Multi-Disciplinary Reading - Book Reviews

[Mudit.Kushalvardhan]

This is generally true that if something has survived till today, then it will keep on surviving in future. But practically this may not be true. I think the restaurant he gave example of , has also been shut recently. There are many examples. Kodak has been a good company for many years in past. Newspaper companies have been in existence from centuries but now nowhere to be found. Some theories are true in theory but not in practice.

[Apurva_Dubey]

John Brockman runs this group blog called edge.org – the mainstay of this blog is “the Edge annual question” series which ran for 20 years, ending in 2018. This series entailed John sending a chosen question to 200+ experts in their respective fields (mostly from academia) asking them to provide an answer in less than 1000 words. Some regular participants in this question series were luminaries like Daniel Kahneman, Steven Pinker, Richard Dawkins to name a few.

The question series has been published as books as well. I’ve read most of the question series in bits and pieces. But the one I read end-to-end was the last one, which is called the “The Last Question”. In this one John asked the experts: “What’s your last question, the question for which you will be remembered?”

This book provides fascinating insight into what the best minds around the world care about the most. It’s a very short book – I’d recommend reading it if you like this kind of stuff.

I have put below the questions I liked the most –

• How can an aggregation of trillions of selfish, myopic cells discover the unwitting teamwork that turns that dynamic clump into a person who can love, notice, wonder, and keep a promise? |
  DANIEL C. DENNETT

• Are people who cheat vital to driving progress in human societies? | ALUN ANDERSON

• How do we best build a civilization that is galvanized by long-term thinking? | SAMUEL ARBESMAN

• Will it ever be possible for us to transcend our limited experience of time as linear? | NOGA ARIKHA

• Can we re-design our education system based on the principle of neurodiversity? | SIMON BARON-COHEN

• Why are we so often kind to strangers when nobody is watching and we have nothing to gain? | PAUL BLOOM

• Will we soon cease to care whether we are experiencing normal, augmented, or virtual reality? | ANDY CLARK

• Why do we experience feelings of meaning in a universe without purpose? | JAMES CROAK

• Are the ways qualia relate to computation, creativity to free will, risk to probability, morality to epistemology, all the same question? | DAVID DEUTSCH

• Can we develop a procedure that, in principle, would tell us whether or not our universe is a simulation (analogous to the way the now proven Poincaré conjecture can tell us the universe’s shape)? | KEITH DEVLIN

• Can human intuition ever be reduced to an algorithm? | GERD GIGERENZER

• How can the few pounds of grey goo between our ears let us make utterly surprising, completely unprecedented, and remarkably true discoveries about the world around us, in every domain and at every scale, from quarks to quasars? | ALISON GOPNIK

• What will happen to human love when we can design the perfect robot lover? | KURT GRAY

• Why is it that the maximum information we can pack into a region of space does not depend on the volume of the region, but only on the area that bounds it?

• How does a thought become a feeling? | MARCO IACOBONI

• Are the laws of physics unique and inevitable? | GORDON KANE

• Will human psychology keep pace with the exponential growth of technological innovation associated with cultural evolution? | CRISTINE H. LEGARE

• Where were the laws of physics written before the universe was born? | ANDREI LINDE

• How will the world be changed when battery storage technology improves at the same exponential rate seen in computer chips in recent decades? | JOHN MARKOFF

• How much of what we call “reality” is ultimately grounded and instantiated in convincing communication and storytelling? | BARNABY MARSH

• Does the infinite multiverse of cosmologists, in which all that is physically possible occurs, contain realizations of our unruly paradoxes of infinity (Hilbert’s Hotel, Thomson’s lamp, 1+2+3+4 . . . = −1/12; etc.)? | WILLIAM POUNDSTONE

• Will we ever be able to predict earthquakes? | PAUL SAFFO

• Given the nature of life, the purposeless indifference of the universe, and our complete lack of free will, how is it that most people avoid ever being clinically depressed? | ROBERT SAPOLSKY

• Is a human brain capable of understanding a human brain? | RENÉ SCHEU

• Is civilization’s demand for water a dividing or unifying force? | LAURENCE C. SMITH

• What would the ability to synthesize creativity do to cultural evolution? | NINA STEGEMAN

• Do the laws of physics change with the passage of time? | BRUCE STERLING

• Is there a design to the laws of physics, or are they the result of chance and the laws of large numbers? | LEONARD SUSSKIND

• How will we cope when we are capable of keeping humans alive longer than our optimal life expectancy? | RICHARD H. THALER

• Can rational beings such as Bayesian robots, humans, and superintelligent AIs ever reach agreement? | FRANK TIPLER

• Will the creation of a superhuman class from a combination of genome editing and direct biological-machine interfaces lead to the collapse of civilization? | J. CRAIG VENTER

[VIFL]

Lao Tzu’s Tao Te Ching (Translation by Stephen Mitchell)

If you like the Bhagavad Gita, you will enjoy reading Tao Te Ching.

Here are some of my highlights.

• Every being in the universe is an expression of the Tao. It springs into existence, unconscious, perfect, free, takes on a physical body, lets circumstances complete it. All things end in the Tao as rivers flow into the sea.

• He who stands on tiptoe doesn’t stand firm. He who rushes ahead doesn’t go far. He who tries to shine dims his own light. He who defines himself can’t know who he really is. He who has power over others can’t empower himself. He who clings to his work will create nothing that endures. If you want to accord with the Tao, just do your job, then let go.

• If you want to shrink something, you must first allow it to expand. If you want to get rid of something, you must first allow it to flourish.

• Try to make people happy, and you lay the groundwork for misery. Try to make people moral, and you lay the groundwork for vice.

• When they lose their sense of awe, people turn to religion. When they no longer trust themselves, they begin to depend upon authority.

• The greatest love seems indifferent, the greatest wisdom seems childish. The Tao is nowhere to be found. Yet it nourishes and completes all things.

• In the pursuit of knowledge, every day something is added. In the practice of the Tao, every day something is dropped.

[Mudit.Kushalvardhan]

I have read Osho’s commentary on Lao Tsu’s Tao…Its awesome…Must read.

[phreakv6]

Exercised, Daniel Lieberman, 2020 - Its not like we don’t know exercise is beneficial but why is it so hard to start and even harder to persist? This book has a great perspective on exercise from multiple vantage points, empathizing with our inability to get started and yet emphasizing on why we should.

