PI Industries - Superior Business Model

Q3FY12Results for PI Industries Announced – Major Details :

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Revenue - 190.57 cr. ( v/s our estimate of Rs. 223-245 cr.)

EBITDA - 30.7 cr. (v/s our estimate of Rs. 43-48 cr.)

PAT - Rs. 11.43 cr. (v/s our estimate of Rs. 23-26 cr.)

EPS - Rs. 4.55 (v/s our estimate of Rs. 9.2-10.4)

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Prima-facie Analysis of Q3FY12 Results :

Q3FY12 Results of PI Industries are way below our conservative estimates and the main culprit seems to have been Agri-Input segment. Asenvisaged post Rallis Analyst Meet Takeaways on 25th Jan. 2012, Agri-Input segment seems to have suffered heavily although the exact details wrt. its revenue and profitability are still awaited from the Press Release and Concall commentry. The more disappointing part of the results is the continued pressure on margins which is contrary to management’s own expectations as detailed by them in Q2FY12 concall commentry. EBITDA margins for the qrtr. at just 16.10 % while considering the fact that CSM segment enjoys high margins of 21 % + doesn’t augur too well for Agri-input segment visibility.

Since last many years,current qrtr.seems to be the first qrtr. wherein Pi Ind. has failed to outperform its major peer Rallis and we hope this is the one-off and company can get back on track in coming qrtrs.

Detailed Press Release is awaited at the time of writing this and management commentry in the concall will be crucial.

Will update of the details soon.

Rgds.

Press Release rgdg. Q3FY12 Results issued :

**

PIâs 9M FY2012 EBITDA grows strongly at 40%

EBITDA grows strongly at 40%

Agri-Input shows solid growth of 30% YoY

Custom Synthesis scales-up along expected lines, revenues up 65% YoY

New Delhi, February 12, 2012: PI Industries Limited (PI), a leading Indian Agri-Input and Custom

Synthesis company today announced its financial results for the third quarter ended December 31,

**PI Industries Limited (PI), a leading Indian Agri-Input and Custom

Synthesis company today announced its financial results for the third quarter ended December 31,

**

Financial Highlights for the nine-months ended 31st December, 2011

(Compared to 9M FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding business)

st December, 2011

(Compared to 9M FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding business)

Net Revenue

**

Net Revenue stood at Rs. 6418.2 million, up 26.8% (~41% YoY without Polymer Compounding

revenue); Agri-Input saw growth of 30% whereas Custom Synthesis grew by 65%. Growth in the

Agri-Input business is ahead of the sector growth rate while the Custom Synthesis business

continues to deliver strong revenue momentum.

**

EBITDA

**

EBITDA was at Rs. 1,106.4 million, up 40%. Margins saw 160 bps expansion to 17.2% given the

robust all-round performance.

**

Pre-tax Earnings

**

Profit Before Tax at Rs. 1,080.5 million with an increase of 81.3% and considering the effect of:

ï* Pre-tax gain of ~Rs. 303 million on sale of the Companyâs Polymer business to Rhodia SA in the

beginning of current fiscal.

Pre-tax gain of ~Rs. 303 million on sale of the Companyâs Polymer business to Rhodia SA in the

beginning of current fiscal.

ï* Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.7 million as compared to Exchange Fluctuation Gain of Rs.

47 million in the same period last year.

Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.7 million as compared to Exchange Fluctuation Gain of Rs.

47 million in the same period last year.

**

Post-tax Earnings

**

The Net Profit including exceptional gains was at Rs. 787.6 million, up 80.1%. The Basic EPS

increased to Rs. 31.65 per share against Rs. 19.6 per share last year.

**

Financial Highlights for the quarter ended 31st December, 2011

(Compared to Q3 FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding business)

st December, 2011

(Compared to Q3 FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding business)

Net Revenue

**

Net Revenue was stable at Rs. 1,902.1 million (~11% growth YoY without Polymer Compounding

revenue); Agri-Inputs showed 16% increase in Revenues to Rs. 1,022 million despite the inclement

conditions in the Rabi season where deficiency in the N-E monsoon affected the regular cropping

pattern. The contribution from Custom Synthesis was Rs. 880 million; 5% increase on higher base of

last year.

**

EBITDA

**

EBITDA was at Rs. 307.1 million and showed 18.3% growth with a margin improvement of 250 bps

to 16.2%.

