@Bechu_Mathew - Selling is always hard and more often than not, feels wrong. I have a long history of selling too early. You can see Neuland, Laurus in '20 (I sold both around Nov '20), Apar in '23, Shilchar in '23 - all went on to double at least in the year after I sold. Even last year, I had sold Garware around 2800 which went on to double and Sharda which went on to half (one of those rarest of rare instances where in the near term I got it right). Its a peculiar feeling you have to handle when you spend a lot of time picking good stocks and have to axe them, especially when thesis is playing out exactly as you thought it could - there’s simply no reason to turn bearish and yet you sell. Every single one of these sell decisions is a recipe for future regret. However, you don’t have to resort to resulting (our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with quality of its outcome. refer this).
I have thought about these long and hard back in '23 and the way I dealt with it is described in the Dec '23 post - mainly the Time machine bit and the May '23 posts one and two on treating a portfolio like a team - only the best get to play and my bias towards early retirement and retiring on a high explained in the May '23 post. I think if you read these two posts (and the Thinking in Bets book, which did influence me a lot), you can understand my thought process very well. Its a process that has come up over a long period of time and thought.
So coming to Wockhardt - I had made a ~4x here. It was what my initial thesis was, buying it around 4500 Cr market cap that it deserved to trade at 25000 Cr mcap. Even in Dec, my mind was actively trying to move goalposts to 40-50k Cr mcap. I still think Wocky can achieve this as everything has played so far like a dream. I just felt Axiscades was a better bet at 620 - it was a switch decision which made it easy. Post that I sold more in Feb to buy Bluejet. The last tranche I sold to simply raise cash so I could navigate this period of uncertainty (and it has ended up in financials last week). So it has nothing to do with Wockhardt as a business but everything to do with how I construct/destruct my portfolio and reflects more about me as a person than anything. There’s no way to justify these to others - only my unique and peculiar history of voluntary actions and reactions from the environment that base my priors can justify what I do - and that too only to myself.
So going by history, I won’t be surprised by Wocky getting to 50k Cr market cap next year and the people who bought it from me could still make a lot of money. It is not a tragedy and I wish the business well and might even have another look if valuation provides enough of a differential to justify a bet (which happened once with Shilchar in the past). The same applies to all businesses I have held in the past - I remain constructive on them even if its not something I have in the pf, I follow them closely to see if there’s another bet there to be made.
P.S. By writing often, you can prevent delusions of what your thoughts from the past were. I maintain a personal trading journal where I write infrequently (only at extremes of mood) and write a lot here and I notice it has helped cross-reference my self from the past and improve quality of decision-making. I can’t recommend this highly enough