My notes -

• We never evolved to exercise. No one ever walked or ran several miles just for health

• Exercise is big business - with special clothes, equipment, memberships and events

• “Wanting” to exercise is a myth, despite what “exercicists” claim. Our natural instincts avoid optional exertion

• Tarahumara Native American tribe even today run unimaginable distances - they don’t train for this (they find it preposterous), and are not built for it either (non-athletic frames). They run once a year - just like that, for up to 70 miles - its a deeply spiritual ceremony, a powerful form of prayer for them

• Tarahumara tribe on average walks foraging for 10 miles a day - this is their “training”

• Genes play key roles in sports and exercise, including our “motivation” to

• Truthiness - Something that feels true because we want it to

• WEIRD - Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich and Democratic (96% of studies on exercising and behavior comes from this sample)

• Hadza tribe does light activities for 2.5 hours and vigorous activities for 3.5 hours - rest of the time is spent “resting”

• PAL - Physical Activity Level = Energy spent in a day / Energy spent by body at rest. PAL is 1.4-1.6 for sedentary office workers. Hunter-gatherers avg 1.8-1.9. Factory workers and farmers about 1.8 (An hour or two of walking would make you as active as a hunter gatherer)

• RMR - Resting Metabolic Rate - about 70 cal/hr while resting in a chair for a 82 kg adult (1700 cal/day for doing nothing). This is flexible (will be lower when you starve - body adapts)

• BMR - Basal Metabolic Rate - Adjusts for energy spent in balancing, digesting, regulating body temp. Etc in RMR (so measure it after you woke up from sleep). Usually 10% lower than RMR

• People who work sitting down get paid more than those that work standing up (Ogden Nash)

• Standing costs 8-10% more calories than sitting down

• People who rarely sit on chairs have 21-41% stronger backs. Weak backs lack endurance and increases chair dependency (vicious cycle)

• Every hour spent sitting is 1. an hour not spent being active, 2. Harmfully elevates sugar and fat in bloodstream 3. Triggers our immune system to attack our bodies (inflammation)

• Chronic low grade inflammation from sitting can attack organs by damaging tissues and lead to type-2 diabetes and heart disease

• Fat is stored subcutaneously (under the skin) or on organs. Organ fat up to 1% of body weight is OK and helps in quick burst of energy but more can mess with metabolism, attract WBCs and trigger cytokine inflammation (paunch is a tell-tale sign of organ fat)

• Instead of sitting, engage in low-intensity non-exercise physical activities for 5-6 hours (Equivalent to 1 hour of running)

• Post-prandial state - upto 4 hours after meal. Body is busy digesting and transporting fats and sugars. Important to move at least moderately during this period to avoid excessive fat storage

• Cortisol from stress also makes us crave sugar and fat rich foods (and stores organ fat)

• Take breaks from sitting and move around, squat briefly often. This fights low-intensity inflammatory fire

• To avoid back pain from sitting, posture alone doesn’t help - a strong back begets a better posture

• Sleep, along with physical activity has declined alongside the industrial revolution

• Zebras sleep only 3-4 hrs a day while a lion sleeps 13 (prey animals vs carnivores)

• Lack of sleep induces stress (vicious cycle), depresses immune system and stores more organ fat and wreaks havoc in digestive hormones

• Sleeping pill usage in American adults has tripled since ‘98

• Energy for short bursts comes from creatine phosphate (CrP). Next from glycolysis of sugar molecules (quick snipping of bonds to recharge ATP). (Fit human can run 15 miles from this sugar snipping). These two processes don’t need oxygen. Burning sugar however liberates 18x more energy from sugar but needs oxygen. (If you want to run far) Energy from body fat takes more steps and hence more time to use.

• Higher VO2 max helps you run far. 30s sprints it doesn’t matter. 10% energy is from aerobic respiration in a 100m dash. 30% for 400m and 60% for 800m and 80% for a mile

• White and red muscle fibres are fast and slow twitch respectively. White/fast helps sprinters while red/slow helps long-distance runners (proportions of each varies by training) - thats why Usain Bolt might struggle long-distance

• HIIT - High-intensity Interval Training. Short bouts of intense exercise like sprinting with less intense periods for recovery - sprinter faster without compromising endurance

• HIIT increases heart’s ability to pump blood - chambers larger and more elastic, improves muscles ability to transport glucose

• CrossFit - alternate intense cardio with equally intense resistance exercises (kettlebell, handstand pushups, climbing ropes)

• Strength vs Power - how much force I can produce vs how rapid can I produce it. There’s a tradeoff between the two. We benefit more from the latter than former in everyday life

• Resistance exercise - force such a body’s weight or external load like dumbbell or weights that resist your muscles’ effort to contract (Concentric, isometric or eccentric contraction - first helps with movement while latter with strength)

• After 3 weeks of bed rest, leg muscles can shrink upto 10% (astronauts lose 20% in 2 weeks). As we age muscle fibres dwindle in size and count (atrophy). Grip strength reduces by 25% between 25-75

• Due to decline in muscle mass, people load their bones less, leading to osteoporosis (not to mention heart disease and type-2 diabetes from less physical activity)

• We didn’t evolve to exercise but to be physically active, like walking. We would also carry loads half of our body weight (lugging wood, children, water etc.). Walking is poor for weight-loss (can take more than half-hour per day for many months or years, since it is very efficient on calories)

• Dieting vs Exercise - cutting down 700 cals vs exercising 700 cals had same effect on weight loss - but exercise reduced organ fat as well so is preferred

• If you are in 30s or 40s, lacking endurance to run - start by walking and running - first a quarter mile, then half, then 1 mile, then 2 and so on - mix walking and running - you can do 5 miles a day jog comfortably even when you are old

• At rest, heart pumps 4-5 lts of blood per min. While running it can go up 4-5x more

• Long periods of vigorous exercise like running can stimulate opioids, endorphins and cannabis like chemicals (runner’s high)

• Long post-reproductive lifespans are rare in the animal world but humans evolved to it. Active grandparents help alleviate the load on foraging mothers and hunting fathers and help raise children

• Relationship between death (mortality) and illness (morbidity) - hunter-gatherers stay healthy until they die - health span and lifespan overlap - industrial humans have lengthening lifespan with a worsening health span (healthy until 50 but living till 80 - exercise can keep you healthy till 75 while living till 80)

• Exercise is done against one’s wishes and is maintained only because the alternative is worse

• Dopamine, serotonin, endorphins (20mins or more of vigorous exercise) and endocannabinoids (several hours of physical activity) reward us for our activity

• Prescription - 150 mins of moderate-intensity (50-70% of max heart rate) or 75 mins of vigorous-intensity (70-85% of max heart rate) aerobic exercise per week (walking, jogging or cycling) with two sessions of weights (working all muscle groups - legs, hips, back, core, shoulders and arms)

• Benefits of cardio - stronger, supple heart, higher volume of plasma (less viscous blood), clear unclogged arteries, raises HDL and lowers LDL and keeps resting BP low. Also inc. muscle fibres, burns organ fat, improve burning sugar, lowers inflammation, improves bone density, stimulates immune system and improves cognition and mood. Few mins of HIIT (say sprinting, stair-running) can have same benefits as 30mins of aerobics

Regular physical exercise helps slow ageing and prolong life. Bridging the health span and life span is very important if we are to live our 50-80s happy instead of grudging our existence. I got this book to motivate myself to get started (and I did). It has made me mindful on several aspects and I high recommend reading it alongside “why we sleep” and “breath”. 9/10

[phreakv6]

Exit, Voice & Loyalty, Albert Hirschman, 1970 - When organisations, countries, groups, products, people deteriorate, their citizens, customers, members have an option to either voice their opinion if they want the product / service to be improved or they can exit. What drives people to do either, which ones are most efficient and under what circumstances is what this book is about. To think someone can take so abstract a notion and think so deeply about it is why we need things like sociology and political economy. This treatise is a work of a genius

My Notes -

• Latitude for deterioration - Human societies create surplus above subsistence that lets them take considerable deterioration in their stride (higher the surplus, higher the latitude for det.)

