NDTV (New Delhi Television)- Will they make Breaking news on Dalal Street?

At first let me disclose that I am invested in this stock – it constitutes about 13% of portfolio. I am posting this to share my investment thesis, and also to receive feedback on the same.

Business model
NDTV is in the business of News and Media. They also have lot of online ventures such as NDTV.com, CarandBike.com.

Some of the Highlights

  1. Company has delivered Profitability in 8 out of 9 quarters in the last 2 years.
  2. Company’s employee cost is down from 44% in 2017 to 23.55% in Sep 2020. (Ref: Screener.in)
  3. Company’s Production Expenses are down from 111 Cr to 60.24 (Mar 2016) Cr in Mar 2020, Annually (Ref: https://www.valueresearchonline.com/)
  4. Company’s General Expenses are down from 123 Cr in 2016 to 81 Cr in 2020 (Ref: https://www.valueresearchonline.com/)
  5. Company’s Selling and Distribution Expenses are down from 128 Cr to 40 Cr. (Ref: https://www.valueresearchonline.com/)
  6. Company has consistently got rid of their top Anchors and are focusing on getting their TV business back to profitability.
  7. Their main focus has been NDTV.com and is consistently profitable for the company. Also they won 300+ cr deal with Taboola.com for Advertisements. Also their other online ventures doing well too.
  8. Their long term liabilities have decreased from 705 Cr in 2009 to 89 Cr in 2020. (Ref: Screener.in)
  9. Promotoers are very reliable and have consistently maintained 60+% holding in company.
  10. They closed down their Non Profitable business such as General Entertainment Channel and focusing on their core skills.

Weakness:

  1. Until now Promoters were not focusing on profitability of the company and I feel they are little emotional when taking some of the business decision. For. eg: Even though hindi news channel is loss making since ages, they are refusing to shut it down.

Threats:

  1. The biggest threat for NDTV is Goverment, Especially NDTV is very risky stock when it comes to goverment trying to control the media.

Opportunities:

  1. Get rid of some of the loss making business such as Hindi News Channel or NDTV Profit.
  2. Focus on Online News.

For More Details:
https://www.screener.in/company/NDTV/consolidated/#top

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I noticed this was coming in improving metrics, but never researched further. Would you please list the online ventures they have and give an overview of all the major business activities apart from NDTV TV channels? Among TV channels, how many many are operated by NDTV?

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A good idea in general when investing is to go through rating agencies reports. From the recent CARE report:

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One should keep in mind that NDTV is actually controlled by Ambani. No view on the stock.

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So NDTV was caught indulging in an online donation fraud in the name of children affected by Coronavirus pandemic!

Both UNICEF & Childline India Foundation have denied any association with the donation campaign @ndtv is running in their name.

Sources:

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NDTV has declared their results and they are the best ever!!
Also, out of last 12 quarters NDTV has recorded profit in 10 and losses were marginal in 2 quarters.

Has the tide turned? Is it a turnaround story?

Disclaimer: Invested in the stock for more than 2 years now!!

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New Delhi Television (NDTV) is one of the leading news broadcasting companies in India. The company operates three channels namely NDTV 24X7, NDTV India and NDTV Prime. The company earns revenue from advertisements sales (63% of FY21 revenue), event sales and subscription revenue (DTH and cable operators). Advertising revenue includes sale of free commercial time (FCT), sponsorship of programs, etc. Subscription income comprises of revenue from Cable and Direct-to-Home (DTH) Providers and from international distribution operations. Event sales are derived from special programmes or campaigns that are sponsored.

NDTV Convergence Limited, a subsidiary of the company, is set up to use the synergies between television, Internet and mobile. NDTV Convergence owns the digital media business of the group and controls all NDTV websites, including NDTV.com

In the last few years, there have been several structural, transformational changes in the company.

There has been large-scale debt reduction.


(D/E decreased from approx. 4 in 2018 to now 0.3!)

They have taken cost-cutting measures.

They have divested their 45.56% stake in the loss-making business, Fifth Gear Venture.

They also sold the non-core Gadgets360 business.

They have also decreased debtor days, by making provisions for and writing off bad debts, as well as improving collection efforts.

Recent financial performances, too, have been best-ever with highest-ever revenues and profits.

RoCE is now >50%, and yet trades at <12x TTM PE.

A penalty has been imposed on promoters: “The Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) had issued a notice dated 5 September 2018 to Dr. Prannoy Roy, Mrs. Radhika Roy and RRPR Holding Private Limited (Promoter Group Company) in regard to alleged violations under Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992 (“SEBI Act”) read with SEBI (Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices Relating to Securities Market) Regulations, 2003 and Equity Listing Agreement read with Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 on account of alleged non-disclosure of the loan agreements entered in 2008 – 10 by – (i) the Promoter Group Company with ICICI Bank Limited, and (ii) the Promoter Group Company and Promoters with Vishvapradhan Commercial Private Limited. SEBI vide its order dated 24 December 2020 imposed a penalty of INR 2,500 lakhs (INR 25 crores) on the Promoters and Promoter Group Company under Section 15HA of the SEBI Act, to be paid jointly and severally within 45 days of the receipt of the order and a penalty of INR100 lakhs (INR 1 crore) each has been imposed on the Promoters under Section 23H of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956, to be paid within 45 days of the receipt of the order.”

The key risk is of litigation and court cases.

Disc- I have a tracking position

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Good Q4 numbers. Slight degrowth QoQ

Working capital has improved significantly in FY22.

Debt further reduced, D/E now <0.1

Disc- I have a tracking position

Often times I have seen that in a dying industry, it is possible for cos to have high roce but low multiples. The valuation comes from optimism of investor which is negative for dying industries

Entire world over, chord cutting is the trend. Relying on citizen journalist vs biased media is the trend.

In Vijay kedia sirs own words, i would invest in sunrise sector at any cost. I would avoid investing in sunrise sector at any cost.

Cos like ndtv, autoline, everready can be considered to be deep value or cigar butt type companies. Not that there is anything wrong in that style of investing but it requires extreme amounts of patience, triggers & deep expertise imho

Personally find it much more easier from psychological pov to stick to cos with some barriers to entry, barriers to scale, durable competitive advantages, and industry growth (tailwinds). Ndtv has lost all these advantages. Ndtv revenue is also directly tied to their viewership which is itself cyclical depending on the flavor of politics (republic TV would dominant when RW politics dominante & ndtv might when LW politics dominantes). Personally don’t have expertise to predict cycles in politics which also makes ndtv a risky net (setting aside fact that ndtv ownership itself is politically motivated).

https://twitter.com/VijayKedia1/status/1329763568246349825?t=e0WsGCTeEhQsJm5lLJawVA&s=19

^ negative sales growth in last 10 years & 5 years, 3 years

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Hostile takeover of NDTV is being attempted.

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After 3 years invested into the company, i exited since Adani’s have taken over last free media company in the country. But this was truly a multibagger with more than 11X return. What are others doing? Are they exiting or staying put?

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ndtv latest.pdf (187.8 KB)
Ndtv has started operations.