likes
Just researching the stock.
ANy reason why DII and FII holding is next to nil on screener?
FII mostly don’t hold stocks only listed on BSE due to liquidity issues. There was an update from company about 6 months back that there’ll be listing on NSE but there hasn’t been an update since then.
4 Likes
What about DIIs? You have conveniently ignored the question on DII holdings
They have bought some using warrants but those won’t be visible until the warrants are exercised .Also the issue of liquidity is same for anybody who wants to have large number of shares …be it DII,FII or big fish investors like Kedia or Kacholia .
But what’s this fascination with fii dii holding ? There were not any when the price was 40 , and there is almost none when it is 1000. In between company EPS has increased from 2:to 13rs, margin has expanded from 10 to 21% and sales has doubled …their miss and so is anybodies who could not gather up enough courage because there is no institutional holding.
Check HBL power as well …very little institutional holding …but so what ?
Maybe Sona blw or cms info systems would be more to the taste ?
16 Likes
Based on recent checks at stores across North India during my travel over the last one month, updating my previous expectation mentioned here
I now expect Indri sales to be 180k - 200k cases - recording a growth of between 80-100% YoY for FY25
I now expect Piccadily Agro FY25 PAT to be ~200cr - recording a growth of around ~80% YoY for FY25
Camikara is gaining traction. By FY25 end, I expect the entire distribution network to have been tapped. And from next financial year onwards, the company starts pushing hard the sales of Camikara - I expect Camikara sales to be breach the 100k cases per year sales mark in FY26. Expect a big sales/marketing drive from Holi till the end of summer positioning Camikara as the cocktail spirit.
Also, I think at least one new product will be introduced in FY26 - could be a vodka or a gin.
12 Likes
Sounds a little overtly ambitious to me given that Piccadily has only done 38crs of PAT in H1.
To achieve 200crs of PAT in FY25, Piccadily would need to roughly 2x EBITDA in H2 vs H2FY24.
Tall ask given that Q4FY24 especially was a bumper quarter.
Anyways, I’d be happy with a FY25 PAT that’s anywhere around 150-160 crs. Given a TTM PE of 50 and that’s cheap given how the brands are doing.
6 Likes
https://soic.in/blog-description/alcoholindustry
Such a fascinating read on liqour industry.
Not directly related to Piccadily
6 Likes