• Modern economy keeps despotism/destruction in check - no monarch, tyrant, despot can survive economic deterioration for long (coffee is incompatible with anarchy - Pinilla was driven out from dictatorship in Colombia when coffee prices collapsed) is a popular belief with growth in capitalism. This belief however is mistaken as economic growth has not prevented wars

• An economy producing a surplus is not at liberty to not produce a surplus or produce less - thus its no different from an economy from a no-surplus or subsistence economy

• The paradox is that production frontier expands but individual firms are barely getting by at any given point. Man likes surplus but is fearful of paying its price (our inability at understanding “enough” stems from this paradox)

• Organisational slack - Firms are normally aiming at “satisfactory” rather than a highest possible rate of profits

• Macroeconomic policies can’t cure microeconomic slack (can make it worse?) - while low rate of savings, high level of prices or insufficient r&d affect the economy, the micros - management, design, salesmanship, labour unions cause considerable slack (low rates for eg. can make this worse)

• While slack is a bad thing, it also helps during downturn - there’s always ways to cut costs, improve efficiency by going after this slack (as Elon did with X). Slack is continuously generated in an economy. This decay generates its own cure (counterforces)

• Slack gets cured through Exit or Voice. Exit is economical and Voice political (this is pure elegance in thought!)

• Exit is felt through a set of statistics while voice through faint grumbling or violent protest. Former is straight-forward while latter roundabout and messy. Economists prefer the “Exit” option (invisible hand)

• Exit in some domains can be branded as criminal (for desertion), defection and treason

• Relying on “Exit” as an org - it can go beyond the point of no return where losses weaken the firm so badly that bankruptcy will occur before remedial measures can.

• A drop in quality of product should never exceed the point of no return. When demand is inelastic, the problem (customers on the edge of “Exit”) may not show up until its too late. (Happens often with countries in downfall - you can’t renounce your citizenship easy). If demand is too elastic, the firm won’t have time to recuperate from a mass exit

• A mixture of “alert” (who voice/exit) and “inert” customers (who grumble but stay) will provide the firm sufficient time to react (Amazon reviews make voice so dominant that makes every customer an “alert” customer though)

• Exit could fail to cause revenue loss if firm kept gaining new customers as it lost old (hence SaaS firms monitor churn - though few do much to listen to the whys of the churn)

• When uniform quality decline hits a industry, customers churn throughout and decline sets into the industry as a whole (mergers/monopoly might be preferred here)

• Voice is the only option when exit is unavailable (family, state, church)

• Voice is a more commanding option in less developed countries where options are less (Silent-exit is preferred when options are aplenty, as in developed economies)

• What keeps a customer inert could be switching costs (rational) or loyalty (less rational)

• Effort to voice would be proportional to the advantage to gained multiplied by the probability to influence a favourable outcome

• Inexpensive, nondurable good vs Expensive durable good (automobile) can also influence voicing

• Exit is either/or but voice is an art, constantly evolving in new directions. Presence of an exit usually atrophies the art of voice (classic eg. is brain drain)

• State monopolies like alternatives so they don’t have to address glaring inefficiencies. A deterioration in rail service is not a serious matter if other long distance transportation like trucks exist. They are also insensitive to customers switching long as they have the backing of the national treasury (our PSUs have lived by the same logic)

• If you dont like the management you should sell the stock results in perpetuating bad management and their bad policies

• Customers who drop out first as price increases aren’t the same as the ones who exit as quality drops. Differences in quality inflicts very different losses to diff customers (even if quality can be expressed in price terms)

• Easy exile in Latin American countries promoted Exit of political opponents to neighboring countries (it was in fact preferred). Japan offered no such option being an island and there was always compromise worked out through Voice

• Those who have nowhere else to go are not powerless but influential - in a two-party system centrist views might isolate the hard-right or hard-left causing defection or sitting out

• Loyalty makes exit less likely and might activate Voice. It is however just a barrier with a finite cost, like protective tariffs

• Effectiveness of Voice is strengthened by the possibility of Exit, though willingness to use it also reduced by Exit

• Boycott - on the border between Voice and Exit is the “threat” to Exit with a promise of re-entry (points of exit and entry will be far from identical though)

• High fees for entry and stiff penalties for exit increase loyalty (cults work this way!). Loyalty leads to self-deception (severe the initiation, higher the self-deception - why weddings have so many rituals)

• Penalties of excommunication, defamation or deprivation of livelihood keep Exits in check

• Exit from public goods and some orgs/services may cause further deterioration (as is happening with Vi / Vodafone and in public schools in the US)

• Some loyalists may prefer not to leave so as to not leave the org / country in a worser shape - worse it gets, the harder it is to leave (”right or wrong, my country” can become “the wrong-er the my-er”)

• Domestication of dissenters is achieved by assigning the role of “official dissenter”. With the label, his official position becomes explicit and predictable and hence “powerless” (phenomenal insight)

• Orgs that treat Exit as treason and Voice as mutiny are unlikely to be viable in the long run

I found in this book a useful way to think abstractly about several different situations that apply to countries, companies, societies and its orgs. Economics emphasizes exits as with Adam Smith’s invisible hand but its not as straight-forward in a lot of situations where Voice would have been preferred. We pay so little attention to Voice and it could be to our detriment if that option doesn’t exist or if it isn’t used. In a zoomed out view it is not hard to see why cryptocurrencies rose up and why current geopolitics is leading to long-term de-dollarization for eg. - without the threat of exit, there’s nothing that can improve fed and the US govt’s behavior (song and dance over debt ceilings and govt. shutdowns). Once you start applying Voice/Exit, you will see it everywhere. 11/10

[lakshay_agarwal]

The Secret Letters of the monk who sold his Ferrari by Robin Sharma

Basically it talks about all the important points we need to live our life with, and make these are core values. Sometimes these are so simple yet we take it for granted - that’s why he has made the person i.e. Jonathon the main character realise these core values by travelling around the world in search of ‘talisman’ which would have these secret letters to. These would be kept with one person all in different places. Each person having their own culture and value.

The 7 important letter’s collected throughout the journey ( I would highly recommend to read and then try to process it, before going on to the next point so that it does make a positive impact )

1. The Power of Authenticity
   The most important gift we can give ourselves is the commitment to living our authentic life. To be true to ourselves, however, is not an easy task. We must break free of the seductions of society and live life on our own terms, under our own values and aligned with our original dreams.
   We must tap our hidden selves; explore the deep-seated, unseen hopes, desires, strengths and weaknesses that make us who we are. We have to understand where we have been and know where we are going. Every decision we make, every step we take, must be informed by our commitment to living a life that is true and honest and authentic to ourselves and ourselves alone. And as we proceed, we are certain to experience fortune well beyond our highest imagination.

