I got my data from:
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Official Site of Bajaj states price of 2.38 for Dominar.
And then you get discount also.
So that is much cheaper than Ola Roadster.
In addition. China is restricting lot of minerals,components.
So that adds to the risk
@thakurvi You have a fair point, let me clarify a few things from my perspective:
Having deep pockets doesn’t guarantee a outright success when it comes to technology. Here we are not talking about opening QSR/Fashion retail chain, or something similar, it’s a complicated technology at play here. We are talking about an absolute change in the bike architecture, mindset of leadership team (denial mindset or let’s embrace the change)..!
Just a thought: When China was innovating and embracing the EV revolution back in 2015, what our so called incumbents were doing, except TATA nobody was even thinking about it. So my assumption is, it won’t be so easy for the Indian origin incumbents to do or achieve what Ola has in this very short period of time. They are not agile and driven by same conservative leadership team. Of-course, that doesn’t mean they would be in ashes, they will try to catch up with Ola but by that time Ola would be a little farther. There would be competition but enough playground for everyone.
As long as he continually improves his product quality, resolve logistical issue, I won’t read to much into his social media controversy. He learned his lesson, I won’t really make my investment decision basis the controversies.
Comparison is made to show that EV 2Ws have reached the price parity with ICE, this was one of the main concerns. Notably, In Ola’s case EV 2Ws are even better priced if you compare the specs. Of-course competitors will also launch their bikes and will capture the market share. Just with 20% market share of EV 2W market Ola can thrive.
There is a difference between ex-showroom price and on-road price, I shared the on-road price in my comparison table.
Edit:
disc:
Invested and biased
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Over simplified back of the envelop calculation, just for fun 
- Let’s say in 2030 (5 years from now), total Indian two-wheeler market would be whereabouts 48 million units. (would have been grown at CAGR of 14%).
- Assume EV 2W penetration of 30% by 2030. This is also the realistic target proposed by Indian Gov
- Assume Ola has 20% market share, which is also the market share as of last quarter.
- Assume the Average sale price of it’s 2W would be ‘1 lac INR’ . (it would be more than this as the high end bikes would be expensive)
Total 2W sales in India = 48 Million
EV 2W sale = 14.4 Million (assuming 30% penetration)
Case 1 (more realistic/bear case):
Ola’s market share = 2.88 Million (assuming 20% market share)
Ola’s revenue = 28,800 cr
For PAT margin, i have taken the PAT margin of Bajaj auto which is 15% (approx). I recon it would be significantly higher than this due the backward integration of Ola.
PAT = 4320 cr
Equity capital = 414 cr
EPS = 10,43 INR
Lets give it a valuation similar to Bajaj, however i believe it would be more as Ola would be a matured technology company with their own gigafactory.
PE= 30
Share price at the end of Fy30 = 300 INR (7x from here)
Case 2: (slightly bullish)
Ola’s market share = 3.6 Million (assuming 25% market share)
Ola’s revenue = 36,000 cr
For PAT margin assumed= 18%
PAT = 6480 cr
Equity capital = 414 cr
EPS = 15,65 INR
Lets give it a valuation similar to Bajaj, however i believe it would be more as Ola would be a matured technology company with their own gigafactory.
PE= 30
Share price at the end of Fy30 = 469 INR (11x from here)
Inferences:
- I have assumed just 30% of EV penetration, I recon we would be positively surprised here. Analysts are suggesting anywhere between 25 -80 % EV penetration. Looking at the excitement among consumers and OEMs, 40-50% is achievable
- I haven’t considered any export opportunities that we may have. Currently India exports 4.2 million units every year.
- I haven’t considered the revenue coming out of Ola,s gigafactory. That itself could be a significant business or revenue stream.
disc:
Invested and biased, please do your own research.
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The problem with Ola at this moment is not about if they can grow or not but it is about Cell business (from capex pov and yield has to improve >90% to make good business model) + lPO money has been raised for 5 Gwh to 6.4 Gwh expansion so can they use this monies for 1.4 Gwh to 5 Gwh (As mentioned in concall or SH letter - till FY29, 5Gwh capacity should be sufficient). Now if they go for term loan with SBI consortium (interest is ~13-15% PA) which would be cashflow issue if Auto business does not start throwing cash.
they have provided debt obligation chart in letter but not sure if they included in interest payment.
NCD issue of 1700 crs - would definitely help liquidity but my guess is that it will also come at high interest rate given company’s current situation.