**

Pre-tax Earnings

**

Profit Before Tax at Rs. 160 million considers the effect of:

ï* Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.6 million, which includes Unrealized Foreign Exchange

fluctuation loss of Rs. 58.5 million (net basis) arising out of the restatement of foreign currency

exposure on the reporting date. Against this, there was a Exchange Fluctuation Gain of Rs. 39

million in the same period last year.

Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.6 million, which includes Unrealized Foreign Exchange

fluctuation loss of Rs. 58.5 million (net basis) arising out of the restatement of foreign currency

exposure on the reporting date. Against this, there was a Exchange Fluctuation Gain of Rs. 39

million in the same period last year.

**

Post-tax Earnings

**

The Net Profit was at Rs. 114.4 million with a Basic EPS of Rs. 4.60 per share.

**

Commenting on the performance Mr. Mayank Singhal, Managing Director & CEO, PI Industries

Ltd., said;

**_

âWe have reported a revenue growth of ~11% during the quarter after excluding the contribution of

the Polymer Compounding business which we divested in the beginning of the year. Despite the

adverse impact of the erratic N-E monsoon on the domestic business, we have continued with a

good pace of growth. We are constantly identifying products, which can be placed in the niche

areas to fuel the future growth. We have a few exciting product launches ahead of us.

In Custom Synthesis we have shown strong growth in revenues on account of ramp up of existing

products. We are also commercializing new products in the next few quarters which will further

enhance our growth trajectory.â

We have reported a revenue growth of ~11% during the quarter after excluding the contribution of

the Polymer Compounding business which we divested in the beginning of the year. Despite the

adverse impact of the erratic N-E monsoon on the domestic business, we have continued with a

good pace of growth. We are constantly identifying products, which can be placed in the niche

areas to fuel the future growth. We have a few exciting product launches ahead of us.

In Custom Synthesis we have shown strong growth in revenues on account of ramp up of existing

products. We are also commercializing new products in the next few quarters which will further

enhance our growth trajectory.â

**

Outlook

**

ï* Agri-Input business in the long-term remains very strong, may see some moderation in the

immediate term:

Agri-Input business in the long-term remains very strong, may see some moderation in the

immediate term:

ï* The Rabi season is off to a subdued start given the erratic nature of the N-E

monsoon. However PI continues to show growth based on its strong line-up of

products

The Rabi season is off to a subdued start given the erratic nature of the N-E

monsoon. However PI continues to show growth based on its strong line-up of

products

ï* PIâs relationships with innovators and its strengths in product development,

registration and product trial remains key to sustained growth. Forthcoming Kharif

season to see introduction of some new products

PIâs relationships with innovators and its strengths in product development,

registration and product trial remains key to sustained growth. Forthcoming Kharif

season to see introduction of some new products

ï* Custom Synthesis to see healthy growth in revenue and margins based on:

Custom Synthesis to see healthy growth in revenue and margins based on:

ï* Robust order book position

Robust order book position

ï* Portfolio of early stage patented molecules which are expected

Portfolio of early stage patented molecules which are expected

ï* Progressive build-up in existing commercialized molecules

Progressive build-up in existing commercialized molecules

ï* Enhancement of manufacturing facilities

Enhancement of manufacturing facilities_

Analysis of Details available from Press Release :

If I sum-up in one sentence, “A disappointment on all counts”. This is because :

(1) Agri-Input segment has grown at just 16 % in Q3FY12… Although growth is slightly better than its peers but the margins are a real concern…

This is because if I assume a 21 % EBITDA margin for CSM business for Q3FY12 then the margins for Agri segment has been at just 11.9 % which is pathetically low for a specialised products company like PI… If such margins would have been with generic players like Dhanuka, then it would have been ok but for PI such margins are really really pathetic.

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(2) CSM business has lost momentum totally in Q3FY12… The segment has grown its revenues by just 5 % in Q3FY12 and management has attributed it to larger base of last year’s qrtr. but this is just saving of face as no way such revenue growth is acceptable… It was only in Q2FY12 concall commentry that management had guided for the robust growth for this segment in coming qrtrs. and this is a real unfortunate surprise.

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(3) Press Release is silent on actual order-book position for CSM segment which is a sign that there has not been any significant order book addition for Q3FY12 which is a warning signal as European factors seems to have started affecting this company too.

