Many thanks for the kind comments.
I personally find this as an interesting thread., & am in fact working towards building a similar kind portfolio.
Well, we just need to drop the 20-25 year term or even a 10-year term.
Let us re-phrase it this way :
How about finding companies, which are rugged & here to stay., in the sense that their existence & growth have a far better probability of outliving other companies in the arena.
You have already listed quite a few fulfilling this criteria.
In this era of disruption, ‘Buy & Forget’ style of investing would be a folly.
Buy, Hold & Monitor sounds good.
One should monitor & observe the key developments happening in the environment around us.
The process is interesting & will surely be rewarding for the ones with discipline, patience & time-to-time monitoring.
Again, easier said than done.
what about exchanges like BSE, insurances like GIC Re, tower rental like Bharti infra in this portfolio? Though they have slightly lower return ratios, they are durable business.
That’s precisely the point. No one knows which business will last. These businesses are durable when seen from the lens of 2018. Hence, it may be a good idea to review the company and business environment regularly. Today’s hero could be tomorrow’s dud.
Maybe the market believes that consumption is a theme that’s here to stay. And, that could be a reason for seemingly rich valuations.
Great Thread Sameer !!! This reminds me of the time when i had thought about same 5 years back and came up with below portfolio … i do hold atleast 5-6 stocks which you have mentioned in my retirement pf
- HDFC Bank - 14%
- Asian Paints - 12%
- Bajaj Finance -12%
- TCS - 11%
- Maruti Suzuki - 10%
- Kajaria Ceramics - 9%
- Godrej Consumer - 8%
- Britannia Industries - 7%
- Lupin - 5%
- Relaxo - 4%
- Endurance Technologies - 4%
- DCB Bank - 4%
- Eris Lifesciences - 2%
Above pf has successfully generated 26% CAGR in last 5 years !! Thanks to Markets
Cheers and All d best for your investments !!
Note: I do not hold any cyclicals but do short term trades (Holding 2-3 years) when i see any opportunity in them to make most of it.
Amazing stocks, amazing returns. Great work. I feel like copying your portfolio as it is
I may do a bit of modifications like below:
In this portfolio, would like to bet on Sun Pharma/Biocon instead of Lupin. (For Satellite portfolio I like Caplin Point)
Endurance - I like Minda Ind here
DCB bank - My pick Kotak Mahindra Bank
Almost all the stocks from your list are of very awesome quality.
Unfortunately, nothing in the universe is permanent. In the long run, everyone/everything is dead.
However, the portfolio you’ve suggested, with a few changes, would make a great “buy and forget” portfolio considering a 10 year investment horizon.
My choice would be
CARE Ratings (or) CRISIL
That’s 10 stocks, each with a 10% portfolio weightage.
I would like to add Maruti Suzuki surely in the list.
When you plan such a long term portfolio of stocks, what kinda returns (CAGR) do you expect while preparing the list?
Nifty 50 returns + 5%
great companies , can someone enlighten me as why no SBI in anyone’s portfolio mentioned above . We have a solid bank ( under-perfoming now ) having nearly a 3rd of India’s population as its customers, backed by the government and no one is even thinking about it. most of the above cos are its customers too the current issues to it can be absorbed without any loss in its value . reminds me of the famous Fannie mae , which is currently being sold for $1.40 cents , eps of $1.16 cents and a revenue of a 28 billions , income ( EBITDA of 2.3 billions ) and market cap is just 1.6 billions . i thought we were in a value pickr forum
All PSBs are making huge losses over and over because of the NPAs.
The situation was supposed to improve after recapitalization, but there is no avail. When you consider stock as your business, would you want to get into a business where probability of +ve return is lesser. Stock prices are driven by earnings and currently there is no earning in SBI.
Market cap : Rs 2.4 Lac crore
Now GNPA :Rs 2.2 lac crore
Net loss Rs 7718 crore Q4 Results
Results speak for themselves.
For PSU banks survival is the key. At best it is a contra call. I would bet my money on Kotak Mahindra or HDFC or even RBLBank for long term.
NPA OF SBI is 6 % . while assets are nearly 34 lakh crores . meaning it is still valuable , yes an excellent contra bet , definitely not in the category of RBL or KKBK or HDFC in terms of value and reach - SBI is far more valuable , you are comparing a Behemoth with a half pint , ( its asset value is 30 times the asset value of HDFC ) ,
Size isnt everything. SBI is a giant and HDFC is a smallie when you compare assets…but it is like comparing a wild buffalo(without the horns) to a lion. Lion is smaller, but is more agile and has the right arsenal.
