no, it has not touched the channel high as yet. its coming above 10960 as of now.
Thanks for sharing these!! Though i belong to the camp 1, I see these signs as a WARNING 
but not red alert. Strictly no fresh investments, will watch out for any developments.
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Us government goes into shutdown ? What it means to us how will our markets react in coming week ?
Views of senior members invited.
@khush
Thereās a good chance markets will respond negatively to this piece of information. But, I believe, this logjam will be resolved in some time. So, over the next couple of weeks US markets may experience sluggishness. But, itās unlikely itāll have any serioust effect on fundamentals of US companies or markets, let alone Indian markets.
Investors have become courageous. During US logjam, US markets were up. Now, that it is over, markets are up even moreā¦
Retail investors do not look at valuations, they follow the sentiment. Corporations analyse, retailers emotionalize
We cannot say for how long the sentiments will sustain. But what we can say is, the higher the market climbs, the deeper it will crawl. The emotional high in a bull run will be commensurate with the apathy during the following bear crawl.
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However retail community is majorly coming via MF SIP route. Now thatās again via corporations /institutions so itās not complete emotional.
But 1000 points rise in sensex in 5-6 trading sessions is something to watch out for.
Let us not forget that the CAGR returns of SENSEX for the last 3 years are just 6.5%.
29th Jan 2015 - 29700
23rd Jan 2018 - 36000
3 Years. CAGR - 6.5%
f you take the TRI, itās closer to 8% CAGR, though the 10 year TRI return (from the peak) is around 7% CAGR.
Point I was trying to make is when you receive a WhatsApp forward that looks like:
Sensex At 36000
30k to 31k = 814 days
31k to 32k = 48 days
32k to 33k = 104 days
33k to 34k = 62 days
34k to 35k = 22 days
35k to 36k = 06 days
It is easy to get convinced that we are in a raging bull run and easy money is being made by everyone. It is easy to take knee jerk reactions like ābe in cashā or āchase the momentumā.
While the fact of the matter is most market participant did not enter the markets at last yearās lows! Most people have been investing for a long time and for them it has been a slow and steady grind/climb.
On a totally mathematical note. One should not say 1000 points took 6 days. But rather talk in terms of percentages. In future, SENSEX will go from 100,000 to 101,000 in a matter of minutes!
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For all those predicting 20%+ correction, ą¤¤ą„ą¤®ą„ą¤¹ą¤¾ą¤°ą„ ą¤®ą„ą¤ą¤¹ ą¤®ą„ą¤ ą¤ą„ ą¤¶ą¤ą„ą¤ą¤° ! I hope it comes true!!
Butā¦our job is to analyze the current situation and take action accordingly, not predict the future. I have a feeling (not a prediction) we may never see NIFTY 10K again 
ā¦I just couldnāt say a proper goodbye to NIFTY 10K. I continue to hold 50% in equity and am unsure whether I should be happy, anxious or sad with the marketās march skywardā¦
There are some great tips on the folly of forecasting in the The Little book of behavioral investing by James Montier:
Letās say you invest according to the following process: Forecast the economy, forecast the path of interest rates, forecast the sectors which will do well within that environment, and finally forecast which stocks will do well within that sector.
Now letās assume you are pretty good at this and you are right on each forecast 70 percent of the time, which is massively above the actual rates of accuracy that we generally see. If you require all four forecasts to be correct, then you have just a 24 percent chance of actually getting it right.
Thereās one full chapter for perma-bears. Perma-bears would do well to use their cash to buy & read this book. Its at these bull and bear market extremes that oneās behavior / character gets tested.
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Again a question? Is everyone index investor here?
This is what has always worked for me.
- Buy a business you like at valuations you are comfortable.
- If it goes above your comfort level do nothing to that business and continue to hold.
- If you have investible surplus look for other businesses which you like and are comfortable with valuation levels.
- Book profits only when a company valuation has gone crazy (None in Nifty right now).
- Start hoarding cash only when you donāt find anything within your valuation comfort.
- Despite all this 20% correction is something we need to be prepared with. No amount of guess work will allow us to avoid that.
Since this discussion started there were tons of stocks with reasonable valuations - Marquee IT names, Whole pharma pack, M&M, L&T and HDFC, ITC, Powergrid, Oil sector. (Have been buying into these).
Last three still remain in valuation comfort zone.
Worrying about Nifty when we donāt invest in Nifty makes no sense to me.
Disc: Fully invested. Nothing at crazy valuation in my PF.
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Can you please give an example what would be considered a crazy valuation?
I would say it depends on individual as well as time horizon. I am comfortable holding a Gillette till 100 PE, a Nestle till 75 PE, Dabur at 50 PE and HDFC Bank till 35 PE, Infosys till 25 PE, . So it is a quantitative as well as qualitative decision.
Disclosure: Not investment advice. Holding all of these from lower levels. Not buying at current valuations.
Ever heard of Big Bazaar Republic Day Sale, Amazon Great Indian Festival Sale, Flipkart Big Billion Days? Thatās the kind of sale we fantasize about. Not āreasonable valuationsāā¦just throwaway prices. And for all the items we want. We hoard our cash for that day. Donāt be offendedā¦we are cheapskates!
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Agree. Even I bought these when they were down for some reason or other. Infy - Sikka, Nestle - Maggi episode etc. But not selling them in hurry.
Sold something overvalued,( Biocon at 400 ) only to see it appreciate 60% more in a month. Learnt hard way to respect something called business momentum.
Agreed. Here are the similar numbers for 2008 before market crashed. Look at how intense bulls were especially if one looks at it in terms of percentage.
15,000, July 6, 2007
16,000, September 19, 2007 - 53 days [6.7%]
17,000, September 26, 2007 - 5 days [6.25%]
18,000, October 09, 2007 - 8 days [5.9%]
19,000, October 15, 2007 - 4 days [5.55%]
20,000, December 11, 2007 - 39 days [5.27%]
21,000, January 8, 2008 - 20 days [5%]
Overall index went up from 15k to 21k which is 40% in just 6 months, while at current levels performance of Sensex is 12% in last 6 months.
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Although PE value of the current market is quite similar to 2007 boom but there is substantial gap in PB value where it was in the range of above 6 at that time it is now nearing 4 . Also earning yield is higher than 20% compared to first week of Jan 2008. Are PB and earning yield giving some comfort ?
You are right to an extent. But in general the overall market movement (on either side) does have an impact on the stocks outside the index.