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(4) Concall commentry will be key monitorable but affect on revenues alongwith margins and that too for second consecutive qrtr. is not atall a good sign and the company seems to be loosing its way.

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(5) Management has forecasted subdued remaining Rabi season and pinned its hopes on ensuing Kharif…

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Conclusion :

Although management is good and capable, operational segment issues seems to be hurting heavily the company. Lets wait for the management commentry but for me the scale-up issues in CSM segment and silence on order-book position is alarming sign and I am continuing to reduce my exposure significantly in the counter.

Rather than saving of face, if management accepts the issues frankly and soon then it will be that much better for the sharehoders of the company.

will update of the details as and when they come.

feel free to get back to me in case of any query.

Rgds.

Maheshji & other friends

Your comments on yesterdays concall if attended by you.

Link to pdf of Q3FY12Concall Key Takeawaysof PI Industries & View post the same :

http://www.scribd.com/doc/81791682

Key Takeaways from Q3FY12 Concall of PI Industries Ltd. :

  1. Agri-Input segment grew by 30 % YoY in 9’Months’FY12 to stand at Rs. 397.2 cr… For Q3FY12, Agri-Input segment grew by 16 % YoY to stand at Rs. 102.2 cr.

  2. CSM segment grew by 65 % YoY in 9’Months’FY12 to stand at Rs. 242 cr… For Q3FY12, CSM segment grew by 5 % YoY to stand at Rs. 88 cr.

  3. Uneven rains in many parts of the country affected the revenues of Agri-Input segment in Q3FY12. Rabi season has started off on a very sluggish scale and sluggishness is likely to persist for Q4FY12 too.

  4. EBITDA for 9’Months’FY12 grew by 40 % YoY to stand at Rs. 110.6 cr… For Q3FY12, EBITDA grew by 18.3 % YoY to stand at Rs. 30.71 cr.

  5. Company’s flagship product, Nominee Gold, registered a growth of 45 % YoY on a 9’Monthly basis.

  6. Order-book of CSM segment at the end of 9’Months’FY12 stands at USD 340 mn.

  7. Company has taken additional debt in Q3FY12 in the form of ECB worth USD 20 mn for the upcoming CSM plant. The Debt position at the end of 9’Months’FY12 stands at Rs. 250 cr. up from Rs. 170 cr. at the end of H1’FY12. Company’s inventory position at the end of 9’Months’FY12 stands at Rs. 230 cr…

  8. The new CSM plant which was expected to be commissioned in Q1FY13 has got further delayed and is likely to get commissioned only in Q2FY13.

  9. Management has scaled down its revenue guidance for FY12 to 30-35 % YoY growth in both the operational segments from earlier projected 40 % growth.

  10. In CSM segment, company is expecting to commercialise one new molecule in Q4FY12 and expects good ramp-up in quarterly scale from Q4FY12 onwards.

Conclusion :

First and foremost the subdued results for Q3FY12 necessitate the need to revise our projection for FY12 which now stands at :

(a) Agri-Input segment revenues for FY12 likely to stand at Rs. 525 cr. v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 575 cr.

(b) CSM segment revenues forecast for FY12 remains unchanged at Rs. 350-360 cr.

© Consolidated EBITDA for FY12 is likely to stand at Rs. 155-160 cr. v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 170-178 cr.

(d) Consolidated PAT w/o exceptional items for FY12 is likely to stand at Rs. 80-85 w/o incorporating any significant forex loss v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 91-96 cr.

(e) EPS for FY12 is likely to stand at Rs. 32 - 34 v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 36.3 - 38.3.

So, now, revision in numbers are done; – next comes the key concerns for the company which have cropped up first time since 2009, the time from which company’s CSM business started scale-up and its Agri-Input segment registered tremendous growth each year YoY on the back of exceptional performance of Nominee Gold :

(a) The scale-up in CSM segment order book has peaked off since last two quarters and if such sluggish pace of addition continues for another two quarters the margin of safety reduces for the company.

(b) The revenue growth in Agri-Input segment as also the margins is so far driven mainly by Nominee Gold and just a slight sluggish performance of this product in Q2FY12 as also Q3FY12 seems to have a severe effect on margins of the segment.

© Company is expected to launch a blockbuster product similar to Nominee in Q1FY13 which will again call for significant investments on marketing side thereby affecting margins.