2. Embrace Your Fears was the title. I chuckled. Of course this talisman would be about fear. I continued to read:
   What holds us back in life is the invisible architecture of fear. It keeps us in our comfort zones, which are, in truth, the least safe places in which to live. Indeed, the greatest risk in life is taking no risks. But every time we do that which we fear, we take back the power that fear has stolen from us for on the other side of our fears lives our strength. Every time we step into the discomfort of growth and progress, we become more free. The more fears we walk through, the more power we reclaim. In this way, we grow both fearless and powerful, and thus are able to live the lives of our dreams.

3. Live with Kindness
   It is important to remember that just as our words are our thoughts verbalised,
   so our deeds are our beliefs actualized. No action, no matter how small, is insignificant how we treat someone defines how we treat everyone, including ourselves. If we disrespect another, we disrespect ourselves. If we are mistrustful of others, we are distrustful of ourselves. f we are cruel to another, we will be cruel to ourselves. If we can’t appreciate those around us, we won’t appreciate ourselves. With every person we engage, in everything we do, we must be kinder than expected, more generous than anticipated, more positive than we thought possible.
   Every moment in front of another human being is an opportunity to express our highest values and to influence someone with our humanity.
   We can make the world better, one person at a time.

4. Make Small Daily Progress
   The way we do small things determines the way that we do everything.
   If we execute our minor tasks well, we will also excel at our larger efforts.
   Mastery then becomes our way of being. But more than this—each tiny effort builds on the next, so that brick by brick, magnificent things can be created, great confidence grows and uncommon dreams are realised. The truly wise recognise that small daily improvements always lead to exceptional results over time.

5. To Lead Your Best Life, Do Your Best Work
   There is no insignificant work in the world. All labor is a chance to express personal talents, to create our art and to realize the genius we are built to be. We must work like Picasso painted: with devotion, passion, energy and excellence. In this way, our productivity will not only become a source of inspiration to others, but it will have an impact-making a difference in the lives around us. One of the greatest secrets to a life beautifully lived is to do work that matters. And to ascend to such a state of mastery in it that people can’t take their eyes off of you.
   a. Chase happiness- Not money

   

6. The Purpose of Life Is to Love
   How well you live comes down to how much you love. The heart is wiser than the head. Honor it. Trust it. Follow

7. Stand for Something Bigger than Yourself
   There are no extra people alive today. Every single one of us is here for a reason, a special purpose —a mission. Yes, build a beautiful life for yourself and those you love. Yes, be happy and have a lot of fun. And yes, become successful, on your own terms rather than on those suggested to you by society. But—above all else—be significant. Make your life matter. Be of use. And be of service to as many people as possible. This is how each of us can shift from the realm of the ordinary into the heights of the extraordinary. And walk among the best who have ever lived.

This book is a very short and nice read - it’s like when sometime’s you don’t expect anything out of it, you get the most ( be it learning, fun or anything that means a lot to you). It made me take

So over all I would give it a ( 8.5/10 ). Happy Weekend !

[phreakv6]

The Price of Time, Edward Chancellor, 2022 - This is a topic I have pondered extensively on, from a micro (what makes us discount and is it same for everyone?) and macro perspective, so this book was thoroughly enjoyable and enlightening. It examines the origins of interest, how it was set and mostly on how things have devolved in the last 100 yrs of monetary experimentation. It is unequivocally against interest rates set at levels close to zero, or any level set below natural rate of growth or even the idea that it should be centrally managed at all and mirrors the Austrian school of thought.

What we have had in the last 15 years is so abnormal that we think of it as the norm purely from availability bias. The era of easy money, globalisation, low interest rates, cheap goods, low inflation and consequently the exceptional world peace might be at cross-roads. We needn’t throw the baby with the bath water but there’s always the risk of that

My notes -

• Interest constitutes a reward for idleness and is a basic cause of inequality and poverty (Proudhon, 1849)

• Interest is a fair reward for use of capital for a period of time, and time has value (Bastiat, 1849)

• To abolish interest on capital would result in annihilation of credit and the death of capital (Bastiat)

• A bad economist pursues a small current benefit for a large disadvantage in the future (Bastiat)

• It is important for health of economy that bad businesses (inefficient producers) be allowed to die (Hazlitt, 1946)

• Easy money encourages highly speculative ventures that cannot continue except under the artificial conditions that gave birth to them. It discourages thrift, saving and investment, slows down inc. in productivity (Hazlitt)

• GFC (2008) pushed central bankers to lower interests to levels not seen in five millennia. It encouraged households to spend more and save less and thwarted creative destruction and impeded reallocation of capital to productive resources (as Hazlitt predicted in 1946)

• Low interest rates PE barons and Wall St. to borrow for peanuts while incomes barely grew and low-paying jobs proliferated

• Interest rates on reserve currency cannot be below economy’s growth rates for long - it drives capital out to emerging markets (tightening causes flows to reverse and commodities to crash)

• Interest is intrinsic to human nature and impatience - it expresses their time preference (Bohm-Bawerk and Fisher)

• Nature’s productivity has a strong tendency to keep the rate of interest up (Fisher)

• 33.33% was the standard rate of interest in Babylon for Barley loans (2nd and 3rd mil. BC). Interest rates would vary based on purpose. After crop damage interest would be forgiven (Hammurabi)

• Babylon, Greece or Rome - interest have always followed a U-shaped curve over centuries - declining as civilization was rising and prospered and rising with its decline and fall. Very low rates were calm before the storm

• Drastic fall in Interest rates were preceded by sudden discovery of treasures - like Spanish and the Inca Gold or Augustus in Rome - housing prices rose. Periods of scarcity, interest rates rose and resources were rationed

• Lending is a inter-temporal transaction. While lenders surrenders exchange value of money, he retains its “store of value” through a collateral

• In 12th century Spain, penalty for a banker’s failure was beheading

• Usury redefined in middle ages - as loans on consumption than on productive ventures. Then as receiving gain on loans without risk

• A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush (earliest known time preference)

• In a steadily expanding economy, most people will become rich over time - with future income exceeding current income, people will value it less (hence ageing populations will have falling rates)

• Interest rate must be free to find its own levels (Locke). When free, it would find a level that’s in sync with the natural rate of growth (r*). Discrepancies between the two will show in the price levels (inflation)

• When bond yields far exceed the growth in national income, existing debt becomes burdensome and bankruptcy beckons (Debt trap. US can get into a vicious debt spiral in due course)

• When asset price bubbles proliferate, credit booms, finance crowds out honest endeavor, savings collapse and capital is misallocated on a grand scale, chances are market rates of interest are not aligned with natural rate (What has happened since 2008)

• John Law, a gambler and fugitive fled to France and somehow ended up controlling the central bank and his genius is what led to the Mississippi bubble. People even believed France had become incredibly rich under Law (it was all paper wealth)

• The newly minted millionaires of France under Law’s credit expansion and market manipulation embarked on an orgy of high living until bubble burst, currency tanked and funds fled France. Law banned owning precious metals.