Anyways, here is my very LT list that I prepared few months back (which still needs slight monitoring). Looks very similar to other recommendations here.
kotak mahindra bank
Pidilite Industries Ltd
One of the things to monitor would be the emergence of disruptive technologies. Like MRF for instance will be finished if a technology comes that makes tyres obsolete. Would an alternative to paints emerge in the next 30 years? Not likely, but can happen.
MY LT portfolio is quite limited in its breadth
The common investment theme is my belief in the “Bharat - rural, tier 2,3,4” story so that’s why (V-Mart, Jubilant, Reliance (the Jio part), GM Breweries (country liqour)
D-Mart - Kyunki dil hain hindustani and is always looking for value deals
Avanti Feeds - the only outlier.
Assets does not matter for any stock, especially banks. Its all made out of loan. Networth and Net NPA determines value.
My Long term portfolio is -
Bharat electronics - Only indian company supplying arms to army. Also involved in making appliances for smart cities, voter machine etc. With Make in India initiative, i think this company has potential to grow
Maruti Suzuki - Even though people started buying other brands. But majority of the persons are still buying Maruti due to resale value, easily available and cheap spare parts. Also with Vitara and Breeza SUV, it keep on growing.
Exide/Amaraja - Both seems industry leader in battery segment including home UPS and car batteries
Dilip Buildcon - I liked ontime execution. Generally it is rare to see ontime execution in this space. Considering govt is focusing on infrastructure, we will see more road construction projects coming in next few years.
Avanti feeds - Seems biggest player in shrimp business. I dont know much about the business apart from that they are exporting to US. So i haven’t invested in this yet.
Asian paints - again market leader in paints. Currently at high valuation.
HDFC Bank - Considering PSU banks, ICICI and HDFC seems obvious choice for banking. Also out of these two, HDFC seems more policy focused and had good earnings.
Other - Cera, Century Plyboard, Kajaria etc. But these might not be permanent buy and hold
Nice thread, and great work by some of the participants!
As many of you will agree, future belongs to those who can successfully imbibe futuristic technologies into their business models!
To that effect, I would like to point out another private sector bank, Yes Bank, that is strongly focused on initiatives in the field of emerging technologies:
Partnership with Ripple, the crypto company, to use their block chain platform for faster cross border payments (Axis has also done the same) and testing for using XRP to enable real time cross border remittances.(https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomgroenfeldt/2017/11/01/leading-banks-in-using-ripple-blockchain-value-its-speed/3/#1aa94dd64b3a)
Partnership with Coursera to train employees in futuristic technologies:
(YES BANK partners Coursera to make its workforce 'Future Ready' - digitalLEARNING Magazine - Elets Digital Learning)
Initiatives to align lending with eco - sustainability YES BANK launches Green Future: Deposit, India’s first ever green deposit product - India CSR Network)
Partnership with Agri-tech companies for geo tagging of farmland- faster credit disbursal for farmers after remote monitoring and evaluation of their profits using analytics tools, minimising time & resources spent on paperwork. IMO, this could reduce the need for branch presence in rural areas in order to make a loan.
(Banks fund agricultural technology companies for rural lending | Business Standard News)
Program to upskill MSME companies’ promoters, workshops with MDI Gurgaon and corporate partners to help MSMEs manage finances and scale up ( YES grows only if its corporate customers grow!), YES GST platform for MSMEs overdraft facility:
YES Bank launches MSME scale-up series to up-skill MSMEs
Making AIIMS, Rishikesh 100% cashless campus (remember cashless India)
YES Bank helps AIIMS, Rishikesh to become cashless campus
Agenda 25X25, an effort to promote women entrepreneurship.
YES BANK says a Loud Yes to Encourage Women in Entrepreneurship
Several more tech initiatives catering to a diverse set of customers as well as aimed at cutting opex, faster and better customer service delivery (taken from the AR 2018):
While some of these initiatives might sound like run of the mill publicity initiatives, I truly believe any company that adapts its business model to the changing times has a very bright future! And Yes Bank appears hard at trying so.
I’m sure other private banks are also doing a lot of similar stuff and could turn out to be great investments but the value migration opportunity for Pvt banking as a whole is enormous and that’s where this wealth creation opportunity comes in : 70% public sector banks’ market share.
Here I tend to agree with Mr Raamdeo Agarwal!
In sum, pvt lenders with a strong tech focus have a long runway ahead!
Disclosure: invested in Yes Bank with a long term view.
Brilliant… I sold off Yesbank several times Need to hold on for long to get full benefits. Thanks for sharing the details on YesBank, time to buy n hold
I have the following stocks in my longterm poftfolio
Mahindra & Mahindra
Titan, DCM Shriram Ltd, Tata Global Breverages.