(d) Delay in commissioning of CSM plant ( first it was scheduled for Q3FY12 then postponed to Q1FY13 and now again postponed to Q2FY13 ) doesn’t augur well for the company as timely delivery is _**crucial for sensitive CSM contracts **_and any further delay could severely impact credibility of the company.

Having said all these does PI Industries merit a ‘Sell’ at current juncture. A clear NO mainly because of the business model company has as also the capable management team company posseses.

So, does it mean that PI Industries merits a ‘Buy’ at current juncture. Again a clear NO as this is the first time since 2009 ( the real year from which company’s journey towards growth started ) that company is facing many headwinds and it is extremely crucial to monitor each of the company’s developments very closely as it is only this stage from which many mid-cap companies falter to deliver. Next two quarters will be really crucial.

To conclude, PI Industries is at best a ‘Hold’ at current juncture as its historical trading band has been 15 times trailing earnings and 12 times forward earnings which gives us an actual price-band of Rs. 480â** 600** by taking FY12e numbers as trailing base and FY13e numbers as forward base. In absence of any significant corporate development, chances of any sort of rerating in historically commanded valuations are remote as company’s operational segments are facing many headwinds at present.

In case the monsoons don’t deliver in ensuing kharif season, it will severely impact PI Industries as major growth for Nominee Gold is dependent on kharif season. Without Nominee, PI can’t deliver on margins.

Similarly, the margin of safety in CSM segment has reduced considerably with its current order book being just 4.3 times FY12e CSM segment revenues down from 5.6 times then FY11 revenues at the end of FY11. Order-book is crucial for CSM segment as its a asset-heavy business and at any point of time order-book should not go below 3.5 times CSM segment expected revenues for company to remain in a comfortable position. As the scale of CSM segment is expected to increase from current Q4FY12 onwards it will call for a greater pace to addition in order-book and therefore next two quarters are going to be crucial for PI.

1 Like

I am really disappointed in the management. It seems to be either they are really stupid or they are liars!! If they cant figure out how their company is likely to do in the next 3 months, then there is something really wrong. Also, the approach of the management to highlight a somewhat better 9m result and complete ignore the 3m results speaks very poorly of their integrity. It reeks of manipulative intent. These are the types of companies which should be avoided even if they go up 100 times in price from here.

Under the thread " My top picks"I had mentioned that we need to pick stocks which have the least number of variables, external and internal, affecting them. This makes it easier to keep tabs on them. In case of PI, inspite of all the hard work put in, the number of variables are just too large for any investor to keep tabs on.

Hence, still believe that simple business should be the first and foremost criterion in stock selection.

Completed my selling in PI…Have reduced my exposure considerably and now PI formshardlyone % of my core portfolio.

This is just for discl. purpose and it should not in anyway be taken as any negative for the company or its future prospects.

Rgds.

My Q4FY12 as well as FY12 estimates for PI Industries Ltd. :

( fig. In ` cr. )

Q4FY12

Q4FY11

Revenue

Agri-Input

CSM

Polymer

110 - 125

115 - 120

0

105.3

86.1

20.6

Total

225-245

212

EBITDA

43 - 48

39.9

Net Profit

24 - 28

20.4

EPS ( in ` )

9.6 â 11.2

9.11

( fig. In ` cr. )

FY12e

FY11

Revenue

Agri-Input

CSM

Polymer

508 - 522

358 - 362

0

410

241

70

Total

866 - 884

721

EBITDA

153 - 158

125

Net Profit

82 - 86

65.1

EPS ( in ` )

33 â 34.5

29.1

PI Industries is relatively well-placed, thanks to its business model of partnering foreign brands for launching products in India.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/investment-world/stock-insight/article3290892.ece

Another article on PI Industries

http://www.bus-ex.com/article/pi-industries

Will sustain growth rate of about 30-35%: Pi Industries

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-now/corporate/will-sustain-growth-rate-of-about-30-35-pi-industries/videoshow/12729449.cms

The Video talks about prospects of the two segments, new plant in Gujarat getting commissioned by Q2 FY13, and improving margin prospects

Yes… Donald… have gone through all these articles…Q4FY12 results will be interesting to watch…had attended Rallis analyst meet a couple of days back… scenario for Q4 doesn’t sound too good especially on margin front…severe effect is seen on innovative offerings as most of them are premium products… fertilizers costs have eaten up agrochemicals sector growth as fertilisers are a necessity but agrochemicals are still a luxury for most of the farmers… in agrochemicals preference has been for low cost products…kharif will be crucial as any negative on that will build up a lot of inventory in the system… lets hope for the best…if PI can outperform in this sluggish industry qrtr. too then it will be great…

Rgds.