• The idea that national bank could drive down interest rates by purchasing govt. debt probably originated with Law in France (Newton took it up later in England, then Keynes advocated it and our Fed repeated the mistakes)

• The stock market bull seeks to condense time into a few days to discount the long march of history, and capture the value of all future riches. At low rates, the speculator becomes a psychopath

• As national bank turns on the printing presses to buy govt. debt. The newly created money is trapped in the financial system, where it inflates financial assets rather than consumer prices and only slowly seeps into the wider economy (Cantillon, 1720)

• Interest is the barometer of trust and it rises and falls with the cycle. Lax financial behaviour, alongside too much trust thus peaks the cycle. 2% interest leads to financial folly (Bagehot)

• When investors are used to a certain level of return on investments and can’t attain it, they are inclined to take more risks (Bagehot). (This could be the fuel for several blowups we are bound to see in a high rate environment)

• When Britain expanded its rail network by 50% in 1865, lot of capital was wasted in the investment mania. Contractors were paid in bonds and bills and dumped them and rates went up

• Panics don’t destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it was already destroyed in unproductive ventures

• During a crisis, central bank must lend against high-quality collateral for the shortest possible term (lender of last resort concept started with Bagehot, 1876. It was first used though to finance the boom in stock market between 1924-1928 when bank credit doubled with interest set at half of the growth rate - 4% interest against 8% growth)

• More skyscrapers went up in the 1920s than in any other decade in the century

• 1928 Moody’s declared stock prices had ‘over-discounted anticipated progress’. “Discounting the future” had become a buzzword

• During a single week by end of 1927, more shares changed hands in a week than in any week in exchange’s history. Broker loans went up 30% in the year. Rates went up from 3.5% to 5% in July ‘28 but it was barely enough as markets went up another 30% by Aug ‘29. Higher rates reversed flow of funds and money from Germany and Britain flooded US and both had to raise rates (Not very dissimilar now)

• Keynes was very confident in 1929 saying market was very appealing and prices were too low. The greatest attempt at price stability though resulted in the Great Depression (Keynes got the great depression so wrong its unbelievable)

• There’s nothing so unstable as a stable price level (John Grant, 2014)

• Gold standard regulated interest rates automatically. Whenever spending and investment exceeded income and savings, gold left the country and central bankers were forced to raise rates

• Gold Exchange Standard (more elastic) vs Gold Standard - govt. securities, alongside gold were considered reserves. This led to credit imbalances lasting longer as rates were no longer determined just by bullion flows.

• Central banks targeting price stability to avoid both deflation and inflation originated with Wicksell. He suggested Central banks work together to achieve this (hence ECB, BOJ, RBI all following suit to what Fed does)

• Attempts to avoid a good deflation only make a bad deflation more likely (Hayek). Deflation restores the health of the monetary system (Schumpeter). Good deflation arises from productivity improvements, bad deflation from a credit bust

• When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure (Goodhart’s Law)

• Inflation in financial assets is a better measure than consumer prices. Japan missed the mess it created because it kept rates low in the 80s and 90s in the absence of inflation (Fed did the same mistake in 1920s)

• Greenspan created the 90s bubble keeping interest rates lower than growth which ended when the fed funds rate rose to 7% in 2000. He created another in 2003 keeping rates at 1% (EMs like India saw the golden period of this profligacy)

• Lower and lower interest rates are needed in a debt supercycle to sustain the volume of debt. This makes it impossible to raise rates as raising with result in a debt trap

• Low interest rates in the US spurred massive flows of yield chasing money across borders. Foreign central banks, printed money in local currency and increased their reserves of treasures to prevent their currencies from appreciating. Thus raising rates threatens globalisation with an epoch-defining seismic rupture

• The great depression propelled productivity improvements across everything from warehousing to airlines

• The riches of a nation can be measured by the violence of the crises it experiences

• Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell

• Monetary policy cannot be a substitute for political and economic reforms essential for survival of a single currency (Eurozone)

• Bad money drives out good (Gresham’s law). Adverse selection - Loss-making Japanese firms enjoyed better bank credit than profitable ones (Money chased loss-making fintechs instead of steel mills and fertilizer factories)

• Unicorns feed on interest rates, the tinier the better

• Recessions induce a shakeout of less efficient firms, inducing works to relocate between businesses (Mild recessions dont do this)

• US capital stock declined and grew rusty despite low interest rates. Most capital chased financialization and spurious growth (like buybacks, mergers). Low interest rates → low investment → falling productivity

• Fed’s dual mandate is that of arsonist and fireman

• The rentier state is a state of parasitic, decaying capitalism

• Cartels tend to form when rates are low and breakup when they are high

• Rising industry concentration was associated with higher pay for senior execs, decline in worker’s bargaining power and falling investment and R&D

• From the turn of the century cost of debt was held below cost of equity - this funding gap provides impetus for buybacks (it works against long-term investment) and mergers ($7 trillion of goodwill sits on companys’ balance sheets)

• Growth in a country’s financial system is a drag on real productivity growth (manufacturing and R&D is starved of credit). Even companies like John Deere (1/3rd of rev in lending) and GE took up to financialization (GE Capital and 100 quarters of consecutive earnigns growth under Welch). Only 1 in 10 workers was employed in industry. 50% was in FIRE (finance, insurance, real-estate)

• Apply a discount rate of zero and you arrive at an infinite valuation (under ZIRP/NIRP regime). Bulls/Bears ratio was highest in decades, so was house prices/rent. Manias resulted from hyperbolic discounting in concept stocks and ICOs and several non-income generating assets like gold, vintage cars, contemporary art and cryptos (the everything bubble)

• Life is a struggle for energy and capital was really a form of stored energy

• Financial repression - holding short-term rates below rate of inflation (negative real rate)

• Savings in US and UK are very low because of decades of very low interest rates which disincentivised saving

• The Great Depression kicked off a multi-decade decline in inequality (Great Compression). The Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell bubbles have increase inequality to levels never seen before across the world. Over 3/4th of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and middle class declined across developed world

• Elite overproduction - $1.5 trillion in student debt and yet 40% of graduates were underemployed as they couldn’t find work that matched education level (Only China seems to have cracked vocational training at scale)

• Duration risk - Fixed income bonds exposed to future change in interest rates (Pension liabilities at risk)

• Carry trades have asymmetric risk - lot of small gains with exposure to sudden major losses (nickels in front of steamrollers). They tend to blow up after periods of easy money when leverage and other risks pile up

• The notion that negative yielding bonds denominated in a fiat currency were deemed “safe” assets belongs in the next edition of Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds

• There is no such thing as liquidity of investment for the community as a whole (Keynes)

• When insurance rates are set too low, people build houses on flood plains (When volatility is managed and rates set too low, people take inordinate amount of risks)