Mr. Bhavish is also working on cab and AI business which is also slightly -ve; given you have only 24 hours in day.
Disc. Invested and biased.
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Two wheeler sales growing at 14% CAGR over a 5 year period is too optimistic. Only twice it has happened and that too when penetration was low. Does not look realistic at all. Around 7-8% CAGR would still be realistic. And the government’s EV penetration target is also unrealisatic. At present, EV penetration in total two wheeler sales is around 7%. There is no way it will go up to 30%. At max, it may go up to 20%
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You have put the whole thing concisely here. There are the three major issues :
- Cashflows and debt management
- Focus of Bhavish
- Logistics(which is not mentioned but is obvious)
I think Bhavish will focus on Ola Electric because he seems to be the kind who does take public narrative seriously. This is his only listed business, so he will have to. Infact, he does hope to raise money for other two also, and all that would depend on how well Ola Electric rewards investors. Last few months, he has infact avoided any controversy and focussed on the company.
Logistics should be a low hanging fruit to manage. People have booked vehicles and not getting deliveries. Parts are not available at service centers. In my opinion, this should not be an issue after 1-2 quarters. Service quality too will improve as more private service centers learn to do EVs and Ola makes the parts available. Infact, this is a good business opportunity for third party manufacturers to make parts for Ola repair, and good for service center guys to start an EV servicing business. Too much demand in comparison to supply.
The cashflows and debt management are the real big problem. And I think that is the only long issue that can cast a long term shadow. Even after they are EBIDTA positive, hopefully by FY2027(although company targets by 2026 end), the Interest and depreciation will eat up a lot of money. The only hope is that there is rapid growth in EV adoption and Ola gains share or at least maintains its 20% share, while increasing gross margins and expanding product profile. However, this is not going to be a share with huge gains in a little time. However, huge gains over large period can happen.
Disc: I think this is a plausible scenario, so I am invested.
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I was going through their SHP for Q1 26 and find that OEM employee welfare trust holding of 5.27% (as in Q4 25) is entirely missing in Q1 26.
Has anyone else noticed it? Were these shares held by employees or it was OLA investing in own shares for the purpose of securing retirement benefits of its employees?
Refer attached screenshots:
It is there but a bit reduced at 5.18%. Check on screener.
AI business is a joke, Krutrim is just a glorified wrapper. Bro can’t hit profitability on his core business and is set out of build out AI models, where even big daddies like OpenAI, Google, Meta and xAI are burning money (investing phase) to keep up with the mounting costs and no tangible ROI in sight yet. Better to focus on applying AI in his business than building models.
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u have assumed average realisation per bike at rs1Lakh, i doubt indian market is there yet. While i dont know the actual numbers, i doubt the current 2wheeler avergae would exceed rs50-55k/bike.
thoughts?
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He have taken average price assumption for the year 2030. It can be possible taking into consideration rise in princes and sales mix of mass selling vehicles and premium vehicles.
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In the post above I had mentioned that they will likely change the use of IPO proceeds. This is going to happen now :
This will give them enough space to use it for other purposes. The Ken’s video had a major premise that 2800 crore can’t be touched. Now it can be.
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But does not SEBI regulation require provide exit to disagreeing shareholder who has bought share in IPO? I hope company does not get again in cross hairs with SEBI. Thanks!
I do not think there is any such regulation. Company must ask the shareholders and it is doing just that. Others can exit in the market, who is stopping them? Please share any SEBI circular in this regard if you have, or the source of your claim. What exactly does “providing exit” even entail?
This is clearly for those shareholders who invested when the company was unlisted and is for the offer duration. The company has been listed for about a year. These do not apply anymore. Thanks.
The loss of market share is the main concern according to me. Was along for the ride till ola had the dominant market share…now it has lost pole position, sales are reducing by 50% year on year and profitability is still far far away. Also ola doesnt have cash on books to service interest payments of debt it has taken and continues to take. They even approved raising qip recently to solve this problem. Positives are if the battery manages to reduce costs in a significant way, there might be some hope, however interest payments will continue to weigh on the financials on the company for the next 2-3 years.
Dicl:- Was invested, exited recently
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“It would be applicable in all those cases where a proposal by the company for changing the stated objective of use of public offer proceeds is dissented by at least 10 per cent of the shareholders and if the amount to be utilised for the objects is less than 75 per cent of the amount raised.”
Let’s hope dissenting shareholder is <10%.
Disc. Invested and biased.
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