Mahesh,

Any feedback on this,i think the results are on the 29th,i think the whole year has been bad for the agrochemical sector,how do you see the future of this sector?do you see the gujarat plant adding on to the revenues this year/any projections for FY13.BASF is also into this sector,dont they have an advantage of getting products directly from their parent?

Thanx in advance for your advice on this stock,whether to hold on or a good price to add on.i think we have spent quite some time discussing this and building a conviction(long term growth story),two quarters of bad performance does not change the conviction.

Hi biju,

Since the results are just one day away lets wait for it and then discuss in detail…Kharif season is crucial for all agrichem cos. and the progress of kharif season will be clear by mid-july early-august…Results of almost all peers of Pi are out and they have been in line with estimates…New plant will be operational in Q3fy13 and will have meaningful contribution only in fy14… crucial will be order-book position as there has been very slow net book addition in fy12.

Rgds.

Hi mahesh, what do you think about the q4 results?

Still the detailed press release is not out and so the break-up of agri and csm segment revenues is unavailable…hence, it will be better to wait for that…

Prima facie topline for the qrtr. is inline with our estimates of 225-245 cr. while EBITDA margins are way below our estimates at 15.85 % v/s our estimates of 17.5 % +…What has affected EBITDA margins is still unknown as management was expecting a good ramp-up in scale of csm segment from this qrtr. Q4 onwards… if company has been able to achieve the same then why the margins are so low thats unlclear as csm enjoys 21 % + margins…

Lets’ wait for the detailed break-up.

Rgds.

For the full year, sales has grown from 717 crores to 877 crores a growth of around 23%.

Profits from operations ( to avoid the discrepancy of exceptional gains) has increased from around 100 crores to 130 crores.

So although the last quarter q4 fy 12 looks a bit tepid, I think overall company seems to have done a good job. Only problem is that our expectations were quite high in the first place. Now that the stock price has come down from highs of around 600 plus to around 450-490 levels, I think it does need a re look.

Agri companies results will by and large be lumpy and hence I guess one might need to take a slightly longer term view of around 1 year in reviewing the situation instead of the usual quarterly reviews we all take for other companies.

I feel it still is an interesting play in current market scenario and might provide market beating returns if bought closer to 440-460 levels.

disc: no holdings but stock on radar.

Will await the detailed analysis from Mahesh eagerly.

Perfectly put out Hitesh… Companies like PI need to beevaluated at season-wise (Kharif, Rabi) rather than qrtrly…However, my main concern is not the agri segment but the CSM segment on which the entire future of PI is based…Although I agree to the fact that some kind of short term gyrations are natural in CSM segment too but the key monitorable has to be Order Book as we have not got any news on major order wins in FY12…For CSM segment robust addition to Order book is crucial as its an asset heavy business and assets are built only based on orders…FY13 is crucial for CSM segment not only because the new plant is getting operational but also because it will be a trend decider for PI’s CSM segment future…For CSM segment key monitorable is not scale but order-book…

Also, margin scenario since last two qrtrs. is not atall healthy…If CSM segment is operating at 20-21 % EBITDA margins as claimed by the management then does it mean that Agri segment has registered an EBITDA margin of just 9-10 % for Q4 on the back of 11-12 % EBITDA margins of Q3 ? ? ?.. There seems something that management is not communicating with rgds. to CSM segment as the new plant which was to be operational by Q3FY12 (as claimed at the end of FY11) is delayed by almost one year to start in Q2FY13-end…It doesn’t mean that management is not clean… Not atall, PI management is one of the most professional and clean management we have in any mid-cap co., however, there is something happening in business (CSM) that they are not comfortable sharing in public which is natural since they are working on confidential assignments with global innovators…

FY13 should hopefuly be a better year as far as CSM segment order-book is concerned… first half will be crucial…Agri segment is prone to short term gyrations but there company’s network is strong and so it should rebound based on general industry scenario…

I maintain my HOLD on this promising company with close monitoring of various critical aspects.

Rgds.