• Cheap trade credit encouraged firms to construct longer and longer supply chains, which in turn reduced price of traded good (Biggest risk to globalisation from higher rates is this). A feedback loop thus exists between globalization and interest rates (cuts both ways)

• Fed’s mandate of inflation and employment doesn’t consider impact on foreign currencies and countries (power without responsibility)

• China’s massive purchases of US treasuries put downward pressure on US long-term interest rates (China dumping treasures is causing it to rise now)

• Capital gets misallocated in China on a scale not seen since the heydey of the Soviet Union (Evergrande ran up liabilities that were 3% of GDP. China has 50% of global corp debt)

• An economy that can’t grow faster than its interest costs is said to have entered a ‘debt trap’

• Evergreening is a common practice in China where short-term uncollectible debt gets swapped for (uncollectable) long-dated debt (US govt does no better). When losses don’t show up in financial institutions balance sheets, they do so via slowing growth and deflation (and China exports deflation by dumping its goods onto the world)

• As long as yield on govt bonds was held below level of inflation, over time national debt could be inflated away (Financial repression is how war debts were inflated away post WW2)

• Central planning doesn’t work (its essentially communist than capitalist). Yet, capitalist economies rely on central banks to set rates (Hayek). An economy in which risk is socialised is no longer Capitalist

• Inequality can be good (grows the pie and incentivises those that improve their lot) or bad (rent-seeking and causes stagnation). What we have is the latter

• Low-rate thinking has percolated into everything from investor thinking, market forecasts, inflation expectations, valuation models, leverage ratios, debt ratings, affordability metrics, housing prices and corp. behavior. Truncated downside volatility, forestalling business failures has given wrong impression of risk having gone into hibernation (Seth Klarman)

• Interest rates are to value of assets what gravity is to matter (Buffett)

• When inflation returned after the war, treasury yields rose for next 3.5 decades. If globalisation reverses and China’s workforce declines, same thing could happen now

Interest and capitalism are inseparable. Interest rates are required to direct the allocation of capital and without it, we cannot value investments. We are in a crucial juncture where there could be a paradigm shift and we must understand the open possibilities and implications well - for even if the probabilities of such possibilities occurring are low, the implications are so huge that it threatens the world as know it. This is a very well researched and well written book and deserves a read if finance and economics is your thing. 10/10

[Rationalinvestor]

@phreakv6

1923 chicken weighed 2.2 pounds in 16 weeks. ‘33 it was 2.7 pounds in 14 weeks. ‘43 it was 3 pounds in 12 weeks. ‘73 it was down to 8.5 weeks! Chicken of today does it in 5 weeks (Fed a standard calibrated diet in a dark pen and not allowed to waste energy venturing out - capitalism at its finest)

wow!!! nice explainer about this wonderful book, looking ahead to read …

[sougataG]

This is a wonderful book and highly recommend it to everyone. I had read it a few months back. But lack the discipline of Phreakv6 to write these wonderful summaries. Thank you for writing it.

[rankamoksh]

loved the summary, will definitely read it.

[Apurva_Dubey]

The Curious Economics of Luxury Fashion: Millennials, Influencers and a Pandemic [Donald N. Thompson, 2021]

This book gives a very good overview of the fashion industry, especially the luxury fashion segment. The luxury fashion world is experiencing a massive change because of millennial and Gen-Z culture, increasing influence of social media, and of course the pandemic. Prior to 2020, that fashion world was making a slow and painful transition from being designer-driven to consumer-driven but pandemic has accelerated that transition.

Here are my notes –

WHAT IS THIS ‘LUXURY FASHION’?

• Over two decades, high fashion went from an industry of family-run businesses to one where conglomerates LVMH, Kering and Richemont, and two independent brands, Hermès and Chanel, controlled 40 percent of the (as of 2022) $350 billion market for personal luxury goods.

• After the 2020 pandemic, these five became even more dominant as independent luxury and premium players fell by the wayside.

• Fashion is in most ways a fragmented industry. There are many product categories, many customer groups, the three conglomerates but also several thousand small fashion houses.

• There are two very different levels of high-end fashion labels, usually referred to as luxury and premium. Below those two levels are accessible and fast fashion.

• Luxury apparel may be haute couture—personally tailored and based on a runway design. Or it may be ready-to-wear, called ‘prêt-à-porter’.

• Apparel is for a luxury house the ‘brand-defining core category’, but apparel produces little profit—because of the high cost of advertising and runway shows, and because so much inventory remains unsold at the end of a season.

• Financial analysts consider too much dependence of a luxury label on apparel sales a drag on a house’s profitability and share value. For fashion conglomerates LVMH and Kering, apparel is only about 10% of sales—and less than that of profits. The money-spinners are their handbags, shoes, accessories and fragrances.

• Luxury fashion, art, and religion are similar. Each is concerned with timelessness; each emphasizes a creator and a founding myth and legend. Each uses storytelling to maintain mystique. Each has symbols and icons recognized by followers. Each has its urban cathedrals, a museum or an elegant flagship store or art dealer.

• Luxury advertising never mentions price or product attributes, and never uses superlatives or invites comparison with competitors.

• The dilemma faced by luxury fashion labels is how to grow sales in a mature market without violating the perception of scarcity. Rolls Royce once released a press statement claiming that each year it produces only one more car than the year before.

• Rolex sells three million watches each year. It represents luxury because the brand has managed to maintain its image of quality, exclusivity—and perceived scarcity.

• Luxury brands invest to maintain control of the full supply chain, from the crocodile farm to store décor

ARNAULT AND INNOVATION

• Arnault started his career is real state but switched to fashion after a cab driver in New York told him that Christian Dior is the president of France

• LVMH’s is second only to Royal Dutch Shell as the most valuable firm in the European Union

• Louis Vuitton is the largest luxury fashion brand in the world. It accounted for a quarter of LVMH’s sales and almost half its profit.

• According to BrandZ rankings, LV is the most valuable luxury brand label, worth $47 billion. Chanel is the second most valuable luxury brand label at $37 billion, and Hermès Paris is third at $31 billion.

HERMÈS: TRADITION AND ARTISANSHIP

• “The luxury industry is built on a paradox; the more desirable the brand becomes, the more it sells; the more it sells, the less desirable it becomes. As soon as a product sells too much, we discontinue it.”

• Fashion writers regularly name Hermès as “the most admired company in luxury fashion.”

• Hermès is also very profitable: the company’s 2021 sales were estimated at €8.4 billion ($9.6 billion), and the net profit €3.4 billion ($3.9 billion).

• Hermès is the polar opposite from LVMH in its luxury fashion philosophy and adherence to tradition. The firm is not a conglomerate enterprise with a portfolio of firms and labels. It is a portfolio of products, offered under a single label.

• The most cited example of company artisanship is the production process for a high-level Birkin or Kelly handbag. A single artisan performs all steps stamps their initials and the date inside the completed bag, as an artist might sign a painting or sculpture.

