As I said earlier, I am not looking at PE levels. But yes my stop loss is quite strict. These stocks, as you said, may correct 50% or even by 80% but I wont be there that time as I would have left at 20% below ATH or below 20 week EMA, so I am not worried about PE ratio as well as Margin of safety.
Do you use screener also to look for scripts in stage 2 or marksmith or momoscreener only
Or any screener criteria you developed
Rightnow momoscreener and marketsmith… Screener i use for fundamental analysis.
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Hi,
Interesting to see you experimenting with so many tools to get more out of the Momentum Investing/Trading strategy.
Wondering how a RRG (Relative Rotation Graph) tool might fit in. A stock in the Leading quadrant of RRG tool is supposed to display both better Comparative Relative Strength and Momentum.
Has anyone on this forum tried momoindiascreener with RRG ?
Just thinking out loud.
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Good morning…
One learning today I realised, would like to share with you…
Time frame is very important…If you change the timeframe, the whole game changes…
A stock which is looking like it’s breaking out on daily time frame, may be the extended one on weekly chart and if you are a long term investor or positional trader, then its better to stick to weekly time frame for entry rather than adopting daily time frame.
If your all decisions are going to be as per weekly time frame, then better to follow it while entry too…many people think, for precise entry, you need to see daily chart…but it will distort the perspective
One example which I myself did a mistake…
Stocks name is Fluidom
I entered looking at daily chart, thinking it’s breaking out…
See this daily chart…my entry is green horizontal line…
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But on weekly chart, it’s clearly a very extended level, so by looking at daily chart, I got wrong perspective and my entry got wrong…
See this weekly chart:point_down:
Pretty good example, one can use momentum to screen stocks but then going through each chart is a must. Plus this is a super micro cap which are 95% of the time pump and dump stories so better not include it in a momentum portfolio.
I have recently built a simple momentum screener, and it’s like this. Ranked stocks based on % returns of EMA6m, EMA3m and EMA1m instead of absolute returns. This is to account for peaks and troughs which happened 6M back or are happening now.
Do you see any issues with this screener?
Here is the list of top 15 stocks.
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@Ascendant It seems good. Mostly same stocks I am getting at Momoscreener. Keep it up.
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How has your revamped portfolio performed vs the earlier one? Would be great to understand how both approaches performed in draw down
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Which two?? If you are talking of very old one with which I started this thread, then its performance is very bad. I have checked all the stocks performance in last 2 years and 4 months, and mostly all stocks have underperformed nifty in a big way. Since I dont maintain any model portfolio, I cant compare its performance in exact downtime period.
Very convincing Video for Gold Investing…
@Cshar , @ChaitanyaC , @Investor_No_1 , any views guys?
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I get emails from his service from time to time, some of which are about gold.
I don’t think this is a debatable thing, in the sense that, it is a different asset class with its own properties, literally and figuratively, and limitations. I think the only question is the expectation from it if invested in it or the opportunity cost of investing in it and seeing it not perform or not perform as much as expected, while equity is performing good.
I don’t know about all of this data, but I did choose it, so I share the same opinion.
@ChaitanyaC How much % of gold you hold in portfolio? Alok jain says , it has to be above 20-25% to have any meaningful effect on overall portfolio
Hi Mudit
Though global macro’s are too complex to predict, here is what i see going forward. Ukraine war is going to end as US has freezed arm sale. Russian oil sanctions will be lifted sooner than later. Despite russian sanctions crude is unable to go above 75 USD. USA will pitch India to buy crude from US oil producers. As a whole outlook on crude is bleak and Saudi Arabia understands this well reason they are diversifying very fast. I see crude oil going down to level of 50 USD going forward. USA balance sheet is going to shrink if Elon Musk start DOGE implementations which logically should weaken the USD. Only safe heaven in currency and commodities remains GOLD. all central banks knows this very well hence its getting accumulated, also silver. There are some talks on digital dollar which will be eventually linked to gold. Any attempt by USA to shrink balance sheet will see outflow from US treasury and bond yields will tighten which prompts to higher interest rates hence US is stuck in catch 22 situation for 38 Trillion mess they have created with a fake currency. I am amused if United states has a total asset base of 38 trillion, leave apart market capitalization of US equities. All in all above reasons are well known, reason being China which holds more than 1 T in US treasury is investing in US real state now reducing its exposure. China central bank is accumulating gold heavily, RBI got it’s reserve from UK.
Just my thoughts.
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@Cshar , Considering above macros, are you going to put a sizable portion of your portfolio in Gold, as suggested by Alok Jain, may be around 25% and also if into silver?
As I can see, from 2012 to 2018, Gold chart has been flat, consolidating, with almost zero returns…What is to be done for such periods? Just buying Gold and forgetting it, can it be sensible? Or we have to actively monitor it to avoid such flat patches by moving capital out of it and then again re-entering it , thus taking strategic calls…
Nobody sells gold in India:joy:
. Its always accumulated and kept in locker for rainy days. Buying a real estate, a piece of land will be a better option than gold as far as indian dynamics are concerned, real estate looks better option to me, only land investment, no flats.
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I am not looking at gold in % terms, but allocating to it from time perspective. I want to accumulate it to the extent possible, not because of macros but to diversify and lessen the volatility/risk of equity, as it is increasing at regular intervals, thanks to the bull market.
As we know that the value of any tradable thing goes down with less number of buyers, and I don’t think that will happen to gold anytime soon. I would not even mind if value goes down by 10%. So I am more than happy to buy some when I can.
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@Mudit.Kushalvardhan Thanks for checking. I think I had shared my views on gold in some thread sometime back. The only point I strongly agree is that Gold helps when everything else in country including governance is gone. This is an extreme event when markets will be shut closed, banks would be closed and in such a circumstance I am not sure if paper gold would do any good. If exchanges are closed, how would one sell their Gold ETFs and bonds?
Leaving aside such extreme events and God forbid no country sees it, the other comparisons done, although seems in good intent but seems to have a catch, like - Gold is being compared with the most basic index of all country. I do not follow other countries much but in India NIFTY 50 is most basic index and most investors who are keen on equities, including myself, look at other indexes, other strategies, direct stock picking etc. I am not saying that they all, including me, would end up doing better than the indexes (or Gold) but inside us, that is the intent.
So, I would agree that if someone wishes to invest in most basic index, they can consider replacing a part of it with Gold, but we cannot generalize this with overall Equity investing.
No doubt Gold seems the least risk option and Equities always carry the risk of stagnation (Japan example) so it should be an informed decision.
Personally, I feel Gold is an ornament which can be of good use in times of need in physical form. It must be present in small value for people to use and enjoy as an ornament & safe to keep. Regarding Paper gold, it anyways may not be of much use when exchanges are closed but can form a fine place as part of most basic index investing allocation, if an investor wants that in his/her portfolio.
Disc: Views are only for learning purposes. Not eligible for any advice. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Not much knowledge on Gold and/or Index investing. I can be wrong in all my assessments.
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The Portfolio that I shared on 5th January. Just did some analysis… If i would have continued holding it in same proportion…If I multiply those weights with the drawdown in individual scripts from 5th January till today (28th January), I would have lost around 24% as an aggregate on total portfolio value.
Fortunately I came in cash 100% ( transferred in liquid funds) . I came out at negative 8% from my All time High Value of portfolio.
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