Nifty PE crosses 24|A statistically informed entry-exit model!

[Donald]

Judging by the plethora of similar posts, this thread runs the risk of becoming increasingly bi-polar, isn’t it? Felt tempted to introduce some fresh thoughts

What I have learnt over the last 7-8 years, Investing is NOT a science, its an ART form. Each time patterns may be similar, but are also contextually different - to place that context into perspective is very important. E.g. No single input is a sufficient condition - its important not to get fixated on any one view. Not to choose extreme positions. Try and position oneself slightly flexibly. For bull market peaks, many things have to happen together, isn’t it. But as always, there are a few conditions that move the needle the most - senior practitioners like to remain extremely alert to these.

Here’s what our senior pros feel about the stage of our markets currently. Copying the gist form my recent post in the Portfolio Restructuring thread

@Donald

If we speak to seniors, there is also agreement that while 10-15-20% corrections may happen anytime (due to over-heated pockets/other triggers), there is no case for a big secular crash/peak bubble stage yet. Despite the buzz in markets (more and more uninitiated folks getting drawn to MF/Direct Equity), they cite absence of mainly three things - which are essential preconditions for bubble peaks A. Where is the huge “Leverage”? B. Where are overwhelming “Sectoral Manias” (at the exclusion of everything else - when if you are not present in these - you feel you have missed out on the bull market) C. Where is the case where you find money-making is too easy?? (Infact most of us are finding it very tough to make money now in these markets, isn’t it? )

Good to always consult folks who have endured at least 2-3 bull market peaks/secular crashes, before hardening informed positions. I always do (I remember only 2008 and my helpless condition, then!)