• Birkin and Kelly handbags contribute 25 and 30 percent of Hermès sales and as much as half the houses’ profit

• The long-held belief in the world of luxury fashion is that reliance on celebrities to promote products is a sign of potential brand weakness. Hermès follows the ‘no celebrities, no paid endorsements’ rule more than any other fashion house.

• The waiting list for a high-end Birkin or Kelly is six to nine months.

PREMIUM FASHION

• Premium labels typically sell for 40 to 60 percent the price level of luxury brands. They are occasionally discounted—but much less often than accessible brands.

• As a group, premium fashion firms lose money.

• In 2019 the top ten luxury or premium fashion companies sold more than the next 90—combined. Just 20 companies earned 90 percent of the profits in the luxury and premium fashion sectors.

ACCESSIBLE FASHION

• The third fashion segment is known as the ‘accessible’. This does not fit easily into a discussion of high-end fashion.

• Accessible labels are attractive to millennials, and their design and price points exert on the premium market.

FAST FASHION

• There is a fourth segment, known as fast fashion. It is the largest by far, both in unit volume and dollar sales.

• The fast fashion labels—think of Zara, H&M or Uniqlo—have expanded because of their design quality combined with value positioning—‘chic, not cheap’—and the millennial acceptance of mixing and matching fashion labels in one outfit.

• In 2019 Zara had sales of $25 billion, H&M had $26 billion, and Uniqlo had $23 billion.

• Zara and H&M in particular put time pressure on high-end labels. They can reproduce a well-reviewed runway fashion from a telecast or photographs and have those designs in stores well before the ready-to-wear arm of the fashion house that created the garment.

• Fast-fashion firms force fashion designers at all levels work to a shorter fashion cycle and an accelerated manufacturing schedule.

HAUTE COUTURE AND THE RUNWAY

• The clothes a designer sends out onto the runway are worthless unless they increase the sales of handbags, sunglasses and perfume.

• There are only a “few hundred” clients in the world who buy direct from haute couture shows. They include Middle Eastern royalty and American professional women.

• Haute couture roughly translates as ‘high dressmaking’ or ‘high sewing’. The term has roots in 19th century French fashion, when wealthy women had dresses with hand stitching and multiple fittings.

• Prêt-à-porter (ready-to-wear), by comparison, refers to factory-made clothing sold in finished form and in standard sizes.

MILLENNIAL INFLUENCE

• “What was not expected was the structural transformations in the market, the rise of millennials, which had, on average, represented around 30 percent of the market. Suddenly, within two to three years, it went from 30 to more than 50 percent” (François-Henri Pinault, CEO of Kering)

• Millennials and Gen-Z, have become the most important segment of the fashion world—and the Chinese cohort are the largest and now the most important part of that demographic. The segment for represents ~65 percent of sales.

• For generations, two things have marked a fashion brand as luxury: artisanship and exclusivity. Millennials are not very interested in those attributes.

• They are also less impressed with the outward display of traditional, brand-based status. They seek fashion that reflects their identity and is an extension of themselves and their values. What motivates them is a sense of expression, seeking new experiences that match their lifestyle. Another difference from their parents is that they do not see status as a zero-sum game; for them to have more, it is not necessary for someone else to have less.

• Millennials seek social and economic status in a different way than did their predecessors. Experiential purchases reinforced their status in the same way that high-end fashion or art did for previous generations.

• Millennial values are at odds with many of the traditional practices of luxury fashion. Most millennials see runway shows, glossy print luxury goods advertising, seasonal collections, high prices, glittering flagship stores and high-markup department stores as either uncool or irrelevant.

• The strangest example of millennial interests and values changing the world comes not from fashion but from Olympic sports. The 2020 the Summer Olympics—later postponed to 2021—added skateboarding to its medal competitions. The IOC is adding break dancing to the Paris summer games in 2024.

• In 2021 Louis Vuitton Men’s offered a skate trunk and skateboard set. These were inspired by street boarders, but not intended for them; the set was priced at $58,000. Hermès, Celine, Gucci and Saint Laurent all now offer their own branded skate decks.

• The practice of drip-feeding product in limited quantities began in Japan, and was adopted in the west by streetwear labels like Supreme. European luxury houses have embraced drops because they resonate with millennial consumers.

THE STREETWEAR REVOLUTION

• “Fashion has flipped. People in power like Mark Zuckerberg wear jeans and people with less status wear suits.”

• Streetwear had its origin in the 80s and 90s, first as a niche market built on skateboards and hip-hop. The core products were sneakers, unisex T-shirts and hoodies.

• Streetwear has become a growth category for Louis Vuitton and other fashion labels, especially post pandemic

• Streetwear promised LV and other luxury houses access to a millennial market, and to high margins. Balenciaga offered hoodies, T-shirts and sneakers. One of their best-selling lines is Triple S sneakers.

FASHION COOL AND THE TIPPING POINT

• “Cool is the highest value in modern society, shaping consumption, politics and parenting” (Vanessa Brown)

• Fashion commentators sometimes use the Italian term sprezzatura, meaning ‘studied ease’.

• Marlon Brando’s appearance in the 1953 movie The Wild One made the T-shirt acceptable dress in many settings. President John F. Kennedy went hatless in 1961 to every event, formal and not, which signaled to a generation of American males that hats were passé.

HANDBAGS TO IMPRESS

• For decades, handbags have driven profit for luxury fashion. In 2019 they accounted for more than a quarter of the sales of the firms in high fashion.

• For LV, handbags comprise 75 percent of revenue. At Prada it is 45, at Gucci 40, at Hermès 33.

• List prices average twelve times manufacturing cost at the luxury level, four to six times at the premium, and a bit less at the accessible level.

SNEAKER CULTURE

• Luxury sneakers are very profitable. Made with better-quality suede or leather than regular sneakers, the most expensive designer models may cost $40 to $50 to produce, but retail at six to ten times that amount.

• In 2020, Forbes reported that Kanye was earning $160 million a year pre-tax from YEEZY royalties (more than what Michael Jordan earned in royalties from Nike – $130 million)

CHINA

• Since 2008, China has moved from being a niche market to being the world’s second largest consumer of luxury goods, including fashion.

• European brands have historically cultivated the idea that they represent the ultimate in tradition, prestige and luxury. This makes them more sought after than American brands.

• Online accounts for a greater proportion of total retail sales—and fashion sales—in China than in any other country.

• Chinese concept of ‘Mianzi’—the importance of maintaining self-esteem, reputation, and social status.

• The Communist Party flip-flops in its tolerance for luxury. In 2012 the city government in Beijing banned the advertising of luxury goods on billboards and in print ads.

ESG

• “Sustainability is the new definition of quality. It is inherent to luxury. That is the new normal.”

• In 2020 the US banned cotton imports from the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corp., a paramilitary organization that is one of China’s largest cotton producers. The ban came over the alleged use of forced Uyghur labor. The Xinjiang area accounts for 20 percent of global cotton supply.

• The oil industry is the most polluting in the world. The fashion industry and the textile production for it, is second.

• Luxury fashion house often burn whatever goes unsold. Burberry’s 2017/18 annual report stated that the “cost of finished goods physically destroyed in the year was $37 million to maintain brand value.”

• In 2020 when Chanel issued a $700 million sustainability-linked bond on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. The bonds carry a slightly below-market interest rate, but offer holders a large penalty payment if the issuer does not meet stated green goals during the life of the bond

Cambridge Analytica, Trump, Fashion

• Cambridge Analytica gained fame and notoriety by harvesting the data of millions of individuals and used it in the 2016 Trump presidential campaign.

• A significant part of their research focused on fashion, and on how an individual’s stylistic and aesthetic preferences predicted how susceptible they were to right-wing political ideas.

• Those with preferences for brands such as Kenzo were not targeted (the Kenzo label was one of the first to use multicultural runway models)

• Similarly, those who liked Alexander McQueen, Louis Vuitton and Stella McCartney were assumed as being strong Democratic supporters. Their Facebook ads did not target users who preferred these brands.

• “We exploited the cultural narratives that the fashion and culture industry put out”

• Cambridge Analytica’s research director moved on to become the research director at H&M

FARFETCH

• Farfetch is an e-commerce company focused on luxury fashion.

• It’s 2018 IPO valued the company at $5 billion. At that number, it was one of the most highly valued fashion companies in the world.

• The market placed an unexpectedly high valuation on the potential for Farfetch’s strategy.

• Its valuation of five times previous-year sales should be compared to a typical fashion retailer that would go public (pre-pandemic) with an IPO at 1.2 times sales.

• Clearly, Farfetch didn’t live up to its hype

DEATH BY AMAZON AND AI

• “Amazon acts as kryptonite for conventional retailers serving millennials; it just has to get close enough to their product mix to have its effect felt.”

• Amazon is the largest private label fashion provider, and the great looming threat to existing premium brands—particularly after brand failures that resulted from the 2020.

• 70 percent of the ‘word searches’ done on Amazon are generic: ‘running shoes’ or ‘party dress’. The generic query allows Amazon to offer its private-label products on the first screen.

• Bespoke Investment Group has been tracking 54 retail stocks since 2012 known as their ‘Death by Amazon’ share index. Between February 2012 and October 2020, Amazon’s value rose 640 percent, while the S&P index rose 105 percent. The Death by Amazon index grew just 41 percent.

LUXURY FASHION AFTER COVID-19

• Pre-pandemic luxury brands had 5 to 15 percent of their worldwide sales in airport boutiques, a large portion of these to Chinese tourists.

• Luxury houses responded quite differently to the pandemic – they continuously increased the prices from May 2020 onwards. Whereas the premium brands were lowering list prices or discounting.

• Resale of previously owned fashion flourished during the pandemic. Bain & Co. estimated the 2021 world’s luxury resale market at €33 billion ($38 billion). A few major luxury brands that had previously shunned the second-hand market, now embraced it both to offload excess inventory and to offer lower entry price points.

• After most tragic periods, from the Black Death to the Second World War, there followed a period of exuberant fashion

[mahesh_s]

Hi there,

It is incredible to see the amount of books you consume. You probably get this a lot, but please share how you manage work and reading books? What do you do?

Warm regards,
Mahesh

[Mudit.Kushalvardhan]

On a lighter note…He must be a librarian.

[kdjolly]

He is a polymath. Wears many hats. Every word he writes, every stock research, he has done, is top notch.
And not to forget his taste in Music, and his Guitar skills.
I don’t have enough words to describe him.

[phreakv6]

Hey, I am not currently working and I think I am at this point unemployable/retired (am 41). When I used to work, I was a consultant (‘06-‘21), so had ample time to do my things on the side, reading being one of them. Even when I had a rare full-time job (‘21-‘22) I managed to maintain the pace of reading. It’s not that hard to put aside an hour or two per day to read. It’s an investment in yourself and it can be a lot of fun watching yourself visibly grow year on year.

I am always baffled that people are happy with the knowledge and skills they got out of college and the first few years at work and are pretty much done with it and closed to learning. I am equally baffled that all learning should be towards some end goal - like how it will affect your CAGR, or social standing or some other tangible gain like a degree or certificate. Learning is joyous and reading the perfect way to pick brains of people who otherwise would have no interest to sit with you or are long dead. Also books have durable knowledge (most others sources deal with information that’s relevant for near-term)

You have to first cultivate the interest and nurture your curiosity to learn about various things, phenomena, people, places and times and be ready to go down rabbit holes to sate that curiosity. I can’t imagine reading some of the books i read now when I started out. I would have snored right through the first paragraph but the stuff I read prior to what I am reading now has set the latticework for the stuff am reading now to be relevant and even thoroughly enjoyable.

Start reading whatever interests you - if you have kids get them started as well on whatever interests them. It could be comics, simple fiction, literary classics or whatever floats your boat. Once the habit is formed, the cue → routine → reward loop will take over and you are set for life. This thread started as a part of the “reward” loop - being able to review a book and put it out closed the loop. But of late, I am reading lot more than I am reviewing (almost a 15-20 book gap now) because I have started the painful note-taking process which takes 6-8 hours at least per book (lot of thinking, recollecting and ruminating involved). Now that the habit loop is sustaining without the reward, I have been able to tweak it to add extremely hard business of note-taking. I see this as a creation of durable knowledge of my own - for myself in the future, for discussing with my son (9 now) and for the rest of the world that can benefit from it. Everything we strive to create must be relevant over the years

I know this is a very roundabout answer to a direct question but there are no direct answers - if you are not able to make time, then reading is probably not a priority for you right now. Making it a priority should be your first priority.

[Girish_K]

What’s your opinion on reading physical copy vs ebooks ?

[Deven]

Hello @phreakv6,

Thanks. In the past, I asked you for your top book recommendations, and you provided valuable insights. I’m curious, do you also watch videos? If so, which is your your favorite YouTube channel or any other video platform?

[mahesh_s]

That is cool, i mean very very cool! Especially the point about continuous learning.

Fully agree with your point on the type of book one can read. For instance, I tried reading “Wings of fire” by APJ Kalam in 9th standard (father insisted). That flew right over my head. Couldn’t even read 20 pages! I like what Naval Ravikant said about this. “A book is a conversation between the author and the reader. When the reader doesn’t like the book, it may not be bad, it is just that either the reader or the author is not ready for the conversation”. I am probably more receptive to Wings of Fire today (although I am yet to pick it up again).

I have been reading consistently from 2020 but nowhere close to your pace!

I have slowed down on purpose to improve retention. I re-read a few books that I thought I forgot. Also started taking notes and making highlights to further improve retention. Sharing these notes I am taking currently from “Common stocks and Uncommon profits”. Although i am still looking for a more efficient way of taking notes.

You’re awesome!

Warm regards,
Mahesh

[Mudit.Kushalvardhan]

The most important learning i took from Phil Fisher is his morning walks with very high speed. Almost Like J. Krishnamurty . I have also started fast paced walks. Also those walks should be alone…So i started avoiding my regular group…And it was really refreshing. You get to know many clarities and your health also improves.